The official drawsheet is here.
First Quarter
The first quarter of the draw features of showdown between two former French Open quarterfinalists: No. 1 seed Petra Martic (2019) and Alison Van Uytvanck (2015). There are a couple other dangerous players in this section of the draw, with No. 5 seed Elise Mertens and Daria Kasatkina also nearby.
I think that Martic should get past Van Uytvanck in the first round. Martic's game fits the slower clay courts much better than Van Uytvanck's. Van Uytvanck likes faster, lower-bouncing courts where she can be aggressive and use her variety. In the next round, look for Martic to take on a qualifier or lucky loser (who I think beats Flipkens). Martic should have the game to beat whatever qualifier or lucky loser she faces.
In the other section of this quarter, Elise Mertens will take on a qualifier or lucky loser in the first round. This match could be closer than many might think, as Mertens is coming in cold after a pandemic, while the qualifier will have played a couple matches in Palermo already. Look for Mertens to squeeze by and advance. Expect Mertens to take on Kasatkina in the next round, who will have to squeeze by Jasmine Paolini in her first round match.
Mertens has a bit too much controlled aggression compared to Kasatkina, who might find that the consistency that is a pillar of her game is not fully back following the pandemic.
That leaves us a quarterfinal showdown between Martic and Mertens. Mertens leads the head to head 2-0 (although they've never played on clay) and I think that her baseline game is a little more impressive than Martic's. Because of that, I have Mertens as the first semifinalist.
Second Quarter
The second quarter of the draw features No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit, who is coming off a win over Jelena Ostapenko in an exhibition event. Kontaveit takes on Patricia Maria Tig in the first round, a solid clay courter herself. However, Kontaveit has the power to make Tig very uncomfortable.
Look for Kontaveit to start the restart strong and go to the second round where she I expect her to take on Laura Siegemund. I give Siegemund the edge over Begu because Siegemund has played significantly more tennis than Begu during the hiatus and there should be less rust for her. While Siegemund can make opponents uncomfortable with her all-court game, Kontaveit should be able to handle it.
The other section of the quarter has the spotlight on Donna Vekic. Vekic's first match is against Arantxa Rus, who plays a tricky lefty game. Vekic doesn't have a ton of margin on her groundstrokes, so I wonder how she will hold up after not having played a ton of matches in the past few months. But, I trust her to get by Rus, as she is the much better player.
Vekic should take on Polona Hercog in the next round. Hercog, a wiley veteran, has a tough-to-handle backhand slice and solid rally tolerance. Hercog will upset Vekic and advance to the quarterfinals.
In the quarters, Kontaveit will take on Hercog. Kontaveit has impressed me all season, she can play well on clay, and I see no reason why she won't be able to easily take care of Hercog. Hercog doesn't have the game to really hurt Kontaveit and the Estonian should reach the semifinals.
Third Quarter
This quarter of the draw includes No. 3 seed Maria Sakkari. She will take on Kristyna Pliskova in her first round match. Pliskova's game is largely based on her huge lefty serve, but she doesn't have much rally tolerance, so she's in trouble when her serve isn't on-point. Sakkari also has a high-quality return game and doesn't make too many unforced errors. This can really make Pliskova uncomfortable.
I then have Sakkari facing Sorana Cirstea. Cirstea faces former French Open finalist Sara Errani in the first round. However, this version of Errani is a shell of her former self. Cirstea both isn't steady enough from the baseline and doesn't have enough power to hurt Sakkari very much. Expect Sakkari to advance to the final eight.
But, who will she play? No. 8 seed Ekaterina Alexandrova had a wonderful 2019 season. She was often able to overpower her opponents. However, she has a tough first round opponent in Kristina Mladenovic. Given that Mladenovic retired from her previous exhibition match, her health is in question. The Russian also has a bigger game than Mladenovic and will be able to control exchanges from the baseline. Alexandrova wins and advances to the second round.
I then think that Alexandrova will take on Fiona Ferro. Ferro has also played her exhibitions on hard court, but it's hard to deny the results. Ferro has won ten (exhibition) matches in a row and only dropped four sets. All of that winning breeds confidence and Ferro, who is an adept clay courter as well, should be able to handle Alexandrova in their second round encounter.
That leaves Ferro to take on Sakkari in the quarterfinals. Again, all of the competing and winning from Ferro recently will pay off. Sakkari hasn't played any competitive tennis at all since the pandemic began, which is in sharp contrast to Ferro. I expect Ferro to feel more comfortable out there than Sakkari, who would still only be in her third match back. Ferro will be the third semifinalist.
Fourth Quarter
This quarter is headed by Marketa Vondrousova, the No. 2 seed. Vondrousova should easily take care of whatever qualifier or lucky loser she plays. She's played fairly well during her exhibition matches on clay, including an impressive win over Petra Kvitova. In the second round, Vondrousova should take on Rebecca Peterson. Peterson has a dangerous first round matchup against Camila Giorgi. However, I can't see Giorgi's extremely high-risk game to fair well in her first match back, especially on clay.
Peterson is a solid player with good controlled aggression. However, Vondrousova has a little more power and her lefty game is especially tough to handle on clay. Vondrousova should move on to the quarterfinals.
The other seeded player in this section is No. 7 seed Dayana Yastremska. Yastremska likes to hit the ball big and control the baseline. However, like Giorgi, will she be able to play her best so soon after the hiatus on a surface that doesn't suit her game? Sara Sorribes Tormo is a perfect first round opponent for her, as Sorribes Tormo has no weapons to hurt Yastremska. Yastremska wins.
The Ukranian will then most likely face Tamara Zidansek in the second round. This is where I see an upset occurring. I am very high on Zidansek's game on clay. She can really control the court with her heavy forehand and make opponents very uncomfortable. She should beat Yastremska to face Vondrousova in the quarterfinals.
However, Zidansek's run should stop in the quarterfinals. The matchup of the Vondrousova forehand to the Zidansek backhand is more in Vondrousova's favor compared to the Zidansek forehand versus the Vondrousova backhand. For this reason, Vondrousova should be able to get past Zidansek and take her place in the semifinals.
Semifinals
Our first semifinal matchup will be No. 5 seed Elise Mertens vs No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit. Mertens leads the head to head 2-1, although this will be their first matchup on clay. However, I think that Kontaveit is the craftier player and has a bit more power than Mertens. I see Kontaveit as a top 10 player in the near future and it gives me a little more confidence when I see that she recently beat Ostapenko, as it means her form is at a good level. Mertens is so solid and should make it close, but I see Kontaveit as our first finalist. Just my gut feeling.
The second semifinal is going to be unseeded Fiona Ferro against No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Again, Vondrousova's lefty forehand on clay is a huge factor in this match. That shot is a major reason why Vondrousova reached the French Open final last year. Ferro will be full of confidence, but ultimately, Vondrousova's game just has a little higher of a ceiling on clay and she should be able to command more baseline exchanges. Vondrousova will be our second finalist.
Final
Our final is No. 4 seed Anett Kontaveit vs No. 2 seed Marketa Vondrousova. Vondrousova leads the head to head 1-0, but that matchup was on a hard court. This is a tough match to call between two up-and-coming stars. However, it comes down to who's game do I trust not to break down. And on a clay court, Vondrousova's game is more steady than Kontaveit's.
Vondrousova should be able to set herself up well with her serve and I think that she will get the upper-hand in baseline exchanges.
Marketa Vondrousova will be the WTA Palermo champion!
No comments:
Post a Comment