When one initially takes a look at the results of Stan Wawrinka, what one sees could puzzle him or her. There is seemingly a rash amount of inconsistencies. At some points you might ask yourself, "How can this man string together matches on the ATP Tour?". On other moments, however, you might ask yourself, "How has this man not consistently won majors during his career?" The answer to the second question is quite simple: The Big Four (consisting of Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer) is just too good. And while this is less of the case now than it has been in the past (as evident today), the fact that Stan was able to win one shows just how high his level can be.
The answer to the first question has to do with Stan's mindset. Although this is not always the case (i.e. Chennai/Rotterdam), Stan sometimes does not show up mentally for non-major tournaments. This year, for instance, Stan has lost to players such as Sergiy Stakhovsky and Federico Delbonis in ATP 250 tournaments. However, his in-and-out mindset even applies to Master 1000 Tournaments. At Indian Wells, for example, Stan lost his first match to Robin Haase and at Miami, Stan lost his second match in straight sets to Adrian Mannarino. This is not showing disrespect to Sergiy, Federico, Robin, nor Adrian, however, it is frustrating to see now that the world knows just how well Stan can play. In addition, Wawrinka has lost in his first or second match of a non-slam tournament in six of his nine ATP Tour-level events. That just seems a little bit off, especially after watching Stan at the majors.
At the four Grand Slams (Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open), Stan Wawrinka is a totally different man. It's as if a light switch goes off in his head. This is best exemplified by the fact that from the 2013 French Open onwards, Stan has made the Quarterfinals or better in seven of the nine majors (including the 2015 French Open) during this time span. Of these majors he has made the Semifinals or better in four of the nine and won the 2014 Australian Open. This interesting trend has resurfaced because Wawrinka beat Roger Federer in straight sets today to make the Semifinals of the 2015 French Open where, if he continues to play as well as he played today, he will be near-impossible to beat.
So, what does this all say about Stan Wawrinka's mindset? To me, it shows that majors are his one and only priority. Whether or not Stan does well in a non-major tournament seems to almost entirely depend on how important he thinks a tournament is to do well at a subsequent major. Let's dive in deeper.
Ever wonder why Stan "randomly" shows up for Chennai, a measly ATP 250 tournament? Well, after a long offseason it is his only warm-up tournament before the Australian Open. Therefore, if Stan wants to have good form going into the first major of the season, it is imperative that he do well at Chennai. Unsurprisingly, Wawrinka has won the tournament two years in a row. It's also unsurprising that Wawrinka, "randomly" took out the 2014 US Open champion Marin Cilic in a Quarterfinals run in Cincinnati in his final warm-up tournament before the 2014 US Open. After losing the first set to Cilic, he lost one game in the final two sets combined, a very impressive feat considering how Cilic performed at the US Open.
Wawrinka made at least the Quarterfinals of two majors in one year for the first time in 2013, where it seems as if he started taking his job much more seriously. While Stan had won a couple of titles on clay at this point (nothing on grass), at the majors, hard court had certainly been Wawrinka's best surface. Stan had made the Quarterfinals of the US Open in 2010 and the Australian Open in 2011, but hadn't made the Quarterfinals of either the French Open or Wimbledon. But, when Wawrinka started taking his career more seriously in 2013, his attitude towards grass and clay warmup tournaments changed as well.
In 2013, on clay, Wawrinka made the Quarterfinals of Monte Carlo, the Semifinals of Casablanca, the Finals of Buenos Aires (although not a warm-up tournament) and Madrid, and was the champion of Estoril. And, subsequently, how did Wawrinka do at the 2013 French Open? He made his first ever French Quarterfinals. And while he bonked out early of the 2014 French Open, he showed that he took warm-up tournaments on clay seriously, winning Monte Carlo. This year, Wawrinka made the Semifinals in Rome, beating Rafael Nadal on the way. His efforts were rewarded this season, as he has a really good shot to win the French Open this year for his second major.
On grass, Wawrinka's desire to win Wimbledon, through the help of warm-up tournaments, has been rewarded as well. In 2013, in line with Stan's new attitude, Wawrinka made the Final of 's-Hertogenbosch, not losing a set until the Final. And while this did not pay off immediately, following a run to the Semifinals of Queen's Club, he finally made the Quarterfinals of Wimbledon, losing only one set in his first four matches and even taking a set off of Roger Federer in his quarterfinal. Stan's hard work on the grass paid off.
Now, I'm not saying that there are no exceptions to Wawrinka's norm form of play. For instance, Stan obviously decided to take the 2014 Year End Championship (where he made the Semifinals) and 2015 Rotterdam (where he won it) seriously. However, that might be just to the streaky nature of the Wawrinka game itself than his mindset. And it's not like he does well at every warm-up tournament either, as he clunked out in his match in Madrid last year and his second match in Madrid this year, for example. But, perhaps that's because he doesn't see the Madrid elevation, for instance, as a great warmup for clay now that he has established himself on the surface (which wasn't the case in 2013). Perhaps that's why he's only has had runs in the much-lower elevations of Monte Carlo and Rome in the past couple of years.
But, in any case, Stan Wawrinka on the whole has shown that, in 2013, he completely changed his mindset. He started taking the majors much more seriously and really seeing the value of warm-up tournaments. The next step for Wawrinka will be to take an even greater number of tournaments seriously as his career goes on.
So, while many may call Stan "unpredictable", in my mind, he's really not so random.
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