I thought for my next post I would give a tournament preview, and since I love clay court tennis, I chose Buenos Aires. This ATP 250 tournament should be a very good one. In last week's South American clay court tournament, Juan Ignacio Londero got his first ever ATP World Tour title, beating Guido Pella in three sets in the Final. Londero played well all week, attacking opponents with his potent forehand, and playing smart clay court tennis. As someone who's watched Londero climb through the rankings, it was great to see. Pella also played an excellent tournament. Guido had three big wins in a row, beating Ramos, Schwartzman, and Cuevas. On a clay court, beating those three in a row is not an easy feat.
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
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