COVID-19 has created massive problems throughout the world, including the cancellation of tennis through July 13th (currently). The Mutua Madrid Open decided that, instead of cancelling the tournament altogether, they would hold a virtual tournament instead of the regular in-person clay court event.
While not ideal by any means, with the surge in popularity of esports, this seemed like a good way for tennis to enter into the gaming sphere. The tournament decided that Tennis World Tour would be the video game of choice and playstation to be the game console used.
With 150,000 euros at stake (with at least some of that total expected to go to a donation) and 50,000 additional euros set aside exclusively for donations, the stakes were high for the 32 players participating.
The tournament was still gender-separated with 16 ATP players and 16 WTA players parsed into groups of 4 for dueling round robin tournaments. In the round robin stage, the players played to 3, with at tiebreak at 3-3. There was also a charity tournament occurring simultaneously.
For the main tournaments, after the round robin, there would be a traditional quarterfinal, knock out-style setup. In the knock out stages of the tournament, a full set of virtual tennis was played to determine a winner. Kiki Bertens and Andy Murray ended up winning the WTA and ATP virtual titles, respectively.
So, how successful was the tournament? Could we see a wave of similar tournaments, even when the regular tours return? Let's dive in.
Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro Review
The tournament started off on the wrong foot with the withdrawal of Gael Monfils (whose spot was taken by Benoit Paire) due to an issue with the rights to stream his virtual matches.
Tennis journalist Matthew Willis made the point that the virtual tournament was exclusive to Facebook and Monfils was affiliated with Twitch, another streaming platform. The streaming on Facebook part is weird to Willis, who has showcased how much more popular Twitch is for streaming.
There were more withdrawals during the tournament too. The game itself was a laggy disaster (more on that later), and during the round robin stage of the men's tournament, Dominic Thiem and Karen Khachanov withdrew because of technical issues, giving opponents 3-0 wins.
Even in the charity tournament taking place alongside the main tournament, technical issues for Rafael Nadal and Donna Vekic forced the cancellation of that match.
If Tennis World Tour is the best video game that tennis has, then the future of video game play in the sport is in huge trouble. Willis showcased the glitchy, terrible graphics that almost certainly turned viewers off from the game.
Then, in the men's semifinals, when Andy Murray took on Diego Schwartzman, it was as tennis journalist Stuart Fraser reported Murray saying, "...a disaster." Technical difficulties marred the match and the players ultimately decided that Murray should advance to the final.
It was almost comical how poorly the tournament was working out. In the semifinals of a virtual tournament, the players can barely even play due to technical issues. If I'm being frank, it was a total embarrassment for the tournament and reflected poorly on the sport's ability to put together a solid virtual tournament.
Personally, when I was watching the quarterfinal matchup between Bianca Andreescu and Sorana Cirstea, a match which Cirstea eventually won in a tiebreak, there was at least one occasion that I can remember where a player served a let, but was inexplicably given the point. With as seriously as the virtual tournament was taking itself, even such a seemingly minor problem during play de-legitimizes the competition.
That's not to say that the organizers weren't trying their hardest. It was clear that Madrid tournament director Feliciano Lopez and the rest of the team at Madrid were trying their best to put on the best event possible.
The problem for the Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro was that the the game itself felt deficient in someway. The graphics felt like they were from 10 or 15 years ago, as opposed to the modern day video games we are used to.
Tennis as sport might also just not be very well-suited to video games in general, at least serious video games trying to realistically replicate the action on the court. Watching the Virtual Pro, it felt like so much was missing. The cool angles and spins that players put on the ball, the trick shots, even the interaction between players and their boxes. All gone.
Instead, we got a glitchy, laggy, bland version of tennis that was a massive disappointment. The fun of NHL, FIFA, NBA2K, and Madden was replaced with this lame game.
A charity tournament featuring the Serena Williams Naomi Osaka, and Maria Sharapova (along with other tennis players and celebrities) is using Mario Tennis Aces as their game of choice. While that tournament, officially named the "Stay at Home Slam", is also using Facebook to stream, there is a key difference. The video game of choice is much better suited for a virtual tennis event meant to draw in fans.
Mario games are more about having fun than having serious, realistic competition. And perhaps that was the Virtual Pro's problem, they were so intent on having pros in the game itself that they forgot that a less serious video game like Mario Tennis Aces would actually be more fun to play and watch.
Let's be honest, no video game is going to realistically mimic the Nadal topspin forehand on clay.
However, a word of caution for the "Stay at Home Slam": the tournament is using John McEnroe along with Justine Ezarik for commentary. I believe that having official commentary was a very poor choice for the Virtual Pro. The commentary was unnecessary and took away from the players' own commentary. Yet another way the tournament was taking itself too seriously.
I don't mean for this to be a post where I just crap all over the virtual tournament. However, if we are to have video game tennis tournaments in the future, it's important to learn from past mistakes and try to provide the best viewer experience possible.
I appreciate the Mutua Madrid Open stepping up to the plate and essentially being the guinea pig for quarantine virtual content. Future tournaments can take what happened at the Virtual Pro and hopefully put together a better product.
Showing posts with label Diego Schwartzman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diego Schwartzman. Show all posts
Saturday, May 2, 2020
Friday, August 23, 2019
Men's US Open Draw Thoughts
The US Open is almost here! We have reached the final major of the 2019 season and players will have one more chance to win a grand slam before the season's end. While in previous blog posts this season, I have done draw breakdowns for the majors, I am going to stray a little from that here. I will be giving my general thoughts about the draw first, before moving on to predictions a very brief analysis.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. The Big 3 are in the semifinals of a major again
You definitely shouldn't be surprised by this, but I'm just putting it in here for completeness' sake. The Big 3, consisting of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in the best-of-five format. During both the French Open and Wimbledon, three of the four semifinalists were the members of the Big 3, and 5 of the 6 major finalists this season were members of the Big 3. It just doesn't seem fair, but it's reality.
Beating these guys during majors, where the best-of-five format takes away some of the variability in results, has been close to impossible for the vast majority of the field. Sure, a guy like Kyrgios could theoretically do it, but what are the chances he even makes it to the first Big 3 member he would face, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals? Very slim.
2. Grigor Dimitrov has a very good tournament
Dimitrov has been at the butt of jokes this year, given his horrid form, losing seven of his previous eight non-exhibition matches, with a close win over Steve Johnson in Los Cabos his only win. But, with that said, he looked much better last week in Cincinnati against Wawrinka, coming within a tiebreak of beating the three-time major champion.
Dimitrov's draw is also very favorable. Getting an out-of-form Andreas Seppi in the first round is not bad at all, and the potential seeds he would face are not the most intimidating group to play right now (Borna Coric, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori). Raonic retired from his last match in Montreal with injury, while Coric and Nishikori both did not look to be near their best form in Cincinnati. If Dimitrov can beat Seppi and gain some momentum, he could play himself in the form he needs to make a deep run.
3. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas Both Lose in the First Round
No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev has a very tough first round opponent in Radu Albot. Having won a hard court ATP title in Delray Beach and having had a solid summer hard court, Albot won't be an easy out for Zverev. Albot recently beat Marin Cilic in Cincinnati, getting a ton of balls back in play and counterpunching well. Zverev might feel the need to try to end points early and get some more juice on his serve. This might not be the best idea, given that he hit 20 double faults in his previous match in Cincinnati against Miomir Kecmanovic. Zverev has also not adjusted to the best-of-five format as well as his ranking and other accolades would suggest. He's never been past the quarterfinals of a major, and never been to the quarterfinals away from Roland Garros.
No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is at a bit of a summer standstill. He's just 3-3 since Wimbledon and has lost his last three matches. He faces one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, Andrey Rublev. Rublev made the quarterfinals of Cincinnati, beating Roger Federer along the way. In addition, Rublev went to the quarterfinals of Winston-Salem before eventually losing to Denis Shapovalov. This feels like the makings of an upset with Rublev high in confidence, and Tsitsipas lower in confidence. While following the French Open, it seemed the gulf between these players was massive, it does not feel that way anymore.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets to Another Slam Semifinal
Roberto Bautista Agut surprised many when he reached the Wimbledon semifinal, but perhaps, the only thing surprising about it was that his first major semifinal was on grass instead of hard (his best surface). Roberto Bautista Agut's game isn't based on hot shots, or blowing his opponents off the court, but instead is based on consistency, placement, and patience. Bautista Agut hits a fairly flat ball, spreads his shots around the court well, and waits for his opening to attack. Bautista Agut's speed around court is also very impressive and opponents often will press too hard in an effort to get balls past him, trying to create openings when there aren't any available.
Bautista Agut's draw is manageable. The draw in his 16th of the draw is Matteo Berrettini, who is out of form, and who might not even make it to Bautista Agut in the third round. A potential round of 16 match against Rublev, Tsitsipas, or Kyrgios wouldn't be easy, but you I expect Bautista Agut to out-grind any of the players mentioned. A matchup with Thiem or Monfils in the quarterfinals would also be tough. Thiem and Monfils, however, has not been hot-and-cold recently. Monfils did beat Bautista Agut in the Montreal quarterfinal, but I don't trust his fitness over the course of a best-of-five match.
5. Qualifier Hyeon Chung Plays Rafael Nadal Close in the Third Round
Current World No. 151 Hyeon Chung has been injured for much of the past year, but when he's playing well, he's an extremely difficult player to deal with. Chung is best known for making the semifinals of the 2018 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic along the way in straight sets. Chung has won nine Challenger titles in his career, no easy feat, including a straight sets win over Yuichi Sugita in Chengdu during his comeback earlier this month.
During qualifying, Chung destroyed his opponents, giving up no more than three games in a set and easily advancing to the main draw. It's clear that Chung is quickly elevating his game up to levels of his past. Chung's game is effective due to his footspeed, anticipation, and footwork, especially on hard courts. He has good strength, as well, often getting power on balls that he initially looks out of position to get a good hit on.
Chung's first round against Ernesto Escobedo won't be easy. Escobedo recently won a Challenger title himself and when his game is clicking, can hit opponents off of the court. However, I expect Chung to counterpunch well in that match and come through it. In the second round, Chung would play either Fernando Verdasco or Tobias Kamke. Verdasco retired from his most recent match in Cincinnati against Benoit Paire and is not in the best form coming into this tournament. Kamke is also a qualifier and doesn't have the weapons to beat Chung.
Then, in the third round, there would most likely be a showdown between Hyeon Chung and Rafael Nadal. While Nadal certainly looked impressive in winning Toronto, he will find it difficult to hit through Chung's defenses, just as Djokovic struggled at the Australian Open a couple years ago. Chung will come into the match with both the confidence and big-match major experience that will cause him to be less intimidated by Nadal. Nadal's extreme-topspin forehand to the Chung backhand won't be as effective as Nadal would like, as Chung is able to move to his backhand and strike it very cleanly.
With that said, it probably won't be enough to beat an in-form Nadal. But, I expect Chung to keep the match close, winning at least one set and keeping two of the other sets close. However, don't be shocked if this is a five-setter.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Denis Shapovalov
Yes, it seems kind of cheesy for me to pick this All-Canadian matchup featuring the two young stars that we saw in this exact stage last season, but it really is a compelling match. Shapovalov won last year's match in a retirement, with Shapovalov up 4-1 in the third set. The match is well-known for their emotional embrace following the match. No. 18 seed Auger-Aliassime got his revenge this year, beating Shapovalov in straight sets in Madrid.
Shapovalov has really struggled since making the Miami semifinals, having failed to win two matches in a row since Miami. However, Shapovalov recently added Mikhail Youzhny to his team in a coaching trial, and has looked much better in Winston-Salem, winning three matches in a row in straight sets to make the semifinals. While he lost to Hubert Hurkacz, this was a very good week for Shapovalov. Auger-Aliassime played very well for a long period of time this season, making three ATP Tour final. However, he has cooled down a bit since losing in the third round of Wimbledon, going 3-3 during the summer hard court season.
Tough to choose a winner in this one. You could make a convincing case for either player. I think Shapovalov has gotten himself in better form than Auger-Aliassime recently, and because of this, I am picking Shapovalov to win this one.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Medvedev in 4
Federer over Dimitrov in 3
Bautista Agut over Monfils in 5
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Semifinals
Djokovic over Federer in 5
Nadal over Bautista Agut in 4
Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
I have basically given my rational for the four semifinalists in my blurbs above. The Big 3 are just so much better than the rest of the field and Bautista Agut is in the form of his life and I trust him to win more than I trust the rest of the field, sans the Big 3. Medvedev gets major props for winning Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in the process), along with making the finals of Washington DC and Montreal. However, I don't think he will be able to redline over the course of best-off-five like he did against Djokovic in Cincinnati with the best-of-three format, and we saw in Australia that Medvedev will not be able to wear Djokovic down from the baseline in the best-of-five format.
In terms of the semifinals, I think that the loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon holds a lot of scar tissue for Federer and that Federer hasn't completely recovered, mentally, from that match. In another tight, huge match at a major against Djokovic, I just trust Djokovic more to come through in the big moments. Djokovic is in Federer's head, at this point. While Bautista Agut can out-grind many of his opponents, Rafael Nadal is not one of them. Nadal is much more of a dynamic shot-maker compared to Bautista-Agut, and shoudl be able to hit with as enough angles and variety to throw off Bautista-Agut. I look for Nadal to win that match without too much worry.
I can't pick Nadal to beat Djokovic after the final in Australia. Djokovic absolutely dominated that match and has won his last six straight sets in major finals on hard courts, winning both last year's Australian Open and the 2018 US Open (against Juan Martin del Potro) in straight sets. Yes, I have Djokovic playing 5 sets the match before against Federer, but a day' in-between matches should be enough, and I like Djokovic to win his third major of the year, and 17th major overall.
Novak Djokovic will be your 2019 US Open champion!
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. The Big 3 are in the semifinals of a major again
You definitely shouldn't be surprised by this, but I'm just putting it in here for completeness' sake. The Big 3, consisting of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in the best-of-five format. During both the French Open and Wimbledon, three of the four semifinalists were the members of the Big 3, and 5 of the 6 major finalists this season were members of the Big 3. It just doesn't seem fair, but it's reality.
Beating these guys during majors, where the best-of-five format takes away some of the variability in results, has been close to impossible for the vast majority of the field. Sure, a guy like Kyrgios could theoretically do it, but what are the chances he even makes it to the first Big 3 member he would face, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals? Very slim.
2. Grigor Dimitrov has a very good tournament
Dimitrov has been at the butt of jokes this year, given his horrid form, losing seven of his previous eight non-exhibition matches, with a close win over Steve Johnson in Los Cabos his only win. But, with that said, he looked much better last week in Cincinnati against Wawrinka, coming within a tiebreak of beating the three-time major champion.
Dimitrov's draw is also very favorable. Getting an out-of-form Andreas Seppi in the first round is not bad at all, and the potential seeds he would face are not the most intimidating group to play right now (Borna Coric, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori). Raonic retired from his last match in Montreal with injury, while Coric and Nishikori both did not look to be near their best form in Cincinnati. If Dimitrov can beat Seppi and gain some momentum, he could play himself in the form he needs to make a deep run.
3. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas Both Lose in the First Round
No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev has a very tough first round opponent in Radu Albot. Having won a hard court ATP title in Delray Beach and having had a solid summer hard court, Albot won't be an easy out for Zverev. Albot recently beat Marin Cilic in Cincinnati, getting a ton of balls back in play and counterpunching well. Zverev might feel the need to try to end points early and get some more juice on his serve. This might not be the best idea, given that he hit 20 double faults in his previous match in Cincinnati against Miomir Kecmanovic. Zverev has also not adjusted to the best-of-five format as well as his ranking and other accolades would suggest. He's never been past the quarterfinals of a major, and never been to the quarterfinals away from Roland Garros.
No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is at a bit of a summer standstill. He's just 3-3 since Wimbledon and has lost his last three matches. He faces one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, Andrey Rublev. Rublev made the quarterfinals of Cincinnati, beating Roger Federer along the way. In addition, Rublev went to the quarterfinals of Winston-Salem before eventually losing to Denis Shapovalov. This feels like the makings of an upset with Rublev high in confidence, and Tsitsipas lower in confidence. While following the French Open, it seemed the gulf between these players was massive, it does not feel that way anymore.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets to Another Slam Semifinal
Roberto Bautista Agut surprised many when he reached the Wimbledon semifinal, but perhaps, the only thing surprising about it was that his first major semifinal was on grass instead of hard (his best surface). Roberto Bautista Agut's game isn't based on hot shots, or blowing his opponents off the court, but instead is based on consistency, placement, and patience. Bautista Agut hits a fairly flat ball, spreads his shots around the court well, and waits for his opening to attack. Bautista Agut's speed around court is also very impressive and opponents often will press too hard in an effort to get balls past him, trying to create openings when there aren't any available.
Bautista Agut's draw is manageable. The draw in his 16th of the draw is Matteo Berrettini, who is out of form, and who might not even make it to Bautista Agut in the third round. A potential round of 16 match against Rublev, Tsitsipas, or Kyrgios wouldn't be easy, but you I expect Bautista Agut to out-grind any of the players mentioned. A matchup with Thiem or Monfils in the quarterfinals would also be tough. Thiem and Monfils, however, has not been hot-and-cold recently. Monfils did beat Bautista Agut in the Montreal quarterfinal, but I don't trust his fitness over the course of a best-of-five match.
5. Qualifier Hyeon Chung Plays Rafael Nadal Close in the Third Round
Current World No. 151 Hyeon Chung has been injured for much of the past year, but when he's playing well, he's an extremely difficult player to deal with. Chung is best known for making the semifinals of the 2018 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic along the way in straight sets. Chung has won nine Challenger titles in his career, no easy feat, including a straight sets win over Yuichi Sugita in Chengdu during his comeback earlier this month.
During qualifying, Chung destroyed his opponents, giving up no more than three games in a set and easily advancing to the main draw. It's clear that Chung is quickly elevating his game up to levels of his past. Chung's game is effective due to his footspeed, anticipation, and footwork, especially on hard courts. He has good strength, as well, often getting power on balls that he initially looks out of position to get a good hit on.
Chung's first round against Ernesto Escobedo won't be easy. Escobedo recently won a Challenger title himself and when his game is clicking, can hit opponents off of the court. However, I expect Chung to counterpunch well in that match and come through it. In the second round, Chung would play either Fernando Verdasco or Tobias Kamke. Verdasco retired from his most recent match in Cincinnati against Benoit Paire and is not in the best form coming into this tournament. Kamke is also a qualifier and doesn't have the weapons to beat Chung.
Then, in the third round, there would most likely be a showdown between Hyeon Chung and Rafael Nadal. While Nadal certainly looked impressive in winning Toronto, he will find it difficult to hit through Chung's defenses, just as Djokovic struggled at the Australian Open a couple years ago. Chung will come into the match with both the confidence and big-match major experience that will cause him to be less intimidated by Nadal. Nadal's extreme-topspin forehand to the Chung backhand won't be as effective as Nadal would like, as Chung is able to move to his backhand and strike it very cleanly.
With that said, it probably won't be enough to beat an in-form Nadal. But, I expect Chung to keep the match close, winning at least one set and keeping two of the other sets close. However, don't be shocked if this is a five-setter.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Denis Shapovalov
Yes, it seems kind of cheesy for me to pick this All-Canadian matchup featuring the two young stars that we saw in this exact stage last season, but it really is a compelling match. Shapovalov won last year's match in a retirement, with Shapovalov up 4-1 in the third set. The match is well-known for their emotional embrace following the match. No. 18 seed Auger-Aliassime got his revenge this year, beating Shapovalov in straight sets in Madrid.
Shapovalov has really struggled since making the Miami semifinals, having failed to win two matches in a row since Miami. However, Shapovalov recently added Mikhail Youzhny to his team in a coaching trial, and has looked much better in Winston-Salem, winning three matches in a row in straight sets to make the semifinals. While he lost to Hubert Hurkacz, this was a very good week for Shapovalov. Auger-Aliassime played very well for a long period of time this season, making three ATP Tour final. However, he has cooled down a bit since losing in the third round of Wimbledon, going 3-3 during the summer hard court season.
Tough to choose a winner in this one. You could make a convincing case for either player. I think Shapovalov has gotten himself in better form than Auger-Aliassime recently, and because of this, I am picking Shapovalov to win this one.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Medvedev in 4
Federer over Dimitrov in 3
Bautista Agut over Monfils in 5
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Semifinals
Djokovic over Federer in 5
Nadal over Bautista Agut in 4
Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
I have basically given my rational for the four semifinalists in my blurbs above. The Big 3 are just so much better than the rest of the field and Bautista Agut is in the form of his life and I trust him to win more than I trust the rest of the field, sans the Big 3. Medvedev gets major props for winning Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in the process), along with making the finals of Washington DC and Montreal. However, I don't think he will be able to redline over the course of best-off-five like he did against Djokovic in Cincinnati with the best-of-three format, and we saw in Australia that Medvedev will not be able to wear Djokovic down from the baseline in the best-of-five format.
In terms of the semifinals, I think that the loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon holds a lot of scar tissue for Federer and that Federer hasn't completely recovered, mentally, from that match. In another tight, huge match at a major against Djokovic, I just trust Djokovic more to come through in the big moments. Djokovic is in Federer's head, at this point. While Bautista Agut can out-grind many of his opponents, Rafael Nadal is not one of them. Nadal is much more of a dynamic shot-maker compared to Bautista-Agut, and shoudl be able to hit with as enough angles and variety to throw off Bautista-Agut. I look for Nadal to win that match without too much worry.
I can't pick Nadal to beat Djokovic after the final in Australia. Djokovic absolutely dominated that match and has won his last six straight sets in major finals on hard courts, winning both last year's Australian Open and the 2018 US Open (against Juan Martin del Potro) in straight sets. Yes, I have Djokovic playing 5 sets the match before against Federer, but a day' in-between matches should be enough, and I like Djokovic to win his third major of the year, and 17th major overall.
Novak Djokovic will be your 2019 US Open champion!
Saturday, May 25, 2019
French Open Men's Predictions
Quarterfinals:
Djokovic over Fognini in four
Thiem over Khachanov in four
Tsitsipas over Schwartzman in four
Nadal over Paire in three
Semifinals:
Djokovic over Thiem in five
Nadal over Tsitsipas in three
Final:
Nadal over Djokovic in four
Reasoning:
It seems like Twitter is erupting over Djokovic's draw, but given the level he has showed this clay court season, I don't see much reason for concern. Hurkacz is a tough first rounder, but Djokovic will neutralize his serve and force him into a bunch of errors. I have Djokovic beating Martinez, Munar, and Coric, all grinders (in ascending difficulty) who he should be able to get through pretty easily. These type of players don't have the weapons to hurt Novak.
I have Fognini going through because he has played really well this clay court season. He'll take on some tough clay courters along the way, including Delbonis (who played really in Geneva) and Bautista Agut, but Fabio should be too crafty for these players. I have Fognini beating Alexander Zverev in the round of 16, but I think that the only reason why Zverev even makes it to that stage is because of a very kind draw, and Fabio should win that match easily. Djokovic's 8-0 head-to-head of Fognini says a lot about how their games match up, and Djokovic will be too much for the Italian.
Dominic Thiem has a tough draw, and while he lost fairly early by his standards in Rome, that should provide him with the extra rest needed to go far. I have him taking on Paul, Molleker, Cuevas, and Verdasco (who just beat him in Rome) before even taking on Khachanov, but I think that best-of-five suits Thiem well. He plays so physical, and he is in such great shape, that he should be able to wear down his opponents, and the huge space at the back of Philippe Chatrier should provide him ample room behind the baseline (when he plays there), which is important because he stands so far back on the return of serve, which is hard to do on smaller courts.
I thought that Karen Khachanov turned a corner in Madrid from a tough start to the season, and this carried over in Rome. He got a pretty favorable draw, with the highest seed in his 8th of the draw being del Potro, who played well in Rome, but is still just returning from injury. The seed in his 16th of the draw is Pouille, which is not a scary seed and I have losing in the first round to Bolelli, and he will play Stebe in the first round and either Barrere or Ebden in the second round. Not bad. While Khachanov won their only match at the Paris indoor Masters 1000 event last year, I think that Thiem's heavy spin to the Khachanov backhand on clay will befuddle the Russian, and with one of Khachanov's biggest weapons, his serve, being partially neutralized by the clay, Thiem will win.
You might be shocked that I don't have Federer in the quarterfinals, but given this is his first best-of-five tournament on clay in years, I think that his draw is very tough. His first round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, has had good results on clay this season. In the third round he will likely play Matteo Berrettini, who has already won a clay court tournament this season and beaten Alexander Zverev in another clay court tournament.
And by the time he reaches, Schwartzman, I think he will be fatigued from all the tennis. Schwartzman has lost 7-5 in the third (best-of-three) to Federer before, and he really found his form last week, beating Berrettini and Nishikori, and then taking Djokovic to three sets. I think he carries over this good form to Roland Garros, a tournament in which he made the quarterfinals last year, getting a set off of Nadal. His draw is tough, Fucsovics in the first round, and either Kohlschreiber or Cecchinato in the third round, but I think Diego makes it to Federer, and beats him in a tough round of 16 match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been so impressive this clay court season. He beat Rafael Nadal in Madrid, won Estoril, and beat Fognini in straight sets in a night match on Pietrangeli. His backhand, which is perceived as the weakness in his game, is so solid, and his draw sets him up pretty well. He should force his first round opponent, Maximillian Marterer into too many errors, and my projected second and third round opponents for Tsitsipas, Dellien and Carballes Baena, don't have the weapons to hurt him. His seed in the 16th of his draw, Frances Tiafoe, I have losing in the first round to Filip Krajinovic, and the top seed in his 8th of the draw, Marin Cilic, is struggling this season and is not great on clay. I have Tsitsipas beating Christian Garin in the round of 16, and while Garin is tough, he did win two clay court tournament this season and made the final of another, he is another player who doesn't have the weapons to hurt Tsitsipas. Then in the quarterfinal, I think Schwartzman after beating Federer, is going to be out of gas, and Tsitsipas should have a fairly comfortable match on route to the semifinals.
The bottom quarter of the draw is not going to super interesting, because Nadal will dominate. He's won Roland Garros 11 times, and I don't see anyone in this quarter that could beat him. His first minor test will be in the third round against David Goffin, but Goffin is not playing nearly well enough to challenge Nadal. In the fourth round, I have Rafa taking on Guido Pella, who challenged him for a set in Monte Carlo, but again, in best-of-five against Rafa on clay, you have to play out of your mind for extremely long periods of time, and Pella doesn't have the level to match Rafa for more than a set, as we saw in Monte Carlo.
I have Nadal playing Benoit Paire in the quarterfinals. Paire just won his second clay court tournament today in Lyon, and is playing so well. When his backhand, serve, and drop shot are working, he is extremely difficult to beat and I think he brings that good form to Paris. His draw sets him up well, until the quarterfinals. Copil shouldn't challenge him in the first round, and Medvedev, while he's had good success this clay court season, will be very frustrated by the changes of pace that Paire provides, just as he was frustrated by Krygios in Rome. Sousa and Ramos, my projected opponents for Paire in the third and fourth rounds, while good on clay, also will be puzzled by Paire's unconventional game, at the level it's at right now. Paire's serve is so well-placed, it's a very underrated part of his game. But, it won't be enough to trouble Nadal. Not even close.
In the semifinals, we will get an absolute battle between Djokovic and Thiem. This will be an absolute classic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-2, but it's 3-2 Djokovic on clay. They've split their two matchups at Roland Garros. I'm very 50/50 on this match, it will come down to very fine margins. Will Thiem's heavy, hard-hitting groundstrokes be able to break through against the Djokovic defense? Or will Novak's counterpunching prevail? It's hard to beat Djokovic three-out-five, and as the match wears on, Djokovic's extreme fitness will start to take over. In the tight moments, who do you trust more? Djokovic wins.
The other semifinal is much more straightforward. Yes, Nadal lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid, but that was at altitude in best-of-three, and Nadal played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play on clay. In Rome, Nadal won comfortably in straight sets. And given how Philippe Chatrier's huge clay surface allows Rafa ample room to defend against Tsitsipas' groundstrokes, the result of this one should be no surprise: Nadal wins.
In the final, it will be the second Djokovic-Nadal matchup in a row. While Djokovic leads the head-to-head 28-26, and easily won the final in Australia, in their match in Rome, Nadal won in three sets, but only gave up one game in the two sets he won. While Djokovic was tired, this should be a confidence booster for Rafa. I think that fatigue could also play a role in this match, as Thiem will push Djokovic a lot harder than Tsitsipas will push Rafa. I think that Djokovic will be a step slow in this match, and that will be all Rafa needs to win fairly comfortably.
Rafael Nadal will be your 2019 French Open champion!
Djokovic over Fognini in four
Thiem over Khachanov in four
Tsitsipas over Schwartzman in four
Nadal over Paire in three
Semifinals:
Djokovic over Thiem in five
Nadal over Tsitsipas in three
Final:
Nadal over Djokovic in four
Reasoning:
It seems like Twitter is erupting over Djokovic's draw, but given the level he has showed this clay court season, I don't see much reason for concern. Hurkacz is a tough first rounder, but Djokovic will neutralize his serve and force him into a bunch of errors. I have Djokovic beating Martinez, Munar, and Coric, all grinders (in ascending difficulty) who he should be able to get through pretty easily. These type of players don't have the weapons to hurt Novak.
I have Fognini going through because he has played really well this clay court season. He'll take on some tough clay courters along the way, including Delbonis (who played really in Geneva) and Bautista Agut, but Fabio should be too crafty for these players. I have Fognini beating Alexander Zverev in the round of 16, but I think that the only reason why Zverev even makes it to that stage is because of a very kind draw, and Fabio should win that match easily. Djokovic's 8-0 head-to-head of Fognini says a lot about how their games match up, and Djokovic will be too much for the Italian.
Dominic Thiem has a tough draw, and while he lost fairly early by his standards in Rome, that should provide him with the extra rest needed to go far. I have him taking on Paul, Molleker, Cuevas, and Verdasco (who just beat him in Rome) before even taking on Khachanov, but I think that best-of-five suits Thiem well. He plays so physical, and he is in such great shape, that he should be able to wear down his opponents, and the huge space at the back of Philippe Chatrier should provide him ample room behind the baseline (when he plays there), which is important because he stands so far back on the return of serve, which is hard to do on smaller courts.
I thought that Karen Khachanov turned a corner in Madrid from a tough start to the season, and this carried over in Rome. He got a pretty favorable draw, with the highest seed in his 8th of the draw being del Potro, who played well in Rome, but is still just returning from injury. The seed in his 16th of the draw is Pouille, which is not a scary seed and I have losing in the first round to Bolelli, and he will play Stebe in the first round and either Barrere or Ebden in the second round. Not bad. While Khachanov won their only match at the Paris indoor Masters 1000 event last year, I think that Thiem's heavy spin to the Khachanov backhand on clay will befuddle the Russian, and with one of Khachanov's biggest weapons, his serve, being partially neutralized by the clay, Thiem will win.
You might be shocked that I don't have Federer in the quarterfinals, but given this is his first best-of-five tournament on clay in years, I think that his draw is very tough. His first round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, has had good results on clay this season. In the third round he will likely play Matteo Berrettini, who has already won a clay court tournament this season and beaten Alexander Zverev in another clay court tournament.
And by the time he reaches, Schwartzman, I think he will be fatigued from all the tennis. Schwartzman has lost 7-5 in the third (best-of-three) to Federer before, and he really found his form last week, beating Berrettini and Nishikori, and then taking Djokovic to three sets. I think he carries over this good form to Roland Garros, a tournament in which he made the quarterfinals last year, getting a set off of Nadal. His draw is tough, Fucsovics in the first round, and either Kohlschreiber or Cecchinato in the third round, but I think Diego makes it to Federer, and beats him in a tough round of 16 match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been so impressive this clay court season. He beat Rafael Nadal in Madrid, won Estoril, and beat Fognini in straight sets in a night match on Pietrangeli. His backhand, which is perceived as the weakness in his game, is so solid, and his draw sets him up pretty well. He should force his first round opponent, Maximillian Marterer into too many errors, and my projected second and third round opponents for Tsitsipas, Dellien and Carballes Baena, don't have the weapons to hurt him. His seed in the 16th of his draw, Frances Tiafoe, I have losing in the first round to Filip Krajinovic, and the top seed in his 8th of the draw, Marin Cilic, is struggling this season and is not great on clay. I have Tsitsipas beating Christian Garin in the round of 16, and while Garin is tough, he did win two clay court tournament this season and made the final of another, he is another player who doesn't have the weapons to hurt Tsitsipas. Then in the quarterfinal, I think Schwartzman after beating Federer, is going to be out of gas, and Tsitsipas should have a fairly comfortable match on route to the semifinals.
The bottom quarter of the draw is not going to super interesting, because Nadal will dominate. He's won Roland Garros 11 times, and I don't see anyone in this quarter that could beat him. His first minor test will be in the third round against David Goffin, but Goffin is not playing nearly well enough to challenge Nadal. In the fourth round, I have Rafa taking on Guido Pella, who challenged him for a set in Monte Carlo, but again, in best-of-five against Rafa on clay, you have to play out of your mind for extremely long periods of time, and Pella doesn't have the level to match Rafa for more than a set, as we saw in Monte Carlo.
I have Nadal playing Benoit Paire in the quarterfinals. Paire just won his second clay court tournament today in Lyon, and is playing so well. When his backhand, serve, and drop shot are working, he is extremely difficult to beat and I think he brings that good form to Paris. His draw sets him up well, until the quarterfinals. Copil shouldn't challenge him in the first round, and Medvedev, while he's had good success this clay court season, will be very frustrated by the changes of pace that Paire provides, just as he was frustrated by Krygios in Rome. Sousa and Ramos, my projected opponents for Paire in the third and fourth rounds, while good on clay, also will be puzzled by Paire's unconventional game, at the level it's at right now. Paire's serve is so well-placed, it's a very underrated part of his game. But, it won't be enough to trouble Nadal. Not even close.
In the semifinals, we will get an absolute battle between Djokovic and Thiem. This will be an absolute classic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-2, but it's 3-2 Djokovic on clay. They've split their two matchups at Roland Garros. I'm very 50/50 on this match, it will come down to very fine margins. Will Thiem's heavy, hard-hitting groundstrokes be able to break through against the Djokovic defense? Or will Novak's counterpunching prevail? It's hard to beat Djokovic three-out-five, and as the match wears on, Djokovic's extreme fitness will start to take over. In the tight moments, who do you trust more? Djokovic wins.
The other semifinal is much more straightforward. Yes, Nadal lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid, but that was at altitude in best-of-three, and Nadal played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play on clay. In Rome, Nadal won comfortably in straight sets. And given how Philippe Chatrier's huge clay surface allows Rafa ample room to defend against Tsitsipas' groundstrokes, the result of this one should be no surprise: Nadal wins.
In the final, it will be the second Djokovic-Nadal matchup in a row. While Djokovic leads the head-to-head 28-26, and easily won the final in Australia, in their match in Rome, Nadal won in three sets, but only gave up one game in the two sets he won. While Djokovic was tired, this should be a confidence booster for Rafa. I think that fatigue could also play a role in this match, as Thiem will push Djokovic a lot harder than Tsitsipas will push Rafa. I think that Djokovic will be a step slow in this match, and that will be all Rafa needs to win fairly comfortably.
Rafael Nadal will be your 2019 French Open champion!
Monday, February 18, 2019
ATP Rio de Janeiro Preview
Last week, I decided to preview the ATP event in Buenos Aires. This week, because I love clay court tennis, I decided to preview the ATP event in Rio de Janeiro. This event is bigger than Buenos Aires, with 500 points, as opposed to 250 in Buenos Aires. Therefore, the stakes are high and this is a great chance, given the small number of top players playing, to get a big point haul.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
Monday, February 11, 2019
ATP Buenos Aires Preview
I thought for my next post I would give a tournament preview, and since I love clay court tennis, I chose Buenos Aires. This ATP 250 tournament should be a very good one. In last week's South American clay court tournament, Juan Ignacio Londero got his first ever ATP World Tour title, beating Guido Pella in three sets in the Final. Londero played well all week, attacking opponents with his potent forehand, and playing smart clay court tennis. As someone who's watched Londero climb through the rankings, it was great to see. Pella also played an excellent tournament. Guido had three big wins in a row, beating Ramos, Schwartzman, and Cuevas. On a clay court, beating those three in a row is not an easy feat.
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
Monday, February 26, 2018
Diego Schwartzman Continues To Impress in Rio de Janeiro
Over the past few days, Howard Bryant and I got into a little bit of an argument over this tweet regarding Monfils' match against Diego Schwartzman. Although, in hindsight, it doesn't seem like Bryant was intentionally being disrespectful to Schwartzman, by essentially reprimading Monfils for losing to Schwartzman, a player that previously took Monfils to five sets in the 2015 French Open, it sets the narrative that Schwartzman is some nobody who lacks the the talent that Monfils has.
But, this article is not saying that Monfils is not talented or that Howard Bryant doesn't know what he's talking about. Because both of those wouldn't be correct. Monfils is an extremely talented player and I truly believe, after exchanging tweets with Bryant that he didn't mean to come across as demeaning regarding Schwartzman. Instead, I was inspired by Bryant's tweet, and I want to use this article as a way to honor Schwartzman for his incredible achievements.
There has always been something fascinating, something really extraordinary, about short athletes doing great things. That's why an NBA players like Nate Robinson was so cool to watch, or how spectacular it is to see Drew Brees play the QB position in the supreme manner that he does. And the same principle goes for Diego Schwartzman.
At Diego's height of 5 foot, seven inches, upon first glance, it would not appear that Schwartzman could compete with many modern day tennis players. In today's game, it feels as if big serves and crushing forehands are the only way to play the game, and the variety of the past had been thrown out of the window.
Schwartzman goes against that logic, which is, perhaps, why his game is so refreshing. Now, I'm not saying that he can't serve big or that his forehand is weak. That is far from the case. Schwartzman did hit a couple of aces yesterday and his groundstrokes are very heavy and cause opponents many difficulties. But, what I'm trying to convey is that modern day player, at least in the eyes of the public, is more like John Isner and less like Diego Schwartzman, who also frequently uses variety and endurance in rallies to win his matches.
At least in my eyes, Schwartzman first came onto the scene when he battled Roger Federer in a clay court tournament in Istanbul in 2015. Sure, Schwartzman had been tearing up the clay court Challenger circuit, and had beat players like Alexander Zverev, Thiago Monteiro, and Jerzy Janowicz in his career, but he had yet to sustain a deep run in an ATP Tournament, as he had mostly been grinding through Challenger and Futures tournaments (successfully).
In that Semifinals match with Federer, after not being able to take a set in his two prior matches with Roger, easily took the first set, and played a very close third set, losing 7-5 in the third. It's a match like that, despite the loss, that can prove to a player, in their own mind, that they can compete at the level needed to be successful on the ATP World Tour. And, I have a feeling that this could very well have been the case for Schwartzman.
Over the next year, Schwartzman continued to battle his way through Challenger tournaments and onto the main tour, beating players like Berlocq, Dolgopolov, and Muller. Then, in Istanbul the year following the Federer match, he had his breakthrough. Diego fought hard, winning three set battles over Dzumhur and Delbonis in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals before coming back to beat Grigor Dimitrov in a three setter, which featured a bagel in the third set (although that was partially due to code violations from Grigor, which were partially due to Schwartzman's incredible consistency).
Winning an ATP World Tour title was an amazing feat for Schwartzman, especially given the narrative that short people can't compete at the level necessary to play professional tennis. But, unfortunately due to Dimitrov's code violations, the spotlight was placed too much on Grigor and not enough on Diego. The match was thought of more as "Did you see Grigor Dimitrov melt down?" than "Diego Schwartzman played an incredible match and tournament".
But, that was not the end of the story for Diego. His level continued to rise. Schwartzman continued to win Challengers, and in addition, he made the Final of the ATP World Tour tournament in Antwerp, a tournament in which he beat Pablo Cuevas and David Goffin, before losing in the Final to Richard Gasquet. Schwartzman made the Final of Antwerp again last year, losing a fairly competitive match to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Schwartzman also had impressive wins in 2017 over players like Karen Karen Khachanov, David Ferrer (twice), Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem, and Marin Cilic, along with Lucas Pouille as part of Schwartzman's first run to a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open.
But, still, Schwartzman had one title that was thought of, in the general public, as more of the "Grigor Dimitrov meltdown" match than the "Diego Schwartzman" first title match.
That's why, in addition to Rio being Schwartzman's first ATP World Tour title at the 500 level, this title was so special for Diego. And it wasn't like Schwartzman had an easy road either. Playing guys like Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco on clay are brutal. Verdasco, for instance, had destroyed this week's Buenos Aires champion, and last year's French Open semifinalist, Dominic Thiem, 6-4, 6-0 in a prior round. But, Schwartzman took him out as if it were no problem, losing only five games in a straight set win. In fact, Schwartzman didn't lose a set all tournament. It was a spectacular tournament for Schwartzman and sets up the rest of the season very nicely for him.
I can't help but wonder how far Schwartzman can go. I'm sure pundits will continue to discount him due to his height, but that hasn't stopped him previously and it won't stop him in future tournaments. As I said on tennis twitter yesterday, there is only one player on clay that I don't think Schwartzman can beat, Rafael Nadal. So, with any clay tournament he plays, if Nadal is upset, I give Diego a great chance to win the tournament.
Obviously, this does not mean that I think Schwartzman is the second-favorite after Nadal to win a clay court masters event or the French Open. It just means that I think he has a big shot at it, if Nadal loses. But, I also don't want to discount Schwartzman's credentials on hard court. After all, he did make the Final of Antwerp twice, including a great win over Goffin in 2016, and his Quarterfinals run in the US Open in 2017 once again proved that he isn't a clay court-only type of player. Sure, Diego won't be tearing it up on a grass court, but he is extremely good on hard courts too.
For me, with Diego Schwartzman, the word that comes to mind is "impressive". Given his height, given the modern game where power is valued over anything else, it is so impressive to see Schwartzman's continued good results. Schwartzman can absorb and then redirect the powerful groundstrokes of his opponent better than almost anyone else on tour, and it is a pleasure to watch.
Keep impressing, Diego!
But, this article is not saying that Monfils is not talented or that Howard Bryant doesn't know what he's talking about. Because both of those wouldn't be correct. Monfils is an extremely talented player and I truly believe, after exchanging tweets with Bryant that he didn't mean to come across as demeaning regarding Schwartzman. Instead, I was inspired by Bryant's tweet, and I want to use this article as a way to honor Schwartzman for his incredible achievements.
There has always been something fascinating, something really extraordinary, about short athletes doing great things. That's why an NBA players like Nate Robinson was so cool to watch, or how spectacular it is to see Drew Brees play the QB position in the supreme manner that he does. And the same principle goes for Diego Schwartzman.
At Diego's height of 5 foot, seven inches, upon first glance, it would not appear that Schwartzman could compete with many modern day tennis players. In today's game, it feels as if big serves and crushing forehands are the only way to play the game, and the variety of the past had been thrown out of the window.
Schwartzman goes against that logic, which is, perhaps, why his game is so refreshing. Now, I'm not saying that he can't serve big or that his forehand is weak. That is far from the case. Schwartzman did hit a couple of aces yesterday and his groundstrokes are very heavy and cause opponents many difficulties. But, what I'm trying to convey is that modern day player, at least in the eyes of the public, is more like John Isner and less like Diego Schwartzman, who also frequently uses variety and endurance in rallies to win his matches.
At least in my eyes, Schwartzman first came onto the scene when he battled Roger Federer in a clay court tournament in Istanbul in 2015. Sure, Schwartzman had been tearing up the clay court Challenger circuit, and had beat players like Alexander Zverev, Thiago Monteiro, and Jerzy Janowicz in his career, but he had yet to sustain a deep run in an ATP Tournament, as he had mostly been grinding through Challenger and Futures tournaments (successfully).
In that Semifinals match with Federer, after not being able to take a set in his two prior matches with Roger, easily took the first set, and played a very close third set, losing 7-5 in the third. It's a match like that, despite the loss, that can prove to a player, in their own mind, that they can compete at the level needed to be successful on the ATP World Tour. And, I have a feeling that this could very well have been the case for Schwartzman.
Over the next year, Schwartzman continued to battle his way through Challenger tournaments and onto the main tour, beating players like Berlocq, Dolgopolov, and Muller. Then, in Istanbul the year following the Federer match, he had his breakthrough. Diego fought hard, winning three set battles over Dzumhur and Delbonis in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals before coming back to beat Grigor Dimitrov in a three setter, which featured a bagel in the third set (although that was partially due to code violations from Grigor, which were partially due to Schwartzman's incredible consistency).
Winning an ATP World Tour title was an amazing feat for Schwartzman, especially given the narrative that short people can't compete at the level necessary to play professional tennis. But, unfortunately due to Dimitrov's code violations, the spotlight was placed too much on Grigor and not enough on Diego. The match was thought of more as "Did you see Grigor Dimitrov melt down?" than "Diego Schwartzman played an incredible match and tournament".
But, that was not the end of the story for Diego. His level continued to rise. Schwartzman continued to win Challengers, and in addition, he made the Final of the ATP World Tour tournament in Antwerp, a tournament in which he beat Pablo Cuevas and David Goffin, before losing in the Final to Richard Gasquet. Schwartzman made the Final of Antwerp again last year, losing a fairly competitive match to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Schwartzman also had impressive wins in 2017 over players like Karen Karen Khachanov, David Ferrer (twice), Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem, and Marin Cilic, along with Lucas Pouille as part of Schwartzman's first run to a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open.
But, still, Schwartzman had one title that was thought of, in the general public, as more of the "Grigor Dimitrov meltdown" match than the "Diego Schwartzman" first title match.
That's why, in addition to Rio being Schwartzman's first ATP World Tour title at the 500 level, this title was so special for Diego. And it wasn't like Schwartzman had an easy road either. Playing guys like Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco on clay are brutal. Verdasco, for instance, had destroyed this week's Buenos Aires champion, and last year's French Open semifinalist, Dominic Thiem, 6-4, 6-0 in a prior round. But, Schwartzman took him out as if it were no problem, losing only five games in a straight set win. In fact, Schwartzman didn't lose a set all tournament. It was a spectacular tournament for Schwartzman and sets up the rest of the season very nicely for him.
I can't help but wonder how far Schwartzman can go. I'm sure pundits will continue to discount him due to his height, but that hasn't stopped him previously and it won't stop him in future tournaments. As I said on tennis twitter yesterday, there is only one player on clay that I don't think Schwartzman can beat, Rafael Nadal. So, with any clay tournament he plays, if Nadal is upset, I give Diego a great chance to win the tournament.
Obviously, this does not mean that I think Schwartzman is the second-favorite after Nadal to win a clay court masters event or the French Open. It just means that I think he has a big shot at it, if Nadal loses. But, I also don't want to discount Schwartzman's credentials on hard court. After all, he did make the Final of Antwerp twice, including a great win over Goffin in 2016, and his Quarterfinals run in the US Open in 2017 once again proved that he isn't a clay court-only type of player. Sure, Diego won't be tearing it up on a grass court, but he is extremely good on hard courts too.
For me, with Diego Schwartzman, the word that comes to mind is "impressive". Given his height, given the modern game where power is valued over anything else, it is so impressive to see Schwartzman's continued good results. Schwartzman can absorb and then redirect the powerful groundstrokes of his opponent better than almost anyone else on tour, and it is a pleasure to watch.
Keep impressing, Diego!
Sunday, August 30, 2015
A Look Into USO 1st Round Matches Involving The Rising ATP Stars
The 1st Round of the US Open is full of matches involving young, rising stars on the ATP World Tour. This post will look into Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric, Elias Ymer, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Frances Tiafoe's First Round matches and whether they will be moving onto the Second Round.
Alexander Zverev vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
In this matchup, 18 year-old Alexander Zverev, currently ranked number 76 in the world but still had to play qualies due to his ranking at the cutoff date, takes on the established Philipp Kohlschreiber. Philipp is ranked number 29 presently. This match is in the Federer quarter of the bracket. These two played in a 250 event in Munich this year, with Kohlschreiber easily winning the match 6-2, 6-4. So, will this match be any different? Well, Zverev's form has certainly been better than Kohlschreiber's on hard courts. Kohlschreiber has only played one match on hard courts since Wimbledon, tepidly losing to Joao Sousa in three sets (but with game differential of -7). Zverev, meanwhile, has made the Quarterfinals of Washington, and qualified for the Cincy Masters 1000, losing in a third set tiebreaker to Borna Coric. And Zverev will also have a better feel for the Flushing Meadow hard courts, with three qualifying wins already under his belt. However, I don't feel as if it will be enough. Losing a set to Nils Langer was disturbing enough for me to feel as if Zverev has cooled down some from his previous form, and his match with Dodig was tight as well. Although Philipp might start slow from lack of play on hard, he will prevail in the end. Prediction: Kohlschreiber in four sets.
Borna Coric vs. Rafael Nadal
This is a classic matchup between a rising star and a hardened champion. Rafael Nadal, currently number seven in the world, will need to be playing his best tennis in order to take out Borna Coric, the highest ranked "young gun" at number 33. Rafa should be on high alert for this matchup not only due to Coric's ranked but also the head to head, which shows Borna leading 1-0, with a 6-2, 7-6(4) win over Nadal in Basel last year. Although, it should be noted that Rafa was carrying an internal injury for that match involving his appendix. Rafa and Borna have faired similarly on the North American hard courts, with Nadal boasting a 3-2 record and Coric having a 3-3 record. For both players, the results have just been average, certainly not up to Rafa's standards. You have to think that Rafa will be very fired-up for this match, as his loss to Coric last year was seen as embarrassing and was really the start to the questioning of Nadal's decline. I believe Nadal will play inspired tennis in front of a rowdy New York crowd, which could very well intimidate Coric. Prediction: Nadal in three tight sets.
Elias Ymer vs. Diego Schwartzman
The "young gun" Elias Ymer takes on grinder Diego Schwartzman in what seems to be a pretty even matchup. Ymer, ranked 131 in the world, and Schwartzman, ranked 73 in the world, have never played one another. This is Ymer's fourth time this year qualifying for a major, which can be looked at in two ways. Either you praise him for continuing to qualify for the major, or you wonder why he hasn't gotten direct entry into the majors yet. It is important to note that Ymer hasn't yet won a match at a major in his career and has one main-draw win at a hard court event all year. It should be noted that Schwartzman certainly prefers clay courts, while Ymer is an unknown at this point as to his preferred surface. Schwartzman skipped Montreal and Cincy, but did play Winston-Salem winning two matches before bowing out to Borna Coric. Schwartzman is a Sara Errani-type player in which his serve is not great, but his return is very good. Ymer has recently played two hard court challengers, going 1-2 and certainly not putting his best foot forward. He will have the experience of playing in the Flushing Meadows, however, with three qualifying wins, including a third set tiebreak win over Struff. Ultimately, the lack of wins outside of grand slam qualifying is disturbing for Ymer. And while Schwartzman is certainly not a world beater, he possesses a game in which he will expose the weaknesses in Ymer's game. I don't think Elias has the serve to overpower Diego, and his return isn't good enough to take the match, although he should be just good enough to take a set. Prediction: Schwartzman in four sets.
Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
In this matchup, the 150th ranked Nishioka faces the 81st ranked Mathieu (who had to qualify due to the time of the ranking deadline) in a battle between two qualifiers. Nishioka has played a lot of hard court tennis since failing to qualify for Wimbledon. Yoshihito has played in four hard court tournaments (three challengers and Washington), qualifying for Washington but losing in the First Round to Zverev in straight sets and reaching two quarters and a semi in the challenger events. This was all before playing three straight three-setters in qualifying to the US Open. Mathieu had great success on the clay after Wimbledon, making the Final of Kitzbuhel as a qualifier before losing in three sets to Kohlschreiber, and took this good form onto the hard courts, only losing one set in qualifying. Mathieu is having a great run, and Nishioka has played a ton of tennis recently, which could catch up to him in the best-of-five format. Prediction: Mathieu in three sets.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Viktor Troicki
Frances Tiafoe, a wildcard ranked number 248 in the world, battles Viktor Troicki, currently ranked number 21. While on paper, this might seem like a mismatch, when one looks deeper, it turns out to be a tight matchup. Tiafoe earned his wildcard by winning the prestigious junior event in Kalamazoo, showing that the best-of-five format will not trouble him, as he beat Kozlov in the Final in five sets. Tiafoe continued with this good form at Winston-Salem, qualifying for the tournament (including impressive wins over Albot and Harrison), before winning his first-ever ATP main draw match against Duckworth and taking the established Bellucci to a third-set tiebreak after being up a break in the third set. Triocki has been dreadful during the summer hard court season, losing all four matches he has played on hard, only managing to take a single set. This poor run included shocking losses to Youznhy, Fish, and Jaziri, so a loss to Tiafoe is certainly not out of the question. It's also important to remember that Tiafoe will have all of the crowd support in this match, and will certainly be buoyed on by the crowd. Frances has certainly had his share of dramatic matches this season, and this match will be no different. Viktor will certainly not be in the right state of mind, and the crowd will further this feeling. This will be the upset of the tournament. Prediction: Tiafoe in five sets.
Alexander Zverev vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
In this matchup, 18 year-old Alexander Zverev, currently ranked number 76 in the world but still had to play qualies due to his ranking at the cutoff date, takes on the established Philipp Kohlschreiber. Philipp is ranked number 29 presently. This match is in the Federer quarter of the bracket. These two played in a 250 event in Munich this year, with Kohlschreiber easily winning the match 6-2, 6-4. So, will this match be any different? Well, Zverev's form has certainly been better than Kohlschreiber's on hard courts. Kohlschreiber has only played one match on hard courts since Wimbledon, tepidly losing to Joao Sousa in three sets (but with game differential of -7). Zverev, meanwhile, has made the Quarterfinals of Washington, and qualified for the Cincy Masters 1000, losing in a third set tiebreaker to Borna Coric. And Zverev will also have a better feel for the Flushing Meadow hard courts, with three qualifying wins already under his belt. However, I don't feel as if it will be enough. Losing a set to Nils Langer was disturbing enough for me to feel as if Zverev has cooled down some from his previous form, and his match with Dodig was tight as well. Although Philipp might start slow from lack of play on hard, he will prevail in the end. Prediction: Kohlschreiber in four sets.
Borna Coric vs. Rafael Nadal
This is a classic matchup between a rising star and a hardened champion. Rafael Nadal, currently number seven in the world, will need to be playing his best tennis in order to take out Borna Coric, the highest ranked "young gun" at number 33. Rafa should be on high alert for this matchup not only due to Coric's ranked but also the head to head, which shows Borna leading 1-0, with a 6-2, 7-6(4) win over Nadal in Basel last year. Although, it should be noted that Rafa was carrying an internal injury for that match involving his appendix. Rafa and Borna have faired similarly on the North American hard courts, with Nadal boasting a 3-2 record and Coric having a 3-3 record. For both players, the results have just been average, certainly not up to Rafa's standards. You have to think that Rafa will be very fired-up for this match, as his loss to Coric last year was seen as embarrassing and was really the start to the questioning of Nadal's decline. I believe Nadal will play inspired tennis in front of a rowdy New York crowd, which could very well intimidate Coric. Prediction: Nadal in three tight sets.
Elias Ymer vs. Diego Schwartzman
The "young gun" Elias Ymer takes on grinder Diego Schwartzman in what seems to be a pretty even matchup. Ymer, ranked 131 in the world, and Schwartzman, ranked 73 in the world, have never played one another. This is Ymer's fourth time this year qualifying for a major, which can be looked at in two ways. Either you praise him for continuing to qualify for the major, or you wonder why he hasn't gotten direct entry into the majors yet. It is important to note that Ymer hasn't yet won a match at a major in his career and has one main-draw win at a hard court event all year. It should be noted that Schwartzman certainly prefers clay courts, while Ymer is an unknown at this point as to his preferred surface. Schwartzman skipped Montreal and Cincy, but did play Winston-Salem winning two matches before bowing out to Borna Coric. Schwartzman is a Sara Errani-type player in which his serve is not great, but his return is very good. Ymer has recently played two hard court challengers, going 1-2 and certainly not putting his best foot forward. He will have the experience of playing in the Flushing Meadows, however, with three qualifying wins, including a third set tiebreak win over Struff. Ultimately, the lack of wins outside of grand slam qualifying is disturbing for Ymer. And while Schwartzman is certainly not a world beater, he possesses a game in which he will expose the weaknesses in Ymer's game. I don't think Elias has the serve to overpower Diego, and his return isn't good enough to take the match, although he should be just good enough to take a set. Prediction: Schwartzman in four sets.
Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
In this matchup, the 150th ranked Nishioka faces the 81st ranked Mathieu (who had to qualify due to the time of the ranking deadline) in a battle between two qualifiers. Nishioka has played a lot of hard court tennis since failing to qualify for Wimbledon. Yoshihito has played in four hard court tournaments (three challengers and Washington), qualifying for Washington but losing in the First Round to Zverev in straight sets and reaching two quarters and a semi in the challenger events. This was all before playing three straight three-setters in qualifying to the US Open. Mathieu had great success on the clay after Wimbledon, making the Final of Kitzbuhel as a qualifier before losing in three sets to Kohlschreiber, and took this good form onto the hard courts, only losing one set in qualifying. Mathieu is having a great run, and Nishioka has played a ton of tennis recently, which could catch up to him in the best-of-five format. Prediction: Mathieu in three sets.
Frances Tiafoe vs. Viktor Troicki
Frances Tiafoe, a wildcard ranked number 248 in the world, battles Viktor Troicki, currently ranked number 21. While on paper, this might seem like a mismatch, when one looks deeper, it turns out to be a tight matchup. Tiafoe earned his wildcard by winning the prestigious junior event in Kalamazoo, showing that the best-of-five format will not trouble him, as he beat Kozlov in the Final in five sets. Tiafoe continued with this good form at Winston-Salem, qualifying for the tournament (including impressive wins over Albot and Harrison), before winning his first-ever ATP main draw match against Duckworth and taking the established Bellucci to a third-set tiebreak after being up a break in the third set. Triocki has been dreadful during the summer hard court season, losing all four matches he has played on hard, only managing to take a single set. This poor run included shocking losses to Youznhy, Fish, and Jaziri, so a loss to Tiafoe is certainly not out of the question. It's also important to remember that Tiafoe will have all of the crowd support in this match, and will certainly be buoyed on by the crowd. Frances has certainly had his share of dramatic matches this season, and this match will be no different. Viktor will certainly not be in the right state of mind, and the crowd will further this feeling. This will be the upset of the tournament. Prediction: Tiafoe in five sets.
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