Monday, August 28, 2017

The Decision to Play a Challenger Instead of US Open Qualifying

As the singles qualifying tournament started last week, players from around the world battled for the incredible chance to play at one of the four biggest tennis tournaments in the world: the US Open. The US Open, with it's total purse of $36,324,000 for the men's and women's singles tournament and a $1,938,400 purse for the qualifying tournament alone in women's and men's singles tournament, not to mention the many ranking points to be gained at the US Open, would seem like an opportunity too good to pass up. However, many male players in the clay court Manerbio Challenger did pass up the opportunity to play in the US Open and opted for a Challenger instead. This article will look at the ramifications of male players playing in the Manerbio Challenger as opposed to US Open qualifying.

From a points perspective, I can, perhaps, understand the decision to play a Challenger instead of trying to qualify for a Grand Slam. A realistic goal at a clay court Challenger where many of the top clay court players are in New York City trying to qualify for the US Open would be the Semifinals. And, the Semifinals of the Manebrio Challenger does give out 29 ranking points. However, a quick First Round loss doesn't give a player any ranking points, and a Second Round loss isn't much better, only handing out six ranking points. A Quarterfinalist would get 15 ranking points. A Finalist in Manerbio would receive 48 ranking points, while the winner receives 80 ranking points.

Qualifying and then losing in the First Round of the US Open, however, would give you more points than even a Semifinals at this Challenger event, giving qualifiers 35 points. Qualifiers get 25 points for qualifying and then 10 more points for losing in the First Round. So, essentially, by winning the same number of matches (3), you would get 6 more points by playing qualifying at the US Open.

Now, the rankings of the players playing US Open qualifying are generally, on the whole, higher than the rankings of players playing in Manerbio, so an argument could be made that it makes more sense to try to play in Manerbio as compared to New York City. However, you never know with the draws, and even if a player doesn't think he can qualify, he could still get a favorable draw and have a good shot at qualifying and a good draw in the main draw could even give a player a chance of winning even more (where the potential monetary and ranking possibilities sky rocket).

From a monetary perspective, it just makes much more sense for players who can play in US Open qualifying to do so. A lot of these qualifiers for the US Open are in a financial battle to stay on the tour, and even a First Round loss in qualifying can do a lot of good for players struggling financially. The differences in prize money in Manerbio compared to US Open qualifying are substantial.

A First Round loss in Manerbio will give a player 450 Euros, which is the equivalent of $483.36. Now, I'm sure a lot of players will say that they don't expect to lose in the First Round, but upsets happen. In contrast, a First Round loss in US Open qualifying will hand a player $5,606 dollars. That's over a $5000 dollar difference! A Second Round loss in Manerbio gives player 730 Euros, or $871.25. A Second Round loss in US Open qualifying $10,900 for over a $9000 difference. Again, sure there are generally higher ranked players in US Open qualifying as compared to Manerbio, but these differences in prize money for winning the same number of matches are incredible to think about.

A player would have to win Manerbio in order to get more money than they would have won losing in the First Round of US Open qualifying. Players winning all five matches in Manerbio would receive less money than winning one match in US Open qualifying. From a purely monetary perspective, it just seems to make a lot more sense to at least head to New York and hope to qualify. While I don't totally understand how this works, qualifiers for the US Open women's and men's singles tournament make $16,350, while women's and men's players losing in the First Round of the main draw make $43,313. Those are staggering cash amounts which are just much greater than what a player could make in Manerbio. And if a player goes further than the First Round of the main draw of the US Open, the numbers for money earned (in addition to ranking points earned) really sky rocket.

This post is not meant to shame anyone who decided to play in Manerbio instead of the US Open. I understand that a lot of players would much rather play on a clay court as opposed to a hard court, and would, thus, prefer to play on the clay courts of Manerbio as opposed to the hard courts of Flushing Meadows. I also understand that travel is expensive, and going to New York City could be much more expensive than going to Manerbio.

However, in my opinion, the potential for financial and ranking gain is very high for US Open qualifying and the draw could always be very favorable to a player! In any case, with US Open qualifying over, it is time for the US Open to begin later this morning. Enjoy the last major of the season!

Saturday, August 26, 2017

US Open Men's First Round Upset Predictions

With the men's US Open draw officially out, it is now time to make bold predictions and predict upsets that will look foolish within 30 minutes of play beginning on Monday. But, alas, I will still try my best to predict the big upsets that I think will occur in the US Open men's tournament. For the purposes of this post, upset predictions will be made based on non-seeds beating seeds and not on the odds for each match.

US Open Men's First Round Upset Predictions

Damir Dzumhur to beat Pablo Cuevas (27) in four sets: Dzumhur has looked fantastic this week in Winston-Salem, playing in the Final today. He has beaten very solid players this week, defeating players such as Gilles Simon, Hyeon Chung, and Kyle Edmund. Cuevas, on the other hand, has been in very poor form. Pablo has lost five matches in a row and has only played in one hard court tournament this summer, losing in straight sets to Jan-Lennard Struff. What worries me about picking Dzumhur in this matchup is the fact that he could be fatigued. He made the Final of a clay court tournament last week and is in the Final of Winston-Salem this week. On the hot hard courts of Flushing Meadows, he could crack. Still, I like Dzumhur to win this match.

Jordan Thompson to beat Jack Sock (13) in five sets: I really liked how Thompson played in Washington. His match over Bemelmans was thorough domination and then he played Alexander Zverev the closest that anyone played him in Washington that week, losing 7-5 in a third set tiebreak. The fact that Zverev won Washington and Montreal makes his efforts against Alexander even more impressive. Thompson plays that pesky game that annoys opponents, much like Dzumhur. Thompson has also done well recently on the Challenger circuit, making the Final of Binghampton and Vancouver. Sock has lost three of his past four matches and has not been playing well ever since his victory over Milos Raonic in Washington. In addition, when these played before in a Davis Cup match in Australia earlier this year, Thompson won in four sets. And while the crowd should help Jack, I think Thompson style of play bothers Jack greatly and Sock wilts in the New York heat. This match could be similar to the match that Sock played against a similarly styled player in Yuichi Sugita, where Sock lost in straight sets.


So, those are the only seeds I have losing are these two, which obviously is unlikely to occur, but I am just trying to be honest with how I see these games playing out and not just pick upsets for the sake of picking upsets. But obviously, because I picked so few upsets, expect about 10 seeds to be out by the time morning play starts on Tuesday!

US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions

With the women's US Open draw officially out, it is now time to make bold predictions and predict upsets that will look foolish within 30 minutes of play beginning on Monday. But, alas, I will still try my best to predict the big upsets that I think will occur in the US Open women's tournament. For the purposes of this post, upset predictions will be made based on non-seeds beating seeds and not on the odds for each match.

US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions

Sabine Lisicki to beat Shuai Zhang (27) in three sets: I am making this prediction for two reasons. First, despite having a good week in New Haven, including a straight sets victory over Petra Kvitova, Zhang had to pull out of the Connecticut Open with injury. I could tell she wasn't 100% healthy when she took a medical timeout in the Round of 16 against Magda Linette, and that was proven to be the case when she withdrew from the tournament. Second, Lisicki played well enough in Washington, making the Quarterfinals, that I feel confident enough that she will capitalize on this opportunity and win the match.

Lucie Safarova to beat Anett Kontaveit (26) in three sets: I'm not very confident about this one, but I saw enough in Toronto for me to think that she will pull the upset. Safarova won three matches in Toronto, including impressive victories over Dominika Cibulkova and Ekaterina Makarova. Yes, she lost to Sloane Stephens in Toronto and Cincinnati, but I think that's more of a matchup problem as opposed to anything regarding Lucie's form. Kontaveit form has also cooled off recently, losing in the First Round of Cincinnati and New Haven.

Camila Giorgi to beat Magdalena Rybarikova (31) in three sets: These two just played in Cincinnati, with Giorgi winning in two sets. I am not convinced of Rybarikova as a top-echelon player. Yes, she played amazing tennis at Wimbledon that showed how much variety she has in her arsenal, but I don't think she can sustain top tennis in the long haul. Yes, Rybarikova won in New Haven in 2014, but she didn't make it out of qualifying in Cincinnati nor New Haven, and the only reason she made it out of qualifying in Toronto is because she got into the draw as a lucky loser. Giorgi also looked very good in Cincinnati and came within one set of the Quarterfinals.

Ashleigh Barty to beat Ana Konjuh (21) in two sets: Barty looked great in Cincinnati. She qualified and made the Round of 16 of Cincinnati and had a very impressive win over Venus Williams. Until she played Caroline Wozniacki in the Round of 16, she had only dropped one set in qualifying and the main draw combined. Barty also qualified and made the Round of 16 in Toronto, coming within one set of the Quarterfinals. Konjuh, meanwhile, has lost three matches in a row, which included a retirement in Toronto.

Sofia Kenin to beat Lauren Davis (32) in three sets: Davis has lost six matches in a row, not winning a match since Eastbourne, where (despite winning a qualifying match) the only reason she got into the main draw and not out in the Final Qualifying Round was because she was a lucky loser. In her six match losing streak, she has only won one set and won nine games combined in the past two matches. Kenin did lose in qualifying of Cincinnati and New Haven, but earlier this summer won an ITF tournament in Stockton, made the Final of another in Lexington, and made the Semifinals of another in Sacramento.

The popular upset pick will probably be Maria Sharapova to beat Simona Halep (2), given the 6-0 head to head lead for Sharapova and the fact that she has five majors to Halep's zero. However, I don't see it happening. Sharapova has played only a single match since retiring in Rome, and had to withdraw from the next tournament she played in Stanford. And she was taken to three sets in that match in Stanford that she did play against Jennifer Brady. I don't think Sharapova has the matchplay necessary to beat Halep, and so I think Simona wins that match in three sets.