Men's French Open Draw Thoughts

 It's weird to be near the end of September, yet we still have a major to go. And it's even weirder that this major is the French Open, typically played in May and June. But that's the 2020 tennis season in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. So, let's see where the French Open takes us! Will Rafael Nadal win his 13th French Open? Read on to find out!

Get ready for some (surely incorrect) predictions.

Note: the full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Rafael Nadal Wins the French Open Again

I had to get this one out of the way and I won't spend too much time on it, don't want to waste y'alls time saying stuff y'all already know. Nadal has quintessential clay court game. There's very few people in the draw that can beat him, so it's pointless to go through match-by-match. 

For Rafa, it's important that he conserves his energy ahead of what could be a brutal final two matches of the tournament if he faces Thiem in the semifinals and Djokovic in the final. And there's no one in Rafa's quarter that could challenge him too much at this point. 

Fognini in the round of 16 could be tricky, but he hasn't been close to his old self since his surgery during the pandemic. And Zverev in the quarterfinals could theoretically be tough, but does anyone really think that Nadal isn't going to take full advantage of Zverev's serving issues?

While the heavier conditions of the fall do not suit Nadal's game, it is very hard to pick against him in this tournament.

2. Denis Shapovalov Makes his First Grand Slam Semifinal

No, I didn't think a few months ago I would be predicting this either. But, I was really impressed by how Shapovalov played both at the US Open and then on the clay in Rome. Shapovalov's rally tolerance is at the best I've ever seen it, which is a really good thing on clay. Will he be able to sustain that over multiple best-of-five matches? That remains to be seen.

The draw sets up well for Shapovalov, however. Simon, his first round opponent, has been completely out-of-form since the pandemic. Even on clay, in Simon's current form, expect Shapovalov to be able to hit through him. His second round opponent will probably be Roberto Carballes Baena. Very solid clay court, but he has nothing to really hurt Shapovalov with from either his serve or his baseline game.

Shapovalov just beat Dimitrov, the other seeded opponent in his mini-section, in Rome and I would expect a similar result in this one. In the round of 16, he would potentially play Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, Tsitsipas was very weak in his Rome loss to Sinner, and even today in Hamburg against Cuevas, he was not convincing in his victory. 

Tsitsipas just doesn't have the depth and placement that he had last season during the clay court swing. And Tsitsipas has a very tough potential third round match against Filip Krajinovic. Shapovalov has won his only meeting with Krajinovic and whoever wins that battle between Tsitsipas and Krajinovic should be very tired. (My pick for a Tsitsipas vs Krajinovic match will be revealed later in this article!)

In the quarterfinals, Shapovalov might play Daniil Medvedev. However, clay is Medvedev's worst surface and he struggled in a straight-sets loss to Ugo Humbert in Hamburg this past week. Medvedev's flat ball-striking makes his life a little harder on the clay. Shapovalov also might play Andrey Rublev. However, Shapovalov leads the head to head 2-1 and has won each of the past two meetings against Rublev in straight sets.

Denis Shapovalov certainly has a path to a Grand Slam semifinal against, likely, Novak Djokovic.

3. Stefanos Tsitispas Goes Out in the First Week

Related to my previous point about Shapovalov, I am not convinced at all about Tsitsipas and think that the draw sets up quite poorly for him. I believe he loses before even getting the 

Tsitsipas lost 1-6, 7-6(9), 2-6 to Sinner last week and could not find his game at all. He won only 53% of his first serve points and 49% of his second serve points, hitting 7 double faults. Beating Dan Evans on clay and an older Pablo, Cuevas who really should have won the first set does not change my opinion that he is in trouble in Paris.

Tsitsipas plays Jaume Munar in the first round, who doesn't have the weapons to beat him, but his consistency from the baseline could tire Tsitsipas out. He will most likely get Pablo Cuevas in the second round,  and maybe this time Tsitsipas won't be able to get away with saving five break points that would have allowed Cuevas to serve for the first set.

Then, in the third round, it would be a war with (likely) Filip Krajinovic. Krajinovic is a very competent player and just beat Marco Cecchinato and Felix Auger-Aliassime in Rome before losing a close straight-setter to Novak Djokovic. 

Tsitsipas beat Krajinovic in a very tight four-set match at the French Open last year and it feels like Tsitsipas is playing worse tennis and Krajinovic is playing better tennis.

I think there's a very good shot that Tsitsipas is out in the first week.

4. Dominic Thiem Loses Early (For His Standards)

I know this is a popular opinion, but I really don't like Thiem's draw. Cilic's serving in Rome was at a high-level, but he certainly isn't a clay courter and Thiem just beat him in four sets at the US Open. Still, playing a grand slam champion with a serve like Cilic's in the first round is not ideal.

In the second round, Thiem might play Reilly Opelka. Opelka is a nightmare opponent, regardless of the surface, as he can take the racquet out of opponents' hands with his huge serve. In the third round, Thiem (if he gets to this point) will likely face Casper Ruud, who just made the semifinals of Rome and is in the quarterfinals of Hamburg currently. Ruud's heavy forehand is extremely dangerous on clay and Ruud is extremely fit. Thiem will have to work hard to win that one.

In the fourth round, Thiem might play former champion Stan Wawrinka, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or maybe even Andy Murray. None of these players are an easy out. Wawrinka, despite losing to Lorenzo Musetti in Rome, could easily serve well get hot from the baseline and punish Thiem with his huge forehand and one-handed backhand. Auger-Aliassime also has the ability to start serving huge and making sets tight with Thiem (although I'm more bullish on that possibility). And then Andy Murray I'm just mentioning out of respect, but he could make a match with Thiem very physical.

In the quarterfinals, it could be Diego Schwartzman for Thiem. Schwartzman has beaten Thiem a couple times in the past and was playing excellent tennis in Rome, making the final. This included a massive straight-sets victory over Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. That would not be easy, as Schwartzman's ability to take over the baseline, even though he is only 5 foot, 7 inches, is superb.

Thiem has made the final of Roland Garros the past two seasons (losing to Nadal both times), so it feels that any loss before the semifinals would be early. However, given how physical the end of the US Open was for Thiem combined with the mental fatigue of winning his first grand slam final, Thiem could be ripe for an upset in this tournament.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray

Yes, this is a very cliche choice, but I feel it would be disingenuous for me to put anything else. Wawrinka did not look great in Rome, but he's gotten a lot of matches on the clay and is a former French Open champion. Andy Murray, while he hasn't won Roland Garros, has won multiple other majors and is so hard to beat regardless of surface. Rally tolerance is so huge against Murray, who can get so many balls back and is one of the best counterpunchers in the game.

I really am unsure of how this match will go. A lot of it will come down to Wawrinka's first serve percentage. If he can control his service games with a big first serve, it would be very hard for Murray to win this match. Wawrinka also has been a little wild from the baseline since the pandemic, which would be a disaster against a consistent player like Murray. 

Another factor is whether or not Murray is physically ready for best-of-five on the most physical surface of them all: red clay.

If I had to choose, I would say Wawrinka wins in four sets. I'm not convinced Murray has what it takes to win a clay court Grand Slam match against a player of the caliber of Wawrinka. Wawrinka has a bit too much firepower for Murray at this stage of Murray's career.

Walking "Byes"

1. Cameron Norrie

Yes, this is a bigger name than you might have been expecting, and yes, I know Norrie is playing a qualifier. But, I just can't see Norrie winning given his current clay form. He's, quite frankly, been a disaster on clay since the restart.

Norrie lost to current World No. 320 Giulio Zeppieri in Rome qualifications, only winning four games. Then, in at the Forli Challenger, Norrie won a tight three-setter over current World No. 1052 Christian Harrison, who had to qualify to make the main draw. After his tight win over Harrison, he then lost to current World No. 346 Andrea Pellegrino in straight sets.

I just can't see Norrie winning a round in his current clay-form, regardless of which qualifier he plays.

2. Nikoloz Basilashvili

I know it's weird to have a seeded player as a walking bye, but this is the case with Basilashvili. Since the restart, Basilashvili has went 0-5, without even winning a set. This is understandable due to the domestic violence charge against him, which I will not get into, but that you can read about for yourself. 

Basilashvili has been very erratic from the baseline since tennis has come back and there's no reason for that to change with his upcoming first round match against Thiago Monteiro. 

Expect Basilashvili to lose again in the first round of the French Open.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Bautista Agut in 4

Shapovalov over Rublev in 5

Schwartzman over Ruud in 5

Nadal over Zverev in 3

Semifinals

Djokovic over Shapovalov in 4

Nadal over Schwartzman in 4

Final

Nadal over Djokovic in 4

Men's US Open Draw Thoughts

Well, we didn't know if this time would come. Back in March, everything on the tennis calendar was in doubt and it looked like the coronavirus pandemic might just take away the tennis season. But, we've made it here and the main draws for the women's and men's US Open have been released!

In this article, I examine the men's US Open draw, giving my thoughts and some predictions. I totally expect half of my semifinalists to be out by the third round.

That's how these things work.

Note: The full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Top Seeds Fall Early

This is probably common sense, but I would feel foolish not putting it in here. With the amount of time off for the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone's preparation for the US Open being different, it's very hard to judge form coming into this tournament. A single tournament ("Cincinnati") surely did not give us all of the details needed to judge players' forms.

So, this means that top seeds can vulnerable, especially those that have tough draws early. Despite success in Cincinnati this week, No. 8 Roberto Bautista Agut has to play the brick wall, Tennys Sandgren, in the first round. No. 7 seed David Goffin has to play Reilly Opelka in the first round. 

If these top 8 seeds are not playing at a high level early on, they could easily fall in these first round encounters, or in the subsequent round or two if they face a dangerous opponent. It's very hard to say, however, whether or not this will occur.

2. A Lot of Wild Cards Make it Past the First Round

A few of the wild cards for the US Open have favorable draws. (Note: this is the original wild card list). The draws for the wild cards in the first round are quite good. 

Michael Mmoh takes on Joao Sousa in the first round. Joao Sousa has been out-of-form and is vulnerable for the upset. Mitchell Krueger gets Pedro Sousa as his first round opponent. Pedro Sousa is a clay courter who has not played on hard courts much this season at all and retired from his last exhibition match with an injury.

Ulises Blanch is one of my favorite under-the-radar players. Has a massive serve and forehand and can overwhelm opponents with pace. He takes on Cristian Garin in the first round. Garin is best on clay and has a 1-6 record on hard courts this year. Blanch can certainly cause an upset. A potential second round matchup against Mikhail Kukushkin (who plays Attila Balazs in the first round) would be tough, but not the most difficult opponent he could have faced.

Brandon Nakashima is one of the most heralded young Americans and he has a winnable first round match against Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi was starting to look his age in the exhibition events I saw him play during the pandemic and Nakashima has a big advantage in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

JJ Wolf has Guido Pella in the first round, a player who has had to quarantine due to his trainer getting COVID-19. He hasn't spent much time recently on the practice court, a huge disadvantage with the the best-of-five format at the US Open. Wolf has a realistic chance to make the second round too, with a potential matchup against Roberto Carballes Baena or Feliciano Lopez. Carballes Baena is by-far best on clay and Lopez is 38 years-old and who knows if his fitness is at a level where he can win consecutive best-of-five matches at this point in his career.

Finally, Maxime Cressy, one of the most controversial players from the ATP Challenger Tour,  has a favorable first round draw against Josef Kovalik. Kovalik is a clay courter who has barely played on hard courts all season. This is a perfect chance for Cressy to frustrate Kovalik with his huge serve-and-volley game. A win would also most likely give Cressy a chance to see how his game measures up against young ATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. 

That would be fun.

3. Stefanos Tsitsipas Makes a Second Major Semifinal

I think that the draw sets up really well for Tsitsipas to make the semifinals. A first rounder against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who lost all four exhibition matches during the pandemic (on clay) and is yet to win a set in two meetings with Tsitsipas is not threatening to the Greek.

It would seem that Tsitsipas is getting more comfortable playing big servers. His time competing against players like Anderson, Isner, Opelka, and Raonic will serve him well against (potentially) Cressy in the second round. Cressy might get under Tsitsipas' skin with his antics, but Tsitsipas will get enough returns and passing shots to give the American fits.

Borna Coric is the seed in his mini-section. Coric had coronavirus, so who knows how his body will react to the best-of-five format. His results in general (exhibition and "Cincinnati") have not been promising post-coronavirus. In addition, he doesn't really have anything in his game to hurt Tsitsipas with.

The top seeds in the other section are Cristian Garin and Dusan Lajovic. Garin, as I've mentioned, is best on clay and I think has a real shot to lose to Blanch in the first round. Lajovic had a lot of success earlier this year at ATP Cup and the Australian Open, but has struggled mightily lately. Dating back to Lajovic's loss to Soon-woo Kwon in Acapulco, including exhibitions, Lajovic has lost his last seven matches. I don't have confidence in him to make a run right now. 

A player like Jordan Thompson could make Tsitsipas play a physical match in the round of 16, but I believe that Tsitsipas would eventually overpower him.

In the quarterfinals, it would potentially be a matchup with Alexander Zverev. I'm not convinced, with Zverev's serving woes, that he could even make it to the last eight with Tsitsipas. Other seeded players on the other side of the quarter include Diego Schwartzman, who wasn't great in Cincinnati, and Hubert Hurkacz, who's been struggling to find his game recently, and Adrian Mannarino, who looked very rusty in his loss to Millman at the Western & Southern Open.

I feel very confident thinking that Tsitsipas will be a semifinalist at the US Open, taking another big step in his blooming career.

4. Novak Djokovic Wins Another US Open

Djokovic has done it three times before and without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the draw,  I feel confident that Djokovic can win a fourth US Open. Yes, the neck could become a concern, but Djokovic has looked very impressive at the Western & Southern Open since that first match against Ricardas Berankis.

The draw sets up very well for Djokovic. Thiem and Medvedev are on the other half and the seeded opponent in his mini-section is Jan-Lennard Struff, who Djokovic just beat comfortably in "Cincinnati". Djokovic could play John Isner in the fourth round, but Djokovic's game is centered around his return and Isner was a little below his normal level in "Cincinnati". 

The top-eight seed in his section, David Goffin, has (as I mentioned before) a brutal first round matchup against Reilly Opelka and doesn't have the game to outduel Djokovic from the baseline.

Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals would be very tough, but if Djokovic can make the semifinals, it would mean he is locked-in and I can't see Djokovic losing to Tsitsipas in the best-of-five format. Djokovic would eventually force too many errors from the Tsitsipas racquet.

In a final against Medvedev or Thiem, Djokovic would be able to outlast either, much like he did against Thiem in the Australian Open final earlier this season.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tennys Sandgren

We are going to see some fantastic baseline play in this one. Maybe it's my preference for baseliners compared to big-servers, but I am fascinated to see what happens in this one. Will Bautista Agut's long week at the Western & Southern Open affect his play in New York? He's certainly looked impenetrable from the baseline this past week. 

Sandgren made the second major quarterfinal of his career at the Australian Open this year. He's so hard for opponents to hit through and can counterpunch at such a high level. It will take a lot for either guy to end points and so it could really be a battle of fitness out there between Bautista Agut and Sandgren.

Who will be able to get on top of points? What creative ways will these guys come up with to get an edge in this match? How will these guys hold up physically in their first best-of-five match following the hiatus? 

I can't wait to watch and see! My prediction would be Bautista Agut in 5.

Walking "Byes"

I'm hesitant to add to this section, just because following the time off, so much is up-in-the-air. But, I have a couple players who I just can't see being a threat in their first round matches.

1.  Go Soeda

Go Soeda takes on Matteo Berrettini in the first round. He should provide very little resistance against Berrettini. Soeda hasn't played a single match, exhibition or otherwise, since the beginning of March, where he lost in straight sets to Emilio Gomez. Now, rusty and playing in the best-of-five format, it seems like this should be about as easy as could be for last year's semifinalist Berrettini.

Soeda wouldn't win regardless, but he would have put up more of a fight before the pandemic than he should now.

2. Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien was also involved in the coronavirus issue that Pella also faced. Dellien is a clay courter who is not great on hard courts to begin with and has last played a match (exhibition or not) in March.

Combine that with his matchup against Marton Fucsovics, a player who looked fantastic at the Western & Southern Open, and it's looking like this should be a beatdown.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Krajinovic in 4

Tsitsipas over Zverev in 3

Medvedev over Berrettini in 5

Raonic over Thiem in 4

Semifinals

Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 4

Medvedev over Raonic in 4

Final

Djokovic over Medvedev in 5

WTA Palermo Preview

Professional tennis is finally back! After months of exhibition events, we have finally reached the return of the WTA Tour in Palermo, Italy. This red clay tournament has a decent player field and should provide a great week of tennis! When the coronavirus outbreak first shut down professional sports, there was huge uncertainty on when tennis would return. Yet, here we are, even if fans aren't allowed into the venue.

The official drawsheet is here.

First Quarter

The first quarter of the draw features of showdown between two former French Open quarterfinalists: No. 1 seed Petra Martic (2019) and Alison Van Uytvanck (2015). There are a couple other dangerous players in this section of the draw, with No. 5 seed Elise Mertens and Daria Kasatkina also nearby. 

I think that Martic should get past Van Uytvanck in the first round. Martic's game fits the slower clay courts much better than Van Uytvanck's. Van Uytvanck likes faster, lower-bouncing courts where she can be aggressive and use her variety. In the next round, look for Martic to take on a qualifier or lucky loser (who I think beats Flipkens). Martic should have the game to beat whatever qualifier or lucky loser she faces.

In the other section of this quarter, Elise Mertens will take on a qualifier or lucky loser in the first round. This match could be closer than many might think, as Mertens is coming in cold after a pandemic, while the qualifier will have played a couple matches in Palermo already. Look for Mertens to squeeze by and advance. Expect Mertens to take on Kasatkina in the next round, who will have to squeeze by Jasmine Paolini in her first round match.

Mertens has a bit too much controlled aggression compared to Kasatkina, who might find that the consistency that is a pillar of her game is not fully back following the pandemic. 

That leaves us a quarterfinal showdown between Martic and Mertens. Mertens leads the head to head 2-0 (although they've never played on clay) and I think that her baseline game is a little more impressive than Martic's. Because of that, I have Mertens as the first semifinalist.

Second Quarter

The second quarter of the draw features No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit, who is coming off a win over Jelena Ostapenko in an exhibition event. Kontaveit takes on Patricia Maria Tig in the first round, a solid clay courter herself. However, Kontaveit has the power to make Tig very uncomfortable. 

Look for Kontaveit to start the restart strong and go to the second round where she I expect her to take on Laura Siegemund. I give Siegemund the edge over Begu because Siegemund has played significantly more tennis than Begu during the hiatus and there should be less rust for her. While Siegemund can make opponents uncomfortable with her all-court game, Kontaveit should be able to handle it.

The other section of the quarter has the spotlight on Donna Vekic. Vekic's first match is against Arantxa Rus, who plays a tricky lefty game. Vekic doesn't have a ton of margin on her groundstrokes, so I wonder how she will hold up after not having played a ton of matches in the past few months. But, I trust her to get by Rus, as she is the much better player.

Vekic should take on Polona Hercog in the next round. Hercog, a wiley veteran, has a tough-to-handle backhand slice and solid rally tolerance. Hercog will upset Vekic and advance to the quarterfinals.

In the quarters, Kontaveit will take on Hercog. Kontaveit has impressed me all season, she can play well on clay, and I see no reason why she won't be able to easily take care of Hercog. Hercog doesn't have the game to really hurt Kontaveit and the Estonian should reach the semifinals.

Third Quarter

This quarter of the draw includes No. 3 seed Maria Sakkari. She will take on Kristyna Pliskova in her first round match. Pliskova's game is largely based on her huge lefty serve, but she doesn't have much rally tolerance, so she's in trouble when her serve isn't on-point. Sakkari also has a high-quality return game and doesn't make too many unforced errors. This can really make Pliskova uncomfortable.

I then have Sakkari facing Sorana Cirstea. Cirstea faces former French Open finalist Sara Errani in the first round. However, this version of Errani is a shell of her former self. Cirstea both isn't steady enough from the baseline and doesn't have enough power to hurt Sakkari very much. Expect Sakkari to advance to the final eight.

But, who will she play? No. 8 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova had a wonderful 2019 season. She was often able to overpower her opponents. However, she has a tough first round opponent in Kristina Mladenovic.  Given that Mladenovic retired from her previous exhibition match, her health is in question. The Russian also has a bigger game than Mladenovic and will be able to control exchanges from the baseline. Alexandrova wins and advances to the second round.

I then think that Alexandrova will take on Fiona Ferro. Ferro has also played her exhibitions on hard court, but it's hard to deny the results. Ferro has won ten (exhibition) matches in a row and only dropped four sets. All of that winning breeds confidence and Ferro, who is an adept clay courter as well, should be able to handle Alexandrova in their second round encounter.

That leaves Ferro to take on Sakkari in the quarterfinals. Again, all of the competing and winning from Ferro recently will pay off. Sakkari hasn't played any competitive tennis at all since the pandemic began, which is in sharp contrast to Ferro. I expect Ferro to feel more comfortable out there than Sakkari, who would still only be in her third match back. Ferro will be the third semifinalist.

Fourth Quarter

This quarter is headed by Marketa Vondrousova, the No. 2 seed. Vondrousova should easily take care of whatever qualifier or lucky loser she plays. She's played fairly well during her exhibition matches on clay, including an impressive win over Petra Kvitova. In the second round, Vondrousova should take on Rebecca Peterson. Peterson has a dangerous first round matchup against Camila Giorgi. However, I can't see Giorgi's extremely high-risk game to fair well in her first match back, especially on clay.

Peterson is a solid player with good controlled aggression. However, Vondrousova has a little more power and her lefty game is especially tough to handle on clay. Vondrousova should move on to the quarterfinals.

The other seeded player in this section is No. 7 seed Dayana Yastremska. Yastremska likes to hit the ball big and control the baseline. However, like Giorgi, will she be able to play her best so soon after the hiatus on a surface that doesn't suit her game? Sara Sorribes Tormo is a perfect first round opponent for her, as Sorribes Tormo has no weapons to hurt Yastremska. Yastremska wins.

The Ukranian will then most likely face Tamara Zidansek in the second round. This is where I see an upset occurring. I am very high on Zidansek's game on clay. She can really control the court with her heavy forehand and make opponents very uncomfortable. She should beat Yastremska to face Vondrousova in the quarterfinals.

However, Zidansek's run should stop in the quarterfinals. The matchup of the Vondrousova forehand to the Zidansek backhand is more in Vondrousova's favor compared to the Zidansek forehand versus the Vondrousova backhand. For this reason, Vondrousova should be able to get past Zidansek and take her place in the semifinals.

Semifinals

Our first semifinal matchup will be No. 5 seed Elise Mertens vs No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit. Mertens leads the head to head 2-1, although this will be their first matchup on clay. However, I think that Kontaveit is the craftier player and has a bit more power than Mertens. I see Kontaveit as a top 10 player in the near future and it gives me a little more confidence when I see that she recently beat Ostapenko, as it means her form is at a good level. Mertens is so solid and should make it close, but I see Kontaveit as our first finalist. Just my gut feeling.

The second semifinal is going to be unseeded Fiona Ferro against No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Again, Vondrousova's lefty forehand on clay is a huge factor in this match. That shot is a major reason why Vondrousova reached the French Open final last year. Ferro will be full of confidence, but ultimately, Vondrousova's game just has a little higher of a ceiling on clay and she should be able to command more baseline exchanges. Vondrousova will be our second finalist.

Final

Our final is No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit vs No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Vondrousova leads the head to head 1-0, but that matchup was on a hard court. This is a tough match to call between two up-and-coming stars. However, it comes down to who's game do I trust not to break down. And on a clay court, Vondrousova's game is more steady than Kontaveit's.

Vondrousova should be able to set herself up well with her serve and I think that she will get the upper-hand in baseline exchanges. 

Marketa Vondrousova will be the WTA Palermo champion!

 

Brandon Nakashima Not Letting Pandemic Slow Him Down

Brandon Nakashima was having the season of his young career. The 18 year-old American started the year at World No. 367 and was already up to World No. 220. Nakashima's 147-spot rise in less than three months was already approaching how far he climbed up the rankings during the 2019 season. In 2019, Nakashima went from World No. 527 to World No. 367.

Nakashima had beaten some very good competition during this time. In 2020 alone, Nakashima has taken down players such as Ryan Harrison, Bernard Tomic, Jiri Vesely, and Cameron Norrie.

Then, the coronavirus pandemic shut down the world. It would certainly be understandable if Nakashima got down on himself due to the timing of the pandemic. Here he was in the midst of his breakthrough and a nearly unprecedented viral outbreak brought his momentum to a halt. Would the American be able to sustain his high quality of play when tennis resumed?

Well, based on how he has played during exhibition events that he has competed in during the pandemic, the answer to that question is yes. Combining his matches during the Matchplay 120 and U.S. Men's Pro Tennis Series exhibitions, Nakashima is currently 7-0. He has a 14-1 record in sets played.

Nakashima has played and taken down two top 65 players during this time in Steve Johnson and Sam Querrey. Last night, Querrey took the first set against Nakashima and had three break points on the Nakashima serve in his first service game of the second set. Yet, Nakashima did not panic, held, and then eventually took the match 4-6, 6-3, 6-3.

So, what makes Nakashima's game so tough to beat? The American has good power on both his serve and groundstrokes. Yet, it rarely feels like he is overhitting, as Nakashima has a high level of control over his game. Nakashima's backhand especially cuts through the court so well, making it very tough for opponents to handle.

Nakashima's return game is also very solid. He has not been phased by big servers such as Querrey, Vesely, or Martin Redlicki. Nakashima truly does not have many weaknesses in his game.

Yet, that doesn't mean that Nakashima is a perfect tennis player. For starters, I would love to see the American move to the net behind his powerful groundstrokes. Perhaps he isn't totally comfortable at the net yet, but it would be great to see him move forward more.

In addition, it would be great to see Nakashima diversify what surfaces he is playing on. If I am reading this right, it looks like the American has never played a professional match off of a hard court in his career, so far.

As so much of professional tennis takes places off of hard courts, it is very important that Nakashima gets more experience on clay courts especially. While I'm confident he would have at least played the United States green clay court Challengers and Roland Garros qualifying if this was a normal season, it is still a noticeable gap on his resume. 

Point construction on clay, and grass for that matter, is much different than on a hard court and he will have to get used to different styles of play at the professional level. In addition, clay is a more physical surface than hard, so that will also be an adjustment for Nakashima at the professional level.

Yet, I can't help but be excited about Nakashima's future on the ATP Tour and the recent exhibition events have only added to my enthusiasm. The fact that Nakashima was able to easily pick up where he left off and dismantle opponents is a testament to both his talent and the work he put in during the early portion of the pandemic where exhibitions weren't possible for most of the world.

This smooth transition is especially prominent when one sees other pros struggle with consistency in their return to tennis.

But, the future isn't certain. Both in terms of where Nakashima will go from here and in terms of pro tennis as a sport. Will Nakashima be able to play qualifying or receive a wild card into the US Open? Will the US Open even happen at all? Who knows.

Yet, out of every young prospect outside of the top 100, I truly believe none have as high of a ceiling as Brandon Nakashima.

It's up to Nakashima whether or not he lives up to his potential.

Reviewing the Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro

COVID-19 has created massive problems throughout the world, including the cancellation of tennis through July 13th (currently). The Mutua Madrid Open decided that, instead of cancelling the tournament altogether, they would hold a virtual tournament instead of the regular in-person clay court event.

While not ideal by any means, with the surge in popularity of esports, this seemed like a good way for tennis to enter into the gaming sphere. The tournament decided that Tennis World Tour would be the video game of choice and playstation to be the game console used.

With 150,000 euros at stake (with at least some of that total expected to go to a donation) and 50,000 additional euros set aside exclusively for donations, the stakes were high for the 32 players participating.

The tournament was still gender-separated with 16 ATP players and 16 WTA players parsed into groups of 4 for dueling round robin tournaments. In the round robin stage, the players played to 3, with at tiebreak at 3-3. There was also a charity tournament occurring simultaneously.

For the main tournaments, after the round robin, there would be a traditional quarterfinal, knock out-style setup. In the knock out stages of the tournament, a full set of virtual tennis was played to determine a winner. Kiki Bertens and Andy Murray ended up winning the WTA and ATP virtual titles, respectively.

So, how successful was the tournament? Could we see a wave of similar tournaments, even when the regular tours return? Let's dive in.

Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro Review

The tournament started off on the wrong foot with the withdrawal of Gael Monfils (whose spot was taken by Benoit Paire) due to an issue with the rights to stream his virtual matches.

Tennis journalist Matthew Willis made the point that the virtual tournament was exclusive to Facebook and Monfils was affiliated with Twitch, another streaming platform. The streaming on Facebook part is weird to Willis, who has showcased how much more popular Twitch is for streaming.

There were more withdrawals during the tournament too. The game itself was a laggy disaster (more on that later), and during the round robin stage of the men's tournament, Dominic Thiem and Karen Khachanov withdrew because of technical issues, giving opponents 3-0 wins.

Even in the charity tournament taking place alongside the main tournament, technical issues for Rafael Nadal and Donna Vekic forced the cancellation of that match.

If Tennis World Tour is the best video game that tennis has, then the future of video game play in the sport is in huge trouble. Willis showcased the glitchy, terrible graphics that almost certainly turned viewers off from the game.

Then, in the men's semifinals, when Andy Murray took on Diego Schwartzman, it was as tennis journalist Stuart Fraser reported Murray saying, "...a disaster." Technical difficulties marred the match and the players ultimately decided that Murray should advance to the final.

It was almost comical how poorly the tournament was working out. In the semifinals of a virtual tournament, the players can barely even play due to technical issues. If I'm being frank, it was a total embarrassment for the tournament and reflected poorly on the sport's ability to put together a solid virtual tournament.

Personally, when I was watching the quarterfinal matchup between Bianca Andreescu and Sorana Cirstea, a match which Cirstea eventually won in a tiebreak, there was at least one occasion that I can remember where a player served a let, but was inexplicably given the point. With as seriously as the virtual tournament was taking itself, even such a seemingly minor problem during play de-legitimizes the competition.

That's not to say that the organizers weren't trying their hardest. It was clear that Madrid tournament director Feliciano Lopez and the rest of the team at Madrid were trying their best to put on the best event possible.

The problem for the Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro was that the the game itself felt deficient in someway. The graphics felt like they were from 10 or 15 years ago, as opposed to the modern day video games we are used to.

Tennis as sport might also just not be very well-suited to video games in general, at least serious video games trying to realistically replicate the action on the court. Watching the Virtual Pro, it felt like so much was missing. The cool angles and spins that players put on the ball, the trick shots, even the interaction between players and their boxes. All gone.

Instead, we got a glitchy, laggy, bland version of tennis that was a massive disappointment. The fun of NHL, FIFA, NBA2K, and Madden was replaced with this lame game.

A charity tournament featuring the Serena Williams Naomi Osaka, and Maria Sharapova (along with other tennis players and celebrities) is using Mario Tennis Aces as their game of choice. While that tournament, officially named the "Stay at Home Slam", is also using Facebook to stream,  there is a key difference. The video game of choice is much better suited for a virtual tennis event meant to draw in fans.

Mario games are more about having fun than having serious, realistic competition. And perhaps that was the Virtual Pro's problem, they were so intent on having pros in the game itself that they forgot that a less serious video game like Mario Tennis Aces would actually be more fun to play and watch.

Let's be honest, no video game is going to realistically mimic the Nadal topspin forehand on clay.

However, a word of caution for the "Stay at Home Slam": the tournament is using John McEnroe along with Justine Ezarik for commentary. I believe that having official commentary was a very poor choice for the Virtual Pro. The commentary was unnecessary and took away from the players' own commentary. Yet another way the tournament was taking itself too seriously.

I don't mean for this to be a post where I just crap all over the virtual tournament. However, if we are to have video game tennis tournaments in the future, it's important to learn from past mistakes and try to provide the best viewer experience possible.

I appreciate the Mutua Madrid Open stepping up to the plate and essentially being the guinea pig for quarantine virtual content. Future tournaments can take what happened at the Virtual Pro and hopefully put together a better product.

Ball Kid Reform in the Aftermath of COVID-19

As COVID-19 wreaks havoc across the world, I thought about what good, if any, could possibly come out of this terrible pandemic. Coronavirus has brought much of the world to a halt, so there's plenty of time to think about tennis reform.

Before Indian Wells was cancelled, the plan was for ball kids to not handle the towels (towels would be on chairs) and to wear gloves while performing their duties on court. The question, then, that I have is: Why has it taken a global pandemic for this type of reform to be fully brought to the forefront of those in charge of tennis?

Even if we didn't have highly contagious, dangerous disease out there, what has stopped the tennis authorities from implementing such a change earlier?

At the Next Gen Finals event for the ATP, towel racks were placed on court so that ball kids would not have to touch the players' sweaty towels. Sure, it might take an extra second or two for the player to walk to the towel rack, but it is certainly worth it.

Besides sweat, almost certainly the players' hair and skin cells were smeared across those towels. And if a player was sick, the ball kids were at especially high risk.

The reception of the towel rack wasn't outstanding. According to The Telegraph's Charlie Eccleshare, Stefanos Tsitsipas stated, "it's the ball kids' job to provide them." This was when Tsitsipas was in the Next Gen Finals in 2018, so he might have evolved his view since then. But regardless, it shouldn't be the ball kids' job to hand players' a dirty towel. Pandemic or not.

Something interesting in Indian Wells' plans was the introduction of gloves. And it makes sense, right? Even if not touching the towels, the ball kids still have to touch the balls themselves. The same balls that the sweaty players hold before they serve and that smash into the asphalt/clay/grass many, many times throughout the match.

Not to mention that if a ball goes into the stands and a fan throws the ball back, that fan might also not be feeling well. So, it makes sense, at least to me, that ball kids should be heavily encouraged to wear gloves, no matter the state of public health around the world.

Perhaps I sound like I'm being hypersensitive given the state of the pandemic, but momentum has been building for ball kid reform for quite some time, with Fernando Verdasco's October 2018 treatment of a ball kid providing momentum for positive change. It should never be forgotten that ball kids are worthy of the same respect given to others in the tennis universe.

Due to coronavirus, July 13th is the soonest we will see tennis, as of now. And so many of us are eager to get back to the court as quickly as possible. But, when we do get back, let's not forget about the innovations that Indian Wells showed us just prior to its cancellation.

Ball kids are very important in the game of tennis in the sense that they keep the flow of the game working really well. Instead of tennis being a start-stop process, as players collect balls from around the court, ball kids keep the pace of play high.

So, let's start showing these invaluable members of the tennis community the respect they deserve, even if we have to delay the match a couple seconds so a player can towel himself/herself off.

Because without the ball kids, matches would be going a lot slower.

So, I'm imploring the ATP, WTA, and ITF: the COVID-19 pandemic is bad enough, let's see if we can get a little bit of good out of a terrible situation.

And ball kid reform as described in this post would be a good thing for the game.

Thoughts Regarding Tennis and COVID-19

So, this blog post is just as much as about myself working through issues related to tennis and coronavirus as much as it is about trying to provide clarity for others. Quite frankly, coronavirus has wrecked havoc to the tennis season. But, at this point, tennis is the very least of the vast, vast majority of the world's concerns.

COVID-19

I'm not an infectious disease, so I won't pretend to be an expert, but this is a good link for learning the very basics about coronavirus (specifically COVID-19) if you don't already know the specifics. Essentially, COVID-19 is a contagious disease that started in Wuhan, China, late last year. The main symptoms of COVID-19 are the patient having a fever, being tired, and having a cough that is dry. The link above answers many of the other questions you have about this strain of coronavirus and, rather than repeat their answers here, it's better to look at the Q&A if you want to learn more.

Impact on ATP, WTA, and ITF

Honestly, the impact on tennis really isn't important at this point, but this is a tennis blog and so I will break it down. The first major domino to fall was the cancellation of the outdoors hard court BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Indian Wells is a Masters 1000 for men and Premier Mandatory for women, so it's right below the ATP and WTA Finals events in terms of importance. From the perspective of an American, Indian Wells was one of the first American major events to be postponed (or cancelled), so this came as a shock.

It also came as a shock to the players, where some vented on Twitter for being out of the loop and finding out on the social media platform instead of from their governing body (WTA or ATP) directly. It's understandable that the tours would be scrambling, but it can certainly be frustrating, from the players' point of view, if they aren't getting information about the sport that they rely on for their livelihood in a timely manner.

Indian Wells was technically postponed, so there's a chance that it is played later this year. But, given the French Open's move (which I will discuss later), it seems less likely now. But, in a time like this, who knows.

March 12th was a busy day for tennis postponements/cancellations. The ITF postponed events until April 20th, at the earliest. The ITF is involved in events like Futures tournaments, Fed Cup, and Davis Cup. Therefore, anything within those areas are postponed.

Also on March 12th, the Miami Open was cancelled until 2021. Miami, like Indian Wells, is a Masters 1000 event for the ATP and Premier Mandatory for the WTA, so this was another major cancellation. The sunshine swing was officially over, at least at this point.

On this same date, the ATP announced a six week hiatus from the tour due to COVID-19. There are many tournaments affected by this ruling across the United States and Europe. This ruling also affects the ATP Challenger Tour, which is under the ATP's jurisdiction. The Challenger Tour was suspended, which included the tournaments currently being played in Potchefstroom and Nur-Sultan.

The WTA took a more incremental approach to the postponement/cancellation dilemma. On March 12th, The WTA stated that the Miami Open and the Volvo Car Open (Charleston green clay event) would not be happening. Then, later in the day on March 12th, the WTA cancelled Challenger in Guadalajara during the second week of Indian Wells and the International event set to start on April 6th in Bogota.

Finally, on March 16th, the WTA suspended the entire tour until May 2nd. This means that the indoor clay tournament in Stuttgart, and the outdoor clay events in Istanbul and Prague wouldn't occur. This stoppage was set a little longer than the ATP's, but at least I presume that the extension of the ATP hiatus would have been extended to at least as long as the WTA's.


Update: As reported by Gaspar Ribeiro Lanca, the ATP, WTA, and ITF announced that tennis is called off until June 7th. A freeze in the rankings will occur during this time.

Here is the updated list of tournaments that won't be played due to COVID-19.

French Open

The French Open, one of tennis' four major tournaments, announced on March 17th that the tournament would be moved to the back half of September through the beginning of October, as opposed to its usual late May through early June dates.

 This spins the tennis calendar on its head much more so than before. As tennis journalist Jose Morgado points out, there are many ATP and WTA events that were supposed to be played during the French Open, it seems unilaterally, decided to change their dates. 

There was confusion all around, whether it be the ATP's Player's Council, per Morgado, or even the WTA's head Steve Simon, as tennis journalist Christopher Clarey points out. It seems that the French Open's move was a total shock for many involved.

Morgado also makes the good point that the US Open ends six days before Roland Garros! The logistics of having a slam in such close proximity is, let's be honest, a nightmare. The US Open, given their statement, are clearly not happy with the French Open, either.

But, at the same time, former tennis player Mark Petchey has provided good perspective on the matter, stating that the ability to still have the major and make such massive amounts of money in such a time of crisis and instability in the world. 

It's certainly true that getting to play all four majors this year, even if it's inconvenient and some people in the world would have to make sacrifices. But, in the time of a pandemic, everyone isn't going to be able to get their way completely. It's important to just accept that, even if the French Open is coming off selfishly in this manner.

Overall

However, the economic impact of cancelling so much tennis is huge for players and others who make their money from tennis are suffering greatly right now. Even for players that were planning on playing or qualifying for Indian Wells or Miami, that was a big opportunity to make a lot of money that could fund much of the rest of the year and get an immediate boost in the rankings. For players planning on playing ITF events and Challengers, and tournaments workers who were relying on these tournaments to make a living, this crisis is even more of a disaster.

This certainly feels like a bleak time in the world's history and this feeling is certainly a reality. Kirsten Flipkens' sentiment in this tweet from March 15th is certainly a good way of looking at this world crisis.

Anything Positive?

To bring a small breath of positivity in this time, I want to state that I was very excited to see that Tsvetana Pironokva is coming back to the WTA Tour! She has been gone from the WTA due to having a child and is ready to see if she can reach new heights on the WTA Tour, having gotten as high as No. 31 in the World. Pironkova made the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010, beating Venus Williams in straight sets in the quarterfinals before a semifinal loss to Vera Zvonareva.

It's going to be great to see Pironkova back out on the tennis court. Hopefully we can all band together and get through this world health crisis and we can see her, and every other professional tennis player, on court soon.

Stay safe, y'all!

Men's Australian Open Draw Thoughts

The Australian Open always has a level of uncertainty surrounding it. Whose good form will continue into the upcoming season? Who's trained well in the off-season? How will players handle the heat of an Australian summer? And will be there be a player making their major semifinal debut, like Hyeon Chung and Stefanos Tsitsipas in years past?

The 2020 version of these questions will be answered in Melbourne in the next couple of weeks! Here, I give my best predictions for the Australian Open. I fully expect most of these predictions to blow up in my face.

Oh well.

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Nick Kyrgios Beats Rafael Nadal in Round of 16

Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios certainly have a history. It's clear that Nadal doesn't like Kyrgios and Kyrgios doesn't like Nadal. Kyrgios also tends to his play his best tennis against Nadal. So, what better drama than for Nadal to meet Kyrgios at Nick's home major?

The draw sets up nicely for this to happen. Nadal shouldn't lose a second set going into the fourth round. Hugo Dellien and then the winner of Federico Delbonis/Joao Sousa is about as easy of a first two rounds as Nadal could have hoped for. None of those three players have the weapons to make Nadal uncomfortable.  Delbonis does have a little power in his game, but he's so inconsistent that Nadal would have a field day playing Federico. These matches should warm Nadal up nicely. The seed he would face in the third round is Pablo Carreno Busta, another player who does not hit particularly big from either his serve nor groundstrokes and who would not be a threat to Rafa.

Kyrgios' draw also sets up well for a Round of 16 meeting. Sonego in the first round, while having a bigger serve and forehand, has been comfortably handled by Nick in the past and I don't suspect that he has the game to hang with a motivated Nick. He would then take on the winner of Cuevas and Simon. Cuevas has had a terrible start to the season and would get blown off the court by Kyrgios. Simon's ability to keep rallies going might bother Kyrgios somewhat, but Kyrgios' clear advantage of serve, and thus ability to get into lots of Simon's service games, bodes well for his chances. The seed on the other side of Kyrgios' mini-section is Karen Khachanov, who after a very beginning to the season, has started to fall apart. It's not good that he didn't get a break point and Lajovic's serve at ATP Cup and then he lost immediately to John Millman in Auckland.

Kyrgios likes how Nadal's ball sits up in his strike zone. Kyrgios will also have the crowd behind him. In a match like this, it's also important to remember that Rafa really didn't have much recovery time during the off-season. Even his Abu Dhabi exhibition match with Stefanos Tsitsipas was an intense and long match. Nadal also looked slightly off during ATP Cup, without his usual abundance of energy.

This is setting up well for a Nick Kyrgios upset.

2. Casper Ruud Makes 2nd Week of Major for the First Time

Casper Ruud started off the season very strong at ATP Cup. Ruud went 2-1, with wins over John Isner and Fabio Fognini. His loss to Daniil Medvedev is nothing to scoff over. It's clear that Ruud has put in the work over the offseason, and this is translating to his results on-court.

Ruud is known for his forehand. It's clear that he trains at the Nadal Academy, because he tries to emulate Nadal, just a right-handed version of him. The spin and force on his forehand are very difficult for opponents to handle.

Ruud's first round is against Egor Gerasimov, by no means a pushover. But, Gerasimov has not started off the season strong, losing both of his matches so far. He lost to Marton Fucsovics in the first round of Doha and then lost to Harold Mayot in his opening match in the Bendigo II Challenger. While Mayot is an up-and-coming player, that was a match Gerasimov really should be winning at this point in his career.

Yes, I know he probably would have to play Alexander Zverev in the second round. But, Zverev played terribly at the ATP Cup. Zverev only won one set during three consecutive losses to Alex De Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Denis Shapovalov. That doesn't exactly exude confidence in Zverev for this major. Not to mention, that Zverev has repeatedly fallen short of expectations when it comes to the grand slams.

If their ATP Cup forms continue onto the Australian Open, I fully expect Ruud to beat Zverev. Then, in a potential third round against likely Nicoloz Basilashvili (the other seed in the mini-section)/Kwon Soon-Woo/Fernando Verdasco, Ruud would have a very respectable shot to reach his first ever slam second week.

3. Tommy Paul Makes Some Noise

Tommy Paul has been getting better and better throughout the past couple of seasons and based on how he's played in Adelaide, it seems that he ready to stay on the ATP Tour. In Adelaide,  Paul has qualified and made the semifinals without dropping a set. This includes wins over Nicolas Jarry, Aljaz Bedene, Pablo Cuevas, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

In the Australian Open draw, he is in a tough mini-section, facing Leonardo Mayer in the first round, and then potentially Grigor Dimitrov in his second match, which would precede Denis Shapovalov/Jannik Sinner in his third match.

Given such a draw, it's hard to predict that Paul is going to run through his draw and make the fourth. But, what I can comfortably state is that Paul will make some noise. I think at the very least, he will beat Mayer and play Dimitrov incredibly close.

Many may only know Paul for challenging Thiem in the first round of Roland Garros last season. But, Paul has gotten even better since that match. Paul's serve and forehand in Adelaide have been very impressive. Huge serve and then dictating play very well with his heavy forehand.

Paul and Ruud's games actually remind me of each other's and the thing that both of them are doing well is defending the backhand side.

4. Novak Djokovic Makes Final With Ease

If you are a Novak Djokovic fan and initially look at his draw, you might see a bunch of landmines that would prevent him from reaching the final. However, I see it differently. I think Djokovic has a relatively straightforward path to the final.

His first round match is against Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff is a big-server and someone who can hit the cover off of the ball. However, in their two head to head matchups, Djokovic has not dropped a set. In fact, in their last match at the French Open last season, Djokovic only dropped seven games over the course of three sets! Djokovic, the best returner in tennis history, handles power players very well, and at his best tournament, should not be troubled by Struff.

Tatsuma Ito nor any qualifier (who Ito will have to play in the first round) have the game to match Djokovic. Even guys like Emil Ruusuvuori and JJ Wolf would get completely neutralized by Djokovic's game.

In the third round, Djokovic would likely face Dan Evans or Yoshihito Nishioka. Evans, while having a magnificent ATP Cup, could very well be run down due to the ATP Cup and Adelaide. His touch shots and backhand slice also wouldn't trouble Djokovic. Nishioka, with his heavy lefty forehand, has the game where he will try to out-grind opponents from the baseline. Only Nadal has the ability to do that against Djokovic, although perhaps Medvedev will able to do that soon. Nishioka doesn't hit a hard enough ball to be able to trouble Novak.

Djokovic's round of 16 opponent would likely be one of Diego Schwartzman/Lloyd Harris/Dusan Lajovic. Lloyd Harris doesn't have the rally tolerance to trouble Djokovic and Novak would be able to dictate play against Schwartzman /Lajovic.

Stefanos Tsitsipas or Roberto Bautista Agut is the likely quarterfinal opponent. Tsitsipas has shown the ability to beat Djokovic in best-of-three, but a best-of-five win at the Australian Open is another animal. Tsitsipas would have to flatten out his groundstrokes and play at a higher risk level for, in all probability, four to five hours. I don't trust Tsitsipas to be able to do this.

Bautista Agut has the ability to hang with Djokovic from the baseline in long rallies, but Djokovic's advantage from the baseline wing, better serve, and ability to convert his opportunities when he sees openings during rallies sets him apart from Bautista Agut.

Roger Federer is the likely semifinal matchup for Djokovic. That would obviously be tough, but I think Djokovic is happier to see Federer on his side of the draw than Medvedev. In ATP Cup, Medvedev pushed Djokovic to the brink and point-after-point turn into long battles. Federer, despite dominating Djokovic at the ATP Finals, is a little older and has a pretty tough draw. Krajinovic potentially in the second round, Hurkacz/Millman in the third, fourth round against Dimitrov/Shapovalov/Sinner/Paul, with a quarterfinal against Berrettini/Coric would be pretty brutal. While it is absolutely ridiculous to count Federer out,  playing against a tired Federer wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Djokovic.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Corentin Moutet vs Marin Cilic

This should be a really fun match. Corentin Moutet just reached the final in Doha, beating Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, and Stanislas Wawrinka in succession. Moutet's game is very entertaining to watch. He utilizes a lot of variety, using all areas of the court and coming to net often. The different spins he puts on his groundstrokes can befuddle opponents.

Moutet is going up against Marin Cilic, who has had an average start to the season. Discounting the exhibition in Kooyong, Cilic went 2-1, but neither of his wins were against top 90 players. Cilic has a big serve and really goes after his groundstrokes, but when he is off, he is really off. It will be very interesting to see how he handles Moutet's eclectic game.

If I had to predict this match, I would say that Cilic wins a tight one. Despite their recent forms, Cilic is still the better player. But, with that said, expect Moutet to keep the fans engaged and the score close.

Predictions

Quarterfinals
Monfils over Kyrgios in 5
Medvedev over Goffin in 4
Federer over Berrettini in 4
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 3

Semifinals
Medvedev over Monfils in 4
Djokovic over Federer in 4

Final 
Djokovic over Medvedev in 5

Novak Djokovic will be your 2020 Australian Open champion!