Thursday, January 13, 2022

Sebastian Korda vs Cam Norrie: 2022 Momentum at Stake in Australian Open First Round Clash

Sebastian Korda and Cam Norrie were both certainly happy with their 2021 seasons.

For Korda, it was a year that saw him win his first ATP Tour title. In the lead-up to the French Open in Parma, Korda beat Marco Cecchinato 6-2, 6-4 to take the winner's crown. It was a momentous occasion for the then-20 year old.

As Korda said to the ATP regarding the title, "This is something that I've dreamed of. I really thought I was going to get it done in Delray Beach and I was a little heartbroken."

As Korda alluded to, his breakthrough season didn't merely consist of that singular title in Parma. In his first tournament of 2021, Korda made the final of Delray Beach, truly announcing himself to the tennis world.

Korda beat Tommy Paul, John Isner,  and his opponent in Melbourne, Cam Norrie, to reach that final before falling to Hubert Hurkacz.

If you combine these results with a Quimper Challenger title and Wimbledon round of 16 appearance. And while he took his lumps over the course of the year, Korda still finished strong with wins over Aslan Karatsev and Marin Cilic at the Paris Indoors Masters 1000, even taking a set off of Daniil Medvedev in the third round.

Korda's ranking jumped from World No. 118 at the start of the 2021 season to World No. 41 at the start of this season (he's World No. 40 currently).

Cam Norrie also had a phenomenal 2021 campaign that saw him make six ATP finals and win the first two ATP Tour titles of his career.

Norrie's maiden title was in Los Cabos, where he completely defused the Brandon Nakashima's game in a 6-2, 6-2 victory. Norrie held Nakashima, who generally hits his spots on serve and is tough to break, to 41% of his service points won and broke the American's serve five times in eight service games.

But, the biggest triumph of the 2021 season for Norrie was at the end of the year in Indian Wells. During California's Masters 1000 event, Norrie was at the peak of his game.

Norrie won seven of his last eight sets in the tournament, beating tough players such as Roberto Bautista Agut, Diego Schwartzman, and Nicoloz Basilashvili in the final. 

In that final, Norrie took less chances and forced Basilashvili to hit through him. and it reflected in the winners/unforced error ratio, with Norrie hitting 10 winners to 23 unforced errors, and Basilashvili hitting 23 winners to 44 unforced errors.

Norrie told the BBC's Sonia Oxley after taking the title, "I can't really believe it. If you'd have told me I'd have won before the tournament started I wouldn't have believed you, so it's amazing."

And while Norrie didn't beat a Djokovic, Zverev, or Medvedev to take the title, it was still an impressive run of form.

The Brit rose in the rankings from World No. 71 at the beginning of 2021, to World No. 12 at the start of 2022.

However, neither Korda nor Norrie will be happy with how this season has begun, making their first-round clash of the utmost importance.

For Korda, he was diagnosed with coronavirus, so he has been isolating and unable to gain match practice heading into the Australian Open.

Norrie has started this season 0-3, not winning a match during ATP Cup losses to Alexander Zverev, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Taylor Fritz. He struggled to defend his second-serve throughout the round robin-style tournament, never winning 55% or more of his second-serve points.

While Norrie's return improved against Fritz, in his first two matches against Zverev and Auger-Aliassime, both players won over 80% of their first-serve points. Not what, perhaps, tennis fans expected to see after Cam's 2021 season.

So, coming into this first-round match at the Australian Open, there's a sense that both players need to win (for different reasons) to keep the momentum of 2021 in their favor.

So, we know this match is important, how do these two players stack up?

The No. 12 seed Norrie is a lefty with a heavy, consistent forehand. He moves well and does a good job of turning defense into offense. What can make Norrie so tricky, however, is that his backhand is flat and cuts through the court, creating a level of awkwardness, as players get completely different balls based on whether they're hitting to the forehand or backhand.

It's that awkwardness and forcing opponents to play at his pace and rhythm that can be so tough for opponents to get used to and deal with. Norrie is also very smart about when to move forward and, while he's not the best server, he does hit his spots well on return.

Korda has had a lot of success due to his power. Whether that mean hitting huge serves with pinpoint accuracy, or using his backhand to hit deep ball after deep ball that, despite not seeming to have too much topspin, keeps fall right near the baseline.

Korda's strength is his backhand, which allows him to take control of points and put opponents on the defensive. Korda also has a fairly powerful forehand, but his backhand is relatively better. The American is fairly good at the net, but is still learning when is the right time to come in.

Korda will most likely be the aggressor in many rallies during this match, trying to control the baseline and hit through the Norrie defenses. The Brit will spin his web, using his good depth, different spins, and the angles he can create to make Korda uncomfortable and produce errors from the American.

There's no real surface advantage in this match, as both Norrie and Korda have won over 55% of their matches on hard courts. Sure, Norrie is at 65% compared to 57% for Korda, but they're both competent on hard courts and the surface won't determine this match.

Here's what matters more: Norrie might have lost all three of his matches this season, but the act of playing in those matches does mean something. Korda could easily come into this match rusty, which plays right into the Brit's hands, as the unforced errors will be likely be flowing.

While Korda is probably the better player when both he and Norrie are at their best, in these circumstances, Norrie with his awkwardness, consistency, and counterpunching abilities will prevail against an undercooked Korda.

Cam Norrie will beat Sebastian Korda in four sets and advance to the second round where he will play Corentin Moutet or Lucas Pouille.