Friday, August 24, 2012

Why Draw Day Could be the Most Important of a Major

Yesterday, the US Open draws came out.  Now, for some, this is just another batch non-news, but, it is much more important at a major than you might think.  Why is this?  Well, let's take a look at the women's and men's draw to find out.

Tomas Berdych has had a rough portion of his year.  He lost in the First Round of both Wimbledon and the Olympics.  The US Open is supposed to get him back on track.  It's unfortunate he got a bad draw.  In the opening round, Berdych will play David Goffn.  This is the same David Goffin who made it to the Round of 16 at the French Open and the Third Round of Wimbledon.  David Goffin took a set of Roger Federer at the French Open.  This is not good for Berdych.  And if he wins this, he has to play Denis Istomin, who was one set away from a Wimbledon Quarterfinals appearance this year.  This was a horrible draw for Berdych, and one that could shape his tournament.

Another example of this in the men's draw, this time working the man's favor is with Roger Federer.  Yes, he will have to play Andy Murray in the Semifinals, if they both make it there, but for at least the early matches, there could not have been an easier draw for him.  To start off, he plays Donald Young, who has not won a match in who knows how long.  His potential Third Round Opponent, Fernando Verdasco, does not have the weapons to beat him, and his potential Quarterfinals foe, Tomas Berdych, who might not even make it out of the First Round, has fizzled out ever since his Wimbledon Finals appearance.  There are no hidden roadblocks for Federer in this draw.  This was a great draw for Federer.

On the women's side, Angelique Kerber has a deceptively hard draw.  When one looks at the bracket, one would see that Kerber would only possibly see one seed, and a low one at that (Tamira Paszek ; 29 seed), until possibly the Round of 16.  Well, there are lots of under-the-radar roadblocks thrown in there.  This starts with her First Round opponent, Anne Keothavong.  Keothavong took Wozniaki the distance at the Olympics and there is no reason why she can not carry that momentum into the US Open.  In the Second Round, she might have to take on two-time US Open champion Venus Williams, who she had to beat in two tiebreaks at the US Open, and the in Third Round, she might have to play Paszek, who made an under-the-radar Quarterfinals Wimbledon appearance this year.  Needless to say this is not has easy as it seems.

The easy draw for the women has to belong to Maria Sharapova.  She will not potentially have to play a seeded opponent until the Third Round, if she makes it that far.  Unlike Kerber's draw, however, there is no tricky players early in the draw. Her potential opponent, 27 seed Anabel Medina Garrigues, would be blown off the court with Sharapova's power.  In Sharapova's whole quarter, there is only one top ten player, 5 seed Petra Kvitova.  Sharapova would not potantially have to play Kvitova until the Quarterfinals.  Yes, Serena Williams is in her half of the draw, but as we saw at the French Open, she can lose early in a major.  Williams also looked shaky at the Western and Southern Open.  Until those potential matchups, however, things are looking pretty good for Maria Sharapova.

These examples show just how important the draws can be at a major, in this case the US Open.  Now, a couple players are going to have to prove me wrong, and a couple of people will have to take advantage of their easy draws!

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