The Wimbledon draws have come out and they're full of exciting matchups that will have tennis fans glued to the action. However, the first-round matchup that excited me the most has to be a battle of Americans: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima.
Seed vs qualifier. One of the players who used to be considered the future of American tennis vs someone who is currently seen as part of the future of American tennis. A battle of players who can impose themselves from the baseline and hit their spots on-serve.
How will this matchup play out? Who will come out on top? Read on for my thoughts!
No. 31 seed Taylor Fritz is certainly grateful that this match is happening at all. The 23 year-old American suffered a massive injury during Roland Garros, tearing his meniscus during his second round Roland Garros match against Dominik Koepfer. The injury was so severe that he had to have a wheelchair take him off the court. Fritz even needed surgery, but somehow has found the strength and willpower to find a way to get ready for the meeting.
Fritz's health is certainly no guarantee. But, if he's in the draw, I'm going to assume he's healthy enough to at least compete at a good level. And if that's the case, then he certainly will present a massive challenge to Nakashima.
Fritz has won 1 ATP Tour title in his career and he lifted that winner's trophy on the grass of Eastbourne. In 2019, Fritz beat fellow American Sam Querrey in the final 6-3, 6-4.
After the match, Fritz told the ATP, "It's so amazing. I almost can't even believe it. I'm still trying to take it in...I really hope that I can continue on and progress the way Andy (Roddick) did and follow in his footsteps."
Fritz clearly saw the last Eastbourne champion from the United States, Andy Roddick, as a role model for his grass-court career.
In that Eastbourne event, Fritz served really well. He won at least 75% of his first-serve points in all 5 matches he played in the event. From the quarterfinals onwards, Fritz was only broken once. In the final against Querrey, Fritz won 89% of his first-serve points, facing only 1 break point, and he didn't get broken in that final.
However, at Wimbledon, Fritz has only made the 2nd round a couple times in his 4 appearances in the main draw. So, why has this been the case?
On the positive side, as mentioned before, Fritz's first serve is a huge weapon on faster surfaces, and is an area of his game where he's rapidly improved. Fritz's groundstrokes also are flatter and can really cut through the court on grass.
On the other hand, at times, it feels like the Fritz's backswings are little too far back for the quicker grass surface and he doesn't have an effective, low-skidding backhand slice that can do so much damage on the grass. In addition, Fritz isn't totally comfortable at the net.
So, there are aspects of Fritz's game that work supremely well on the grass, while there are other aspects that cause some concern. I guess that partially explains why, at times when he's able to play to his strengths on grass he can be dominant, while at other times, his weaknesses get exposed.
Perhaps some more time on grass last season and in the lead-up to Wimbledon this season would have been good for Fritz to continue to develop his grass-court game and try to continue to live up to the standard that Andy Roddick has set for American men, but a global pandemic and a fluke injury blew those chances.
On the other side of the net will be qualifier Brandon Nakashima. The 19 year-old American hadn't played a professional match on grass, having only competed in the juniors on grass.
And, in the Challengers leading up to Wimbledon qualifying, Nakashima showed some growing pains. Nakashima went 1-2 in the Challengers preceding Wimbledon qualifying, beat Mario Vilella Martinez and losing to Evgeny Donskoy and Thomas Fabbiano.
While Donskoy and Fabbiano are not the easiest matchups on grass, given the progression that Nakashima has shown, it was a bit disappointing that he lost those matches.
However, Nakashima seemed to put it all together during his time at qualifying in Roehampton.
The American doesn't have the biggest serve, but he hits his spots very well. He won 75% of his first-serve points in all three of his qualifying wins over Aleksander Vukic, Viktor Troicki, and Ernests Gulbis.
Nakashima also took advantage of second-serve returns. In every match Nakashima played in Roehampton, his opponents won 35% or fewer of his second-serve returns and broke 15 times over the course of the tournament.
In addition to his solid serving and returning, there are other aspects of Nakashima's game that work well on grass. Nakashima's groundstrokes are very flat and he hits his targets. Finally, Nakashima has really made it a point to improve his net-game, an aspect of tennis that is particularly important on grass. Nakashima attacks the net with authority and hits razor-sharp volleys.
Nakashima, however, doesn't have the power that would let him hit opponents off the court at times his forehand can get a little bit shaky, and like Fritz, his backhand slice could also use some work.
But, ultimately, Nakashima's qualifying campaign was a massive achievement. It was the first time in his career that he had qualified for a Major and Nakashima was clearly happy with his level of play.
Having had success at Roehampton as a junior, Nakashima explained to the ATP during his qualifying campaign, "It definitely feels pretty good coming back here. I feel comfortable with the courts..."
And, given how he performed, his comfort on the grass was very evident.
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So, how will this matchup play out?
They've never played in a non-exhibition event, although Fritz leads 2-1 in exhibitions. However, all 3 of those matches were on hard courts and there's really not much to take away from them.
Fritz will have the power advantage from the baseline, but Nakashima is more comfortable at the net and will look to impose himself on Fritz when he can.
In terms of the serve, Fritz's first serve has evolved into one of the best in the game. He won't give Nakashima many opportunities on return and Nakashima will have to be clutch in converting the opportunities given to him.
Fritz's health is certainly the biggest question mark. Will he be ready physically for best-of-five? Will he have enough time on the practice courts to hone his game? How will he respond to not playing a grass-court match in 2 years?
Given Fritz's health concerns and lack of matchplay, it's hard to expect too much from him in this one. And an in-form Nakashima who has already played 6 matches on the grass this season.
For Nakashima, he's inexperienced at the Grand Slam level. He's only played in one Major before and never outside of the United States.
Ultimately, I trust Nakashima to pull through in this match. His improved net game and aggressive attitude will come through for him here and will be the steadier player from the baseline, as a rusty Fritz will spray unforced errors.
It won't be entirely straightforward, but expect Brandon Nakashima to win in 4 sets and set up a 2nd round showdown with fellow American Steve Johnson or Dennis Novak!
