Saturday, January 12, 2013

Draw Analysis: Australian Open

With the 2013 Australian Open coming soon, it is time, once again, for my draw analysis.  This will be where I pick a top man and woman, in singles, who have in my opinion, the toughest and easiest draws.

To me, draw day could be the most important day of the tournament.  If one has an easy or tough draw,  it will significantly effect their chances to win.  For instance, if a top player was drew to possibly play Venus Williams in the Second Round, they would have a much harder time winning the tournament as opposed to them getting a draw to play a no-name player (although Lukas Rosol taught us no match is a gimme).  Let's get started.

Top Women With The Toughest Draw: Petra Kvitova

The hard-hitting Kvitova is going to have a tough time with this draw.  And the tough part of her draw starts in the First Round.  Here she will play former French Open champion, Frencesca Schiavone.  She  has great stamina, and will definitely be a tough out.  In the Second Round, she could possibly have to play one of the most underrated players on tour, Laura Robson.  At the latest major, the 2012 US Open,  Robson made it to a career-best-for-any-major Round of 16.  She will not go down without a fight.  A possible duel with Sloane Stephen could be in store for Round Three.  Sloane recently gave Serena Williams a scare at Brisbane, and could definitely upset Petra.

The Round of 16 could have in store a date with Nadia Petrova, whose big hitting could knock Kvitova off the court.  Then, if by some miracle she wins that many games, she will most likely have to play Serena Williams in the Quarterfinals.  Then, in the Semifinals, she might have to take on the top seed, Victoria Azarenka.  Petra Kvitova is in a terrible spot due to the draws.

Top Women With The Easiest Draw: Li Na

Until the Round of 16, there just seems like nobody will beat her.  The only ranked player she could possibly face is Sorena Cristea.  And let me tell you something, I watched a match between her and Serena Williams this summer, and she is not the most impressive seeded player in this draw, to say the least.

Her Round of 16 matchup could possibly be against Samantha Stosur, and while she is good, she is certainly beatable.  Aga Radwanksa is a potential matchup in the Quarterfinals, but if Li Na has made it to there, I believe she will hit Radwanksa off the court.  Mix in the fact that both Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka are on the other side of the draw, and this is a pretty easy draw for Li.

Top Man With The Toughest Draw: Nobody

Honestly.  As I was pouring over the men's singles draw, I could not find one top man who had a more difficult than normal draw.  In fact, the top men in this year's singles draws actually have it pretty easy.  I don't expect any early upsets in this tournament.

Top Man With The Easiest Draw: Novak Djokovic

Although we are really grasping at straws here, Djokovic has a marginally easier draw than the other top competition.  He won't have to face a person in the top 30 until the Round of 16.  The highest possible ranked player he would face is Stanislas Wawrinka, and I don't think he has the game to beat Djokovic.

Sitting on the other side of his quarter is Tomas Berdych, and based on Berdych's track record, we don't know if Berdych will even be in it at this point.  And anyways, I think Djokovic would much rather face Berdych than possibly Juan Martin Del Potro, the sixth seed (Berdych is the fifth seed).  Most importantly, however, is the fact that both Roger Federer and Andy Murray are placed on the other side of the draw.  This is definitely not the toughest draw that he could get.


Through my analysis, I hope you understand the importance of draw day.  This day is vital to the tournament.  Tennis isn't always fair.

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