The Australian Open always has a level of uncertainty surrounding it. Whose good form will continue into the upcoming season? Who's trained well in the off-season? How will players handle the heat of an Australian summer? And will be there be a player making their major semifinal debut, like Hyeon Chung and Stefanos Tsitsipas in years past?
The 2020 version of these questions will be answered in Melbourne in the next couple of weeks! Here, I give my best predictions for the Australian Open. I fully expect most of these predictions to blow up in my face.
Oh well.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. Nick Kyrgios Beats Rafael Nadal in Round of 16
Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios certainly have a history. It's clear that Nadal doesn't like Kyrgios and Kyrgios doesn't like Nadal. Kyrgios also tends to his play his best tennis against Nadal. So, what better drama than for Nadal to meet Kyrgios at Nick's home major?
The draw sets up nicely for this to happen. Nadal shouldn't lose a second set going into the fourth round. Hugo Dellien and then the winner of Federico Delbonis/Joao Sousa is about as easy of a first two rounds as Nadal could have hoped for. None of those three players have the weapons to make Nadal uncomfortable. Delbonis does have a little power in his game, but he's so inconsistent that Nadal would have a field day playing Federico. These matches should warm Nadal up nicely. The seed he would face in the third round is Pablo Carreno Busta, another player who does not hit particularly big from either his serve nor groundstrokes and who would not be a threat to Rafa.
Kyrgios' draw also sets up well for a Round of 16 meeting. Sonego in the first round, while having a bigger serve and forehand, has been comfortably handled by Nick in the past and I don't suspect that he has the game to hang with a motivated Nick. He would then take on the winner of Cuevas and Simon. Cuevas has had a terrible start to the season and would get blown off the court by Kyrgios. Simon's ability to keep rallies going might bother Kyrgios somewhat, but Kyrgios' clear advantage of serve, and thus ability to get into lots of Simon's service games, bodes well for his chances. The seed on the other side of Kyrgios' mini-section is Karen Khachanov, who after a very beginning to the season, has started to fall apart. It's not good that he didn't get a break point and Lajovic's serve at ATP Cup and then he lost immediately to John Millman in Auckland.
Kyrgios likes how Nadal's ball sits up in his strike zone. Kyrgios will also have the crowd behind him. In a match like this, it's also important to remember that Rafa really didn't have much recovery time during the off-season. Even his Abu Dhabi exhibition match with Stefanos Tsitsipas was an intense and long match. Nadal also looked slightly off during ATP Cup, without his usual abundance of energy.
This is setting up well for a Nick Kyrgios upset.
2. Casper Ruud Makes 2nd Week of Major for the First Time
Casper Ruud started off the season very strong at ATP Cup. Ruud went 2-1, with wins over John Isner and Fabio Fognini. His loss to Daniil Medvedev is nothing to scoff over. It's clear that Ruud has put in the work over the offseason, and this is translating to his results on-court.
Ruud is known for his forehand. It's clear that he trains at the Nadal Academy, because he tries to emulate Nadal, just a right-handed version of him. The spin and force on his forehand are very difficult for opponents to handle.
Ruud's first round is against Egor Gerasimov, by no means a pushover. But, Gerasimov has not started off the season strong, losing both of his matches so far. He lost to Marton Fucsovics in the first round of Doha and then lost to Harold Mayot in his opening match in the Bendigo II Challenger. While Mayot is an up-and-coming player, that was a match Gerasimov really should be winning at this point in his career.
Yes, I know he probably would have to play Alexander Zverev in the second round. But, Zverev played terribly at the ATP Cup. Zverev only won one set during three consecutive losses to Alex De Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Denis Shapovalov. That doesn't exactly exude confidence in Zverev for this major. Not to mention, that Zverev has repeatedly fallen short of expectations when it comes to the grand slams.
If their ATP Cup forms continue onto the Australian Open, I fully expect Ruud to beat Zverev. Then, in a potential third round against likely Nicoloz Basilashvili (the other seed in the mini-section)/Kwon Soon-Woo/Fernando Verdasco, Ruud would have a very respectable shot to reach his first ever slam second week.
3. Tommy Paul Makes Some Noise
Tommy Paul has been getting better and better throughout the past couple of seasons and based on how he's played in Adelaide, it seems that he ready to stay on the ATP Tour. In Adelaide, Paul has qualified and made the semifinals without dropping a set. This includes wins over Nicolas Jarry, Aljaz Bedene, Pablo Cuevas, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
In the Australian Open draw, he is in a tough mini-section, facing Leonardo Mayer in the first round, and then potentially Grigor Dimitrov in his second match, which would precede Denis Shapovalov/Jannik Sinner in his third match.
Given such a draw, it's hard to predict that Paul is going to run through his draw and make the fourth. But, what I can comfortably state is that Paul will make some noise. I think at the very least, he will beat Mayer and play Dimitrov incredibly close.
Many may only know Paul for challenging Thiem in the first round of Roland Garros last season. But, Paul has gotten even better since that match. Paul's serve and forehand in Adelaide have been very impressive. Huge serve and then dictating play very well with his heavy forehand.
Paul and Ruud's games actually remind me of each other's and the thing that both of them are doing well is defending the backhand side.
4. Novak Djokovic Makes Final With Ease
If you are a Novak Djokovic fan and initially look at his draw, you might see a bunch of landmines that would prevent him from reaching the final. However, I see it differently. I think Djokovic has a relatively straightforward path to the final.
His first round match is against Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff is a big-server and someone who can hit the cover off of the ball. However, in their two head to head matchups, Djokovic has not dropped a set. In fact, in their last match at the French Open last season, Djokovic only dropped seven games over the course of three sets! Djokovic, the best returner in tennis history, handles power players very well, and at his best tournament, should not be troubled by Struff.
Tatsuma Ito nor any qualifier (who Ito will have to play in the first round) have the game to match Djokovic. Even guys like Emil Ruusuvuori and JJ Wolf would get completely neutralized by Djokovic's game.
In the third round, Djokovic would likely face Dan Evans or Yoshihito Nishioka. Evans, while having a magnificent ATP Cup, could very well be run down due to the ATP Cup and Adelaide. His touch shots and backhand slice also wouldn't trouble Djokovic. Nishioka, with his heavy lefty forehand, has the game where he will try to out-grind opponents from the baseline. Only Nadal has the ability to do that against Djokovic, although perhaps Medvedev will able to do that soon. Nishioka doesn't hit a hard enough ball to be able to trouble Novak.
Djokovic's round of 16 opponent would likely be one of Diego Schwartzman/Lloyd Harris/Dusan Lajovic. Lloyd Harris doesn't have the rally tolerance to trouble Djokovic and Novak would be able to dictate play against Schwartzman /Lajovic.
Stefanos Tsitsipas or Roberto Bautista Agut is the likely quarterfinal opponent. Tsitsipas has shown the ability to beat Djokovic in best-of-three, but a best-of-five win at the Australian Open is another animal. Tsitsipas would have to flatten out his groundstrokes and play at a higher risk level for, in all probability, four to five hours. I don't trust Tsitsipas to be able to do this.
Bautista Agut has the ability to hang with Djokovic from the baseline in long rallies, but Djokovic's advantage from the baseline wing, better serve, and ability to convert his opportunities when he sees openings during rallies sets him apart from Bautista Agut.
Roger Federer is the likely semifinal matchup for Djokovic. That would obviously be tough, but I think Djokovic is happier to see Federer on his side of the draw than Medvedev. In ATP Cup, Medvedev pushed Djokovic to the brink and point-after-point turn into long battles. Federer, despite dominating Djokovic at the ATP Finals, is a little older and has a pretty tough draw. Krajinovic potentially in the second round, Hurkacz/Millman in the third, fourth round against Dimitrov/Shapovalov/Sinner/Paul, with a quarterfinal against Berrettini/Coric would be pretty brutal. While it is absolutely ridiculous to count Federer out, playing against a tired Federer wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Djokovic.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Corentin Moutet vs Marin Cilic
This should be a really fun match. Corentin Moutet just reached the final in Doha, beating Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, and Stanislas Wawrinka in succession. Moutet's game is very entertaining to watch. He utilizes a lot of variety, using all areas of the court and coming to net often. The different spins he puts on his groundstrokes can befuddle opponents.
Moutet is going up against Marin Cilic, who has had an average start to the season. Discounting the exhibition in Kooyong, Cilic went 2-1, but neither of his wins were against top 90 players. Cilic has a big serve and really goes after his groundstrokes, but when he is off, he is really off. It will be very interesting to see how he handles Moutet's eclectic game.
If I had to predict this match, I would say that Cilic wins a tight one. Despite their recent forms, Cilic is still the better player. But, with that said, expect Moutet to keep the fans engaged and the score close.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Monfils over Kyrgios in 5
Medvedev over Goffin in 4
Federer over Berrettini in 4
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 3
Semifinals
Medvedev over Monfils in 4
Djokovic over Federer in 4
Final
Djokovic over Medvedev in 5
Novak Djokovic will be your 2020 Australian Open champion!
