US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions

With the women's US Open draw officially out, it is now time to make bold predictions and predict upsets that will look foolish within 30 minutes of play beginning on Monday. But, alas, I will still try my best to predict the big upsets that I think will occur in the US Open women's tournament. For the purposes of this post, upset predictions will be made based on non-seeds beating seeds and not on the odds for each match.

US Open Women's First Round Upset Predictions

Sabine Lisicki to beat Shuai Zhang (27) in three sets: I am making this prediction for two reasons. First, despite having a good week in New Haven, including a straight sets victory over Petra Kvitova, Zhang had to pull out of the Connecticut Open with injury. I could tell she wasn't 100% healthy when she took a medical timeout in the Round of 16 against Magda Linette, and that was proven to be the case when she withdrew from the tournament. Second, Lisicki played well enough in Washington, making the Quarterfinals, that I feel confident enough that she will capitalize on this opportunity and win the match.

Lucie Safarova to beat Anett Kontaveit (26) in three sets: I'm not very confident about this one, but I saw enough in Toronto for me to think that she will pull the upset. Safarova won three matches in Toronto, including impressive victories over Dominika Cibulkova and Ekaterina Makarova. Yes, she lost to Sloane Stephens in Toronto and Cincinnati, but I think that's more of a matchup problem as opposed to anything regarding Lucie's form. Kontaveit form has also cooled off recently, losing in the First Round of Cincinnati and New Haven.

Camila Giorgi to beat Magdalena Rybarikova (31) in three sets: These two just played in Cincinnati, with Giorgi winning in two sets. I am not convinced of Rybarikova as a top-echelon player. Yes, she played amazing tennis at Wimbledon that showed how much variety she has in her arsenal, but I don't think she can sustain top tennis in the long haul. Yes, Rybarikova won in New Haven in 2014, but she didn't make it out of qualifying in Cincinnati nor New Haven, and the only reason she made it out of qualifying in Toronto is because she got into the draw as a lucky loser. Giorgi also looked very good in Cincinnati and came within one set of the Quarterfinals.

Ashleigh Barty to beat Ana Konjuh (21) in two sets: Barty looked great in Cincinnati. She qualified and made the Round of 16 of Cincinnati and had a very impressive win over Venus Williams. Until she played Caroline Wozniacki in the Round of 16, she had only dropped one set in qualifying and the main draw combined. Barty also qualified and made the Round of 16 in Toronto, coming within one set of the Quarterfinals. Konjuh, meanwhile, has lost three matches in a row, which included a retirement in Toronto.

Sofia Kenin to beat Lauren Davis (32) in three sets: Davis has lost six matches in a row, not winning a match since Eastbourne, where (despite winning a qualifying match) the only reason she got into the main draw and not out in the Final Qualifying Round was because she was a lucky loser. In her six match losing streak, she has only won one set and won nine games combined in the past two matches. Kenin did lose in qualifying of Cincinnati and New Haven, but earlier this summer won an ITF tournament in Stockton, made the Final of another in Lexington, and made the Semifinals of another in Sacramento.

The popular upset pick will probably be Maria Sharapova to beat Simona Halep (2), given the 6-0 head to head lead for Sharapova and the fact that she has five majors to Halep's zero. However, I don't see it happening. Sharapova has played only a single match since retiring in Rome, and had to withdraw from the next tournament she played in Stanford. And she was taken to three sets in that match in Stanford that she did play against Jennifer Brady. I don't think Sharapova has the matchplay necessary to beat Halep, and so I think Simona wins that match in three sets.