Quarterfinals:
Djokovic over Fognini in four
Thiem over Khachanov in four
Tsitsipas over Schwartzman in four
Nadal over Paire in three
Semifinals:
Djokovic over Thiem in five
Nadal over Tsitsipas in three
Final:
Nadal over Djokovic in four
Reasoning:
It seems like Twitter is erupting over Djokovic's draw, but given the level he has showed this clay court season, I don't see much reason for concern. Hurkacz is a tough first rounder, but Djokovic will neutralize his serve and force him into a bunch of errors. I have Djokovic beating Martinez, Munar, and Coric, all grinders (in ascending difficulty) who he should be able to get through pretty easily. These type of players don't have the weapons to hurt Novak.
I have Fognini going through because he has played really well this clay court season. He'll take on some tough clay courters along the way, including Delbonis (who played really in Geneva) and Bautista Agut, but Fabio should be too crafty for these players. I have Fognini beating Alexander Zverev in the round of 16, but I think that the only reason why Zverev even makes it to that stage is because of a very kind draw, and Fabio should win that match easily. Djokovic's 8-0 head-to-head of Fognini says a lot about how their games match up, and Djokovic will be too much for the Italian.
Dominic Thiem has a tough draw, and while he lost fairly early by his standards in Rome, that should provide him with the extra rest needed to go far. I have him taking on Paul, Molleker, Cuevas, and Verdasco (who just beat him in Rome) before even taking on Khachanov, but I think that best-of-five suits Thiem well. He plays so physical, and he is in such great shape, that he should be able to wear down his opponents, and the huge space at the back of Philippe Chatrier should provide him ample room behind the baseline (when he plays there), which is important because he stands so far back on the return of serve, which is hard to do on smaller courts.
I thought that Karen Khachanov turned a corner in Madrid from a tough start to the season, and this carried over in Rome. He got a pretty favorable draw, with the highest seed in his 8th of the draw being del Potro, who played well in Rome, but is still just returning from injury. The seed in his 16th of the draw is Pouille, which is not a scary seed and I have losing in the first round to Bolelli, and he will play Stebe in the first round and either Barrere or Ebden in the second round. Not bad. While Khachanov won their only match at the Paris indoor Masters 1000 event last year, I think that Thiem's heavy spin to the Khachanov backhand on clay will befuddle the Russian, and with one of Khachanov's biggest weapons, his serve, being partially neutralized by the clay, Thiem will win.
You might be shocked that I don't have Federer in the quarterfinals, but given this is his first best-of-five tournament on clay in years, I think that his draw is very tough. His first round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, has had good results on clay this season. In the third round he will likely play Matteo Berrettini, who has already won a clay court tournament this season and beaten Alexander Zverev in another clay court tournament.
And by the time he reaches, Schwartzman, I think he will be fatigued from all the tennis. Schwartzman has lost 7-5 in the third (best-of-three) to Federer before, and he really found his form last week, beating Berrettini and Nishikori, and then taking Djokovic to three sets. I think he carries over this good form to Roland Garros, a tournament in which he made the quarterfinals last year, getting a set off of Nadal. His draw is tough, Fucsovics in the first round, and either Kohlschreiber or Cecchinato in the third round, but I think Diego makes it to Federer, and beats him in a tough round of 16 match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been so impressive this clay court season. He beat Rafael Nadal in Madrid, won Estoril, and beat Fognini in straight sets in a night match on Pietrangeli. His backhand, which is perceived as the weakness in his game, is so solid, and his draw sets him up pretty well. He should force his first round opponent, Maximillian Marterer into too many errors, and my projected second and third round opponents for Tsitsipas, Dellien and Carballes Baena, don't have the weapons to hurt him. His seed in the 16th of his draw, Frances Tiafoe, I have losing in the first round to Filip Krajinovic, and the top seed in his 8th of the draw, Marin Cilic, is struggling this season and is not great on clay. I have Tsitsipas beating Christian Garin in the round of 16, and while Garin is tough, he did win two clay court tournament this season and made the final of another, he is another player who doesn't have the weapons to hurt Tsitsipas. Then in the quarterfinal, I think Schwartzman after beating Federer, is going to be out of gas, and Tsitsipas should have a fairly comfortable match on route to the semifinals.
The bottom quarter of the draw is not going to super interesting, because Nadal will dominate. He's won Roland Garros 11 times, and I don't see anyone in this quarter that could beat him. His first minor test will be in the third round against David Goffin, but Goffin is not playing nearly well enough to challenge Nadal. In the fourth round, I have Rafa taking on Guido Pella, who challenged him for a set in Monte Carlo, but again, in best-of-five against Rafa on clay, you have to play out of your mind for extremely long periods of time, and Pella doesn't have the level to match Rafa for more than a set, as we saw in Monte Carlo.
I have Nadal playing Benoit Paire in the quarterfinals. Paire just won his second clay court tournament today in Lyon, and is playing so well. When his backhand, serve, and drop shot are working, he is extremely difficult to beat and I think he brings that good form to Paris. His draw sets him up well, until the quarterfinals. Copil shouldn't challenge him in the first round, and Medvedev, while he's had good success this clay court season, will be very frustrated by the changes of pace that Paire provides, just as he was frustrated by Krygios in Rome. Sousa and Ramos, my projected opponents for Paire in the third and fourth rounds, while good on clay, also will be puzzled by Paire's unconventional game, at the level it's at right now. Paire's serve is so well-placed, it's a very underrated part of his game. But, it won't be enough to trouble Nadal. Not even close.
In the semifinals, we will get an absolute battle between Djokovic and Thiem. This will be an absolute classic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-2, but it's 3-2 Djokovic on clay. They've split their two matchups at Roland Garros. I'm very 50/50 on this match, it will come down to very fine margins. Will Thiem's heavy, hard-hitting groundstrokes be able to break through against the Djokovic defense? Or will Novak's counterpunching prevail? It's hard to beat Djokovic three-out-five, and as the match wears on, Djokovic's extreme fitness will start to take over. In the tight moments, who do you trust more? Djokovic wins.
The other semifinal is much more straightforward. Yes, Nadal lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid, but that was at altitude in best-of-three, and Nadal played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play on clay. In Rome, Nadal won comfortably in straight sets. And given how Philippe Chatrier's huge clay surface allows Rafa ample room to defend against Tsitsipas' groundstrokes, the result of this one should be no surprise: Nadal wins.
In the final, it will be the second Djokovic-Nadal matchup in a row. While Djokovic leads the head-to-head 28-26, and easily won the final in Australia, in their match in Rome, Nadal won in three sets, but only gave up one game in the two sets he won. While Djokovic was tired, this should be a confidence booster for Rafa. I think that fatigue could also play a role in this match, as Thiem will push Djokovic a lot harder than Tsitsipas will push Rafa. I think that Djokovic will be a step slow in this match, and that will be all Rafa needs to win fairly comfortably.
Rafael Nadal will be your 2019 French Open champion!
