It's certainly been a journey to get to this point. After all of the drama that happened because of the strict quarantine measures due to the coronavirus pandemic, it's certainly a relief to be back to the tennis and not hearing complaints, and then people complaining about the complaints and others defending the complaints. It's just tiresome.
But, thankfully, the Australian Open is almost here! The draw is out and I will be giving my thoughts on what to expect and some predictions for the men's draw.
Like usual, I will probably be looking ridiculous a few days into the event, but let's try this again!
Note: the full men's draw can be found here
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev Face Off in Another Hard Court Slam QF
Of course, the matchup with No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev is not a favorable one for Rublev, but in terms of who has to face before a potential meeting with his countryman in the quarterfinals, I like Rublev's chances. His first round match against Yannik Hanfmann shouldn't present many problems. Hanfmann likes clay courts and doesn't present the power nor the rally tolerance on a hard court to trouble Rublev.
In the second round, I have Rublev taking on Thiago Monteiro (Andrej Martin is the other potential opponent). Whether it be Monteiro or Martin, like Hanfmann, they both are much better on clay than hard courts. Monteiro's backhand can really be exploited on hard and Martin doesn't have the power from the baseline to contend with Rublev. If Rublev were to play Martin, then Martin would be doing a lot of retrieving/forced errors.
In the third round, I have Rublev taking on Lorenzo Sonego. Sonego has a nice serve and a heavy forehand, but I don't think he has as dynamic of a game nor has the rally tolerance to hang with Rublev from the baseline. Sam Querrey and Feliciano Lopez are also potential opponents, but neither have been great so far in Australia this season and leak errors from the baseline.
A round of 16 matchup with No. 12 seed Roberto Bautista Agut would present a huge challenge for the Russian. Their head to head is tied 2-2, but Rublev has won the past two matches. The difference between Rublev now and when he was losing to the Spaniard years ago is immense. Rublev hits the ball harder, with more accuracy, and has helped shore up his second serve. I would favor Rublev against Bautista Agut in that match. I would also favor Rublev if he is playing someone like Casper Ruud or Jan-Lennard Struff.
For Medvedev, his pathway is pretty straightforward. A net-minded Vasek Pospisil in the first round won't be easy. But, Medvedev's passing shots are superb and he will be able to grind Pospisil down from the baseline. Pospisil's fitness is also often an issue, and this could be a factor after so much time off and in the Aussie heat.
In the second round, Medvedev would either play Roberto Carballes Baena or Attila Balazs. Both players prefer clay, don't have a ton of power, and Balazs specifically, retired from his warmup match at the Great Ocean Road Open against Carlos Alcaraz very early on. Medvedev should be able to control the baseline and easily get past either Carballes Baena or Balazs.
The third round should present no issues for Medvedev either. With No. 28 seed Filip Krajinovic withdrawing from his ATP Cup match, his health is certainly in question. Robin Haase has played solid baseline tennis, but not at the level of Medvedev. Pablo Andujar didn't play great against Pablo Cuevas in his first round match at the Great Ocean Road Open and Halys is so inconsistent. Whoever is in that third round match should be smooth-sailing for the Russian.
A fourth round match with No. 22 seed Borna Coric or No. 13 seed David Goffin would await Medvedev. As I will explain later, I don't really see Goffin as much of a threat. In terms of Coric, I know that the Croatian leads the head to head and that they've split matchups at majors, but at this stage, Medvedev should be too good over the course of best-of-five. I don't see how the Croatian can consistently break down Medvedev and hit through him from the baseline at this point. And Coric doesn't have a huge serve to rely on either. A matchup between the two, I believe, would look more like the most recent 6-3, 6-1 win for Medvedev in St. Petersburg 2019.
So, I fully expect a showdown between Rublev and Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Whether or not Rublev can get over the hump against his compatriot remains to be seen (but I will give my prediction later).
2. Matteo Berrettini Makes Another Grand Slam Semifinal
Matteo Berrettini last made the semifinals of a Major at the 2019 US Open, where he lost to Rafael Nadal in straight sets. Given the form we've seen from the Italian at the ATP Cup, this is another great shot for him to make another Grand Slam semi.
Berrettini has been absolutely crushing the ball during the ATP Cup and is also defending at an elite level. He's beaten Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils both in straight sets. In the match against Monfils, the Frenchman actually was counterpunching really well, but Berrettini always had an answer.
The No. 9 seed Berrettini starts with big-serving Kevin Anderson in the first round. Anderson is a dangerous opponent, but I think that Berrettini's baseline game is much better than Anderson's at this point in the South African's career and Berrettini should be able to get enough serves back to come through that match.
In the second round, Berrettini would play one of two qualifiers, Tomas Machac or Mario Vilella Martinez. The rising star Machac would probably be the bigger test on a hard court, but Berrettini's huge serve, depth of shot, and change-of-pace with the backhand slice will be huge for him in this potential matchup.
A potential third round match against No. 19 seed Karen Khachanov would await. Khachanov is certainly playing well this week during the Great Ocean Road Open, but the Russian played over four hours of tennis yesterday and has another match to play today, so he might be a bit overcooked at this point, if he can even reach the third round.
In addition, Berrettini leads the head to head for a reason. His return of serve is better than Khachanov's and he plays with variety and touch at a bit of a higher level compared to Khachanov.
A fourth round matchup with No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas would potentially be next in the round of 16. Given the strength of both the Tsitsipas and Berrettini first serves, this would be a very close match. I just trust the Berrettini backhand to hold up a little better than the Tsitsipas backhand and I think that Berrettini's forehand looks as good as I've ever seen it and he might have the edge there too if this match were to come to fruition.
A quarterfinal showdown against No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal would possibly be the last person standing between Berrettini and the semifinals. Nadal had beaten Berrettini in the semifinals of the US Open in 2019, but this is a completely different circumstance. Nadal is coming into this event undercooked, having not played in the Spain ATP Cup tie against Australia nor Greece.
Especially off of clay at this point in Nadal's career, I'm not convinced he can snap into form on a hard and beat a top 10 totally in-form player like Berrettini.
So, while the road is certainly tough, my expectations for Matteo Berrettini during the Australian Open are high.
3. David Goffin Gets Upset in the First Round
I like No. 13 seed David Goffin a lot and enjoy his game when it's on but I have Goffin losing in the first round to Alexei Popyrin.
Popyrin looked good during the Murray River Open warmup tournament. He beat a rising Borna Gojo in a third set tiebreak in the first round. Then, Popyrin had another impressive victory, this time in straight sets, over Tommy Paul in the second round. Popyrin battled hard against Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16, losing in a three-set match, but showing that he wouldn't be a push over at the Australian Open.
On the other hand, Goffin was quite poor during his match against Carlos Alcaraz during the Great Ocean Road Open warmup. He lot 6-3, 6-3 and only won 56% of the points on his first serve and 25% of his second serve points. Of course, Alcaraz is a rising star in the sport, but I expected more from Goffin in that match.
Goffin has really struggled since the clay court swing last season. Starting with his loss against Shapovalov at the US Open (the match immediately preceding Rome for the Belgian), he lost five matches in a row to finish 2020. He only won one set in those five matches. In not one of those matches was his first serve points won over 70% or his second serve points won over 50%.
Goffin did win a few matches in Antalya to start the season, but given how he played against Alcaraz, it's hard to judge whether his form is back and the Alcaraz match was the outlier, or if he just happened to get a small hot streak in Antalya and the matches there were the outliers.
I have a feeling, with the Aussie crowd behind him, Alexei Popyrin pulls the upset.
4. Daniil Medvedev Wins His First Major
Daniil Medvedev knows what it feels like to be close to a Major title. At the 2019 US Open, he was one set away from his first Grand Slam before falling to Rafael Nadal in a fifth set. He threatened to win the US Open last season, but hasn't broken through to win a Major. Yet.
Medvedev is coming into the Australian Open in amazing form. As of now (February 5th), he's won his last 12 matches in a row and beaten top players such as Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Diego Schwartzman twice, and Alexander Zverev twice (with a chance to make it three times tonight).
I believe this is Medvedev's time in the sun. I've broken down his draw up to the quarterfinals in a prior section, so no need to repeat that. Against Rublev in the quarterfinals, he's found success in the past because Rublev doesn't quite have the weapons to hit through Medvedev, so Medvedev is able to neutralize the Rublev baseline game. Medvedev is also a top returner in the World and can take advantage of Rublev's second serve (which is improved, but not quite enough to completely neutralize the Medvedev return).
Rublev actually did pretty well at the US Open last season on his second serve, winning 61% of second serve points. This is a huge improvement over their previous two meetings, where Rublev won 30% of his second serve points in St. Petersburg and 29% in Cincinnati. Still, it wasn't enough to come close to beating Medvedev.
To be honest, it was pretty incredible that Rublev won 80% of his first serve points in that US Open match and still couldn't muster up a set. Goes to show the level that Medvedev was playing at on his serve.
Anyways, Medvedev would potentially play Matteo Berrettini or Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. I see Medvedev beating either opponent. I've already talked about how Nadal is undercooked for the Australian Open. Medvedev just beat Nadal at the ATP Finals, and at this stage in both of their careers (and this is no knock on Nadal at all), I think that Medvedev is a better hard courter at this stage in both of their careers.
Against Berrettini, I would expect the Italian to keep it close with his big serve and heavy forehand, but ultimately, I trust Medvedev's rally tolerance over Berrettini's. I think that Medvedev's ability to get huge serves back into uncomfortable positions for the server would also be huge in this match.
In the final, I have Medvedev playing No. 1 seed, and top player in the World, Novak Djokovic. Medvedev at the ATP Finals comfortably beat Djokovic. Of course, playing Djokovic in a best-of-five scenario is a totally different ball game.
This would be a battle for the ages, with both players in-form and on their best surface. Both players have great placement on the serve, have incredible speed and anticipation around the court, and are remarkable in their abilities to place the ball exactly where they want to. It's really hard to pick a winner.
But, Medvedev is the younger player and I think has a little more patience from the baseline at this stage in his career.
So, I am going to take a chance, and it's always taking a chance going against Djokovic at the Australian Open, and picking Daniil Medvedev to win the event.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner
I was actually disappointed when I saw that these two had to play each in the first round because, for as good as the match will be, it means both guys can't go far in this tournament. Both Shapovalov and Sinner are such talented young players (although Shapovalov at 21 isn't so young anymore by tennis standards, as ridiculous as that is to say).
I don't take anything negative away from Shapovalov's play at the ATP Cup. Yes, he's lost six matches in a row overall and both matches at the ATP Cup, but he has played well in Melbourne so far, despite the losses.
Shapovalov lost a tough straight sets match to Novak Djokovic in his first ATP Cup match. Shapovalov won 80% of his first serve points, which is incredibly high given he was playing, arguably, the best returner in tennis history. However, Shapovalov's return of serve struggled, only winning 11/63 return points overall in the match.
Shapovalov then lost in a third set tiebreak to Alexander Zverev in his second ATP Cup match. It was another good performance against a top player in which the Canadian fell a little short, but it wasn't anything to be overly concerned about. This wasn't like when Shapovalov lost to Radu Albot in Sofia to end his 2020 season.
It is a little worrisome that Shapovalov had medical timeouts in both his match against Djokovic and Zverev, but with the way he played in both matches, again, it's not a big worry. for me.
Jannik Sinner finished 2020 strong with his maiden ATP Tour title in Sofia over Vasek Pospisil and has started 2021 strong, currently residing in the semifinals of the Great Ocean Road Open.
Sinner's backhand is world-class and getting better-and-better seemingly with match. He has a big serve that gains control of points and then he can finish opponents off with his backhand.
Contrary to Shapovalov, Sinner has won eight ATP Tour matches in a row (currently) and beaten a couple good baseliners this week in Aljaz Bedene and Miomir Kecmanovic.
The popcorn aspect of this matchup is Shapovalov's huge lefty forehand versus Sinner's incredible backhand in the cross-court exchanges. However, they should split those type of points and it will come down to other factors who wins the match.
I trust Shapovalov's backhand a little more than Sinner's forehand and think that Shapovalov has the slightly better serve and net game.
The Canadian has more big-match experience and best-of-five experience and I really do think that makes a difference here.
So, contrary to recent form, I will say Shapovalov wins in five sets.
Honorable Mention
Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Carlos Alcaraz
I wanted to quickly mention this match because it's flying under the radar a bit, but should be a top-notch match. Botic Van de Zandschulp is playing the tennis of his career, qualifying for the Australian Open and making the quarterfinals of the Great Ocean Road Open. He plays very aggressive tennis and is going to be a tough player to break down.
Carlos Alcaraz is a 17 year-old phenom. I didn't think he would have this much success on hard courts at this level so fast, but he has. Alcaraz a big forehand and a good serve and also qualified for the Australian Open. At the Great Ocean Road Open, he had a big win over David Goffin in the second round before falling to Thiago Monteiro in the round of 16.
These two have never played before. The only reason I'm going with Van de Zandschulp in five sets is because I just trust his hard court game a little bit more than Alcaraz's at this point in the Spaniard's career.
"Walking Byes"
1. Laslo Djere
Even if Laslo Djere was not playing Rafael Nadal in the first round, he would still be a walking bye. Djere has lost seven of his last eight matchups on hard courts (excluding exhibitions) and didn't put up too much resistance against Kamil Majchrzak in the first round of the Great Ocean Road Open.
Djere hasn't won consecutive matches on a hard court (again, excluding exhibition matches) since Basel qualifying in 2018!
That's the definition of a walking bye to me.
2. Yen-Hsun Lu
Yen-Hsun Lu is in the main draw via a Protected Ranking. Lu has only played five events since 2017 and lost in the first round of the Great Ocean Road Open to Aleksander Vukic.
Surprisingly, Lu was able to grab nine games in that match, but that doesn't dissuade me in putting him on this list. With such little recent match experience and in the best-of-five format, I see no way Lu makes his match against Reilly Opelka competitive. If Vukic was winning 75% of his first serve points against Lu (not that Vukic is a weak server), imagine what the Opelka first serve will do. There is very little chance that Lu will be able to get into Opelka service games.
Lu is a shell of his former self, who got as high as World No. 33, and I believe that he is a walking bye here.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Zverev in 4
Thiem over Shapovalov in 4
Medvedev over Rublev in 3
Berrettini over Nadal in 5
Semifinals
Djokovic over Thiem in 4
Medvedev over Berrettini in 4
Final
Medvedev over Djokovic in 5
