Three Storylines Emerging from Release of US Open Men's Singles Draw

 The wait is over! The US Open men's singles draw are out! While there are so many different angles that one could take looking at the draw, I think there are three points that stand out amongst the crowd. 

In this article, I will detail three storylines for tennis fans to keep in mind when reviewing the US Open men's singles draw.

1. Alexander Zverev is in Novak Djokovic's Side of the Draw

By far the biggest story going into the draw release was where No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev would fall in the draw. Would he be on No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic's side, or No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev's side?

Zverev has had the best results out of any player in men's tennis since the end of Wimbledon. The German won the Olympic gold medal, beating Djokovic in the semifinals, and then won Cincinnati, taking down  Stefanos Tsitsipas from two-breaks down in the third set of their semifinal match, and then taking down Andrey Rublev with ease in the final.

Zverev won at least 85% of his first-serve points in four of his five matches in Cincinnati and only dropped one set all tournament (to Tsitsipas). In the Olympics he also dropped a singular set, to Djokovic.

While Zverev's success in Cincinnati might have been due to Djokovic's absence, he's full of confidence with two titles since the end of Wimbledon and an 11-match winning streak. Zverev is certainly tougher to face than Tsitsipas, whose return is a major question mark right now.

The fact that Djokovic is scheduled to face Zverev in the semifinals in his quest for the Calendar Slam, instead of Zverev facing Medvedev, is a huge story for the draw. Instead, Medvedev will most likely get either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev in the semifinals. Medvedev is 6-2 against Tsitsipas and 5-1 against Rublev, with both players at a tactical disadvantage against Medvedev.

So, while Djokovic might have to fight it out in a war against red-hot Zverev in the semifinals, Medvedev would play one of two players that he's comfortable against. Yes, Medvedev lost to Rublev in the semifinals of Cincinnati, but the hand-injury certainly played a role in that loss. There's not much Rublev can do  to hurt Medvedev.

In addition, it's very possible that, if Djokovic makes it through Zverev, that he will be more fatigued than Medvedev will be due to what should be a great semifinal against the German.

Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that Zverev probably would have wanted to avoid Djokovic's half as much as Djokovic would have wanted to avoid him.

2. Djokovic's Draw is Very Smooth Until the Semifinals

While I have just ranted about Djokovic getting a tough semifinal assignment, his road getting there is quite straightforward. He starts out the tournament with a qualifier, and while we don't know which qualifier it will be yet, there are no qualifiers in the draw that can seriously challenge Djokovic.

From there, he will play either Tallon Griekspoor or Jan-Lennard Struff. Griekspoor doesn't have the rally tolerance to get close to Djokovic and has nothing to really hurt the Serb with. Struff has a huge serve and a heavy forehand, but Djokovic has won 15 of 16 sets against Struff and the German was very poor in a 2-6, 1-6 loss to Ivashka in Winston-Salem.

In the third round, Djokovic would face off against No. 27 seed David Goffin, Mackenzie McDonald, or Kei Nishikori in the third round. Goffin is completely out-of-form, and McDonald, along with Nishikori, don't do anything that can hurt Djokovic. McDonald's game is tailor-made for Djokovic to neutralize him, and there's a reason Djokovic is 17-2 against Nishikori. In backhand-to-backhand rallies (the backhand being Nishikori's strength), Djokovic will still have the upper hand. Plus, Djokovic can take advantage of the Nishikori second serve.

In Nishikori's last matchup with Djokovic in the quarterfinals of the Olympics, Djokovic won 6-0, 6-2, with Djokovic winning 82% of the points on his serve versus 43% for Nishikori.

In the round of 16, Djokovic would most likely play either Aslan Karatsev, Taylor Fritz, or Alex De Minaur. Aslan Karatsev has cooled down significantly since he beat Djokovic in Belgrade in April and made the semifinals of the Australian Open. Taylor Fritz only got close to Djokovic in the third round of the Australian Open due to Djokovic's abdominal injury. Alex De Minaur makes the most of his talent, but he won't be able to out-grind Djokovic, especially in the best-of-five format.

In the quarterfinals, Djokovic could face off against Hubert Hurkacz or Matteo Berrettini. Djokovic is 2-0 against Hurkacz, having won six of the seven sets they've played, although never on a hard court. Djokovic is 3-0 against Berrettini, having just won the Wimbledon final against him in four sets.

In that Wimbledon final, Djokovic won 79% of his first serves and held Berrettini to 38% second serves won. Berrettini faced 15 break points in that match and was broken six times.

Hurkacz and Berrettini might be able to serve their way into close sets, but Djokovic just has better precision and rally tolerance than both of them. In addition, for Berrettini specifically, Djokovic can target his backhand, especially in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

Look for Djokovic to make the semifinals (and most likely play Zverev) without too many issues.

3. Can Stefanos Tsitsipas Survive Andy Murray?

I feel stupid even writing this, but on social media, this matchup between No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and former US Open champion Andy Murray is gaining a lot of traction.

The truth is: there won't need to much surviving here, as Tsitsipas should trounce Murray and easily advance to the second round.

While Tsitsipas and Murray have never played each other before, does anything, in the best-of-five format, does anyone expect someone with Murray's injury history to be too competitive against a young rising star with the pedigree of Tsitsipas.

In Winston-Salem this past week, Murray won less than 50% of his second-serve points in both of his matches and, against Frances Tiafoe in the second round, he only put 47% of his first serves in play.

For Murray to even be competitive with Tsitsipas, he needs to be making a high percentage of his first serves and needs to be very aggressive with his second serves so that Tsitsipas can't tee off.

With Tsitsipas struggling against big servers, playing someone who doesn't serve huge like Murray seems to be a dream first round opponent.

And even if he does that, at this stage in Murray's career, he doesn't possess the game to force a powerful player like Tsitsipas off of the baseline and make him uncomfortable.

Expect Tsitsipas to beat Murray with ease, losing one set at the absolute most.

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So, what do you think about the storylines mentioned here? Let me know what you think in the comments!

Enjoy the US Open, folks!

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: An All-American Showdown at Wimbledon

The Wimbledon draws have come out and they're full of exciting matchups that will have tennis fans glued to the action. However, the first-round matchup that excited me the most has to be a battle of Americans: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima.

Seed vs qualifier. One of the players who used to be considered the future of American tennis vs someone who is currently seen as part of the future of American tennis. A battle of players who can impose themselves from the baseline and hit their spots on-serve.

How will this matchup play out? Who will come out on top? Read on for my thoughts!

No. 31 seed Taylor Fritz is certainly grateful that this match is happening at all. The 23 year-old American suffered a massive injury during Roland Garros, tearing his meniscus during his second round Roland Garros match against Dominik Koepfer. The injury was so severe that he had to have a wheelchair take him off the court. Fritz even needed surgery, but somehow has found the strength and willpower to find a way to get ready for the meeting.

Fritz's health is certainly no guarantee. But, if he's in the draw, I'm going to assume he's healthy enough to at least compete at a good level. And if that's the case, then he certainly will present a massive challenge to Nakashima.

Fritz has won 1 ATP Tour title in his career and he lifted that winner's trophy on the grass of Eastbourne. In 2019, Fritz beat fellow American Sam Querrey in the final 6-3, 6-4.

After the match, Fritz told the ATP, "It's so amazing. I almost can't even believe it. I'm still trying to take it in...I really hope that I can continue on and progress the way Andy (Roddick) did and follow in his footsteps."

Fritz clearly saw the last Eastbourne champion from the United States, Andy Roddick, as a role model for his grass-court career.

In that Eastbourne event, Fritz served really well. He won at least 75% of his first-serve points in all 5 matches he played in the event. From the quarterfinals onwards, Fritz was only broken once. In the final against Querrey, Fritz won 89% of his first-serve points, facing only 1 break point, and he didn't get broken in that final.

However, at Wimbledon, Fritz has only made the 2nd round a couple times in his 4 appearances in the main draw. So, why has this been the case?

On the positive side, as mentioned before, Fritz's first serve is a huge weapon on faster surfaces, and is an area of his game where he's rapidly improved. Fritz's groundstrokes also are flatter and can really cut through the court on grass.

On the other hand, at times, it feels like the Fritz's backswings are little too far back for the quicker grass surface and he doesn't have an effective, low-skidding backhand slice that can do so much damage on the grass. In addition, Fritz isn't totally comfortable at the net.

So, there are aspects of Fritz's game that work supremely well on the grass, while there are other aspects that cause some concern. I guess that partially explains why, at times when he's able to play to his strengths on grass he can be dominant, while at other times, his weaknesses get exposed.

Perhaps some more time on grass last season and in the lead-up to Wimbledon this season would have been good for Fritz to continue to develop his grass-court game and try to continue to live up to the standard that Andy Roddick has set for American men, but a global pandemic and a fluke injury blew those chances.

On the other side of the net will be qualifier Brandon Nakashima. The 19 year-old American hadn't played a professional match on grass, having only competed in the juniors on grass.

And, in the Challengers leading up to Wimbledon qualifying, Nakashima showed some growing pains. Nakashima went 1-2 in the Challengers preceding Wimbledon qualifying, beat Mario Vilella Martinez and losing to Evgeny Donskoy and Thomas Fabbiano.

While Donskoy and Fabbiano are not the easiest matchups on grass, given the progression that Nakashima has shown, it was a bit disappointing that he lost those matches.

However, Nakashima seemed to put it all together during his time at qualifying in Roehampton.

The American doesn't have the biggest serve, but he hits his spots very well. He won 75% of his first-serve points in all three of his qualifying wins over Aleksander Vukic, Viktor Troicki, and Ernests Gulbis.

Nakashima also took advantage of second-serve returns. In every match Nakashima played in Roehampton, his opponents won 35% or fewer of his second-serve returns and broke 15 times over the course of the tournament.

In addition to his solid serving and returning, there are other aspects of Nakashima's game that work well on grass. Nakashima's groundstrokes are very flat and he hits his targets. Finally, Nakashima has really made it a point to improve his net-game, an aspect of tennis that is particularly important on grass. Nakashima attacks the net with authority and hits razor-sharp volleys.

Nakashima, however, doesn't have the power that would let him hit opponents off the court at times his forehand can get a little bit shaky, and like Fritz, his backhand slice could also use some work.

But, ultimately, Nakashima's qualifying campaign was a massive achievement. It was the first time in his career that he had qualified for a Major and Nakashima was clearly happy with his level of play.

Having had success at Roehampton as a junior, Nakashima explained to the ATP during his qualifying campaign, "It definitely feels pretty good coming back here. I feel comfortable with the courts..."

And, given how he performed, his comfort on the grass was very evident.

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So, how will this matchup play out?

They've never played in a non-exhibition event, although Fritz leads 2-1 in exhibitions. However, all 3 of those matches were on hard courts and there's really not much to take away from them.

Fritz will have the power advantage from the baseline, but Nakashima is more comfortable at the net and will look to impose himself on Fritz when he can.

In terms of the serve, Fritz's first serve has evolved into one of the best in the game. He won't give Nakashima many opportunities on return and Nakashima will have to be clutch in converting the opportunities given to him.

Fritz's health is certainly the biggest question mark. Will he be ready physically for best-of-five? Will he have enough time on the practice courts to hone his game? How will he respond to not playing a grass-court match in 2 years?

Given Fritz's health concerns and lack of matchplay, it's hard to expect too much from him in this one. And an in-form Nakashima who has already played 6 matches on the grass this season.

For Nakashima, he's inexperienced at the Grand Slam level. He's only played in one Major before and never outside of the United States.

Ultimately, I trust Nakashima to pull through in this match. His improved net game and aggressive attitude will come through for him here and will be the steadier player from the baseline, as a rusty Fritz will spray unforced errors.

It won't be entirely straightforward, but expect Brandon Nakashima to win in 4 sets and set up a 2nd round showdown with fellow American Steve Johnson or Dennis Novak!

Carlos Alcaraz vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles: Battle of the Spanish Qualifiers

 As I look through the men's draw of the 2021 French Open, there's plenty of good matchups in the first round. Whether it be No. 13 seed David Goffin vs Lorenzo Musetti, Marin Cilic vs Arthur Rinderknech, or Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos, there are plenty of good first round matchups to choose from.

But, it's a battle of qualifiers that could be the most exciting match of the first round in the men's draw. A match between Spaniards, an 18 year-old rising star and a 24 year-old experiencing his moment-in-the-sun. 

Yes, I'm talking about Carlos Alcaraz vs Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

Carlos Alcaraz is the 18 year-old rising star. He is newly into the top 100, entering that elite section of the rankings after beating Facundo Bagnis in the final of the of the clay-court Oeiras 3 Challenger to leap up to World No. 94 in the ATP rankings.

The win in Oeiras was the 3rd Challenger title for Alcaraz since the coronavirus hiatus and the 4th Challenger final during that time span. I will discuss that final later on, as he happened to play Zapata Miralles in that match.

Alcaraz went into French Open qualifying with the weight of last year's disappointment on his shoulders. Last year, Alcaraz lost in 3 sets to Aleksander Vukic in the first round of qualifying. He was a set up in the match, but after losing a tight second-set tiebreak, couldn't regain his momentum in the third.

But, a tough loss like that in a big moment can be the best thing to happen to a young player. It allows that player the chance to reflect and evaluate short-comings in his or her game and the opportunity to think more about how to improve one's mindset on the tennis court.

Alcaraz came into this year's Roland Garros qualifying, perhaps the last time he will have to play a Grand Slam qualifying match in his career, looking like a man on a mission.

The Spaniard only lost 11 games over the course of his 3 qualifying matches. He won over 70% of his first serves in all of his qualifying matches and in both of his last 2 matches in qualifying had a first serve percentage over 70%.

In all 3 of Alcaraz's qualifying matches he held his opponents to under 55% first serves won. And while Lukas Lacko in the opening round of qualifying was an easier opponent, Alcaraz easily disposed of good clay court Challenger players in Andrea Pellegrino and Alejandro Tabilo during his next two matches.

After qualifying, Alcaraz was overjoyed, telling the ATP, "I'm really, really happy. It's a great feeling to play here in my first main draw here in Roland Garros. Everyone is is really hungry to qualify to the main draw, so for me it's a great feeling."

Alcaraz later explained to the ATP that, "I got comfortable last week in Portugal winning the Challenger 125, then winning these three matches in qualifying."

And if Alcaraz can continue to combine his relaxed, confident demeanor with his high-quality tennis, then the rest of the men's draw needs to take notice.

But, he's not the only Spaniard to qualify, and one of the other Spanish qualifiers happened to be drawn as his first round opponent: Bernabe Zapata Miralles.

Zapata Miralles is also a recent Challenger winner. This Spaniard won the Heilbronn Challenger over another good clay-court player in Daniel Galan. Zapata Miralles only dropped 1 set all tournament and beat Galan in straight sets to lift the trophy.

The title in Heilbronn gave Zapata a career-high ranking of World No. 126 and he currently sits close to that mark at World No. 128.

In French Open qualifying, Zapata Miralles' road wasn't quite as straight-forward as Alcaraz's. Zapata Miralles dropped his first set of the qualifying tournament to Kyrian Jacquet and was down a break point late in the third set.

There was massive pressure in this match for Zapata Miralles facing a wild card outside of the top 450 in the world as a seeded qualifying player still trying to earn his first ever qualifying victory.

But, Zapata Miralles was able to pull out that match 6-4 in the third set and didn't look back. Zapata Miralles lost 9 games in the final two qualifying rounds against Dmitry Popko and Marc Polmans, dishing out 2 bagels in the process.

Zapata Miralles' return was on-point all week. After a pretty good showing on-return against Jacquet, with the Frenchman only winning 60% of his first serve points and 51% of his second serve points, Zapata Miralles turned up the heat further in his ensuing qualifying matches.

Zapata Miralles was able to hold Popko 46% first serves won and 37% second serves won, breaking him 6 times. And against Polmans, the Spaniard held him to 36% first serves won and 38% second serves won, breaking the Aussie 7 times.

So, as both players come into this match hot, how will it play out?

The two have played two matches in the past, but one was an exhibition matches during the coronavirus hiatus, so despite Alcaraz winning in straight sets, it doesn't mean much to me.

Their only "official" matches was the only Challenger final where Alcaraz didn't emerge victorious.

It was the final of the Cordenons Challenger on the red Italian clay. Both players didn't have an easy road to the final, with Zapata Miralles having to down top-seed Yannick Hanfmann in the first round and other good clay courters such as Andrea Collarini and Alejandro Tabilo, while Alcaraz moved past players like Benjamin Bonzi and No. 4 seed Facundo Bagnis.

Zapata Miralles ended up winning the match 6-2, 4-6, 6-2. He was the steadier player on the day and returned serve well, with Alcaraz winning less than 55% of his first serve points and under 50% of his second serve points.

Of course, Alcaraz's serve has improved since that match and he's able to better control his groundstrokes, but at the very least, it's a good reminder that despite Alcaraz getting a fellow (and much more unheralded) qualifier as his first match in the main draw, doesn't mean it will be an easy match.

As I've stated earlier, Zapata Miralles' return of serve is a key part of his game. His rally tolerance is top-notch and he's able to get good depth and placement on his shots, while showing a good level of aggression when the opportunity presents itself.

Zapata Miralles' forehand has a funky motion, but he makes it work for his game. He's solid on both wings and his serve does a pretty good job setting himself up from the baseline.

As mentioned before, Alcaraz's serve has really improved since that Cordenons final against Zapata Miralles. He's rolling his serves in much less than he used to and is able to get more power on that shot. Alcaraz's forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court, with the ball absolutely exploding off of his racquet from this wing.

Alcaraz's movement around the court is excellent and, if he can racquet on the ball, there's a chance he's an open alley in the court to smack a winner. Both players, but especially Alcaraz, can turn defense-into-offense very quickly.

Alcaraz is a big more erratic than Zapata Miralles, but that's because he goes bigger on his shots than his fellow Spaniard. 

It will be interesting to see how his rally tolerance holds up in the main draw of the Grand Slam on his best surface when he will be the favorite to advance, despite Zapata Miralles winning their only other official match. And don't doubt Zapata Miralles on clay either. While Alcaraz has a 75% winning percentage on clay over the course of his young career, Zapata Miralles isn't a slouch on clay either, with a career winning percentage on clay of 64%.

And, that's the thing, the pressure will be firmly on Alcaraz's shoulders, with Zapata Miralles able to swing freely knowing that he's "expected" to lose. But, with both he and Alcaraz knowing that he can win the match.

Best-of-5 should Alcaraz in the sense that if he has short spurts where his hard-hitting shots from the baseline are spraying around the court, he has the time to steady himself. 

But, Zapata Miralles didn't qualify and make the third round of Barcelona (in addition to the Heilbronn Challenger) for no reason. He has the game to make life very tough on the 18 year old.

So, what's my "official" prediction?

I predict that this will be a very close match, but that Carlos Alcaraz gets the better of Bernabe Zapata Miralles in a 5-set match with lots of twists and turns. Ultimately, with the way Alcaraz is hitting the forehand right now, it would be very hard to expect Zapata Miralles to get the better of Alcaraz again.

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What do you all think of this exciting matchup? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter @TennisBlogger1!

Men's Australian Open Draw Thoughts

It's certainly been a journey to get to this point. After all of the drama that happened because of the strict quarantine measures due to the coronavirus pandemic, it's certainly a relief to be back to the tennis and not hearing complaints, and then people complaining about the complaints and others defending the complaints. It's just tiresome.

But, thankfully, the Australian Open is almost here! The draw is out and I will be giving my thoughts on what to expect and some predictions for the men's draw. 

Like usual, I will probably be looking ridiculous a few days into the event, but let's try this again!

Note: the full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If: 

1. Andrey Rublev and Daniil Medvedev Face Off in Another Hard Court Slam QF

Of course, the matchup with No. 4 seed Daniil Medvedev is not a favorable one for Rublev, but in terms of who has to face before a potential meeting with his countryman in the quarterfinals, I like Rublev's chances. His first round match against Yannik Hanfmann shouldn't present many problems. Hanfmann likes clay courts and doesn't present the power nor the rally tolerance on a hard court to trouble Rublev.

In the second round, I have Rublev taking on Thiago Monteiro (Andrej Martin is the other potential opponent). Whether it be Monteiro or Martin, like Hanfmann, they both are much better on clay than hard courts. Monteiro's backhand can really be exploited on hard and Martin doesn't have the power from the baseline to contend with Rublev. If Rublev were to play Martin, then Martin would be doing a lot of retrieving/forced errors.

In the third round, I have Rublev taking on Lorenzo Sonego. Sonego has a nice serve and a heavy forehand, but I don't think he has as dynamic of a game nor has the rally tolerance to hang with Rublev from the baseline. Sam Querrey and Feliciano Lopez are also potential opponents, but neither have been great so far in Australia this season and leak errors from the baseline.

A round of 16 matchup with No. 12 seed Roberto Bautista Agut would present a huge challenge for the Russian. Their head to head is tied 2-2, but Rublev has won the past two matches. The difference between Rublev now and when he was losing to the Spaniard years ago is immense. Rublev hits the ball harder, with more accuracy, and has helped shore up his second serve. I would favor Rublev against Bautista Agut in that match. I would also favor Rublev if he is playing someone like Casper Ruud or Jan-Lennard Struff.

For Medvedev, his pathway is pretty straightforward. A net-minded Vasek Pospisil in the first round won't be easy. But, Medvedev's passing shots are superb and he will be able to grind Pospisil down from the baseline. Pospisil's fitness is also often an issue, and this could be a factor after so much time off and in the Aussie heat.

In the second round, Medvedev would either play Roberto Carballes Baena or Attila Balazs. Both players prefer clay, don't have a ton of power, and Balazs specifically, retired from his warmup match at the Great Ocean Road Open against Carlos Alcaraz very early on. Medvedev should be able to control the baseline and easily get past either Carballes Baena or Balazs.

The third round should present no issues for Medvedev either. With No. 28 seed Filip Krajinovic withdrawing from his ATP Cup match, his health is certainly in question. Robin Haase has played solid baseline tennis, but not at the level of Medvedev. Pablo Andujar didn't play great against Pablo Cuevas in his first round match at the Great Ocean Road Open and Halys is so inconsistent. Whoever is in that third round match should be smooth-sailing for the Russian.

A fourth round match with No. 22 seed Borna Coric or No. 13 seed David Goffin would await Medvedev. As I will explain later, I don't really see Goffin as much of a threat. In terms of Coric, I know that the Croatian leads the head to head and that they've split matchups at majors, but at this stage, Medvedev should be too good over the course of best-of-five. I don't see how the Croatian can consistently break down Medvedev and hit through him from the baseline at this point. And Coric doesn't have a huge serve to rely on either. A matchup between the two, I believe, would look more like the most recent 6-3, 6-1 win for Medvedev in St. Petersburg 2019.

So, I fully expect a showdown between Rublev and Medvedev in the quarterfinals. Whether or not Rublev can get over the hump against his compatriot remains to be seen (but I will give my prediction later).

2. Matteo Berrettini Makes Another Grand Slam Semifinal

Matteo Berrettini last made the semifinals of a Major at the 2019 US Open, where he lost to Rafael Nadal in straight sets. Given the form we've seen from the Italian at the ATP Cup, this is another great shot for him to make another Grand Slam semi.

Berrettini has been absolutely crushing the ball during the ATP Cup and is also defending at an elite level. He's beaten Dominic Thiem and Gael Monfils both in straight sets. In the match against Monfils, the Frenchman actually was counterpunching really well, but Berrettini always had an answer.

The No. 9 seed Berrettini starts with big-serving Kevin Anderson in the first round. Anderson is a dangerous opponent, but I think that Berrettini's baseline game is much better than Anderson's at this point in the South African's career and Berrettini should be able to get enough serves back to come through that match.

In the second round, Berrettini would play one of two qualifiers, Tomas Machac or Mario Vilella Martinez. The rising star Machac would probably be the bigger test on a hard court, but Berrettini's huge serve, depth of shot, and change-of-pace with the backhand slice will be huge for him in this potential matchup.

A potential third round match against No. 19 seed Karen Khachanov would await. Khachanov is certainly playing well this week during the Great Ocean Road Open, but the Russian played over four hours of tennis yesterday and has another match to play today, so he might be a bit overcooked at this point, if he can even reach the third round.

In addition, Berrettini leads the head to head for a reason. His return of serve is better than Khachanov's and he plays with variety and touch at a bit of a higher level compared to Khachanov.

A fourth round matchup with No. 5 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas would potentially be next in the round of 16. Given the strength of both the Tsitsipas and Berrettini first serves, this would be a very close match. I just trust the Berrettini backhand to hold up a little better than the Tsitsipas backhand and I think that Berrettini's forehand looks as good as I've ever seen it and he might have the edge there too if this match were to come to fruition.

A quarterfinal showdown against No. 2 seed Rafael Nadal would possibly be the last person standing between Berrettini and the semifinals. Nadal had beaten Berrettini in the semifinals of the US Open in 2019, but this is a completely different circumstance. Nadal is coming into this event undercooked, having not played in the Spain ATP Cup tie against Australia nor Greece.

Especially off of clay at this point in Nadal's career, I'm not convinced he can snap into form on a hard and beat a top 10 totally in-form player like Berrettini.

So, while the road is certainly tough, my expectations for Matteo Berrettini during the Australian Open are high.

3. David Goffin Gets Upset in the First Round

I like No. 13 seed David Goffin a lot and enjoy his game when it's on  but I have Goffin losing in the first round to Alexei Popyrin. 

Popyrin looked good during the Murray River Open warmup tournament. He beat a rising Borna Gojo in a third set tiebreak in the first round. Then, Popyrin had another impressive victory, this time in straight sets, over Tommy Paul in the second round. Popyrin battled hard against Grigor Dimitrov in the round of 16, losing in a three-set match, but showing that he wouldn't be a push over at the Australian Open.

On the other hand, Goffin was quite poor during his match against Carlos Alcaraz during the Great Ocean Road Open warmup. He lot 6-3, 6-3 and only won 56% of the points on his first serve and 25% of his second serve points. Of course, Alcaraz is a rising star in the sport, but I expected more from Goffin in that match.

Goffin has really struggled since the clay court swing last season. Starting with his loss against Shapovalov at the US Open (the match immediately preceding Rome for the Belgian), he lost five matches in a row to finish 2020. He only won one set in those five matches. In not one of those matches was his first serve points won over 70% or his second serve points won over 50%.

Goffin did win a few matches in Antalya to start the season, but given how he played against Alcaraz, it's hard to judge whether his form is back and the Alcaraz match was the outlier, or if he just happened to get a small hot streak in Antalya and the matches there were the outliers.

I have a feeling, with the Aussie crowd behind him, Alexei Popyrin pulls the upset.

4. Daniil Medvedev Wins His First Major

Daniil Medvedev knows what it feels like to be close to a Major title. At the 2019 US Open, he was one set away from his first Grand Slam before falling to Rafael Nadal in a fifth set. He threatened to win the US Open last season, but hasn't broken through to win a Major. Yet.

Medvedev is coming into the Australian Open in amazing form. As of now (February 5th), he's won his last 12 matches in a row and beaten top players such as Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, Diego Schwartzman twice, and Alexander Zverev twice (with a chance to make it three times tonight).

I believe this is Medvedev's time in the sun. I've broken down his draw up to the quarterfinals in a prior section, so no need to repeat that. Against Rublev in the quarterfinals, he's found success in the past because Rublev doesn't quite have the weapons to hit through Medvedev, so Medvedev is able to neutralize the Rublev baseline game. Medvedev is also a top returner in the World and can take advantage of Rublev's second serve (which is improved, but not quite enough to completely neutralize the Medvedev return).

Rublev actually did pretty well at the US Open last season on his second serve, winning 61% of second serve points. This is a huge improvement over their previous two meetings, where Rublev won 30% of his second serve points in St. Petersburg and 29% in Cincinnati. Still, it wasn't enough to come close to beating Medvedev. 

To be honest, it was pretty incredible that Rublev won 80% of his first serve points in that US Open match and still couldn't muster up a set. Goes to show the level that Medvedev was playing at on his serve.

Anyways, Medvedev would potentially play Matteo Berrettini or Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. I see Medvedev beating either opponent. I've already talked about how Nadal is undercooked for the Australian Open. Medvedev just beat Nadal at the ATP Finals, and at this stage in both of their careers (and this is no knock on Nadal at all), I think that Medvedev is a better hard courter at this stage in both of their careers.

Against Berrettini, I would expect the Italian to keep it close with his big serve and heavy forehand, but ultimately, I trust Medvedev's rally tolerance over Berrettini's. I think that Medvedev's ability to get huge serves back into uncomfortable positions for the server would also be huge in this match.

In the final, I have Medvedev playing No. 1 seed, and top player in the World, Novak Djokovic. Medvedev at the ATP Finals comfortably beat Djokovic. Of course, playing Djokovic in a best-of-five scenario is a totally different ball game.

This would be a battle for the ages, with both players in-form and on their best surface. Both players have great placement on the serve, have incredible speed and anticipation around the court, and are remarkable in their abilities to place the ball exactly where they want to. It's really hard to pick a winner.

But, Medvedev is the younger player and I think has a little more patience from the baseline at this stage in his career. 

So, I am going to take a chance, and it's always taking a chance going against Djokovic at the Australian Open, and picking Daniil Medvedev to win the event.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner

I was actually disappointed when I saw that these two had to play each in the first round because, for as good as the match will be, it means both guys can't go far in this tournament. Both Shapovalov and Sinner are such talented young players (although Shapovalov at 21 isn't so young anymore by tennis standards, as ridiculous as that is to say).

I don't take anything negative away from Shapovalov's play at the ATP Cup. Yes, he's lost six matches in a row overall and both matches at the ATP Cup, but he has played well in Melbourne so far, despite the losses.

Shapovalov lost a tough straight sets match to Novak Djokovic in his first ATP Cup match. Shapovalov won 80% of his first serve points, which is incredibly high given he was playing, arguably, the best returner in tennis history. However, Shapovalov's return of serve struggled, only winning 11/63 return points overall in the match. 

Shapovalov then lost in a third set tiebreak to Alexander Zverev in his second ATP Cup match. It was another good performance against a top player in which the Canadian fell a little short, but it wasn't anything to be overly concerned about. This wasn't like when Shapovalov lost to Radu Albot in Sofia to end his 2020 season.

It is a little worrisome that Shapovalov had medical timeouts in both his match against Djokovic and Zverev, but with the way he played in both matches, again, it's not a big worry. for me.

Jannik Sinner finished 2020 strong with his maiden ATP Tour title in Sofia over Vasek Pospisil and has started 2021 strong, currently residing in the semifinals of the Great Ocean Road Open.

Sinner's backhand is world-class and getting better-and-better seemingly with match. He has a big serve that gains control of points and then he can finish opponents off with his backhand.

Contrary to Shapovalov, Sinner has won eight ATP Tour matches in a row (currently) and beaten a couple good baseliners this week in Aljaz Bedene and Miomir Kecmanovic.

The popcorn aspect of this matchup is Shapovalov's huge lefty forehand versus Sinner's incredible backhand in the cross-court exchanges. However, they should split those type of points and it will come down to other factors who wins the match.

I trust Shapovalov's backhand a little more than Sinner's forehand and think that Shapovalov has the slightly better serve and net game.

The Canadian has more big-match experience and best-of-five experience and I really do think that makes a difference here.

So, contrary to recent form, I will say Shapovalov wins in five sets.

Honorable Mention

Botic Van de Zandschulp vs Carlos Alcaraz

I wanted to quickly mention this match because it's flying under the radar a bit, but should be a top-notch match. Botic Van de Zandschulp is playing the tennis of his career, qualifying for the Australian Open and making the quarterfinals of the Great Ocean Road Open. He plays very aggressive tennis and is going to be a tough player to break down.

Carlos Alcaraz is a 17 year-old phenom. I didn't think he would have this much success on hard courts at this level so fast, but he has. Alcaraz a big forehand and a good serve and also qualified for the Australian Open. At the Great Ocean Road Open, he had a big win over David Goffin in the second round before falling to Thiago Monteiro in the round of 16.

These two have never played before. The only reason I'm going with Van de Zandschulp in five sets is because I just trust his hard court game a little bit more than Alcaraz's at this point in the Spaniard's career.

"Walking Byes"

1. Laslo Djere

 Even if Laslo Djere was not playing Rafael Nadal in the first round, he would still be a walking bye. Djere has lost seven of his last eight matchups on hard courts (excluding exhibitions) and didn't put up too much resistance against Kamil Majchrzak in the first round of the Great Ocean Road Open.

Djere hasn't won consecutive matches on a hard court (again, excluding exhibition matches) since Basel qualifying in 2018!

That's the definition of a walking bye to me.

2. Yen-Hsun Lu

Yen-Hsun Lu is in the main draw via a Protected Ranking. Lu has only played five events since 2017 and lost in the first round of the Great Ocean Road Open to Aleksander Vukic.

Surprisingly, Lu was able to grab nine games in that match, but that doesn't dissuade me in putting him on this list. With such little recent match experience and in the best-of-five format, I see no way Lu makes his match against Reilly Opelka competitive. If Vukic was winning 75% of his first serve points against Lu (not that Vukic is a weak server), imagine what the Opelka first serve will do. There is very little chance that Lu will be able to get into Opelka service games.

Lu is a shell of his former self, who got as high as World No. 33, and I believe that he is a walking bye here.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Zverev in 4

Thiem over Shapovalov in 4

Medvedev over Rublev in 3

Berrettini over Nadal in 5

Semifinals

Djokovic over Thiem in 4

Medvedev over Berrettini in 4

Final

Medvedev over Djokovic in 5