The first time I gave Darya Kasatkina, a now-18 year old from Russia, a chance to be a real riser on the WTA Tour was on a 2015 tour stop in Bad Gastein. On the high altitude clay courts of Austria, Darya went through qualifying and even won a couple main draw matches. This included a thumping of Aleksandra Krunic, giving up only four games in the process, and a shocking three set win over Julia Goerges. And when Kasatkina went on to take a set in that quarterfinal match against former French Open Finalist Sara Errani, I knew that this young lady had the chance to be something special on the WTA Tour.
And my initial suspicions regarding Kasatkina held true in the US Open last year, where, despite coming into the tournament as a lucky loser, Kasatkina still beat another riser on tour, Daria Gavrilova in three tight sets. The fact that Kasatkina held her nerve in that third set to win 7-5 shows a lot about her mental strength and her burning desire to win. And the fact that she was able to come back in her next match and win a straight setter over another young player, Ana Konjuh, is a demonstration of who Darya is as a player.
The WTA Premier event in Moscow was, perhaps, where Kasatkina trulu proved she was no fluke. Darya, again, went through qualifying and made the Semifinals of the tournament. She had two notable wins in this tournament, a tough three-setter against Irina-Camelia Begu and a thrashing of Carla Suarez Navarro in which she lost only three games. And while Kasatkina's run ended in a tight three setter against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
So, let's look at this season. Kasatkina is 2-2 on the year, but it is one of his wins which stands out the most. In Auckland, in Darya's first match of 2016, Kasatkina beat Venus Williams 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-3 for one of the biggest wins of her career. Even after playing a physical first set, the toughness shown by Kasatkina in her matches against Gavrilova and Begu were once again seen in Darya's game. Not only did she take control of the match, but she never gave it up. And while her retirement in the next tournament in Sydney was disturbing (although possibly indicative of why she lost in the next round to Hibino), I think that Darya could be a nightmare matchup if she is healthy in Melbourne.
Speaking of Melbourne, let's look into our crystal ball for Darya at the Australian Open. In the First Round, Kasatkina plays Anna Karolina Schmeidlova. 2015 was a breakout year for Schmeidlova, however, the beginning of 2016 has not treated her as well. She is a mediocre 1-2, winning a combined four game in her two losses (including a 6-1, 6-0 loss in her last match to Monica Puig). Momentum is certainly not on Schmeidlova's side, that's for sure. Therefore, I think that Kasatkina will win this match in three sets, 6-2, 4-6, 6-1.
From there, I predict we will see Kasatkina take on Konjuh, in a rematch of Darya's straight-forward win in New York City at the US Open. I expect the same result to occur here, with Darya winning in straights. The run will end there, however, with Serena Williams looming in her section.
And while Kasatkina will lose in straight sets to Serena, her run in Melbourne will prove that Kasatkina will be a force for years to come.
Friday, January 15, 2016
Saturday, January 2, 2016
Russian Men's Tennis Will Again Rise in 2016
2015 was a year to forget for Russian men's tennis. Long gone were the days of Safin, Youhzny )at his peak), and Davydenko. In 2015, there were only three Russians in the ATP World Tour Top 100, with the highest being Gabashvili at #50, and Kuznetsov and Donskoy at numbers 79 and 90 respectively. However, I think 2016 will bring lots of good fortunes for Russians ranked between 100 and 200 in the world, with many breakthroughs in this bunch.
Mikhail Youhzny is old and on the decline, so he will be excluded from my discussion. And while I do Kudraytsev and Kravchuk can slightly improve his ranking position with continued work, I don't think time is on either of their sides. I think that the three biggest "movers" this year from Russia will be Aslan Karatsev, Andrey Rublev, and Karen Khachanov . Let's take a look at each one individually.
Aslan Karatsev
Currently 22 years old and ranked the lowest out of the three at #195, including him on the list might surprise some. After all, he did not have particularly inspiring results to end the season. But, I see a lot to like in his game. His return of serve is on the level of an ATP top 100 player. Now, you might say, "that's because he's going up against challenger competition", but even in Moscow when going up against the Kohlschreiber serve, he stayed strong. He broke serve six times in three sets in that match and was very close to winning it. That match showed me that, when Aslan plays to his abilities, he can play at a Top 50 level.
The key for Aslan will be to improve his serve. If a guy is having a particularly hot service game, such as Gombos in Bratislava in his last match of the 2015 season, then Karatsev's mediocre serves can have a debilitating effect on his game. However, as I mentioned before, when the return of serve is going and the serve is consistent enough, Aslan can soar, as evidenced by his challenger title in Kazan last year, an event in which he beat three players currently in the Top 100 in Kuznetsov, Donskoy, and Bhambri, along with beating fellow Russian (and star of this post) Kravchuk in the Final.
So, how do I predict this season will go for Aslan? Well, he's off to a good start, easily upsetting Bemelmans, a player just outside the Top 100, breaking serve four times while only getting broken once. I expect, as Karatsev continues to improve his serve, that results like this will continue. I expect Aslan to break the Top 100 in 2016 and win a grand slam match.
Andrey Rublev
2015 was a good year for Andrey Rublev (currently ranked number 185). He really announced himself in Barcelona, qualifying and then taking out Fernando Verdasco in straight sets before then taking a set off of Fabio Fognini, who once again proved this year that he can at an elite level on clay. And while Rublev did not have great results following the result in Barcelona, he did continue to have pretty good form throughout the clay season, beating top 70 player Pablo Carreno-Busta in the masters event at Rome, and then coming extremely close to beating Marin Cilic in Geneva.
But, perhaps what was most impressive for me was the scare he put into Anderson after beating higher ranked players in qualifying of the US Open. He took a set off of Kevin (a player who eventually beat Andy Murray) and even got him to 5-5 in the third set, but just couldn't pull it off. Watching some of that match, I was amazed that Rublev was able to match the power game that Anderson possesses. It showed me that he could match the level of a Top 15 player and even, if he plays his cards right, pick up the occasional victory. So, while his losses to Cilic and Anderson are just that, losses, the manner in which he competed is encouraging and definitely something to build on in the coming season.
I believe that Rublev will crack the Top 90 this season, giving him a solid base to work on for the rest of his career.
Karen Khachanov
While I, admittedly, don't know much about Karen (ranked 152 currently), I would be remiss to leave him off of this list. The 19 year old has handled the transition between being an ATP Futures Tour player to being an ATP Challenger Tour player beautifully. His year on the Challenger Tour (three titles on the Futures Tour in 2015) really went on the upswing following after the US Open. He won a Challenger event in Istanbul, shocking Sergiy Stakhovsky in the Final and sending a message to the rest of the tennis world that he will have what it takes to make it to the Top 100 (and beyond). This title included a straight set win over fellow rising star Karatsev.
And despite not making it further than the Quarterfinals of another Challenger event last season, there were glimpses of promise for Karen. Whether it be the wins over Dodig and Ward in Mons, the victory against Marchenko (albeit there was a retirement in the second set) against Marchenko in Brest, the straight set victory over Bemelmans (like Karatsev) and Ilhan in Mouilleron Le Captif, I think that Khachanov has shown that he is becoming one of the better players on the ATP Challenger Tour. His hard hitting game is showing to be especially effective on a hard too (whether indoor or outdoor), so I am excited to see what he can do in Australia!
I believe, given Khachanov's quick rise already, that he can possibly crack the Top 100 this season, although I do expect, as a young player (and explained thoroughly in my previous piece), that there will be many growing pains in 2016.
With Karatsev, Rublev, and Khachanov playing well, 2016 is looking like the year Russian tennis will again rise.
Mikhail Youhzny is old and on the decline, so he will be excluded from my discussion. And while I do Kudraytsev and Kravchuk can slightly improve his ranking position with continued work, I don't think time is on either of their sides. I think that the three biggest "movers" this year from Russia will be Aslan Karatsev, Andrey Rublev, and Karen Khachanov . Let's take a look at each one individually.
Aslan Karatsev
Currently 22 years old and ranked the lowest out of the three at #195, including him on the list might surprise some. After all, he did not have particularly inspiring results to end the season. But, I see a lot to like in his game. His return of serve is on the level of an ATP top 100 player. Now, you might say, "that's because he's going up against challenger competition", but even in Moscow when going up against the Kohlschreiber serve, he stayed strong. He broke serve six times in three sets in that match and was very close to winning it. That match showed me that, when Aslan plays to his abilities, he can play at a Top 50 level.
The key for Aslan will be to improve his serve. If a guy is having a particularly hot service game, such as Gombos in Bratislava in his last match of the 2015 season, then Karatsev's mediocre serves can have a debilitating effect on his game. However, as I mentioned before, when the return of serve is going and the serve is consistent enough, Aslan can soar, as evidenced by his challenger title in Kazan last year, an event in which he beat three players currently in the Top 100 in Kuznetsov, Donskoy, and Bhambri, along with beating fellow Russian (and star of this post) Kravchuk in the Final.
So, how do I predict this season will go for Aslan? Well, he's off to a good start, easily upsetting Bemelmans, a player just outside the Top 100, breaking serve four times while only getting broken once. I expect, as Karatsev continues to improve his serve, that results like this will continue. I expect Aslan to break the Top 100 in 2016 and win a grand slam match.
Andrey Rublev
2015 was a good year for Andrey Rublev (currently ranked number 185). He really announced himself in Barcelona, qualifying and then taking out Fernando Verdasco in straight sets before then taking a set off of Fabio Fognini, who once again proved this year that he can at an elite level on clay. And while Rublev did not have great results following the result in Barcelona, he did continue to have pretty good form throughout the clay season, beating top 70 player Pablo Carreno-Busta in the masters event at Rome, and then coming extremely close to beating Marin Cilic in Geneva.
But, perhaps what was most impressive for me was the scare he put into Anderson after beating higher ranked players in qualifying of the US Open. He took a set off of Kevin (a player who eventually beat Andy Murray) and even got him to 5-5 in the third set, but just couldn't pull it off. Watching some of that match, I was amazed that Rublev was able to match the power game that Anderson possesses. It showed me that he could match the level of a Top 15 player and even, if he plays his cards right, pick up the occasional victory. So, while his losses to Cilic and Anderson are just that, losses, the manner in which he competed is encouraging and definitely something to build on in the coming season.
I believe that Rublev will crack the Top 90 this season, giving him a solid base to work on for the rest of his career.
Karen Khachanov
While I, admittedly, don't know much about Karen (ranked 152 currently), I would be remiss to leave him off of this list. The 19 year old has handled the transition between being an ATP Futures Tour player to being an ATP Challenger Tour player beautifully. His year on the Challenger Tour (three titles on the Futures Tour in 2015) really went on the upswing following after the US Open. He won a Challenger event in Istanbul, shocking Sergiy Stakhovsky in the Final and sending a message to the rest of the tennis world that he will have what it takes to make it to the Top 100 (and beyond). This title included a straight set win over fellow rising star Karatsev.
And despite not making it further than the Quarterfinals of another Challenger event last season, there were glimpses of promise for Karen. Whether it be the wins over Dodig and Ward in Mons, the victory against Marchenko (albeit there was a retirement in the second set) against Marchenko in Brest, the straight set victory over Bemelmans (like Karatsev) and Ilhan in Mouilleron Le Captif, I think that Khachanov has shown that he is becoming one of the better players on the ATP Challenger Tour. His hard hitting game is showing to be especially effective on a hard too (whether indoor or outdoor), so I am excited to see what he can do in Australia!
I believe, given Khachanov's quick rise already, that he can possibly crack the Top 100 this season, although I do expect, as a young player (and explained thoroughly in my previous piece), that there will be many growing pains in 2016.
With Karatsev, Rublev, and Khachanov playing well, 2016 is looking like the year Russian tennis will again rise.
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