There is a certain rhythm to the ATP tennis season. Mondays/Tuesdays are packed with opening round ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour matches, the fields start to whittle down on Wednesday/Thursdays, and Friday-Sundays are the best of the week battling it out. But, this week is different. All that is left of the non-Futures season is one indoor clay Challenger in Maia and the ITF's Davis Cup. With Stefanos Tsitsipas beating Dominic Thiem in a third set tiebreak in the last ATP main tour match of the year this past weekend, it seems time to reflect on what has been a fascinating 2019 season.
Main Storylines
1. Djokovic and Nadal Dominate Majors
The four majors of the season were split evenly between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open (def. Nadal) and Wimbledon (def. Federer), while Rafael Nadal won the French Open (def. Thiem) and the US Open (def. Medvedev). Of course, the results without context barely scratch the surface of the stories of those titles. Djokovic saved 2 match points on his way to beating Roger Federer in that final. One point, in a way, changed the trajectory of the entire season for both Djokovic and Federer.
The results alone also don't explain the courageous fightback from Daniil Medvedev in the US Open final, coming back from two sets to love down and tying the match at two sets all. The results don't explain how Medvedev was within a point of leveling the fifth set after getting down break in the fifth. Yet, in the end, Nadal won.
Yet, while Federer and Medvedev were so close to making this an evenly split year of four players with one major apiece, the simple reality is that when looking back on this season years from now, the winners will be remembered in the major count and the stories of the losers will subside into the background.
It could very well be that the reason Nadal will most likely have more majors in the future is because of Federer failing to take match point against Djokovic and Medvedev failing to take break point to get back to 5-5 in the fifth. If Djokovic ends up with the most majors, then saving match points at Wimbledon and in the 2011 US Open semifinal against Federer could be the reasons why.
Amazing how the sport of tennis works.
Amazing how the sport of tennis works.
2. Younger Stars Gaining Control
While it is true that none of the younger stars in the game won a major this season, there is plenty of reason to believe that 2020 will be a breakthrough year for many of the ATP's stars, aged 23 and younger. In 2019, the younger stars started to gain some control of the ATP landscape almost exclusively dominated previously by the Big 3 (Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer).
We just witnessed the latest rising star breakthrough, with Stefanos Tsitsipas winning his first tournament larger than an ATP 250 at the ATP Finals. However, Tsitsipas really started to make progress earlier this season when he beat Roger Federer in the round of 16 from a set down. He continued his ascent towards the top of the game beating Rafael Nadal, on clay, in the Madrid semifinals. His match with Wawrinka in the fourth round of the French Open was one of the matches of the season, with viewers coming away with a positive perception of Tsitsipas' game even in defeat.
Other players to make their names better known in 2020 include Italians Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner. Berrettini, with his huge serve and nasty forehand, went on a tear around the time of Stuttgart during the grass court season. He won that tournament in Stuttgart and was generally at a very high level, barely giving opponents any opportunity on return. His backhand slice also worked very well on grass, as it is a lower bouncing surface and his slice stays very low. Berrettini's big breakthrough at a slam didn't happen at Wimbledon, where he meekly lost to Roger Federer in the round of 16. Instead, it was at the US Open where Berrettini pulled through with a deep run, making the semifinals before losing to Nadal.
Sinner hasn't had a breakthrough similar to the likes of Tsitsipas and Berrettini, but the 18 year-old Italian will almost assuredly be a mainstay on the ATP Tour shortly. Sinner, in an interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, talked about how he decided to mainly forego juniors and play professionally from a young age. This approach has clearly worked well, as Sinner started at World No. 551 in the rankings, but is currently at World No. 78, moving up over 450 places in the rankings over the course of the season. This was due to a lot of success on the ATP Challenger Tour, which saw him win three Challenger titles. He also had a sprinkling of success on the ATP main tour and won the Next Gen ATP Finals, even though there was no points attached to the event. I fully expect Sinner to win an ATP main tour title next season, if not multiple.
Other younger players who really made a statement in 2019 include Alex De Minaur, the 20 year-old Australian who won his first three ATP main tour titles in 2019. De Minaur's speed and counterpunching ability are fantastic. Denis Shapovalov had good first and final thirds of the season, making the Miami semifinals in the first third, and winning Stockholm along with an appearance in the finals of the Paris Indoors Masters 1000 in the final third. Shapovalov is learning to control his aggression better and his net game is improving. Shapovalov's fellow Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime, made three ATP finals at 18 years old.
Of course, there is also Alexander Zverev, who finished the season at a "paltry" World No. 7. The fact that this year, with a title, a Masters 1000 final, grand slam quarterfinal, and ATP Finals semifinals is seen as a ho-hum year shows the extremely high expectations that the tennis world has given to the 22 year-old.
I want to end this section with a little recognition of perhaps the biggest breakthrough of the season, 23 year-old Daniil Medvedev's rise from World No. 16 at the beginning of the season to World No. 5 currently. Sure, that isn't the biggest rise in the world, but breaking into the top 5 is a monumental task and Medvedev's run during the late summer/early fall was certainly impressive. His run included a Washington final, Canada final, Cincinnati title, US Open final, St. Petersburg title, and Shanghai title. Just typing out his run is exhausting!
Medvedev's year started with him pushing Djokovic hard in the Australian Open fourth round for Djokovic's toughest match of the tournament. Perhaps this match foreshadowed Medvedev's run to come. Medvedev was able to combine his flat groundstrokes, with top-class depth, defense, and counterpunching, making opponents very uncomfortable. Sure, he ended the year season with four straight losses, but with the physicality of his tennis and the number of matches he played from late July to the middle of October, a losing streak is to be expected in the waning matches left in his year.
3. Can't Forget About Dominic Thiem
At 26 years old, Thiem is too old for me to justify putting him in the "Younger" category, but he still deserves recognition of being, along with Medvedev and Tsitsipas, one of the best three players outside of the Big 3 this season.
Thiem finally laid to rest the (in my opinion) absurd idea that he is a clay court specialist. If you didn't think Thiem could play on hard after his epic match against Nadal in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, then you must surely be convinced now by his play on hard.
Thiem's prowess on hard courts was showcased throughout the season. Thiem beat Federer to win Indian Wells for his first Masters 1000 title. Thiem picked up two ATP 500 titles on hard/indoor hard in Beijing (def. Tsitsipas) and Vienna (def. Schwartzman). At the ATP Finals, he beat Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the group stages, then Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. While he ultimately fell to Tsitsipas in the final, he certainly had a good showing at this tournament. It's not inconceivable anymore that Thiem could win the Australian Open or US Open.
That's not to say that Thiem turned into a bum on clay courts, far from it. In fact, he was debatably the second best on the surface this year, behind, of course, Nadal. For starters, Thiem made the final of the biggest clay court event of the season: Roland Garros. This included an epic five-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. In regular tour events, Thiem won a 500 event in Barcelona and a 250 in Kitzbuhel. If Nadal gets injured or starts to dip in form, Thiem will be right there as a favorite to win the French Open.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets His Moment in the Sun
Roberto Bautista Agut had the year of his life and I think that it's important to recognize his year. For starters, Bautista Agut had his best results in majors in his career. At the Australian Open, Bautista Agut made the quarterfinals before losing to Tsitsipas. Bautista Agut beat Murray, Khachanov, and Cilic during that quarterfinal run.
Bautista Agut also made the semifinals of Wimbledon. Bautista Agut made the semifinals having lost only one set along the way, including a straight sets win over Khachanov. Bautista Agut was even able to get a set off of Novak Djokovic in his semifinal match, but ultimately lost in four sets.
Speaking of Novak Djokovic, Bautista Agut's title in Doha to start the year included a win over Djokovic in the semifinals. In the quarterfinals, Bautista Agut beat Stan Wawrinka. Bautista Agut also made the quarterfinals of three Masters 1000 events, and moved up in the rankings from World No. 24 at the start of the year to World No. 9 currently. Bautista Agut's World No. 10 ranking in August was the first time he had ever been in the top 10 before.
5. Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah Dominate Doubles
I want to recognize some of the amazing play in doubles this year, specifically by the Colombian duo of Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah.
Cabal and Farah started the year ranked as co-World No. 5s in the doubles rankings, yet they had neither had ever won a (non-mixed) doubles major. At the 2018 Australia Open, they came close, but in the final, they lost in straight sets to Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic. However, in this year's Australian Open, Cabal and Farah lost in the first round to Jack Sock and Jackson Winthrow. At the French Open, they lost in the semifinals to Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin.
Finally, at Wimbledon, the Colombian team had their breakthrough at a major. In an epic five-set Wimbledon final, Cabal and Farah beat Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in five sets for their first major title. Winning Wimbledon also meant that they would be co-World No. 1s for the first time. At the US Open, in an incredible atmosphere where many were in support of Cabal and Farah, the Colombian duo beat Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos in the final in straight sets to take the title.
Cabal and Farah would end the season as co-World No. 1s. In addition to winning their first two doubles majors, they also won Rome (Masters 1000), Barcelona (ATP 500), and Eastbourne (ATP 250). There's a certain harmony when these two are on the court together, where each player knows not only exactly where to position himself, but also have a complete understanding of where his partner will be on the court, as well. It's this ability to work together that allows the duo to be so successful.
Shoutouts to 3 Relatively Unheralded Players With Great Seasons
1. Soonwoo Kwon
Soonwoo Kwon had the season of his life in 2019. Kwon started the year ranked World No. 235, but got as high as World No. 81 before finishing the season at World No. 88. Kwon won two Challenger titles this year in Yokohama and Seoul. Kwon qualified for Wimbledon and the US Open, only dropping one set in Wimbledon qualifying. He also made the quarterfinals of his first ATP Tour event in Los Cabos before falling in three sets to Guido Pella.
Kwon has a great attitude both regarding his future ambitions and his play in-match. In a different interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, Kwon stated that the top was he wanted to be a top 10 player and how he doesn't back down until a match is over.
2. Mikael Ymer
Mikael Ymer started the season at World No. 255, but is finishing at World No. 74. It has been quite a rise for Ymer, who played in six Challenger finals and won four Challengers this season. He won his Challengers on a variety of surface, with one victory on hard, one on clay, and two on indoor hard. Ymer is such a tough player to face. He has an extremely heavy forehand and does not miss much more from the baseline. He is also a very fast mover around the court.
Ymer won his first main draw match at a major, taking out Blaz Rola in the first round before losing to Alexander Zverev in the second round. Ymer has set himself up to play a lot of ATP events next year and I am excited to see how he fares!
3. Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer, who played his college tennis at Tulane University, started the year at World No. 161, but rose as high as No. 81, before ending the year at World No. 94. When Koepfer got to No. 86 in September, it was the first time in his careeer that he had made it into the top 100. Koepfer won the first Challenger of the year in June, beating Dennis Novak in a tight three-setter in the final to raise the trophy.
Koepfer won his first main draw major mach this year at Wimbledon, then played fantastic tennis at the US Open. In New York, Koepfer reached the fourth round, which included victories over Reilly Opelka and Nicoloz Basilashvili. Koepfer even took the first set off of Daniil Medvedev and came within a fourth set tiebreak of a fifth set.
2020 Major Predictions
Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
The surface at the Australian Open suits Djokovic's game perfectly.
French Open: Rafael Nadal
Thiem is getting better and better, but Rafael Nadal is the clear favorite until Thiem can prove he can beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic
Would love to pick Federer here, but he does seem to be slowing down a half-step to me. I don't trust him to win seven straight best-of-five matches in 2020. Djokovic is clearly the second best grass court player in this era, so he gets the nod at Wimbledon.
US Open: Dominic Thiem
Going to take a shot-in-the-dark with this one. Thiem has improved so much on hard courts and has the stamina to last at majors. While it would certainly be surprising that Thiem would win a hard court major first, the only reason he would win the US Open before the French Open is Rafael Nadal's prowess on clay. Thiem is in better shape than most players on tour, his groundstrokes are nasty. I think he's the first non-Big 3 member in a while to get a slam.
Enjoy the offseason, everybody!
Thiem's prowess on hard courts was showcased throughout the season. Thiem beat Federer to win Indian Wells for his first Masters 1000 title. Thiem picked up two ATP 500 titles on hard/indoor hard in Beijing (def. Tsitsipas) and Vienna (def. Schwartzman). At the ATP Finals, he beat Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the group stages, then Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. While he ultimately fell to Tsitsipas in the final, he certainly had a good showing at this tournament. It's not inconceivable anymore that Thiem could win the Australian Open or US Open.
That's not to say that Thiem turned into a bum on clay courts, far from it. In fact, he was debatably the second best on the surface this year, behind, of course, Nadal. For starters, Thiem made the final of the biggest clay court event of the season: Roland Garros. This included an epic five-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. In regular tour events, Thiem won a 500 event in Barcelona and a 250 in Kitzbuhel. If Nadal gets injured or starts to dip in form, Thiem will be right there as a favorite to win the French Open.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets His Moment in the Sun
Roberto Bautista Agut had the year of his life and I think that it's important to recognize his year. For starters, Bautista Agut had his best results in majors in his career. At the Australian Open, Bautista Agut made the quarterfinals before losing to Tsitsipas. Bautista Agut beat Murray, Khachanov, and Cilic during that quarterfinal run.
Bautista Agut also made the semifinals of Wimbledon. Bautista Agut made the semifinals having lost only one set along the way, including a straight sets win over Khachanov. Bautista Agut was even able to get a set off of Novak Djokovic in his semifinal match, but ultimately lost in four sets.
Speaking of Novak Djokovic, Bautista Agut's title in Doha to start the year included a win over Djokovic in the semifinals. In the quarterfinals, Bautista Agut beat Stan Wawrinka. Bautista Agut also made the quarterfinals of three Masters 1000 events, and moved up in the rankings from World No. 24 at the start of the year to World No. 9 currently. Bautista Agut's World No. 10 ranking in August was the first time he had ever been in the top 10 before.
5. Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah Dominate Doubles
I want to recognize some of the amazing play in doubles this year, specifically by the Colombian duo of Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah.
Cabal and Farah started the year ranked as co-World No. 5s in the doubles rankings, yet they had neither had ever won a (non-mixed) doubles major. At the 2018 Australia Open, they came close, but in the final, they lost in straight sets to Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic. However, in this year's Australian Open, Cabal and Farah lost in the first round to Jack Sock and Jackson Winthrow. At the French Open, they lost in the semifinals to Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin.
Finally, at Wimbledon, the Colombian team had their breakthrough at a major. In an epic five-set Wimbledon final, Cabal and Farah beat Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in five sets for their first major title. Winning Wimbledon also meant that they would be co-World No. 1s for the first time. At the US Open, in an incredible atmosphere where many were in support of Cabal and Farah, the Colombian duo beat Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos in the final in straight sets to take the title.
Cabal and Farah would end the season as co-World No. 1s. In addition to winning their first two doubles majors, they also won Rome (Masters 1000), Barcelona (ATP 500), and Eastbourne (ATP 250). There's a certain harmony when these two are on the court together, where each player knows not only exactly where to position himself, but also have a complete understanding of where his partner will be on the court, as well. It's this ability to work together that allows the duo to be so successful.
Shoutouts to 3 Relatively Unheralded Players With Great Seasons
1. Soonwoo Kwon
Soonwoo Kwon had the season of his life in 2019. Kwon started the year ranked World No. 235, but got as high as World No. 81 before finishing the season at World No. 88. Kwon won two Challenger titles this year in Yokohama and Seoul. Kwon qualified for Wimbledon and the US Open, only dropping one set in Wimbledon qualifying. He also made the quarterfinals of his first ATP Tour event in Los Cabos before falling in three sets to Guido Pella.
Kwon has a great attitude both regarding his future ambitions and his play in-match. In a different interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, Kwon stated that the top was he wanted to be a top 10 player and how he doesn't back down until a match is over.
2. Mikael Ymer
Mikael Ymer started the season at World No. 255, but is finishing at World No. 74. It has been quite a rise for Ymer, who played in six Challenger finals and won four Challengers this season. He won his Challengers on a variety of surface, with one victory on hard, one on clay, and two on indoor hard. Ymer is such a tough player to face. He has an extremely heavy forehand and does not miss much more from the baseline. He is also a very fast mover around the court.
Ymer won his first main draw match at a major, taking out Blaz Rola in the first round before losing to Alexander Zverev in the second round. Ymer has set himself up to play a lot of ATP events next year and I am excited to see how he fares!
3. Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer, who played his college tennis at Tulane University, started the year at World No. 161, but rose as high as No. 81, before ending the year at World No. 94. When Koepfer got to No. 86 in September, it was the first time in his careeer that he had made it into the top 100. Koepfer won the first Challenger of the year in June, beating Dennis Novak in a tight three-setter in the final to raise the trophy.
Koepfer won his first main draw major mach this year at Wimbledon, then played fantastic tennis at the US Open. In New York, Koepfer reached the fourth round, which included victories over Reilly Opelka and Nicoloz Basilashvili. Koepfer even took the first set off of Daniil Medvedev and came within a fourth set tiebreak of a fifth set.
2020 Major Predictions
Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
The surface at the Australian Open suits Djokovic's game perfectly.
French Open: Rafael Nadal
Thiem is getting better and better, but Rafael Nadal is the clear favorite until Thiem can prove he can beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic
Would love to pick Federer here, but he does seem to be slowing down a half-step to me. I don't trust him to win seven straight best-of-five matches in 2020. Djokovic is clearly the second best grass court player in this era, so he gets the nod at Wimbledon.
US Open: Dominic Thiem
Going to take a shot-in-the-dark with this one. Thiem has improved so much on hard courts and has the stamina to last at majors. While it would certainly be surprising that Thiem would win a hard court major first, the only reason he would win the US Open before the French Open is Rafael Nadal's prowess on clay. Thiem is in better shape than most players on tour, his groundstrokes are nasty. I think he's the first non-Big 3 member in a while to get a slam.
Enjoy the offseason, everybody!
