The US Open is almost here! We have reached the final major of the 2019 season and players will have one more chance to win a grand slam before the season's end. While in previous blog posts this season, I have done draw breakdowns for the majors, I am going to stray a little from that here. I will be giving my general thoughts about the draw first, before moving on to predictions a very brief analysis.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. The Big 3 are in the semifinals of a major again
You definitely shouldn't be surprised by this, but I'm just putting it in here for completeness' sake. The Big 3, consisting of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in the best-of-five format. During both the French Open and Wimbledon, three of the four semifinalists were the members of the Big 3, and 5 of the 6 major finalists this season were members of the Big 3. It just doesn't seem fair, but it's reality.
Beating these guys during majors, where the best-of-five format takes away some of the variability in results, has been close to impossible for the vast majority of the field. Sure, a guy like Kyrgios could theoretically do it, but what are the chances he even makes it to the first Big 3 member he would face, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals? Very slim.
2. Grigor Dimitrov has a very good tournament
Dimitrov has been at the butt of jokes this year, given his horrid form, losing seven of his previous eight non-exhibition matches, with a close win over Steve Johnson in Los Cabos his only win. But, with that said, he looked much better last week in Cincinnati against Wawrinka, coming within a tiebreak of beating the three-time major champion.
Dimitrov's draw is also very favorable. Getting an out-of-form Andreas Seppi in the first round is not bad at all, and the potential seeds he would face are not the most intimidating group to play right now (Borna Coric, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori). Raonic retired from his last match in Montreal with injury, while Coric and Nishikori both did not look to be near their best form in Cincinnati. If Dimitrov can beat Seppi and gain some momentum, he could play himself in the form he needs to make a deep run.
3. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas Both Lose in the First Round
No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev has a very tough first round opponent in Radu Albot. Having won a hard court ATP title in Delray Beach and having had a solid summer hard court, Albot won't be an easy out for Zverev. Albot recently beat Marin Cilic in Cincinnati, getting a ton of balls back in play and counterpunching well. Zverev might feel the need to try to end points early and get some more juice on his serve. This might not be the best idea, given that he hit 20 double faults in his previous match in Cincinnati against Miomir Kecmanovic. Zverev has also not adjusted to the best-of-five format as well as his ranking and other accolades would suggest. He's never been past the quarterfinals of a major, and never been to the quarterfinals away from Roland Garros.
No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is at a bit of a summer standstill. He's just 3-3 since Wimbledon and has lost his last three matches. He faces one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, Andrey Rublev. Rublev made the quarterfinals of Cincinnati, beating Roger Federer along the way. In addition, Rublev went to the quarterfinals of Winston-Salem before eventually losing to Denis Shapovalov. This feels like the makings of an upset with Rublev high in confidence, and Tsitsipas lower in confidence. While following the French Open, it seemed the gulf between these players was massive, it does not feel that way anymore.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets to Another Slam Semifinal
Roberto Bautista Agut surprised many when he reached the Wimbledon semifinal, but perhaps, the only thing surprising about it was that his first major semifinal was on grass instead of hard (his best surface). Roberto Bautista Agut's game isn't based on hot shots, or blowing his opponents off the court, but instead is based on consistency, placement, and patience. Bautista Agut hits a fairly flat ball, spreads his shots around the court well, and waits for his opening to attack. Bautista Agut's speed around court is also very impressive and opponents often will press too hard in an effort to get balls past him, trying to create openings when there aren't any available.
Bautista Agut's draw is manageable. The draw in his 16th of the draw is Matteo Berrettini, who is out of form, and who might not even make it to Bautista Agut in the third round. A potential round of 16 match against Rublev, Tsitsipas, or Kyrgios wouldn't be easy, but you I expect Bautista Agut to out-grind any of the players mentioned. A matchup with Thiem or Monfils in the quarterfinals would also be tough. Thiem and Monfils, however, has not been hot-and-cold recently. Monfils did beat Bautista Agut in the Montreal quarterfinal, but I don't trust his fitness over the course of a best-of-five match.
5. Qualifier Hyeon Chung Plays Rafael Nadal Close in the Third Round
Current World No. 151 Hyeon Chung has been injured for much of the past year, but when he's playing well, he's an extremely difficult player to deal with. Chung is best known for making the semifinals of the 2018 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic along the way in straight sets. Chung has won nine Challenger titles in his career, no easy feat, including a straight sets win over Yuichi Sugita in Chengdu during his comeback earlier this month.
During qualifying, Chung destroyed his opponents, giving up no more than three games in a set and easily advancing to the main draw. It's clear that Chung is quickly elevating his game up to levels of his past. Chung's game is effective due to his footspeed, anticipation, and footwork, especially on hard courts. He has good strength, as well, often getting power on balls that he initially looks out of position to get a good hit on.
Chung's first round against Ernesto Escobedo won't be easy. Escobedo recently won a Challenger title himself and when his game is clicking, can hit opponents off of the court. However, I expect Chung to counterpunch well in that match and come through it. In the second round, Chung would play either Fernando Verdasco or Tobias Kamke. Verdasco retired from his most recent match in Cincinnati against Benoit Paire and is not in the best form coming into this tournament. Kamke is also a qualifier and doesn't have the weapons to beat Chung.
Then, in the third round, there would most likely be a showdown between Hyeon Chung and Rafael Nadal. While Nadal certainly looked impressive in winning Toronto, he will find it difficult to hit through Chung's defenses, just as Djokovic struggled at the Australian Open a couple years ago. Chung will come into the match with both the confidence and big-match major experience that will cause him to be less intimidated by Nadal. Nadal's extreme-topspin forehand to the Chung backhand won't be as effective as Nadal would like, as Chung is able to move to his backhand and strike it very cleanly.
With that said, it probably won't be enough to beat an in-form Nadal. But, I expect Chung to keep the match close, winning at least one set and keeping two of the other sets close. However, don't be shocked if this is a five-setter.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Denis Shapovalov
Yes, it seems kind of cheesy for me to pick this All-Canadian matchup featuring the two young stars that we saw in this exact stage last season, but it really is a compelling match. Shapovalov won last year's match in a retirement, with Shapovalov up 4-1 in the third set. The match is well-known for their emotional embrace following the match. No. 18 seed Auger-Aliassime got his revenge this year, beating Shapovalov in straight sets in Madrid.
Shapovalov has really struggled since making the Miami semifinals, having failed to win two matches in a row since Miami. However, Shapovalov recently added Mikhail Youzhny to his team in a coaching trial, and has looked much better in Winston-Salem, winning three matches in a row in straight sets to make the semifinals. While he lost to Hubert Hurkacz, this was a very good week for Shapovalov. Auger-Aliassime played very well for a long period of time this season, making three ATP Tour final. However, he has cooled down a bit since losing in the third round of Wimbledon, going 3-3 during the summer hard court season.
Tough to choose a winner in this one. You could make a convincing case for either player. I think Shapovalov has gotten himself in better form than Auger-Aliassime recently, and because of this, I am picking Shapovalov to win this one.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Medvedev in 4
Federer over Dimitrov in 3
Bautista Agut over Monfils in 5
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Semifinals
Djokovic over Federer in 5
Nadal over Bautista Agut in 4
Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
I have basically given my rational for the four semifinalists in my blurbs above. The Big 3 are just so much better than the rest of the field and Bautista Agut is in the form of his life and I trust him to win more than I trust the rest of the field, sans the Big 3. Medvedev gets major props for winning Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in the process), along with making the finals of Washington DC and Montreal. However, I don't think he will be able to redline over the course of best-off-five like he did against Djokovic in Cincinnati with the best-of-three format, and we saw in Australia that Medvedev will not be able to wear Djokovic down from the baseline in the best-of-five format.
In terms of the semifinals, I think that the loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon holds a lot of scar tissue for Federer and that Federer hasn't completely recovered, mentally, from that match. In another tight, huge match at a major against Djokovic, I just trust Djokovic more to come through in the big moments. Djokovic is in Federer's head, at this point. While Bautista Agut can out-grind many of his opponents, Rafael Nadal is not one of them. Nadal is much more of a dynamic shot-maker compared to Bautista-Agut, and shoudl be able to hit with as enough angles and variety to throw off Bautista-Agut. I look for Nadal to win that match without too much worry.
I can't pick Nadal to beat Djokovic after the final in Australia. Djokovic absolutely dominated that match and has won his last six straight sets in major finals on hard courts, winning both last year's Australian Open and the 2018 US Open (against Juan Martin del Potro) in straight sets. Yes, I have Djokovic playing 5 sets the match before against Federer, but a day' in-between matches should be enough, and I like Djokovic to win his third major of the year, and 17th major overall.
Novak Djokovic will be your 2019 US Open champion!
