This week, instead of previewing a tournament, I am gong to look back on the previous week's tournaments and talk about some of the big headlines that came out of the tournaments. There was three tournaments last week, with first-time winners and the return of an ATP superstar, so there is a lot to talk about!
Rio de Janeiro
The biggest headline of this week in Rio de Janeiro, an ATP 500 event, is that Laslo Djere won the title. It came out that Djere's parents had died, including his father recently, and so this made the title extra special for Laslo. He beat Auger Aliassime in the Final, who also had a breakout week, in two sets, the second being really tight. Djere beat Thiem this week and Auger Aliassime beat both Fognini and Cuevas, all of which were big wins. This was Djere's first title, and to do it with his parents on his mind and in a 500 level tournament is very impressive. Auger Aliassime is only 18 years old, so he has plenty of time to get that first title.
A big story of this tournament is that the top seeds really struggled. In fact, every seed but the fifth seed, Joao Sousa lost. Of those seven other players, only one managed to even get a set, Nicolas Jarry against Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Thiem, Cecchinato, Jaziri, Schwartzman, Lajovic, and Fognini did not even get a set in their First Round losses. Now, of course, this is not quite as shocking as the stats say. Jaziri is not a clay courter and was playing against a good clay courter in Delbonis. Schwartzman had a long week in Buenos Aires and was also playing a good clay courter in Cuevas. Thiem and Fognini were playing against the eventual champion and runner up, respectively. But, still, not a great showing from the seeds.
Also, I want to shout out Hugo Dellien, he has been working so hard on the ATP Challenger Tour, and finally had his breakthrough this week, making the Quarterfinals of Rio. Also nice to see guys like Bedene and Cuevas starting to show form again, although it was a shame that Bedene got injured.
Marseilles
In Marseilles, an ATP 250 event, top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Mikhael Kuskushkin in two tight sets. This is Tsitsipas' second title, one in indoor conditions in Stockholm, and now here in the indoor conditions of Marseilles. The Final was very tight, and Kukushkin was up a break in the second set, was a point away from the double break, and got two points away when serving for the set, and in the tiebreaker. In the first set, Kukushkin had a game point to send the first set into a tiebreaker before he was broken. Tsitsipas does such a good job, in my opinion, of just hanging in there in matches, staying close, and then taking his opportunities as soon as they come. The margin that Stefanos hits his groundstrokes with is also very impressive.
Kukushkin, before the Final, was extremely impressive. Mikhail played against tough opponents such as Shapovalov, Rublev, and Humbert, but didn't drop a set until the Final. It was a great week for Mikhael, but also, I think, for Humbert, who proved his game can thrive at the ATP level, making the Semifinals, and fot David Goffin. Goffin had really been stuggling to find his form this year, but didn't drop a set in his two matches until the Semifinals, where he served for the first set, but lost the match to Tsitsipas. Goffin had a very good win over Gilles Simon in the Quarterfinals.
The second seed in the tournament was Borna Coric, but his loss to Humbert in Borna's opening match is not as bad as it initially appears. Humbert can play extraordinary tennis on a hard court, and Coric, in the quick conditions of Marseilles and having not played in a while, was just a little overmatched against Humbert, but I wouldn't worry about Coric because of this loss. Borna will be fine, I think, but just enjoys playing in slower conditions more.
Delray Beach
Delray Beach, an ATP 250 event, saw Radu Albot beat qualifier Daniel Evans in the Final, with Albot winning in a tight third-set tiebreaker, saving three match points. Like Djere, this was Albot's first title. It's interesting that, for both men, this was also their first Final too, so they were able to win despite the nerves. Albot played so well to win this title. He beat very good players in Kyrgios and Johnson, and his double bagel in the second and third set in the Semifinals against McDonald was very impressive. And then, to have the mental fortitude that he had in the Final, coming back from a set down and saving match points, was spectacular. In fact, Albot won every match this week but his first match, in three sets.
However, Evans was also great this week. He had to fight so hard, not only to get through qualifying, having to come back from a set down in his qualifying match, but also in his First Round. He played defending champion and three seed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Evans came back from a set down, and Tiafoe served for the match in the second set, and had a break lead in the third set. Evans also beat very good players, such as Seppi in the Quarterfinals and second set John Isner in the Semifinals, coming back from a set down against Isner too. Evans destroyed a good player in Lloyd Harris in the Round of 16. losing only two games in that match. Evans will win an ATP title soon, I am confident about that.
The one seed was Juan Martin del Potro. This was very exciting news, because del Potro had been out injured for quite some time, and this was his first tournament back. del Potro had a very good first tournament back, winning a couple matches before losing in a tight third-set tiebreaker to McDonald. McDonald had a good week himself, with that win over del Potro highlighting his Semifinals run.
And so, that is a short recap of ATP tennis last week. With two ATP 500 events, in Dubai and Acapulco, and an ATP 250 in Sao Paolo, there will be plenty more ATP action this week. Roger Federer has already won his first match in Dubai, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets, and Rafael Nadal returns to take on Mischa Zverev in the First Round of Acapulco.
Monday, February 25, 2019
Monday, February 18, 2019
ATP Rio de Janeiro Preview
Last week, I decided to preview the ATP event in Buenos Aires. This week, because I love clay court tennis, I decided to preview the ATP event in Rio de Janeiro. This event is bigger than Buenos Aires, with 500 points, as opposed to 250 in Buenos Aires. Therefore, the stakes are high and this is a great chance, given the small number of top players playing, to get a big point haul.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
Monday, February 11, 2019
ATP Buenos Aires Preview
I thought for my next post I would give a tournament preview, and since I love clay court tennis, I chose Buenos Aires. This ATP 250 tournament should be a very good one. In last week's South American clay court tournament, Juan Ignacio Londero got his first ever ATP World Tour title, beating Guido Pella in three sets in the Final. Londero played well all week, attacking opponents with his potent forehand, and playing smart clay court tennis. As someone who's watched Londero climb through the rankings, it was great to see. Pella also played an excellent tournament. Guido had three big wins in a row, beating Ramos, Schwartzman, and Cuevas. On a clay court, beating those three in a row is not an easy feat.
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
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