Since we have entered the WTA and ATP off-season, with the exception of the ITF Women's Tour and ITF Future's tournaments, I thought this would be a good time to look to next season for my predictions of which men and women will win the four majors. Of course, this is completely speculative (especially because the players I have playing in the Final could be on the same side of the draw), and I will probably look foolish later, but here are my picks to win the majors next season.
Australian Open
Women's Final: Sloane Stephens defeats Aryna Sabalenka in three sets
There are so many players I feel that have a shot at the title. However, I was very impressed with what I saw from Sloane Stephens last year, for the most part, and feel like she, along with Serena, were the best players last year without a major. Sloane's game adapts very well to hard courts, and bigger hitters will have a hard time hitting through her and will be frustrated in the heat of Australia. Aryna Sabalenka has made huge strides in 2018, and given her performance to end the year, seems primed to have a spectacular 2018. At number 13 in the rankings, expect this Final appearance to push her into the Top 10. However, I think Stephens has a little too much defense for Sabalenka, and Sloane will win in three sets.
Men's Final: Novak Djokovic defeats Marin Cilic in four sets
Djokovic was so good to end the season. After his tight loss to Cecchinato at the French Open, Novak barely lost for the rest of the season. He had one of the wins of the season over Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon, which proved to the rest of the world that he is back, and he beat Kevin Anderson in the Final. His US Open victory was thoroughly dominant too, barely being threatened and getting another major. Djokovic beat Federer a couple times too, including the Paris Masters Semifinals in another fantastic. I expect Djokovic to use the momentum of 2018 to get him an Australian Open victory, where he has won the tournament six times and is ultra-comfortable at the tournament. In regards to Cilic, I think his Davis Cup Final wins will help alleviate the mental block that seemed to haunt him for much of 2018 when he was winning in a match. Marin will also have confidence from being a set away from the title this year, but Djokovic will force Cilic into too many errors, and Novak will win the title.
French Open
Women's Final: Simona Halep defeats Garbine Muguruza in three sets
For me, Halep is the clear favorite to win the French Open. Her pedigree on clay is extremely good, and she is able to defend very well, and put her opponents in uncomfortable positions on the court. She has made the Final twice, coming within a set of the title against Sharapova and Ostapenko, and last year she finally broke through for the win against Sloane Stephens. I know that Darren Cahill is not coaching Simona next season, but I still expect Halep to have a great season and to win the French Open. As I was trying to decide who to have Halep beat in the Final, I eventually decided upon Garbine Muguruza. For me, she showed some signs of her true level towards the end of the season, despite a mostly rough 2018, and she still is the 2015 champion at Roland Garros. Her ability to hit through the court is superb, and I expect her to face Halep in the Final, where Simona's endurance and ability to make Garbine play a lot of extra balls will be the difference.
Men's Final: Rafael Nadal defeats Dominic Thiem in four sets
I know this is not an exciting prediction, given that almost the exact same result happened last year, but I have to call it as I see it. Nadal is an absolutely incredible player on clay, having won the French Open 11 times, and it is extremely difficult for players to take a set off of him on clay, let alone beat him. Nadal, essentially, plays all aspects of tennis at a very high level on clay. However, he is getting older, and injuries are concerning for him, and because I also think Thiem is going to take a step forward next year by not hitting as many unforced errors as in the past, I believe that Thiem will take a set off of Rafa at the French Open last year. But Nadal's amazing defense, along with his ability to hit winners from ridiculous places around the court, are still going to be too strong for Dominic to handle.
Wimbledon
Women's Final: Serena Williams defeats Naomi Osaka in two sets
I think that Serena would have won Wimbledon last year, but her ground game was not at the level that her serve was at. Serena has a spectacular serve, and when he groundstrokes are firing, then it is nearly impossible to beat her. Serena plays great at Wimbledon, winning the title seven times. This year, unlike against Kerber last year, I think that Serena's groundstrokes won't be rusty and her groundstrokes will match her serve in its effectiveness. Osaka had an amazing 2018, winning Indian Wells and the US Open, but when Serena is serving well and hitting her groundstrokes cleanly on grass, she can take the racquet out of Osaka's hands. Osaka will be overpowered by Serena on the grass, and I have feeling Serena will be extra-motivated to beat Osaka given that she lost to her twice last year.
Men's Final: Roger Federer defeats Novak Djokovic in five sets
I think that Federer has one more major in him, and I think it will come this year at Wimbledon. Federer won the Australian Open last year, but struggled, relatively, throughout much of the season, starting with his loss to Juan Martin del Potro in the Final at Indian Wells. Federer, I believe, will structure his season around winning Wimbledon, and will serve well throughout the Final. I think that he will come to the net a lot, pressuring Djokovic to make extremely difficult passing shots, and so he isn't worn down by Djokovic. Djokovic, as he showed once again last year, and through his four Wimbledon titles total, is extremely good on grass. But, in a match that I think will be very tight, the crowd support and Federer's will to extend his major lead is going to will him to a very close win over Djokovic.
US Open
Women's Final: Serena Williams defeats Aryna Sabalenka in three sets
Serena, as I have talked about before, is an incredible player. She has shown very often that her combination of power and accuracy is extremely hard to beat. The crowd support at the US Open is also very helpful for Serena. Serena does very well at the US Open, winning the title six times. As I mentioned previously, I am very high on Sabalenka. She hits the ball extremely hard, but has great margin on her shots too. However, I think that Serena has a little more power on her groundstrokes than Sabalenka and serves better, so she should win a tight title in three sets.
Men's Final: Karen Khachanov defeats Kevin Anderson in four sets
I have a feeling that the men's singles bracket at the US Open will provide a lot of surprises. Khachanov was so impressive in winning the Paris Masters event. His defeat of Djokovic in the Final showed that he can hit through amazing defending accurately and he showed very little signs of the moment being too big for him. Next year, I believe he will continue to work on his game, and will put everything together in winning the US Open.Anderson has continued to impress, since his breakthrough Final of the US Open in 2017. Anderson made the Final of Wimbledon this year, and proved he was going to be a top player for a long time. However, I think that Khachanov's game is less-prone to break down than Anderson's game, and I think he wins in four tight sets against Kevin.
So, what do y'all think of my predictions? Please let me know your thoughts on who is going to win the majors next year?
Showing posts with label Simona Halep. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Simona Halep. Show all posts
Monday, December 3, 2018
Friday, November 16, 2018
WTA End of Season Wrap-Up
So, with Fed Cup over last weekend and the Czech Republic beating the United States, that meant that the WTA season is officially over. Hard to believe it started many months ago around New Year's! I want to take this post in my blog to go through some of the All About Tennis Blog's picks for a variety of topics, including: best player, best match, most improved player, biggest disappointment, and best coach. Let's dive in!
Best Player
The best player this year, in my opinion, is pretty straightforward: Simona Halep. Not only did she finish as the number one player at the year's end, but she did it even though she lost in the First Round of the US Open and didn't play the WTA Finals. This shows just how good the rest of Halep's year has been. And her year has been very impressive. After a title in Shenzhen, Halep's year continued with a fantastic run to Final of the Australian Open, including an epic win over Angelique Kerber, and her season really blossomed when she made the French Open Final, dismissing a hot Muguruza along the way, and came back from the a set and a break down against Sloane Stephens in the Final to win the French Open, her first major title. Couple that with a great win in Toronto against Stephens, also in the Final, and this was the best year of Halep's career, and I think deserves best player honors.
Best Match
When you think of the best match of 2018, a few matches come to mind. This list is not extensive at all, and it is really hard to pick a best match, because I haven't even watched all of the epic matches I will be listing. But, based on the matches I've seen and the matches I've heard were great, I have limited best match down to a few options. I think that one match that people don't mention much that was spectacular was Halep beating Lauren Davis 4-6, 6-4, 15-13 in the Third Round of the Australian Open. Halep had to save match points in that match, and Lauren Davis played admirably. Another amazing match also comes from the Australian Open, and that was Halep beating Kerber 6-3, 4-6, 9-7 in an amazing semifinal. Then, in the Final, Wozniacki beat Halep 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 in another spectacular match. So, for me, those three matches come to mind for best match of the year, and they all happened to be at the Australian Open, and involve Simona Halep. Another epic match happened between Halep and Stephens at Toronto this year, as preivously mentioned, and Halep won 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 in a very tight match. Stephens also played a very tight match with Camila Giorgi, beating her 4-6, 6-1, 8-6. Overall, I would have to say that, in my completely subjective opinion, that Halep beating Kerber in the Australian Open semifinal would have to be my match of the year.
Biggest Surprise
This is a no-brainer. What Aryna Sablenka did during the second half of the season was spectacular. I already had a feeling Sablenka was going to be very good when I saw her crush Sara Errani in Tianjin in 2017 6-1, 6-3, but this year was well-beyond my expectations. Sablenka started to show her potential in Eastbourne when she lost a tough, tight two-setter in the Final to Caroline Wozniacki. Then, she played fantastic power tennis to match the Semifinals of Cincinnati, won the Connecticut Open, played Osaka as close as anyone in the tournament reaching the Round of 16 at the US Open, and won Wuhan. This gave her the opportunity to play in the WTA Elite Trophy where she very closely missed out on the Semifinals, although next year, I would expect to see her at the WTA Finals, and perhaps a be a top three player there.
Biggest Disappointment
For me, Garbine Muguruza was the most disappointing this year. Expectations were extremely high following Wimbledon last year, and she has failed to come even close to repeating her past successes. Given her high standards, her results this year weren't great. She only won one title, at WTA International event in Monterrey, and reached only one other Final, losing in the Doha Final to Petra Kvitova. She really only played well, in terms of major success, at the French Open, making the Semifinals before going down quickly to Simona Halep. At the other three majors this year, she went a combined 3-3, never making it past the Second Round. In fact, after the French Open, Muguruza only made two semifinals for the rest of the year, in Hong Kong and the WTA Elite Trophy. I'm not saying this a terrible year, but given Muguruza's expectations, she didn't come close to hitting those expectations.
Best Coach
I want to finish with a quick discussion of best coach for the year. I think this is an easy decision: Darren Cahill was spectacular coaching Simona Halep this year. Although he won't continue as Simona's coach next year, his ability to help guide Simona to a grand slam is very impressive, given how hard it is to win a grand slam and the mental block that had seemed to form at Grand Slam Finals for Simona. His calm demeanor and good advice clearly played in role in Halep's successes this year, and he should be recognized for his fantastic coaching.
Well, that's an extremely quick breakdown the WTA season. I can't wait for next year!
Best Player
The best player this year, in my opinion, is pretty straightforward: Simona Halep. Not only did she finish as the number one player at the year's end, but she did it even though she lost in the First Round of the US Open and didn't play the WTA Finals. This shows just how good the rest of Halep's year has been. And her year has been very impressive. After a title in Shenzhen, Halep's year continued with a fantastic run to Final of the Australian Open, including an epic win over Angelique Kerber, and her season really blossomed when she made the French Open Final, dismissing a hot Muguruza along the way, and came back from the a set and a break down against Sloane Stephens in the Final to win the French Open, her first major title. Couple that with a great win in Toronto against Stephens, also in the Final, and this was the best year of Halep's career, and I think deserves best player honors.
Best Match
When you think of the best match of 2018, a few matches come to mind. This list is not extensive at all, and it is really hard to pick a best match, because I haven't even watched all of the epic matches I will be listing. But, based on the matches I've seen and the matches I've heard were great, I have limited best match down to a few options. I think that one match that people don't mention much that was spectacular was Halep beating Lauren Davis 4-6, 6-4, 15-13 in the Third Round of the Australian Open. Halep had to save match points in that match, and Lauren Davis played admirably. Another amazing match also comes from the Australian Open, and that was Halep beating Kerber 6-3, 4-6, 9-7 in an amazing semifinal. Then, in the Final, Wozniacki beat Halep 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 in another spectacular match. So, for me, those three matches come to mind for best match of the year, and they all happened to be at the Australian Open, and involve Simona Halep. Another epic match happened between Halep and Stephens at Toronto this year, as preivously mentioned, and Halep won 7-6, 3-6, 6-4 in a very tight match. Stephens also played a very tight match with Camila Giorgi, beating her 4-6, 6-1, 8-6. Overall, I would have to say that, in my completely subjective opinion, that Halep beating Kerber in the Australian Open semifinal would have to be my match of the year.
Biggest Surprise
This is a no-brainer. What Aryna Sablenka did during the second half of the season was spectacular. I already had a feeling Sablenka was going to be very good when I saw her crush Sara Errani in Tianjin in 2017 6-1, 6-3, but this year was well-beyond my expectations. Sablenka started to show her potential in Eastbourne when she lost a tough, tight two-setter in the Final to Caroline Wozniacki. Then, she played fantastic power tennis to match the Semifinals of Cincinnati, won the Connecticut Open, played Osaka as close as anyone in the tournament reaching the Round of 16 at the US Open, and won Wuhan. This gave her the opportunity to play in the WTA Elite Trophy where she very closely missed out on the Semifinals, although next year, I would expect to see her at the WTA Finals, and perhaps a be a top three player there.
Biggest Disappointment
For me, Garbine Muguruza was the most disappointing this year. Expectations were extremely high following Wimbledon last year, and she has failed to come even close to repeating her past successes. Given her high standards, her results this year weren't great. She only won one title, at WTA International event in Monterrey, and reached only one other Final, losing in the Doha Final to Petra Kvitova. She really only played well, in terms of major success, at the French Open, making the Semifinals before going down quickly to Simona Halep. At the other three majors this year, she went a combined 3-3, never making it past the Second Round. In fact, after the French Open, Muguruza only made two semifinals for the rest of the year, in Hong Kong and the WTA Elite Trophy. I'm not saying this a terrible year, but given Muguruza's expectations, she didn't come close to hitting those expectations.
Best Coach
I want to finish with a quick discussion of best coach for the year. I think this is an easy decision: Darren Cahill was spectacular coaching Simona Halep this year. Although he won't continue as Simona's coach next year, his ability to help guide Simona to a grand slam is very impressive, given how hard it is to win a grand slam and the mental block that had seemed to form at Grand Slam Finals for Simona. His calm demeanor and good advice clearly played in role in Halep's successes this year, and he should be recognized for his fantastic coaching.
Well, that's an extremely quick breakdown the WTA season. I can't wait for next year!
Saturday, August 26, 2017
US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions
With the women's US Open draw officially out, it is now time to make bold predictions and predict upsets that will look foolish within 30 minutes of play beginning on Monday. But, alas, I will still try my best to predict the big upsets that I think will occur in the US Open women's tournament. For the purposes of this post, upset predictions will be made based on non-seeds beating seeds and not on the odds for each match.
US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions
Sabine Lisicki to beat Shuai Zhang (27) in three sets: I am making this prediction for two reasons. First, despite having a good week in New Haven, including a straight sets victory over Petra Kvitova, Zhang had to pull out of the Connecticut Open with injury. I could tell she wasn't 100% healthy when she took a medical timeout in the Round of 16 against Magda Linette, and that was proven to be the case when she withdrew from the tournament. Second, Lisicki played well enough in Washington, making the Quarterfinals, that I feel confident enough that she will capitalize on this opportunity and win the match.
Lucie Safarova to beat Anett Kontaveit (26) in three sets: I'm not very confident about this one, but I saw enough in Toronto for me to think that she will pull the upset. Safarova won three matches in Toronto, including impressive victories over Dominika Cibulkova and Ekaterina Makarova. Yes, she lost to Sloane Stephens in Toronto and Cincinnati, but I think that's more of a matchup problem as opposed to anything regarding Lucie's form. Kontaveit form has also cooled off recently, losing in the First Round of Cincinnati and New Haven.
Camila Giorgi to beat Magdalena Rybarikova (31) in three sets: These two just played in Cincinnati, with Giorgi winning in two sets. I am not convinced of Rybarikova as a top-echelon player. Yes, she played amazing tennis at Wimbledon that showed how much variety she has in her arsenal, but I don't think she can sustain top tennis in the long haul. Yes, Rybarikova won in New Haven in 2014, but she didn't make it out of qualifying in Cincinnati nor New Haven, and the only reason she made it out of qualifying in Toronto is because she got into the draw as a lucky loser. Giorgi also looked very good in Cincinnati and came within one set of the Quarterfinals.
Ashleigh Barty to beat Ana Konjuh (21) in two sets: Barty looked great in Cincinnati. She qualified and made the Round of 16 of Cincinnati and had a very impressive win over Venus Williams. Until she played Caroline Wozniacki in the Round of 16, she had only dropped one set in qualifying and the main draw combined. Barty also qualified and made the Round of 16 in Toronto, coming within one set of the Quarterfinals. Konjuh, meanwhile, has lost three matches in a row, which included a retirement in Toronto.
Sofia Kenin to beat Lauren Davis (32) in three sets: Davis has lost six matches in a row, not winning a match since Eastbourne, where (despite winning a qualifying match) the only reason she got into the main draw and not out in the Final Qualifying Round was because she was a lucky loser. In her six match losing streak, she has only won one set and won nine games combined in the past two matches. Kenin did lose in qualifying of Cincinnati and New Haven, but earlier this summer won an ITF tournament in Stockton, made the Final of another in Lexington, and made the Semifinals of another in Sacramento.
The popular upset pick will probably be Maria Sharapova to beat Simona Halep (2), given the 6-0 head to head lead for Sharapova and the fact that she has five majors to Halep's zero. However, I don't see it happening. Sharapova has played only a single match since retiring in Rome, and had to withdraw from the next tournament she played in Stanford. And she was taken to three sets in that match in Stanford that she did play against Jennifer Brady. I don't think Sharapova has the matchplay necessary to beat Halep, and so I think Simona wins that match in three sets.
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
The Current, and Future, State of the WTA: Parity or Lack of Star Power?
Does a seed even mean anything anymore? That's the question that many tennis fans must surely be asking themselves over much of 2016, but especially the past two weeks in Madrid, and now Rome. And it's becoming reality that top seeds will fall in what seems like huge upsets weekly and pandemonium quickly spreading throughout the draw. So, what should we make of the current state of the WTA?
Before answering that question, it's important note that a huge reason for why it feels like there has been more crazy draw sheets this year, as opposed to years past, is because Serena Williams has been out for much of the year and thus, while in years past there might have been a lot of drama with seeds, it was shielded by a constant presence on top of the women's game. One always knew that Serena would be there at the end of the tournament and that, through all of the noise, consistency would reign at the top of the game.
And, ultimately, I think that the dominant presence of Serena was good for the game, as tennis fans knew that Serena would play well and exemplify the quality of tennis to be expected from the top of the women's game. This year, Serena's age (24 years old) looks to be effecting her play and injury/illness concerns have also hampered her game, so the flaws in other WTA top players are more visible. But, with Serena's retirement not too far in the future, it's important to look at how the tour will be without her.
To help look at this issue further, let's look at examples of what I have been discussing, first showing how the seeds did in Madrid, and are currently performing in Rome. In Madrid, at the end of the First Round, five seeds were out, but these included both the number one and two seeds, Agnieska Radwanska and Angelique Kerber, respectively. But, the seeds continued to fall in the Second Round, as six more seeds were sent packing (or in Safarova's case, withdrew) including the three seed, Garbine Muguruza. It got to the point where by the Quarterfinals, the only seed remaining was sixth-seeded Simona Halep.
And while you can make the argument that much of this "craziness" was negated by Halep being the eventual winner of the tournament, I just find it impossible to get past that out of the 16 players seeded in this tournament on the women's side, only one could manage to win three matches in a row. And while some of the losses are understandable, Cibulkova has given Aga problems ever since she double-bageled Dominka in Australia in Sydney in 2013, other losses, such as Muguruza flaming out to Irina-Camelia Begu were unacceptable for a player of her ability.
And so far, for the WTA in Rome this week, the same general pattern has continued, besides Serena finally bringing a level of calmness to the top of the draw. While in the First Round of Rome there weren't many upsets, with only three seeded players falling, it is important to note that this could be due to the fact that the top eight seeds had byes into the Second Round. So, when put into that light, 3/8 seeded players who actually played in the First Round losing actually is worse than it initially seems. However, in the Second Round, eight more seeds were lost, meaning that 12/16 seeds were gone before the Round of 16, and of the 12 seeds in the Second Round, 2/3 were dismissed. And these seeds included the number two seed, Angie Kerber, the four seed, Victoria Azarenka, fifth seed Petra Kvitova, and Madrid champion (and sixth seed) Simona Halep. It's safe to say that today was disastrous for seeded players in Rome. This means that the Round of 16 will feature only one matchup of seeded players on the WTA side, with Suarez Navarro and Bacsinszky playing each other tomorrow.
There are two different main arguments that can be debated regarding the wild results from this season, and specifically in Madrid/Rome. The first possibility that could possibly be deliberated is that the results are a direct consequence of the parity of the of WTA. By parity, I mean that because the level of a top player (with, personally, the exception of Azarenka on hard courts and Serena on any surface) and lower ranked players are not that huge, so that when a player lower in the rankings upsets a seeded player, it really isn't very surprising at all. Pundits making this argument would say that, for instance, Eugenie Bouchard is only slightly worse than Angelique Kerber, despite the 44 places separating them in the live rankings. Therefore, it would be completely understandable to these people that Bouchard dispatched Kerber today. However, doesn't this "parity argument" merely seem like an excuse for players who lose early, as opposed to a legitimate reason for the results? Because, in reality, the players at the top are there for a reason: they earned the most points. So, if we throw aside the possibilities of players being ranked low due to injury and that a player might obtain more points from playing more tournaments, the players with more points should be better than those below them.
The opposite side of the coin here would be that the wave of upsets that has hit the WTA Tour this year is due to a lack of star power, where a group of players can just take over the tour and will constantly be battling in the later stages of tournaments, week after week. On the men's side, this would be the equivalent of the Big Four (Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, and RafaelNadal). Obviously, there are some flaws with this line of thinking. First off, Serena and Venus Williams are still on tour, so despite Maria Sharapova being out on suspension, these are two big names who have won many, many majors between them. The counter to this opposing viewpoint would be that Venus is obviously finished as top tennis player (due to her age and Sjogren's Syndrome) and so while she might have a big name, it is unrelated to the argument at hand. And with Serena's issues this season, as previously mentioned, this fails to address what will happen when she retires, along with the results when she was gone this season. And, one could say that Victoria Azarenka has dominated the spring hard court season this year, winning Indian Wells and Miami. However, as Madrid showed us, who wins the tournament is less related to this topic as opposed to how seeds on the whole are doing.
However, if we are to take this argument at face value, we would be led to believe that because there is not a group of "commanding players" on tour (besides Serena), it is no surprise that upsets are so frequent nowadays on the WTA. Because there is this "feeling" that the playing field is equal, whether one is ranked number two or number 46 psychologically doesn't matter because players like Radwanska and Kerber do not have the mindset of typical top players. And perhaps this is a direct result of Serena winning so many majors over the past few years, that she hinders other players from reaching stardom, and the mindset that comes with it. I mean, if anything, Kerber winning a major has worsened her results, and while this may be because she is struggling with media attention that a major winner attracts, it is certainly not something that would be expected of the number two player in the world.
So, ultimately, is there a clear-cut answer to whether parity or a lack of star power is producing the current results on the WTA Tour? I don't think so. Throwing aside the obvious possibility of confounding factors not considered in this article, I think that it's probably a combination of the two sides that lead to the present state of the WTA. Despite my earlier, big spiel on ranking points, perhaps women's tennis, with, for the most part, a lack of big weapons, lends itself to closer matches and more parity. However, at the same time, it's very valid to say that because there hasn't been consistent winners on the WTA Tour recently, especially in majors, this definitely diminishes the star power of everyone but Serena, so when Serena is not playing well or is off the tour for some reason, it almost feels as if the WTA is an uninteresting free-for-all. And, from a financial perspective, this is definitely not a good thing. Because, a lack of stars means a lack of attendance at WTA matches (and non-joint events, in general).
However, I don't want to say that the future of tennis is bleak. It's also important to remember that when Serena leaves the tour, all players, but especially the top ones, will have a much better shot at winning majors, and eventually more WTA players will win three, four, five, etc. majors and find consistency in their games. And, inevitably this will lead to stardom, and the WTA will be perfectly fine. However, currently, with Serena not being as dominant as she once was (at least currently) and many other players high in the ranking unable to fulfill the void this has left, the current and immediate future of the WTA is not a pretty sight. However, I urge tennis fans and members of the tennis media not to panic, and to see the big picture on this issue. Everything will be fine.
And, anyways, if Serena wins the French Open, all of these problems will disappear from sight, put on the backburner for another time.
Before answering that question, it's important note that a huge reason for why it feels like there has been more crazy draw sheets this year, as opposed to years past, is because Serena Williams has been out for much of the year and thus, while in years past there might have been a lot of drama with seeds, it was shielded by a constant presence on top of the women's game. One always knew that Serena would be there at the end of the tournament and that, through all of the noise, consistency would reign at the top of the game.
And, ultimately, I think that the dominant presence of Serena was good for the game, as tennis fans knew that Serena would play well and exemplify the quality of tennis to be expected from the top of the women's game. This year, Serena's age (24 years old) looks to be effecting her play and injury/illness concerns have also hampered her game, so the flaws in other WTA top players are more visible. But, with Serena's retirement not too far in the future, it's important to look at how the tour will be without her.
To help look at this issue further, let's look at examples of what I have been discussing, first showing how the seeds did in Madrid, and are currently performing in Rome. In Madrid, at the end of the First Round, five seeds were out, but these included both the number one and two seeds, Agnieska Radwanska and Angelique Kerber, respectively. But, the seeds continued to fall in the Second Round, as six more seeds were sent packing (or in Safarova's case, withdrew) including the three seed, Garbine Muguruza. It got to the point where by the Quarterfinals, the only seed remaining was sixth-seeded Simona Halep.
And while you can make the argument that much of this "craziness" was negated by Halep being the eventual winner of the tournament, I just find it impossible to get past that out of the 16 players seeded in this tournament on the women's side, only one could manage to win three matches in a row. And while some of the losses are understandable, Cibulkova has given Aga problems ever since she double-bageled Dominka in Australia in Sydney in 2013, other losses, such as Muguruza flaming out to Irina-Camelia Begu were unacceptable for a player of her ability.
And so far, for the WTA in Rome this week, the same general pattern has continued, besides Serena finally bringing a level of calmness to the top of the draw. While in the First Round of Rome there weren't many upsets, with only three seeded players falling, it is important to note that this could be due to the fact that the top eight seeds had byes into the Second Round. So, when put into that light, 3/8 seeded players who actually played in the First Round losing actually is worse than it initially seems. However, in the Second Round, eight more seeds were lost, meaning that 12/16 seeds were gone before the Round of 16, and of the 12 seeds in the Second Round, 2/3 were dismissed. And these seeds included the number two seed, Angie Kerber, the four seed, Victoria Azarenka, fifth seed Petra Kvitova, and Madrid champion (and sixth seed) Simona Halep. It's safe to say that today was disastrous for seeded players in Rome. This means that the Round of 16 will feature only one matchup of seeded players on the WTA side, with Suarez Navarro and Bacsinszky playing each other tomorrow.
There are two different main arguments that can be debated regarding the wild results from this season, and specifically in Madrid/Rome. The first possibility that could possibly be deliberated is that the results are a direct consequence of the parity of the of WTA. By parity, I mean that because the level of a top player (with, personally, the exception of Azarenka on hard courts and Serena on any surface) and lower ranked players are not that huge, so that when a player lower in the rankings upsets a seeded player, it really isn't very surprising at all. Pundits making this argument would say that, for instance, Eugenie Bouchard is only slightly worse than Angelique Kerber, despite the 44 places separating them in the live rankings. Therefore, it would be completely understandable to these people that Bouchard dispatched Kerber today. However, doesn't this "parity argument" merely seem like an excuse for players who lose early, as opposed to a legitimate reason for the results? Because, in reality, the players at the top are there for a reason: they earned the most points. So, if we throw aside the possibilities of players being ranked low due to injury and that a player might obtain more points from playing more tournaments, the players with more points should be better than those below them.
The opposite side of the coin here would be that the wave of upsets that has hit the WTA Tour this year is due to a lack of star power, where a group of players can just take over the tour and will constantly be battling in the later stages of tournaments, week after week. On the men's side, this would be the equivalent of the Big Four (Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, and RafaelNadal). Obviously, there are some flaws with this line of thinking. First off, Serena and Venus Williams are still on tour, so despite Maria Sharapova being out on suspension, these are two big names who have won many, many majors between them. The counter to this opposing viewpoint would be that Venus is obviously finished as top tennis player (due to her age and Sjogren's Syndrome) and so while she might have a big name, it is unrelated to the argument at hand. And with Serena's issues this season, as previously mentioned, this fails to address what will happen when she retires, along with the results when she was gone this season. And, one could say that Victoria Azarenka has dominated the spring hard court season this year, winning Indian Wells and Miami. However, as Madrid showed us, who wins the tournament is less related to this topic as opposed to how seeds on the whole are doing.
However, if we are to take this argument at face value, we would be led to believe that because there is not a group of "commanding players" on tour (besides Serena), it is no surprise that upsets are so frequent nowadays on the WTA. Because there is this "feeling" that the playing field is equal, whether one is ranked number two or number 46 psychologically doesn't matter because players like Radwanska and Kerber do not have the mindset of typical top players. And perhaps this is a direct result of Serena winning so many majors over the past few years, that she hinders other players from reaching stardom, and the mindset that comes with it. I mean, if anything, Kerber winning a major has worsened her results, and while this may be because she is struggling with media attention that a major winner attracts, it is certainly not something that would be expected of the number two player in the world.
So, ultimately, is there a clear-cut answer to whether parity or a lack of star power is producing the current results on the WTA Tour? I don't think so. Throwing aside the obvious possibility of confounding factors not considered in this article, I think that it's probably a combination of the two sides that lead to the present state of the WTA. Despite my earlier, big spiel on ranking points, perhaps women's tennis, with, for the most part, a lack of big weapons, lends itself to closer matches and more parity. However, at the same time, it's very valid to say that because there hasn't been consistent winners on the WTA Tour recently, especially in majors, this definitely diminishes the star power of everyone but Serena, so when Serena is not playing well or is off the tour for some reason, it almost feels as if the WTA is an uninteresting free-for-all. And, from a financial perspective, this is definitely not a good thing. Because, a lack of stars means a lack of attendance at WTA matches (and non-joint events, in general).
However, I don't want to say that the future of tennis is bleak. It's also important to remember that when Serena leaves the tour, all players, but especially the top ones, will have a much better shot at winning majors, and eventually more WTA players will win three, four, five, etc. majors and find consistency in their games. And, inevitably this will lead to stardom, and the WTA will be perfectly fine. However, currently, with Serena not being as dominant as she once was (at least currently) and many other players high in the ranking unable to fulfill the void this has left, the current and immediate future of the WTA is not a pretty sight. However, I urge tennis fans and members of the tennis media not to panic, and to see the big picture on this issue. Everything will be fine.
And, anyways, if Serena wins the French Open, all of these problems will disappear from sight, put on the backburner for another time.
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