Fritz got his name into the mainstream tennis media by having an amazing run in the fall, US Challenger hard court season. He won two Challenger tournaments in a row, in Sacramento and Fairfield before making the Final of a Challenger in Champaign later in the season, coming one set from the title. What made his titles most impressive was the manner in which he won them. He only dropped two sets in Sacramento, to Dustin Brown and Jared Donaldson, neither a player to disregard, before winning the championship in Fairfield without dropping a set. In fact, in Fairfield, he never lost more than four games! That's very impressive for someone who turned 18 towards the end of October.
Tiafoe's resume this year has been less impressive, but he has shown a greater variety in his game, with successes coming on both hard courts and clay courts. Tiafoe burst onto the scene during the US Challenger clay court season, where he reached the Quarterfinals or better in all three tournaments he played, including reaching the Final in Tallahassee. He was a few holds away from winning that title against Facundo Arguello, a tough cookie on clay. But, despite winning his first ATP Tour match in Winston-Salem, his results were quite disappointing for the rest of the summer, but with consistent hard work, he was able to turn his results around during the fall, US Challenger hard court season, making the Semifinals in Fairfield, before going on to make the Finals of the indoor event in Knoxville (and coming a set away from winning the title). It seems like just a matter of time before the 17 year old wins a Challenger title.
So, while that's a glance at the past, I am more interested in the future for these two young Americans. Will they continue to rise in the rankings, or will the good results slow as players continue to figure out how to beat these two players?
I would caution against setting expectations too high for either player. While both players had very impressive 2015s, as Tiafoe started to learn over the summer, it isn't easy to sustain those results over a prolonged period of time. Players do, in fact, figure out players' games and form new strategies to win, so while an initial run of good results is a good sign, keeping those results, or getting those results back during setbacks, over a long period of time is vital to prolonging a successful tennis career.
This is why I actually think Tiafoe is in a better spot than Fritz, despite not having the Challenger titles that he has (although Tiafoe did win an ATP Futures Tour title in 2015). You have to remember that, just a few months ago, Taylor was ranked hundreds of spots lower than he is now. I suspect that during the beginning portions of 2016, Taylor will find that a lot of the challenger players he has battled against at the tail end of 2015 will have adapted their games to bring a different challenge to Fritz than he has previously dealt with, and might not be prepared for. And Fritz will find, as Tiafoe has during 2015, that forays onto the main tour are a completely different animal than on the challenger tour. How Fritz deals with this in 2016 will determine the trajectory of his career.
Tiafoe has already dealt with the initial setbacks. After that run on the US clay courts, Tiafoe learned that life wouldn't always be that easy. He lost four of his next five matches, then he couldn't make it out of qualifying for a Challenger, and proceeded to struggle for the rest of the summer clay court and hard court season until Fairfield (sans Winston-Salem). Frances was finding it hard to even win matches on the Challenger circuit. But, Tiafoe didn't let the stream of losses define his season. Starting in Fairfield, he started finding his game. His serve was on point, his groundstrokes were finally finding the corners, and he finally seemed to have matured a bit, as shown by his apology to Eric Quigley following a series of outbursts. That was a great step for him and bodes well for his reputation on tour.
This is not to say that I think Frances will be top 50 next year and Taylor will fall out of the top 300. In fact, I think that Fritz will handle the challenges that will be presented perfectly fine. I think Top 100 is very achievable for both he and Tiafoe, to be honest. And this isn't to say that the bumps in Tiafoe's career are over, as there will be many more hurdles that Frances has to navigate. I am merely saying that I think that Tiafoe is further down the road to being a professional tennis player than Fritz, despite being younger and not having a Challenger title to his name.
However, for both players, 2016 will be a telling year.
