As I look through the men's draw of the 2021 French Open, there's plenty of good matchups in the first round. Whether it be No. 13 seed David Goffin vs Lorenzo Musetti, Marin Cilic vs Arthur Rinderknech, or Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos, there are plenty of good first round matchups to choose from.
But, it's a battle of qualifiers that could be the most exciting match of the first round in the men's draw. A match between Spaniards, an 18 year-old rising star and a 24 year-old experiencing his moment-in-the-sun.
Yes, I'm talking about Carlos Alcaraz vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles.
Carlos Alcaraz is the 18 year-old rising star. He is newly into the top 100, entering that elite section of the rankings after beating Facundo Bagnis in the final of the of the clay-court Oeiras 3 Challenger to leap up to World No. 94 in the ATP rankings.
The win in Oeiras was the 3rd Challenger title for Alcaraz since the coronavirus hiatus and the 4th Challenger final during that time span. I will discuss that final later on, as he happened to play Zapata Miralles in that match.
Alcaraz went into French Open qualifying with the weight of last year's disappointment on his shoulders. Last year, Alcaraz lost in 3 sets to Aleksander Vukic in the first round of qualifying. He was a set up in the match, but after losing a tight second-set tiebreak, couldn't regain his momentum in the third.
But, a tough loss like that in a big moment can be the best thing to happen to a young player. It allows that player the chance to reflect and evaluate short-comings in his or her game and the opportunity to think more about how to improve one's mindset on the tennis court.
Alcaraz came into this year's Roland Garros qualifying, perhaps the last time he will have to play a Grand Slam qualifying match in his career, looking like a man on a mission.
The Spaniard only lost 11 games over the course of his 3 qualifying matches. He won over 70% of his first serves in all of his qualifying matches and in both of his last 2 matches in qualifying had a first serve percentage over 70%.
In all 3 of Alcaraz's qualifying matches he held his opponents to under 55% first serves won. And while Lukas Lacko in the opening round of qualifying was an easier opponent, Alcaraz easily disposed of good clay court Challenger players in Andrea Pellegrino and Alejandro Tabilo during his next two matches.
After qualifying, Alcaraz was overjoyed, telling the ATP, "I'm really, really happy. It's a great feeling to play here in my first main draw here in Roland Garros. Everyone is is really hungry to qualify to the main draw, so for me it's a great feeling."
Alcaraz later explained to the ATP that, "I got comfortable last week in Portugal winning the Challenger 125, then winning these three matches in qualifying."
And if Alcaraz can continue to combine his relaxed, confident demeanor with his high-quality tennis, then the rest of the men's draw needs to take notice.
But, he's not the only Spaniard to qualify, and one of the other Spanish qualifiers happened to be drawn as his first round opponent: Bernabe Zapata Miralles.
Zapata Miralles is also a recent Challenger winner. This Spaniard won the Heilbronn Challenger over another good clay-court player in Daniel Galan. Zapata Miralles only dropped 1 set all tournament and beat Galan in straight sets to lift the trophy.
The title in Heilbronn gave Zapata a career-high ranking of World No. 126 and he currently sits close to that mark at World No. 128.
In French Open qualifying, Zapata Miralles' road wasn't quite as straight-forward as Alcaraz's. Zapata Miralles dropped his first set of the qualifying tournament to Kyrian Jacquet and was down a break point late in the third set.
There was massive pressure in this match for Zapata Miralles facing a wild card outside of the top 450 in the world as a seeded qualifying player still trying to earn his first ever qualifying victory.
But, Zapata Miralles was able to pull out that match 6-4 in the third set and didn't look back. Zapata Miralles lost 9 games in the final two qualifying rounds against Dmitry Popko and Marc Polmans, dishing out 2 bagels in the process.
Zapata Miralles' return was on-point all week. After a pretty good showing on-return against Jacquet, with the Frenchman only winning 60% of his first serve points and 51% of his second serve points, Zapata Miralles turned up the heat further in his ensuing qualifying matches.
Zapata Miralles was able to hold Popko 46% first serves won and 37% second serves won, breaking him 6 times. And against Polmans, the Spaniard held him to 36% first serves won and 38% second serves won, breaking the Aussie 7 times.
So, as both players come into this match hot, how will it play out?
The two have played two matches in the past, but one was an exhibition matches during the coronavirus hiatus, so despite Alcaraz winning in straight sets, it doesn't mean much to me.
Their only "official" matches was the only Challenger final where Alcaraz didn't emerge victorious.
It was the final of the Cordenons Challenger on the red Italian clay. Both players didn't have an easy road to the final, with Zapata Miralles having to down top-seed Yannick Hanfmann in the first round and other good clay courters such as Andrea Collarini and Alejandro Tabilo, while Alcaraz moved past players like Benjamin Bonzi and No. 4 seed Facundo Bagnis.
Zapata Miralles ended up winning the match 6-2, 4-6, 6-2. He was the steadier player on the day and returned serve well, with Alcaraz winning less than 55% of his first serve points and under 50% of his second serve points.
Of course, Alcaraz's serve has improved since that match and he's able to better control his groundstrokes, but at the very least, it's a good reminder that despite Alcaraz getting a fellow (and much more unheralded) qualifier as his first match in the main draw, doesn't mean it will be an easy match.
As I've stated earlier, Zapata Miralles' return of serve is a key part of his game. His rally tolerance is top-notch and he's able to get good depth and placement on his shots, while showing a good level of aggression when the opportunity presents itself.
Zapata Miralles' forehand has a funky motion, but he makes it work for his game. He's solid on both wings and his serve does a pretty good job setting himself up from the baseline.
As mentioned before, Alcaraz's serve has really improved since that Cordenons final against Zapata Miralles. He's rolling his serves in much less than he used to and is able to get more power on that shot. Alcaraz's forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court, with the ball absolutely exploding off of his racquet from this wing.
Alcaraz's movement around the court is excellent and, if he can racquet on the ball, there's a chance he's an open alley in the court to smack a winner. Both players, but especially Alcaraz, can turn defense-into-offense very quickly.
Alcaraz is a big more erratic than Zapata Miralles, but that's because he goes bigger on his shots than his fellow Spaniard.
It will be interesting to see how his rally tolerance holds up in the main draw of the Grand Slam on his best surface when he will be the favorite to advance, despite Zapata Miralles winning their only other official match. And don't doubt Zapata Miralles on clay either. While Alcaraz has a 75% winning percentage on clay over the course of his young career, Zapata Miralles isn't a slouch on clay either, with a career winning percentage on clay of 64%.
And, that's the thing, the pressure will be firmly on Alcaraz's shoulders, with Zapata Miralles able to swing freely knowing that he's "expected" to lose. But, with both he and Alcaraz knowing that he can win the match.
Best-of-5 should Alcaraz in the sense that if he has short spurts where his hard-hitting shots from the baseline are spraying around the court, he has the time to steady himself.
But, Zapata Miralles didn't qualify and make the third round of Barcelona (in addition to the Heilbronn Challenger) for no reason. He has the game to make life very tough on the 18 year old.
So, what's my "official" prediction?
I predict that this will be a very close match, but that Carlos Alcaraz gets the better of Bernabe Zapata Miralles in a 5-set match with lots of twists and turns. Ultimately, with the way Alcaraz is hitting the forehand right now, it would be very hard to expect Zapata Miralles to get the better of Alcaraz again.
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What do you all think of this exciting matchup? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @TennisBlogger1!
