Men's US Open Draw Thoughts

Well, we didn't know if this time would come. Back in March, everything on the tennis calendar was in doubt and it looked like the coronavirus pandemic might just take away the tennis season. But, we've made it here and the main draws for the women's and men's US Open have been released!

In this article, I examine the men's US Open draw, giving my thoughts and some predictions. I totally expect half of my semifinalists to be out by the third round.

That's how these things work.

Note: The full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Top Seeds Fall Early

This is probably common sense, but I would feel foolish not putting it in here. With the amount of time off for the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone's preparation for the US Open being different, it's very hard to judge form coming into this tournament. A single tournament ("Cincinnati") surely did not give us all of the details needed to judge players' forms.

So, this means that top seeds can vulnerable, especially those that have tough draws early. Despite success in Cincinnati this week, No. 8 Roberto Bautista Agut has to play the brick wall, Tennys Sandgren, in the first round. No. 7 seed David Goffin has to play Reilly Opelka in the first round. 

If these top 8 seeds are not playing at a high level early on, they could easily fall in these first round encounters, or in the subsequent round or two if they face a dangerous opponent. It's very hard to say, however, whether or not this will occur.

2. A Lot of Wild Cards Make it Past the First Round

A few of the wild cards for the US Open have favorable draws. (Note: this is the original wild card list). The draws for the wild cards in the first round are quite good. 

Michael Mmoh takes on Joao Sousa in the first round. Joao Sousa has been out-of-form and is vulnerable for the upset. Mitchell Krueger gets Pedro Sousa as his first round opponent. Pedro Sousa is a clay courter who has not played on hard courts much this season at all and retired from his last exhibition match with an injury.

Ulises Blanch is one of my favorite under-the-radar players. Has a massive serve and forehand and can overwhelm opponents with pace. He takes on Cristian Garin in the first round. Garin is best on clay and has a 1-6 record on hard courts this year. Blanch can certainly cause an upset. A potential second round matchup against Mikhail Kukushkin (who plays Attila Balazs in the first round) would be tough, but not the most difficult opponent he could have faced.

Brandon Nakashima is one of the most heralded young Americans and he has a winnable first round match against Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi was starting to look his age in the exhibition events I saw him play during the pandemic and Nakashima has a big advantage in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

JJ Wolf has Guido Pella in the first round, a player who has had to quarantine due to his trainer getting COVID-19. He hasn't spent much time recently on the practice court, a huge disadvantage with the the best-of-five format at the US Open. Wolf has a realistic chance to make the second round too, with a potential matchup against Roberto Carballes Baena or Feliciano Lopez. Carballes Baena is by-far best on clay and Lopez is 38 years-old and who knows if his fitness is at a level where he can win consecutive best-of-five matches at this point in his career.

Finally, Maxime Cressy, one of the most controversial players from the ATP Challenger Tour,  has a favorable first round draw against Josef Kovalik. Kovalik is a clay courter who has barely played on hard courts all season. This is a perfect chance for Cressy to frustrate Kovalik with his huge serve-and-volley game. A win would also most likely give Cressy a chance to see how his game measures up against young ATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. 

That would be fun.

3. Stefanos Tsitsipas Makes a Second Major Semifinal

I think that the draw sets up really well for Tsitsipas to make the semifinals. A first rounder against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who lost all four exhibition matches during the pandemic (on clay) and is yet to win a set in two meetings with Tsitsipas is not threatening to the Greek.

It would seem that Tsitsipas is getting more comfortable playing big servers. His time competing against players like Anderson, Isner, Opelka, and Raonic will serve him well against (potentially) Cressy in the second round. Cressy might get under Tsitsipas' skin with his antics, but Tsitsipas will get enough returns and passing shots to give the American fits.

Borna Coric is the seed in his mini-section. Coric had coronavirus, so who knows how his body will react to the best-of-five format. His results in general (exhibition and "Cincinnati") have not been promising post-coronavirus. In addition, he doesn't really have anything in his game to hurt Tsitsipas with.

The top seeds in the other section are Cristian Garin and Dusan Lajovic. Garin, as I've mentioned, is best on clay and I think has a real shot to lose to Blanch in the first round. Lajovic had a lot of success earlier this year at ATP Cup and the Australian Open, but has struggled mightily lately. Dating back to Lajovic's loss to Soon-woo Kwon in Acapulco, including exhibitions, Lajovic has lost his last seven matches. I don't have confidence in him to make a run right now. 

A player like Jordan Thompson could make Tsitsipas play a physical match in the round of 16, but I believe that Tsitsipas would eventually overpower him.

In the quarterfinals, it would potentially be a matchup with Alexander Zverev. I'm not convinced, with Zverev's serving woes, that he could even make it to the last eight with Tsitsipas. Other seeded players on the other side of the quarter include Diego Schwartzman, who wasn't great in Cincinnati, and Hubert Hurkacz, who's been struggling to find his game recently, and Adrian Mannarino, who looked very rusty in his loss to Millman at the Western & Southern Open.

I feel very confident thinking that Tsitsipas will be a semifinalist at the US Open, taking another big step in his blooming career.

4. Novak Djokovic Wins Another US Open

Djokovic has done it three times before and without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the draw,  I feel confident that Djokovic can win a fourth US Open. Yes, the neck could become a concern, but Djokovic has looked very impressive at the Western & Southern Open since that first match against Ricardas Berankis.

The draw sets up very well for Djokovic. Thiem and Medvedev are on the other half and the seeded opponent in his mini-section is Jan-Lennard Struff, who Djokovic just beat comfortably in "Cincinnati". Djokovic could play John Isner in the fourth round, but Djokovic's game is centered around his return and Isner was a little below his normal level in "Cincinnati". 

The top-eight seed in his section, David Goffin, has (as I mentioned before) a brutal first round matchup against Reilly Opelka and doesn't have the game to outduel Djokovic from the baseline.

Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals would be very tough, but if Djokovic can make the semifinals, it would mean he is locked-in and I can't see Djokovic losing to Tsitsipas in the best-of-five format. Djokovic would eventually force too many errors from the Tsitsipas racquet.

In a final against Medvedev or Thiem, Djokovic would be able to outlast either, much like he did against Thiem in the Australian Open final earlier this season.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tennys Sandgren

We are going to see some fantastic baseline play in this one. Maybe it's my preference for baseliners compared to big-servers, but I am fascinated to see what happens in this one. Will Bautista Agut's long week at the Western & Southern Open affect his play in New York? He's certainly looked impenetrable from the baseline this past week. 

Sandgren made the second major quarterfinal of his career at the Australian Open this year. He's so hard for opponents to hit through and can counterpunch at such a high level. It will take a lot for either guy to end points and so it could really be a battle of fitness out there between Bautista Agut and Sandgren.

Who will be able to get on top of points? What creative ways will these guys come up with to get an edge in this match? How will these guys hold up physically in their first best-of-five match following the hiatus? 

I can't wait to watch and see! My prediction would be Bautista Agut in 5.

Walking "Byes"

I'm hesitant to add to this section, just because following the time off, so much is up-in-the-air. But, I have a couple players who I just can't see being a threat in their first round matches.

1.  Go Soeda

Go Soeda takes on Matteo Berrettini in the first round. He should provide very little resistance against Berrettini. Soeda hasn't played a single match, exhibition or otherwise, since the beginning of March, where he lost in straight sets to Emilio Gomez. Now, rusty and playing in the best-of-five format, it seems like this should be about as easy as could be for last year's semifinalist Berrettini.

Soeda wouldn't win regardless, but he would have put up more of a fight before the pandemic than he should now.

2. Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien was also involved in the coronavirus issue that Pella also faced. Dellien is a clay courter who is not great on hard courts to begin with and has last played a match (exhibition or not) in March.

Combine that with his matchup against Marton Fucsovics, a player who looked fantastic at the Western & Southern Open, and it's looking like this should be a beatdown.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Krajinovic in 4

Tsitsipas over Zverev in 3

Medvedev over Berrettini in 5

Raonic over Thiem in 4

Semifinals

Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 4

Medvedev over Raonic in 4

Final

Djokovic over Medvedev in 5

WTA Palermo Preview

Professional tennis is finally back! After months of exhibition events, we have finally reached the return of the WTA Tour in Palermo, Italy. This red clay tournament has a decent player field and should provide a great week of tennis! When the coronavirus outbreak first shut down professional sports, there was huge uncertainty on when tennis would return. Yet, here we are, even if fans aren't allowed into the venue.

The official drawsheet is here.

First Quarter

The first quarter of the draw features of showdown between two former French Open quarterfinalists: No. 1 seed Petra Martic (2019) and Alison Van Uytvanck (2015). There are a couple other dangerous players in this section of the draw, with No. 5 seed Elise Mertens and Daria Kasatkina also nearby. 

I think that Martic should get past Van Uytvanck in the first round. Martic's game fits the slower clay courts much better than Van Uytvanck's. Van Uytvanck likes faster, lower-bouncing courts where she can be aggressive and use her variety. In the next round, look for Martic to take on a qualifier or lucky loser (who I think beats Flipkens). Martic should have the game to beat whatever qualifier or lucky loser she faces.

In the other section of this quarter, Elise Mertens will take on a qualifier or lucky loser in the first round. This match could be closer than many might think, as Mertens is coming in cold after a pandemic, while the qualifier will have played a couple matches in Palermo already. Look for Mertens to squeeze by and advance. Expect Mertens to take on Kasatkina in the next round, who will have to squeeze by Jasmine Paolini in her first round match.

Mertens has a bit too much controlled aggression compared to Kasatkina, who might find that the consistency that is a pillar of her game is not fully back following the pandemic. 

That leaves us a quarterfinal showdown between Martic and Mertens. Mertens leads the head to head 2-0 (although they've never played on clay) and I think that her baseline game is a little more impressive than Martic's. Because of that, I have Mertens as the first semifinalist.

Second Quarter

The second quarter of the draw features No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit, who is coming off a win over Jelena Ostapenko in an exhibition event. Kontaveit takes on Patricia Maria Tig in the first round, a solid clay courter herself. However, Kontaveit has the power to make Tig very uncomfortable. 

Look for Kontaveit to start the restart strong and go to the second round where she I expect her to take on Laura Siegemund. I give Siegemund the edge over Begu because Siegemund has played significantly more tennis than Begu during the hiatus and there should be less rust for her. While Siegemund can make opponents uncomfortable with her all-court game, Kontaveit should be able to handle it.

The other section of the quarter has the spotlight on Donna Vekic. Vekic's first match is against Arantxa Rus, who plays a tricky lefty game. Vekic doesn't have a ton of margin on her groundstrokes, so I wonder how she will hold up after not having played a ton of matches in the past few months. But, I trust her to get by Rus, as she is the much better player.

Vekic should take on Polona Hercog in the next round. Hercog, a wiley veteran, has a tough-to-handle backhand slice and solid rally tolerance. Hercog will upset Vekic and advance to the quarterfinals.

In the quarters, Kontaveit will take on Hercog. Kontaveit has impressed me all season, she can play well on clay, and I see no reason why she won't be able to easily take care of Hercog. Hercog doesn't have the game to really hurt Kontaveit and the Estonian should reach the semifinals.

Third Quarter

This quarter of the draw includes No. 3 seed Maria Sakkari. She will take on Kristyna Pliskova in her first round match. Pliskova's game is largely based on her huge lefty serve, but she doesn't have much rally tolerance, so she's in trouble when her serve isn't on-point. Sakkari also has a high-quality return game and doesn't make too many unforced errors. This can really make Pliskova uncomfortable.

I then have Sakkari facing Sorana Cirstea. Cirstea faces former French Open finalist Sara Errani in the first round. However, this version of Errani is a shell of her former self. Cirstea both isn't steady enough from the baseline and doesn't have enough power to hurt Sakkari very much. Expect Sakkari to advance to the final eight.

But, who will she play? No. 8 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova had a wonderful 2019 season. She was often able to overpower her opponents. However, she has a tough first round opponent in Kristina Mladenovic.  Given that Mladenovic retired from her previous exhibition match, her health is in question. The Russian also has a bigger game than Mladenovic and will be able to control exchanges from the baseline. Alexandrova wins and advances to the second round.

I then think that Alexandrova will take on Fiona Ferro. Ferro has also played her exhibitions on hard court, but it's hard to deny the results. Ferro has won ten (exhibition) matches in a row and only dropped four sets. All of that winning breeds confidence and Ferro, who is an adept clay courter as well, should be able to handle Alexandrova in their second round encounter.

That leaves Ferro to take on Sakkari in the quarterfinals. Again, all of the competing and winning from Ferro recently will pay off. Sakkari hasn't played any competitive tennis at all since the pandemic began, which is in sharp contrast to Ferro. I expect Ferro to feel more comfortable out there than Sakkari, who would still only be in her third match back. Ferro will be the third semifinalist.

Fourth Quarter

This quarter is headed by Marketa Vondrousova, the No. 2 seed. Vondrousova should easily take care of whatever qualifier or lucky loser she plays. She's played fairly well during her exhibition matches on clay, including an impressive win over Petra Kvitova. In the second round, Vondrousova should take on Rebecca Peterson. Peterson has a dangerous first round matchup against Camila Giorgi. However, I can't see Giorgi's extremely high-risk game to fair well in her first match back, especially on clay.

Peterson is a solid player with good controlled aggression. However, Vondrousova has a little more power and her lefty game is especially tough to handle on clay. Vondrousova should move on to the quarterfinals.

The other seeded player in this section is No. 7 seed Dayana Yastremska. Yastremska likes to hit the ball big and control the baseline. However, like Giorgi, will she be able to play her best so soon after the hiatus on a surface that doesn't suit her game? Sara Sorribes Tormo is a perfect first round opponent for her, as Sorribes Tormo has no weapons to hurt Yastremska. Yastremska wins.

The Ukranian will then most likely face Tamara Zidansek in the second round. This is where I see an upset occurring. I am very high on Zidansek's game on clay. She can really control the court with her heavy forehand and make opponents very uncomfortable. She should beat Yastremska to face Vondrousova in the quarterfinals.

However, Zidansek's run should stop in the quarterfinals. The matchup of the Vondrousova forehand to the Zidansek backhand is more in Vondrousova's favor compared to the Zidansek forehand versus the Vondrousova backhand. For this reason, Vondrousova should be able to get past Zidansek and take her place in the semifinals.

Semifinals

Our first semifinal matchup will be No. 5 seed Elise Mertens vs No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit. Mertens leads the head to head 2-1, although this will be their first matchup on clay. However, I think that Kontaveit is the craftier player and has a bit more power than Mertens. I see Kontaveit as a top 10 player in the near future and it gives me a little more confidence when I see that she recently beat Ostapenko, as it means her form is at a good level. Mertens is so solid and should make it close, but I see Kontaveit as our first finalist. Just my gut feeling.

The second semifinal is going to be unseeded Fiona Ferro against No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Again, Vondrousova's lefty forehand on clay is a huge factor in this match. That shot is a major reason why Vondrousova reached the French Open final last year. Ferro will be full of confidence, but ultimately, Vondrousova's game just has a little higher of a ceiling on clay and she should be able to command more baseline exchanges. Vondrousova will be our second finalist.

Final

Our final is No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit vs No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Vondrousova leads the head to head 1-0, but that matchup was on a hard court. This is a tough match to call between two up-and-coming stars. However, it comes down to who's game do I trust not to break down. And on a clay court, Vondrousova's game is more steady than Kontaveit's.

Vondrousova should be able to set herself up well with her serve and I think that she will get the upper-hand in baseline exchanges. 

Marketa Vondrousova will be the WTA Palermo champion!