Men's US Open Draw Thoughts

Well, we didn't know if this time would come. Back in March, everything on the tennis calendar was in doubt and it looked like the coronavirus pandemic might just take away the tennis season. But, we've made it here and the main draws for the women's and men's US Open have been released!

In this article, I examine the men's US Open draw, giving my thoughts and some predictions. I totally expect half of my semifinalists to be out by the third round.

That's how these things work.

Note: The full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Top Seeds Fall Early

This is probably common sense, but I would feel foolish not putting it in here. With the amount of time off for the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone's preparation for the US Open being different, it's very hard to judge form coming into this tournament. A single tournament ("Cincinnati") surely did not give us all of the details needed to judge players' forms.

So, this means that top seeds can vulnerable, especially those that have tough draws early. Despite success in Cincinnati this week, No. 8 Roberto Bautista Agut has to play the brick wall, Tennys Sandgren, in the first round. No. 7 seed David Goffin has to play Reilly Opelka in the first round. 

If these top 8 seeds are not playing at a high level early on, they could easily fall in these first round encounters, or in the subsequent round or two if they face a dangerous opponent. It's very hard to say, however, whether or not this will occur.

2. A Lot of Wild Cards Make it Past the First Round

A few of the wild cards for the US Open have favorable draws. (Note: this is the original wild card list). The draws for the wild cards in the first round are quite good. 

Michael Mmoh takes on Joao Sousa in the first round. Joao Sousa has been out-of-form and is vulnerable for the upset. Mitchell Krueger gets Pedro Sousa as his first round opponent. Pedro Sousa is a clay courter who has not played on hard courts much this season at all and retired from his last exhibition match with an injury.

Ulises Blanch is one of my favorite under-the-radar players. Has a massive serve and forehand and can overwhelm opponents with pace. He takes on Cristian Garin in the first round. Garin is best on clay and has a 1-6 record on hard courts this year. Blanch can certainly cause an upset. A potential second round matchup against Mikhail Kukushkin (who plays Attila Balazs in the first round) would be tough, but not the most difficult opponent he could have faced.

Brandon Nakashima is one of the most heralded young Americans and he has a winnable first round match against Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi was starting to look his age in the exhibition events I saw him play during the pandemic and Nakashima has a big advantage in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

JJ Wolf has Guido Pella in the first round, a player who has had to quarantine due to his trainer getting COVID-19. He hasn't spent much time recently on the practice court, a huge disadvantage with the the best-of-five format at the US Open. Wolf has a realistic chance to make the second round too, with a potential matchup against Roberto Carballes Baena or Feliciano Lopez. Carballes Baena is by-far best on clay and Lopez is 38 years-old and who knows if his fitness is at a level where he can win consecutive best-of-five matches at this point in his career.

Finally, Maxime Cressy, one of the most controversial players from the ATP Challenger Tour,  has a favorable first round draw against Josef Kovalik. Kovalik is a clay courter who has barely played on hard courts all season. This is a perfect chance for Cressy to frustrate Kovalik with his huge serve-and-volley game. A win would also most likely give Cressy a chance to see how his game measures up against young ATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. 

That would be fun.

3. Stefanos Tsitsipas Makes a Second Major Semifinal

I think that the draw sets up really well for Tsitsipas to make the semifinals. A first rounder against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who lost all four exhibition matches during the pandemic (on clay) and is yet to win a set in two meetings with Tsitsipas is not threatening to the Greek.

It would seem that Tsitsipas is getting more comfortable playing big servers. His time competing against players like Anderson, Isner, Opelka, and Raonic will serve him well against (potentially) Cressy in the second round. Cressy might get under Tsitsipas' skin with his antics, but Tsitsipas will get enough returns and passing shots to give the American fits.

Borna Coric is the seed in his mini-section. Coric had coronavirus, so who knows how his body will react to the best-of-five format. His results in general (exhibition and "Cincinnati") have not been promising post-coronavirus. In addition, he doesn't really have anything in his game to hurt Tsitsipas with.

The top seeds in the other section are Cristian Garin and Dusan Lajovic. Garin, as I've mentioned, is best on clay and I think has a real shot to lose to Blanch in the first round. Lajovic had a lot of success earlier this year at ATP Cup and the Australian Open, but has struggled mightily lately. Dating back to Lajovic's loss to Soon-woo Kwon in Acapulco, including exhibitions, Lajovic has lost his last seven matches. I don't have confidence in him to make a run right now. 

A player like Jordan Thompson could make Tsitsipas play a physical match in the round of 16, but I believe that Tsitsipas would eventually overpower him.

In the quarterfinals, it would potentially be a matchup with Alexander Zverev. I'm not convinced, with Zverev's serving woes, that he could even make it to the last eight with Tsitsipas. Other seeded players on the other side of the quarter include Diego Schwartzman, who wasn't great in Cincinnati, and Hubert Hurkacz, who's been struggling to find his game recently, and Adrian Mannarino, who looked very rusty in his loss to Millman at the Western & Southern Open.

I feel very confident thinking that Tsitsipas will be a semifinalist at the US Open, taking another big step in his blooming career.

4. Novak Djokovic Wins Another US Open

Djokovic has done it three times before and without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the draw,  I feel confident that Djokovic can win a fourth US Open. Yes, the neck could become a concern, but Djokovic has looked very impressive at the Western & Southern Open since that first match against Ricardas Berankis.

The draw sets up very well for Djokovic. Thiem and Medvedev are on the other half and the seeded opponent in his mini-section is Jan-Lennard Struff, who Djokovic just beat comfortably in "Cincinnati". Djokovic could play John Isner in the fourth round, but Djokovic's game is centered around his return and Isner was a little below his normal level in "Cincinnati". 

The top-eight seed in his section, David Goffin, has (as I mentioned before) a brutal first round matchup against Reilly Opelka and doesn't have the game to outduel Djokovic from the baseline.

Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals would be very tough, but if Djokovic can make the semifinals, it would mean he is locked-in and I can't see Djokovic losing to Tsitsipas in the best-of-five format. Djokovic would eventually force too many errors from the Tsitsipas racquet.

In a final against Medvedev or Thiem, Djokovic would be able to outlast either, much like he did against Thiem in the Australian Open final earlier this season.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tennys Sandgren

We are going to see some fantastic baseline play in this one. Maybe it's my preference for baseliners compared to big-servers, but I am fascinated to see what happens in this one. Will Bautista Agut's long week at the Western & Southern Open affect his play in New York? He's certainly looked impenetrable from the baseline this past week. 

Sandgren made the second major quarterfinal of his career at the Australian Open this year. He's so hard for opponents to hit through and can counterpunch at such a high level. It will take a lot for either guy to end points and so it could really be a battle of fitness out there between Bautista Agut and Sandgren.

Who will be able to get on top of points? What creative ways will these guys come up with to get an edge in this match? How will these guys hold up physically in their first best-of-five match following the hiatus? 

I can't wait to watch and see! My prediction would be Bautista Agut in 5.

Walking "Byes"

I'm hesitant to add to this section, just because following the time off, so much is up-in-the-air. But, I have a couple players who I just can't see being a threat in their first round matches.

1.  Go Soeda

Go Soeda takes on Matteo Berrettini in the first round. He should provide very little resistance against Berrettini. Soeda hasn't played a single match, exhibition or otherwise, since the beginning of March, where he lost in straight sets to Emilio Gomez. Now, rusty and playing in the best-of-five format, it seems like this should be about as easy as could be for last year's semifinalist Berrettini.

Soeda wouldn't win regardless, but he would have put up more of a fight before the pandemic than he should now.

2. Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien was also involved in the coronavirus issue that Pella also faced. Dellien is a clay courter who is not great on hard courts to begin with and has last played a match (exhibition or not) in March.

Combine that with his matchup against Marton Fucsovics, a player who looked fantastic at the Western & Southern Open, and it's looking like this should be a beatdown.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Krajinovic in 4

Tsitsipas over Zverev in 3

Medvedev over Berrettini in 5

Raonic over Thiem in 4

Semifinals

Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 4

Medvedev over Raonic in 4

Final

Djokovic over Medvedev in 5