Calvin Hemery and the Grind of Lower-Level Tennis

Calvin Hemery collapsed into the green dirt, limbs spread wide. It was partially in elation and partially in exhaustion, as evidenced by how hard it was for him to get up afterwards.

The Frenchman had just finished a ridiculous, come-from-behind 6-7(8), 7-6(4), 7-6(4) victory over Alexis Galarneau on the green clay of Savannah. At four hours and 21 minutes, it was the second-longest Challenger match since 2010.

Hemery had to come back from a set down. He was a break down twice in the second set. He was down a break in the third set. He let a *5-3 lead in the third turn into 5-5 *0-40 on his own serve.

Yet, Hemery persevered and ultimately triumphed, all for a measly seven ranking points and $1300 USD that likely was near-nothing after expenses.

The 28 year-old Hemery was once a promising talent. He seemed like he was set to make a later (by tennis standards) rise into the top 100 when, in 2018, his ranking peaked at World No. 116 in April of 2018.

Shortly thereafter, Hemery even got to compete in the main draw of the French Open, one of the four pinnacles of the sport. While Hemery lost his first-round match to Diego Schwartzman, he seemed as if he were on a path to success.

Yet, Hemery never made it to the promised land. By the end of the 2018 season, he was outside of the top 200 in the world. Throughout much of the rest of the 2018 and 2019 seasons, although there's a lack of clear information online, it's clear that the Frenchman was injured and playing less often than you would expect for what seemed like a fast-rising player.

In fact, in 2019, Hemery played just 35 matches all season.

Then, in 2020, any sort of momentum Hemery had was officially put to rest, as the coronavirus pandemic knocked out all professional playing opportunities for much of the year.

Perhaps, you could argue, that the pandemic hiatus came at the perfect time for Hemery. The lack of matchplay in 2019 had hit hard, as he had fallen solidly outside of the top 400 in the world. To start 2020, Hemery was just 1-1 at the Challenger level and 4-4 at the ITF level, losing to players such as David Perez Sanz and Baptiste Crepatte.

And, after returning from the pandemic, it took Hemery nine ITF events before he made a final and 11 ITF events to win a title, the $25k event in Caslano.

That August 2021 title in Caslano was the last professional tennis event that Hemery has won.

Hemery's ranking has waffled in the past couple of years. Even with the trophy in Caslano, he has been stuck between 295 and 500 in the world from June 2021 until the present, a far cry from being on the cusp of four guaranteed Slam paychecks a year back in 2018.

I bring up Hemery's history to put into context where his game, and quite possibly, his mind was at during the physical showdown with Galarneau. Savannah, like all tournaments at this point for the Frenchman, was very important for the future of his career.

Just last week, on the green clay of Tallahassee, Hemery had a disappointing 4-6, 2-6 defeat to Rio Noguchi. Hemery won just 51% of his service points and 33% of his return points, lacking the patience that clay-court tennis required. Noguchi ground him into the dirt.

And, to be frank, it seemed as if, by the time Noguchi went up 6-4, 2-0* in the second set, that Hemery had mentally given up on the match.

It seemed as if history was repeating itself in Savannah, as Galarneau survived a tough first set and surged ahead in the second.

Yet, this time, Hemery fought back.

It would have been easy for Hemery to succumb to mental demons in that second set or after blowing his lead in the third. But, this time, he showcased a steely determination. 

Hemery demonstrated a will to win that can only come from the desperation of knowing that there's a ticking time bomb, waiting to explode, on the careers of players who attempt outlast the inevitable in ITF's and on the Challenger Tour.

After playing such a physically-exhausting grind of a match against Galarneau, it would have been very easy for Hemery to feel as if he'd done his "job" for the week and give a haphazard effort in his second-round match with Bjorn Fratangelo.

Yet, Hemery put together another superhuman effort, showing very few signs of fatigue in a 7-6(1), 6-3 victory over Fratangelo. Even as the first set passed the one-hour mark, Hemery never seemed to slow. He kept pounding big serves and forehands, winning 81% of his first serves and not getting broken all match.

And that's been the key to success throughout Hemery's career. Regardless of the surface, the Frenchman has always wanted to take the racquet out of his opponents' hands with his huge first serve and powerful, punishing forehand.

Where Hemery has often gone awry is with his rally tolerance, as watching one of his matches often feels like going on a water slide, with ups, downs, twists, and turns. And, just when you're at the finish of the slide, you get dunked into a big, disorienting pool of water.

In other words, watching Hemery play is a topsy-turvey experience.

Yet, at least in Savannah, it was an experience worth having.

Hemery's Savannah quarterfinal match was against top-seed Zizou Bergs. Bergs had won the Tallahassee final the previous week and was coming into this match on a seven-match winning streak, having won 14 of his last 15 sets.

Yet, perhaps due to some fatigue, but certainly due to Hemery's controlled aggression, Bergs' winning streak stopped there.

Hemery put together another stunning performance, shocking Bergs 6-4, 2-6, 6-2. The Frenchman punished Bergs' big serve, winning 50% of his second-serve return points and breaking four times.

Hemery, once again, was crushing his forehand, controlling the baseline from this wing. Bergs' forehand has been so excellent on the green clay this season, yet it was Hemery's forehand making the bigger impact in this matchup.

In the semifinals, Hemery took on a relatively unknown player in Tristan Boyer, who came into Savannah at World No. 863. This was a different ball game for Hemery. Suddenly, the Frenchman was the favorite, expected to beat the unheralded American.

Hemery had established himself, by beating Fratangelo and Bergs, as a major contender for the title and, with a seemingly-overmatched player waiting in the semifinals, a second-career Challenger title was coming into view.

But, it wouldn't be easy. After playing just one game on Saturday, severe weather delayed the rest of the semifinal until Sunday. This means that both players, if they were to win the championship, would need to essentially play two matches in one day to do so.

Suddenly, that light at the end of the tunnel for Hemery started to cloud up.

But, on Sunday, the Frenchman started well, taking the opening set 6-2. He won 86% of his first serves in the set and wasn't broken.

Hemery wouldn't win even 65% of his first serves in either of the last two sets and was broken a combined four times. Hemery had become passive from the baseline, the spring in his step was gone. The wind, the crowd, and the windy conditions had combined to create a cinder block weight upon Hemery's tired legs.

Boyer completed the comeback victory, defeating Hemery 2-6, 6-4, 6-3. Even when Hemery went up a break early in the third, he never seemed to regain his form from prior days' matches, or even just from the first set.

Hemery was truly exhausted.

So, where does he go from here? Hemery's live ranking is currently at World No. 344, improving 31 spots after Hemery's semifinal appearance in Savannah.

I'm sure that it's far from where Hemery would like to be ranked, but it's a start. And, now, the Frenchman has regained the confidence in himself. He can be sure of his fitness, his serve, his forehand.

The ending of the Boyer match didn't define Hemery's entire week of tennis. The road to get there was much more important.

It's not easy in the lower ranks of tennis, playing for tiny prize pots that go directly into travel and equipment costs, and for minuscule ranking-point opportunities. Often, it can break a player down physically and, even scarier, mentally (check out Akira Santillan's meltdown).

But, through the grind, every once in a while, there's a moment that can propel a player forward. Hemery already responded to the physical victory over Galarneau well with his wins over Fratangelo and Bergs.

We will now have to wait and see where Hemery goes from here. Will this be the catalyst that helps find Hemery back within the top 200? Or merely a good story for the week, just another story Hemery can tell about a career that hasn't gone as planned?

We'll find out in the coming months. But this is certainly a step in the right direction.

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: An All-American Showdown at Wimbledon

The Wimbledon draws have come out and they're full of exciting matchups that will have tennis fans glued to the action. However, the first-round matchup that excited me the most has to be a battle of Americans: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima.

Seed vs qualifier. One of the players who used to be considered the future of American tennis vs someone who is currently seen as part of the future of American tennis. A battle of players who can impose themselves from the baseline and hit their spots on-serve.

How will this matchup play out? Who will come out on top? Read on for my thoughts!

No. 31 seed Taylor Fritz is certainly grateful that this match is happening at all. The 23 year-old American suffered a massive injury during Roland Garros, tearing his meniscus during his second round Roland Garros match against Dominik Koepfer. The injury was so severe that he had to have a wheelchair take him off the court. Fritz even needed surgery, but somehow has found the strength and willpower to find a way to get ready for the meeting.

Fritz's health is certainly no guarantee. But, if he's in the draw, I'm going to assume he's healthy enough to at least compete at a good level. And if that's the case, then he certainly will present a massive challenge to Nakashima.

Fritz has won 1 ATP Tour title in his career and he lifted that winner's trophy on the grass of Eastbourne. In 2019, Fritz beat fellow American Sam Querrey in the final 6-3, 6-4.

After the match, Fritz told the ATP, "It's so amazing. I almost can't even believe it. I'm still trying to take it in...I really hope that I can continue on and progress the way Andy (Roddick) did and follow in his footsteps."

Fritz clearly saw the last Eastbourne champion from the United States, Andy Roddick, as a role model for his grass-court career.

In that Eastbourne event, Fritz served really well. He won at least 75% of his first-serve points in all 5 matches he played in the event. From the quarterfinals onwards, Fritz was only broken once. In the final against Querrey, Fritz won 89% of his first-serve points, facing only 1 break point, and he didn't get broken in that final.

However, at Wimbledon, Fritz has only made the 2nd round a couple times in his 4 appearances in the main draw. So, why has this been the case?

On the positive side, as mentioned before, Fritz's first serve is a huge weapon on faster surfaces, and is an area of his game where he's rapidly improved. Fritz's groundstrokes also are flatter and can really cut through the court on grass.

On the other hand, at times, it feels like the Fritz's backswings are little too far back for the quicker grass surface and he doesn't have an effective, low-skidding backhand slice that can do so much damage on the grass. In addition, Fritz isn't totally comfortable at the net.

So, there are aspects of Fritz's game that work supremely well on the grass, while there are other aspects that cause some concern. I guess that partially explains why, at times when he's able to play to his strengths on grass he can be dominant, while at other times, his weaknesses get exposed.

Perhaps some more time on grass last season and in the lead-up to Wimbledon this season would have been good for Fritz to continue to develop his grass-court game and try to continue to live up to the standard that Andy Roddick has set for American men, but a global pandemic and a fluke injury blew those chances.

On the other side of the net will be qualifier Brandon Nakashima. The 19 year-old American hadn't played a professional match on grass, having only competed in the juniors on grass.

And, in the Challengers leading up to Wimbledon qualifying, Nakashima showed some growing pains. Nakashima went 1-2 in the Challengers preceding Wimbledon qualifying, beat Mario Vilella Martinez and losing to Evgeny Donskoy and Thomas Fabbiano.

While Donskoy and Fabbiano are not the easiest matchups on grass, given the progression that Nakashima has shown, it was a bit disappointing that he lost those matches.

However, Nakashima seemed to put it all together during his time at qualifying in Roehampton.

The American doesn't have the biggest serve, but he hits his spots very well. He won 75% of his first-serve points in all three of his qualifying wins over Aleksander Vukic, Viktor Troicki, and Ernests Gulbis.

Nakashima also took advantage of second-serve returns. In every match Nakashima played in Roehampton, his opponents won 35% or fewer of his second-serve returns and broke 15 times over the course of the tournament.

In addition to his solid serving and returning, there are other aspects of Nakashima's game that work well on grass. Nakashima's groundstrokes are very flat and he hits his targets. Finally, Nakashima has really made it a point to improve his net-game, an aspect of tennis that is particularly important on grass. Nakashima attacks the net with authority and hits razor-sharp volleys.

Nakashima, however, doesn't have the power that would let him hit opponents off the court at times his forehand can get a little bit shaky, and like Fritz, his backhand slice could also use some work.

But, ultimately, Nakashima's qualifying campaign was a massive achievement. It was the first time in his career that he had qualified for a Major and Nakashima was clearly happy with his level of play.

Having had success at Roehampton as a junior, Nakashima explained to the ATP during his qualifying campaign, "It definitely feels pretty good coming back here. I feel comfortable with the courts..."

And, given how he performed, his comfort on the grass was very evident.

***

So, how will this matchup play out?

They've never played in a non-exhibition event, although Fritz leads 2-1 in exhibitions. However, all 3 of those matches were on hard courts and there's really not much to take away from them.

Fritz will have the power advantage from the baseline, but Nakashima is more comfortable at the net and will look to impose himself on Fritz when he can.

In terms of the serve, Fritz's first serve has evolved into one of the best in the game. He won't give Nakashima many opportunities on return and Nakashima will have to be clutch in converting the opportunities given to him.

Fritz's health is certainly the biggest question mark. Will he be ready physically for best-of-five? Will he have enough time on the practice courts to hone his game? How will he respond to not playing a grass-court match in 2 years?

Given Fritz's health concerns and lack of matchplay, it's hard to expect too much from him in this one. And an in-form Nakashima who has already played 6 matches on the grass this season.

For Nakashima, he's inexperienced at the Grand Slam level. He's only played in one Major before and never outside of the United States.

Ultimately, I trust Nakashima to pull through in this match. His improved net game and aggressive attitude will come through for him here and will be the steadier player from the baseline, as a rusty Fritz will spray unforced errors.

It won't be entirely straightforward, but expect Brandon Nakashima to win in 4 sets and set up a 2nd round showdown with fellow American Steve Johnson or Dennis Novak!

Men's US Open Draw Thoughts

Well, we didn't know if this time would come. Back in March, everything on the tennis calendar was in doubt and it looked like the coronavirus pandemic might just take away the tennis season. But, we've made it here and the main draws for the women's and men's US Open have been released!

In this article, I examine the men's US Open draw, giving my thoughts and some predictions. I totally expect half of my semifinalists to be out by the third round.

That's how these things work.

Note: The full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Top Seeds Fall Early

This is probably common sense, but I would feel foolish not putting it in here. With the amount of time off for the coronavirus pandemic, and everyone's preparation for the US Open being different, it's very hard to judge form coming into this tournament. A single tournament ("Cincinnati") surely did not give us all of the details needed to judge players' forms.

So, this means that top seeds can vulnerable, especially those that have tough draws early. Despite success in Cincinnati this week, No. 8 Roberto Bautista Agut has to play the brick wall, Tennys Sandgren, in the first round. No. 7 seed David Goffin has to play Reilly Opelka in the first round. 

If these top 8 seeds are not playing at a high level early on, they could easily fall in these first round encounters, or in the subsequent round or two if they face a dangerous opponent. It's very hard to say, however, whether or not this will occur.

2. A Lot of Wild Cards Make it Past the First Round

A few of the wild cards for the US Open have favorable draws. (Note: this is the original wild card list). The draws for the wild cards in the first round are quite good. 

Michael Mmoh takes on Joao Sousa in the first round. Joao Sousa has been out-of-form and is vulnerable for the upset. Mitchell Krueger gets Pedro Sousa as his first round opponent. Pedro Sousa is a clay courter who has not played on hard courts much this season at all and retired from his last exhibition match with an injury.

Ulises Blanch is one of my favorite under-the-radar players. Has a massive serve and forehand and can overwhelm opponents with pace. He takes on Cristian Garin in the first round. Garin is best on clay and has a 1-6 record on hard courts this year. Blanch can certainly cause an upset. A potential second round matchup against Mikhail Kukushkin (who plays Attila Balazs in the first round) would be tough, but not the most difficult opponent he could have faced.

Brandon Nakashima is one of the most heralded young Americans and he has a winnable first round match against Paolo Lorenzi. Lorenzi was starting to look his age in the exhibition events I saw him play during the pandemic and Nakashima has a big advantage in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

JJ Wolf has Guido Pella in the first round, a player who has had to quarantine due to his trainer getting COVID-19. He hasn't spent much time recently on the practice court, a huge disadvantage with the the best-of-five format at the US Open. Wolf has a realistic chance to make the second round too, with a potential matchup against Roberto Carballes Baena or Feliciano Lopez. Carballes Baena is by-far best on clay and Lopez is 38 years-old and who knows if his fitness is at a level where he can win consecutive best-of-five matches at this point in his career.

Finally, Maxime Cressy, one of the most controversial players from the ATP Challenger Tour,  has a favorable first round draw against Josef Kovalik. Kovalik is a clay courter who has barely played on hard courts all season. This is a perfect chance for Cressy to frustrate Kovalik with his huge serve-and-volley game. A win would also most likely give Cressy a chance to see how his game measures up against young ATP star Stefanos Tsitsipas in the second round. 

That would be fun.

3. Stefanos Tsitsipas Makes a Second Major Semifinal

I think that the draw sets up really well for Tsitsipas to make the semifinals. A first rounder against Albert Ramos-Vinolas, who lost all four exhibition matches during the pandemic (on clay) and is yet to win a set in two meetings with Tsitsipas is not threatening to the Greek.

It would seem that Tsitsipas is getting more comfortable playing big servers. His time competing against players like Anderson, Isner, Opelka, and Raonic will serve him well against (potentially) Cressy in the second round. Cressy might get under Tsitsipas' skin with his antics, but Tsitsipas will get enough returns and passing shots to give the American fits.

Borna Coric is the seed in his mini-section. Coric had coronavirus, so who knows how his body will react to the best-of-five format. His results in general (exhibition and "Cincinnati") have not been promising post-coronavirus. In addition, he doesn't really have anything in his game to hurt Tsitsipas with.

The top seeds in the other section are Cristian Garin and Dusan Lajovic. Garin, as I've mentioned, is best on clay and I think has a real shot to lose to Blanch in the first round. Lajovic had a lot of success earlier this year at ATP Cup and the Australian Open, but has struggled mightily lately. Dating back to Lajovic's loss to Soon-woo Kwon in Acapulco, including exhibitions, Lajovic has lost his last seven matches. I don't have confidence in him to make a run right now. 

A player like Jordan Thompson could make Tsitsipas play a physical match in the round of 16, but I believe that Tsitsipas would eventually overpower him.

In the quarterfinals, it would potentially be a matchup with Alexander Zverev. I'm not convinced, with Zverev's serving woes, that he could even make it to the last eight with Tsitsipas. Other seeded players on the other side of the quarter include Diego Schwartzman, who wasn't great in Cincinnati, and Hubert Hurkacz, who's been struggling to find his game recently, and Adrian Mannarino, who looked very rusty in his loss to Millman at the Western & Southern Open.

I feel very confident thinking that Tsitsipas will be a semifinalist at the US Open, taking another big step in his blooming career.

4. Novak Djokovic Wins Another US Open

Djokovic has done it three times before and without Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the draw,  I feel confident that Djokovic can win a fourth US Open. Yes, the neck could become a concern, but Djokovic has looked very impressive at the Western & Southern Open since that first match against Ricardas Berankis.

The draw sets up very well for Djokovic. Thiem and Medvedev are on the other half and the seeded opponent in his mini-section is Jan-Lennard Struff, who Djokovic just beat comfortably in "Cincinnati". Djokovic could play John Isner in the fourth round, but Djokovic's game is centered around his return and Isner was a little below his normal level in "Cincinnati". 

The top-eight seed in his section, David Goffin, has (as I mentioned before) a brutal first round matchup against Reilly Opelka and doesn't have the game to outduel Djokovic from the baseline.

Stefanos Tsitsipas in the quarterfinals would be very tough, but if Djokovic can make the semifinals, it would mean he is locked-in and I can't see Djokovic losing to Tsitsipas in the best-of-five format. Djokovic would eventually force too many errors from the Tsitsipas racquet.

In a final against Medvedev or Thiem, Djokovic would be able to outlast either, much like he did against Thiem in the Australian Open final earlier this season.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Roberto Bautista Agut vs Tennys Sandgren

We are going to see some fantastic baseline play in this one. Maybe it's my preference for baseliners compared to big-servers, but I am fascinated to see what happens in this one. Will Bautista Agut's long week at the Western & Southern Open affect his play in New York? He's certainly looked impenetrable from the baseline this past week. 

Sandgren made the second major quarterfinal of his career at the Australian Open this year. He's so hard for opponents to hit through and can counterpunch at such a high level. It will take a lot for either guy to end points and so it could really be a battle of fitness out there between Bautista Agut and Sandgren.

Who will be able to get on top of points? What creative ways will these guys come up with to get an edge in this match? How will these guys hold up physically in their first best-of-five match following the hiatus? 

I can't wait to watch and see! My prediction would be Bautista Agut in 5.

Walking "Byes"

I'm hesitant to add to this section, just because following the time off, so much is up-in-the-air. But, I have a couple players who I just can't see being a threat in their first round matches.

1.  Go Soeda

Go Soeda takes on Matteo Berrettini in the first round. He should provide very little resistance against Berrettini. Soeda hasn't played a single match, exhibition or otherwise, since the beginning of March, where he lost in straight sets to Emilio Gomez. Now, rusty and playing in the best-of-five format, it seems like this should be about as easy as could be for last year's semifinalist Berrettini.

Soeda wouldn't win regardless, but he would have put up more of a fight before the pandemic than he should now.

2. Hugo Dellien

Hugo Dellien was also involved in the coronavirus issue that Pella also faced. Dellien is a clay courter who is not great on hard courts to begin with and has last played a match (exhibition or not) in March.

Combine that with his matchup against Marton Fucsovics, a player who looked fantastic at the Western & Southern Open, and it's looking like this should be a beatdown.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Krajinovic in 4

Tsitsipas over Zverev in 3

Medvedev over Berrettini in 5

Raonic over Thiem in 4

Semifinals

Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 4

Medvedev over Raonic in 4

Final

Djokovic over Medvedev in 5

Brandon Nakashima Not Letting Pandemic Slow Him Down

Brandon Nakashima was having the season of his young career. The 18 year-old American started the year at World No. 367 and was already up to World No. 220. Nakashima's 147-spot rise in less than three months was already approaching how far he climbed up the rankings during the 2019 season. In 2019, Nakashima went from World No. 527 to World No. 367.

Nakashima had beaten some very good competition during this time. In 2020 alone, Nakashima has taken down players such as Ryan Harrison, Bernard Tomic, Jiri Vesely, and Cameron Norrie.

Then, the coronavirus pandemic shut down the world. It would certainly be understandable if Nakashima got down on himself due to the timing of the pandemic. Here he was in the midst of his breakthrough and a nearly unprecedented viral outbreak brought his momentum to a halt. Would the American be able to sustain his high quality of play when tennis resumed?

Well, based on how he has played during exhibition events that he has competed in during the pandemic, the answer to that question is yes. Combining his matches during the Matchplay 120 and U.S. Men's Pro Tennis Series exhibitions, Nakashima is currently 7-0. He has a 14-1 record in sets played.

Nakashima has played and taken down two top 65 players during this time in Steve Johnson and Sam Querrey. Last night, Querrey took the first set against Nakashima and had three break points on the Nakashima serve in his first service game of the second set. Yet, Nakashima did not panic, held, and then eventually took the match 4-6, 6-3, 6-3.

So, what makes Nakashima's game so tough to beat? The American has good power on both his serve and groundstrokes. Yet, it rarely feels like he is overhitting, as Nakashima has a high level of control over his game. Nakashima's backhand especially cuts through the court so well, making it very tough for opponents to handle.

Nakashima's return game is also very solid. He has not been phased by big servers such as Querrey, Vesely, or Martin Redlicki. Nakashima truly does not have many weaknesses in his game.

Yet, that doesn't mean that Nakashima is a perfect tennis player. For starters, I would love to see the American move to the net behind his powerful groundstrokes. Perhaps he isn't totally comfortable at the net yet, but it would be great to see him move forward more.

In addition, it would be great to see Nakashima diversify what surfaces he is playing on. If I am reading this right, it looks like the American has never played a professional match off of a hard court in his career, so far.

As so much of professional tennis takes places off of hard courts, it is very important that Nakashima gets more experience on clay courts especially. While I'm confident he would have at least played the United States green clay court Challengers and Roland Garros qualifying if this was a normal season, it is still a noticeable gap on his resume. 

Point construction on clay, and grass for that matter, is much different than on a hard court and he will have to get used to different styles of play at the professional level. In addition, clay is a more physical surface than hard, so that will also be an adjustment for Nakashima at the professional level.

Yet, I can't help but be excited about Nakashima's future on the ATP Tour and the recent exhibition events have only added to my enthusiasm. The fact that Nakashima was able to easily pick up where he left off and dismantle opponents is a testament to both his talent and the work he put in during the early portion of the pandemic where exhibitions weren't possible for most of the world.

This smooth transition is especially prominent when one sees other pros struggle with consistency in their return to tennis.

But, the future isn't certain. Both in terms of where Nakashima will go from here and in terms of pro tennis as a sport. Will Nakashima be able to play qualifying or receive a wild card into the US Open? Will the US Open even happen at all? Who knows.

Yet, out of every young prospect outside of the top 100, I truly believe none have as high of a ceiling as Brandon Nakashima.

It's up to Nakashima whether or not he lives up to his potential.

Reviewing the Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro

COVID-19 has created massive problems throughout the world, including the cancellation of tennis through July 13th (currently). The Mutua Madrid Open decided that, instead of cancelling the tournament altogether, they would hold a virtual tournament instead of the regular in-person clay court event.

While not ideal by any means, with the surge in popularity of esports, this seemed like a good way for tennis to enter into the gaming sphere. The tournament decided that Tennis World Tour would be the video game of choice and playstation to be the game console used.

With 150,000 euros at stake (with at least some of that total expected to go to a donation) and 50,000 additional euros set aside exclusively for donations, the stakes were high for the 32 players participating.

The tournament was still gender-separated with 16 ATP players and 16 WTA players parsed into groups of 4 for dueling round robin tournaments. In the round robin stage, the players played to 3, with at tiebreak at 3-3. There was also a charity tournament occurring simultaneously.

For the main tournaments, after the round robin, there would be a traditional quarterfinal, knock out-style setup. In the knock out stages of the tournament, a full set of virtual tennis was played to determine a winner. Kiki Bertens and Andy Murray ended up winning the WTA and ATP virtual titles, respectively.

So, how successful was the tournament? Could we see a wave of similar tournaments, even when the regular tours return? Let's dive in.

Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro Review

The tournament started off on the wrong foot with the withdrawal of Gael Monfils (whose spot was taken by Benoit Paire) due to an issue with the rights to stream his virtual matches.

Tennis journalist Matthew Willis made the point that the virtual tournament was exclusive to Facebook and Monfils was affiliated with Twitch, another streaming platform. The streaming on Facebook part is weird to Willis, who has showcased how much more popular Twitch is for streaming.

There were more withdrawals during the tournament too. The game itself was a laggy disaster (more on that later), and during the round robin stage of the men's tournament, Dominic Thiem and Karen Khachanov withdrew because of technical issues, giving opponents 3-0 wins.

Even in the charity tournament taking place alongside the main tournament, technical issues for Rafael Nadal and Donna Vekic forced the cancellation of that match.

If Tennis World Tour is the best video game that tennis has, then the future of video game play in the sport is in huge trouble. Willis showcased the glitchy, terrible graphics that almost certainly turned viewers off from the game.

Then, in the men's semifinals, when Andy Murray took on Diego Schwartzman, it was as tennis journalist Stuart Fraser reported Murray saying, "...a disaster." Technical difficulties marred the match and the players ultimately decided that Murray should advance to the final.

It was almost comical how poorly the tournament was working out. In the semifinals of a virtual tournament, the players can barely even play due to technical issues. If I'm being frank, it was a total embarrassment for the tournament and reflected poorly on the sport's ability to put together a solid virtual tournament.

Personally, when I was watching the quarterfinal matchup between Bianca Andreescu and Sorana Cirstea, a match which Cirstea eventually won in a tiebreak, there was at least one occasion that I can remember where a player served a let, but was inexplicably given the point. With as seriously as the virtual tournament was taking itself, even such a seemingly minor problem during play de-legitimizes the competition.

That's not to say that the organizers weren't trying their hardest. It was clear that Madrid tournament director Feliciano Lopez and the rest of the team at Madrid were trying their best to put on the best event possible.

The problem for the Mutua Madrid Open Virtual Pro was that the the game itself felt deficient in someway. The graphics felt like they were from 10 or 15 years ago, as opposed to the modern day video games we are used to.

Tennis as sport might also just not be very well-suited to video games in general, at least serious video games trying to realistically replicate the action on the court. Watching the Virtual Pro, it felt like so much was missing. The cool angles and spins that players put on the ball, the trick shots, even the interaction between players and their boxes. All gone.

Instead, we got a glitchy, laggy, bland version of tennis that was a massive disappointment. The fun of NHL, FIFA, NBA2K, and Madden was replaced with this lame game.

A charity tournament featuring the Serena Williams Naomi Osaka, and Maria Sharapova (along with other tennis players and celebrities) is using Mario Tennis Aces as their game of choice. While that tournament, officially named the "Stay at Home Slam", is also using Facebook to stream,  there is a key difference. The video game of choice is much better suited for a virtual tennis event meant to draw in fans.

Mario games are more about having fun than having serious, realistic competition. And perhaps that was the Virtual Pro's problem, they were so intent on having pros in the game itself that they forgot that a less serious video game like Mario Tennis Aces would actually be more fun to play and watch.

Let's be honest, no video game is going to realistically mimic the Nadal topspin forehand on clay.

However, a word of caution for the "Stay at Home Slam": the tournament is using John McEnroe along with Justine Ezarik for commentary. I believe that having official commentary was a very poor choice for the Virtual Pro. The commentary was unnecessary and took away from the players' own commentary. Yet another way the tournament was taking itself too seriously.

I don't mean for this to be a post where I just crap all over the virtual tournament. However, if we are to have video game tennis tournaments in the future, it's important to learn from past mistakes and try to provide the best viewer experience possible.

I appreciate the Mutua Madrid Open stepping up to the plate and essentially being the guinea pig for quarantine virtual content. Future tournaments can take what happened at the Virtual Pro and hopefully put together a better product.

Ball Kid Reform in the Aftermath of COVID-19

As COVID-19 wreaks havoc across the world, I thought about what good, if any, could possibly come out of this terrible pandemic. Coronavirus has brought much of the world to a halt, so there's plenty of time to think about tennis reform.

Before Indian Wells was cancelled, the plan was for ball kids to not handle the towels (towels would be on chairs) and to wear gloves while performing their duties on court. The question, then, that I have is: Why has it taken a global pandemic for this type of reform to be fully brought to the forefront of those in charge of tennis?

Even if we didn't have highly contagious, dangerous disease out there, what has stopped the tennis authorities from implementing such a change earlier?

At the Next Gen Finals event for the ATP, towel racks were placed on court so that ball kids would not have to touch the players' sweaty towels. Sure, it might take an extra second or two for the player to walk to the towel rack, but it is certainly worth it.

Besides sweat, almost certainly the players' hair and skin cells were smeared across those towels. And if a player was sick, the ball kids were at especially high risk.

The reception of the towel rack wasn't outstanding. According to The Telegraph's Charlie Eccleshare, Stefanos Tsitsipas stated, "it's the ball kids' job to provide them." This was when Tsitsipas was in the Next Gen Finals in 2018, so he might have evolved his view since then. But regardless, it shouldn't be the ball kids' job to hand players' a dirty towel. Pandemic or not.

Something interesting in Indian Wells' plans was the introduction of gloves. And it makes sense, right? Even if not touching the towels, the ball kids still have to touch the balls themselves. The same balls that the sweaty players hold before they serve and that smash into the asphalt/clay/grass many, many times throughout the match.

Not to mention that if a ball goes into the stands and a fan throws the ball back, that fan might also not be feeling well. So, it makes sense, at least to me, that ball kids should be heavily encouraged to wear gloves, no matter the state of public health around the world.

Perhaps I sound like I'm being hypersensitive given the state of the pandemic, but momentum has been building for ball kid reform for quite some time, with Fernando Verdasco's October 2018 treatment of a ball kid providing momentum for positive change. It should never be forgotten that ball kids are worthy of the same respect given to others in the tennis universe.

Due to coronavirus, July 13th is the soonest we will see tennis, as of now. And so many of us are eager to get back to the court as quickly as possible. But, when we do get back, let's not forget about the innovations that Indian Wells showed us just prior to its cancellation.

Ball kids are very important in the game of tennis in the sense that they keep the flow of the game working really well. Instead of tennis being a start-stop process, as players collect balls from around the court, ball kids keep the pace of play high.

So, let's start showing these invaluable members of the tennis community the respect they deserve, even if we have to delay the match a couple seconds so a player can towel himself/herself off.

Because without the ball kids, matches would be going a lot slower.

So, I'm imploring the ATP, WTA, and ITF: the COVID-19 pandemic is bad enough, let's see if we can get a little bit of good out of a terrible situation.

And ball kid reform as described in this post would be a good thing for the game.

Thoughts Regarding Tennis and COVID-19

So, this blog post is just as much as about myself working through issues related to tennis and coronavirus as much as it is about trying to provide clarity for others. Quite frankly, coronavirus has wrecked havoc to the tennis season. But, at this point, tennis is the very least of the vast, vast majority of the world's concerns.

COVID-19

I'm not an infectious disease, so I won't pretend to be an expert, but this is a good link for learning the very basics about coronavirus (specifically COVID-19) if you don't already know the specifics. Essentially, COVID-19 is a contagious disease that started in Wuhan, China, late last year. The main symptoms of COVID-19 are the patient having a fever, being tired, and having a cough that is dry. The link above answers many of the other questions you have about this strain of coronavirus and, rather than repeat their answers here, it's better to look at the Q&A if you want to learn more.

Impact on ATP, WTA, and ITF

Honestly, the impact on tennis really isn't important at this point, but this is a tennis blog and so I will break it down. The first major domino to fall was the cancellation of the outdoors hard court BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Indian Wells is a Masters 1000 for men and Premier Mandatory for women, so it's right below the ATP and WTA Finals events in terms of importance. From the perspective of an American, Indian Wells was one of the first American major events to be postponed (or cancelled), so this came as a shock.

It also came as a shock to the players, where some vented on Twitter for being out of the loop and finding out on the social media platform instead of from their governing body (WTA or ATP) directly. It's understandable that the tours would be scrambling, but it can certainly be frustrating, from the players' point of view, if they aren't getting information about the sport that they rely on for their livelihood in a timely manner.

Indian Wells was technically postponed, so there's a chance that it is played later this year. But, given the French Open's move (which I will discuss later), it seems less likely now. But, in a time like this, who knows.

March 12th was a busy day for tennis postponements/cancellations. The ITF postponed events until April 20th, at the earliest. The ITF is involved in events like Futures tournaments, Fed Cup, and Davis Cup. Therefore, anything within those areas are postponed.

Also on March 12th, the Miami Open was cancelled until 2021. Miami, like Indian Wells, is a Masters 1000 event for the ATP and Premier Mandatory for the WTA, so this was another major cancellation. The sunshine swing was officially over, at least at this point.

On this same date, the ATP announced a six week hiatus from the tour due to COVID-19. There are many tournaments affected by this ruling across the United States and Europe. This ruling also affects the ATP Challenger Tour, which is under the ATP's jurisdiction. The Challenger Tour was suspended, which included the tournaments currently being played in Potchefstroom and Nur-Sultan.

The WTA took a more incremental approach to the postponement/cancellation dilemma. On March 12th, The WTA stated that the Miami Open and the Volvo Car Open (Charleston green clay event) would not be happening. Then, later in the day on March 12th, the WTA cancelled Challenger in Guadalajara during the second week of Indian Wells and the International event set to start on April 6th in Bogota.

Finally, on March 16th, the WTA suspended the entire tour until May 2nd. This means that the indoor clay tournament in Stuttgart, and the outdoor clay events in Istanbul and Prague wouldn't occur. This stoppage was set a little longer than the ATP's, but at least I presume that the extension of the ATP hiatus would have been extended to at least as long as the WTA's.


Update: As reported by Gaspar Ribeiro Lanca, the ATP, WTA, and ITF announced that tennis is called off until June 7th. A freeze in the rankings will occur during this time.

Here is the updated list of tournaments that won't be played due to COVID-19.

French Open

The French Open, one of tennis' four major tournaments, announced on March 17th that the tournament would be moved to the back half of September through the beginning of October, as opposed to its usual late May through early June dates.

 This spins the tennis calendar on its head much more so than before. As tennis journalist Jose Morgado points out, there are many ATP and WTA events that were supposed to be played during the French Open, it seems unilaterally, decided to change their dates. 

There was confusion all around, whether it be the ATP's Player's Council, per Morgado, or even the WTA's head Steve Simon, as tennis journalist Christopher Clarey points out. It seems that the French Open's move was a total shock for many involved.

Morgado also makes the good point that the US Open ends six days before Roland Garros! The logistics of having a slam in such close proximity is, let's be honest, a nightmare. The US Open, given their statement, are clearly not happy with the French Open, either.

But, at the same time, former tennis player Mark Petchey has provided good perspective on the matter, stating that the ability to still have the major and make such massive amounts of money in such a time of crisis and instability in the world. 

It's certainly true that getting to play all four majors this year, even if it's inconvenient and some people in the world would have to make sacrifices. But, in the time of a pandemic, everyone isn't going to be able to get their way completely. It's important to just accept that, even if the French Open is coming off selfishly in this manner.

Overall

However, the economic impact of cancelling so much tennis is huge for players and others who make their money from tennis are suffering greatly right now. Even for players that were planning on playing or qualifying for Indian Wells or Miami, that was a big opportunity to make a lot of money that could fund much of the rest of the year and get an immediate boost in the rankings. For players planning on playing ITF events and Challengers, and tournaments workers who were relying on these tournaments to make a living, this crisis is even more of a disaster.

This certainly feels like a bleak time in the world's history and this feeling is certainly a reality. Kirsten Flipkens' sentiment in this tweet from March 15th is certainly a good way of looking at this world crisis.

Anything Positive?

To bring a small breath of positivity in this time, I want to state that I was very excited to see that Tsvetana Pironokva is coming back to the WTA Tour! She has been gone from the WTA due to having a child and is ready to see if she can reach new heights on the WTA Tour, having gotten as high as No. 31 in the World. Pironkova made the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010, beating Venus Williams in straight sets in the quarterfinals before a semifinal loss to Vera Zvonareva.

It's going to be great to see Pironkova back out on the tennis court. Hopefully we can all band together and get through this world health crisis and we can see her, and every other professional tennis player, on court soon.

Stay safe, y'all!

About the US Open Final

I wanted to use this space in my blog as a post-mortem of sorts on the US Open final and the US Open more generally. I will then look have a quick look to the rest of the season on the ATP Tour for Nadal and Medvedev. There were lots of different storylines and levels of intrigue that came with both the players involved and the actual play on the court that I want to try to untangle for myself, more than anyone else.

Before this North American hard court season, many tennis fans knew Daniil Medvedev more for a racist incident, throwing coins at a chair umpire, and telling off Stefanos Tsitsipas than for what he could produce on the court. The rapid development of his game was partially obscured by these incidents, but also by other young breakthrough, such as Denis Shapovalov beating Rafael Nadal in Montreal 2017 and Stefanos Tsitsipas defeating at the Australian Open 2019.

Medvedev patiently waited for his turn in the spotlight. He wasn't putting up bad results by any means. He had won his first three ATP Tour titles in 2018, including a 500 event, and won his fourth title in February of this year. Stefanos Tsitsipas still hasn't won above a 250 yet, but because he got that big win over Federer at the Australian Open on his ways to the semifinals, people looked at him differently.

At Wimbledon, Medvedev lost a third round match to David Goffin 7-5 in the fifth. Medvedev was up two sets to one and was up a break in the fifth set. With a round of 16 matchup against the mercurial Fernando Verdasco next, this seemed like a lost opportunity for Medvedev. That elusive slam quarterfinal slipped out of Daniil's grasps. Now, despite having lost 6-4 in the final to Nadal, the story is quite different.

Tennis fans knew from the way he battled Novak Djokovic in a very physical four-set match at the Australian Open this year that Medvedev played a physical style, but I don't suspect many (myself included) realized just what great shape he had gotten himself in. An ESPN graphic last night showed that Medvedev had never won a five-set match in his life. So, it seems almost like an oxymoron to proclaim what great shape he is in, given that he has never summited the hardest physical test in the sport. However, having watched him the past few weeks, I can't help but feel that way.

Since his first match in Washington on July 30th, Medvedev has played 23 matches of tennis.  That's 60 sets of tennis. He's won 20 of those matches and 48 of those sets, taking home a Masters 1000 title and runner-up trophies at another Masters 1000 and a 500 event. The US Open was by far the most demanding of him, only winning two of his seven matches in straight sets, and playing a total of 27 sets. Medvedev was cramping up against Dellien, down a set and a break against Koepfer, and down two sets and a break against one of the greatest fighters in the history of the game, Rafael Nadal.

That's damn impressive.

Speaking of Nadal, of course I want to devote a lot of space to him. I have to admit I am a Federer fan, but it's hard not to respect a player like Nadal. Nadal is sometimes looked at as if he is weak on grass and hard courts. Yet, that could not be further from the case. The guy has two Wimbledon titles and, now, five hard court majors. Take out the French Open and that's still the resume of an all-time great.

Nadal won two of those majors, the 2017 US Open and 2019 US Open, after the age of 30. It's not like he's only winning these titles off of clay when he's young. At the 2017 US Open, Nadal dropped three sets over the course of the entire tournament, and was never pushed to five sets. This year, including a withdrawal, Nadal was pushed to five sets once, accounting for two of his three sets lost. And losing two sets to Medvedev in this form is nothing to be ashamed of.

Despite an extensive injury history, Nadal's major results this year of an Australian Open final (loss to Djokovic), French Open title, Wimbledon semifinal (loss to Federer), and US Open title is unbelievable. Nadal's been injured much more than Federer over the course of his career, so despite the difference in age, it's just as impressive what Nadal is doing at 33 as what Federer is doing at 37/38. But, I'm going to try to refrain from making comparisons with Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, because it's better to just sit back and watch the incredible things that these three players can do.

Nadal's results aren't confined to majors, either, not by any means. Since turning 31, Nadal has also won five Masters 1000 titles, including two on hard courts. He's won a couple 500 events too, including a hard court win at the China Open. In other words, Nadal has been impressive both at the majors and at regular tour events, and not just on clay.

Everything that's to say about Nadal has already been said, so I'll leave my gushing of his career at that.

So, what about the match specifically yesterday? As Nadal was on his way of going up two sets to love, I thought that it might be in his best interest to do what won him his match against Djokovic in Cincinnati, and red-line. I felt like Nadal was wearing Medvedev down and that Medvedev was partially doing this to himself with his poor court positioning, frequently putting himself well behind the baseline.

Now, this isn't to say that Medvedev can't get depth on the ball from such a position. One of the most remarkable things that continued to surprise me during his summer run, until I came to expect it, was the depth Medvedev was able to hit from tough positions on the court. It was amazing how consistently Medvedev was able to get the ball deep from areas that you would expect him to hit short balls. Of course this type of court positioning did open up Medvedev to do more running, as Nadal was able to pull him around the court, but until the last ball was played, it felt that even if Medvedev's fuel tank was around empty, that he was always right near a gas station.

Nadal looked wearier and wearier as the match went on, but at the age of 33, it is absolutely remarkable what great shape he was in. Playing a 23 year-old didn't phase Nadal, he is still one of the most fit players on tour. The match yesterday lasted nearly five hours, yet Nadal was still chasing balls down, making ridiculous defensive plays when necessary, and covering the court so well that even though you knew Nadal was exhausted, you also knew there was no way his body was going to give out anytime soon. What helped make this match special was that both players were visibly exhausted, yet forged on.

Down two sets and a break against Nadal is usually curtains, but the mental and physical resolve that Medvedev showed to come back and win those two sets is why it's hard to take his five-set record that seriously at this point. No, he hasn't won a five set match, but as crazy as it is to say, that doesn't matter. How he almost came back from two breaks down in the fifth, having a break point to get back to five all, is the cherry on top in terms of seeing him as more fit than almost any other player on tour. Don't forget about how much tennis he's played before this.

The match, besides the physical challenges, featured some awesome tennis. The angles, variety, rally tolerance, and precision that both players showed was world-class and an absolute treat to watch. There's drama because a match is going on for a long time and drama because both players are at an extremely high level and it's exciting to see who's tennis comes out on top. This match was both of those. Again, a showing of how best-of-five should never leave the majors.

So, Nadal won his 19th major, putting him one behind Federer for most of all-time. Given the head-to-head, especially with how Nadal is winning more and more majors off of clay, it would be very hard to put Federer above Nadal in terms of the "Greatest of All Time" rankings if Nadal ends up with equal or more majors. However, Federer I think still has a major or two left in him (he was a point away at Wimbledon this year) and Djokovic might end up passing both. But, again, let's stray away from the "Greatest of all Time" debate and look at this more as the "Era Where The Three Best Ever Players Played."

So, how does the rest of the season play out? I don't see Nadal playing much. He's supposed to play Laver Cup, but let's see what happens. Maybe Shanghai and/or Paris, along with the ATP Tour Finals? Medvedev has a packed schedule, but who knows if he will end up playing all of these. He definitely will want to rest more, maybe only playing mandatory events, so he doesn't wear himself out, a la Dominic Thiem in years past.

The season feels over, but it isn't. There's still tournaments to be played, money and points to be won.

But, if the last big memory of the 2019 season is the US Open final, then I'm glad it will be of Nadal and Medvedev battling it out.

ATP Review: Rio de Janeiro, Marseilles, and Delray Beach

This week, instead of previewing a tournament, I am gong to look back on the previous week's tournaments and talk about some of the big headlines that came out of the tournaments. There was three tournaments last week, with first-time winners and the return of an ATP superstar, so there is a lot to talk about!

Rio de Janeiro
The biggest headline of this week in Rio de Janeiro, an ATP 500 event, is that Laslo Djere won the title. It came out that Djere's parents had died, including his father recently,  and so this made the title extra special for Laslo. He beat Auger Aliassime in the Final, who also had a breakout week, in two sets, the second being really tight. Djere beat Thiem this week and Auger Aliassime beat both Fognini and Cuevas, all of which were big wins. This was Djere's first title, and to do it with his parents on his mind and in a 500 level tournament is very impressive. Auger Aliassime is only 18 years old, so he has plenty of time to get that first title.

A big story of this tournament is that the top seeds really struggled. In fact, every seed but the fifth seed, Joao Sousa lost. Of those seven other players, only one managed to even get a set, Nicolas Jarry against Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Thiem, Cecchinato, Jaziri, Schwartzman, Lajovic, and Fognini did not even get a set in their First Round losses. Now, of course, this is not quite as shocking as the stats say. Jaziri is not a clay courter and was playing against a good clay courter in Delbonis. Schwartzman had a long week in Buenos Aires and was also playing a good clay courter in Cuevas. Thiem and Fognini were playing against the eventual champion and runner up, respectively. But, still, not a great showing from the seeds.

Also, I want to shout out Hugo Dellien, he has been working so hard on the ATP Challenger Tour, and finally had his breakthrough this week, making the Quarterfinals of Rio. Also nice to see guys like Bedene and Cuevas starting to show form again, although it was a shame that Bedene got injured.

Marseilles
In Marseilles, an ATP 250 event, top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Mikhael Kuskushkin in two tight sets. This is Tsitsipas' second title, one in indoor conditions in Stockholm, and now here in the indoor conditions of Marseilles. The Final was very tight, and Kukushkin was up a break in the second set, was a point away from the double break, and got two points away when serving for the set, and in the tiebreaker. In the first set, Kukushkin had a game point to send the first set into a tiebreaker before he was broken. Tsitsipas does such a good job, in my opinion, of just hanging in there in matches, staying close, and then taking his opportunities as soon as they come. The margin that Stefanos hits his groundstrokes with is also very impressive.

Kukushkin, before the Final, was extremely impressive. Mikhail played against tough opponents such as Shapovalov, Rublev, and Humbert, but didn't drop a set until the  Final. It was a great week for Mikhael, but also, I think, for Humbert, who proved his game can thrive at the ATP level, making the Semifinals, and fot David Goffin. Goffin had really been stuggling to find his form this year, but didn't drop a set in his two matches until the Semifinals, where he served for the first set, but lost the match to Tsitsipas. Goffin had a very good win over Gilles Simon in the Quarterfinals.

The second seed in the tournament was Borna Coric, but his loss to Humbert in Borna's opening match is not as bad as it initially appears. Humbert can play extraordinary tennis on a hard court, and Coric, in the quick conditions of Marseilles and having not played in a while, was just a little overmatched against Humbert, but I wouldn't worry about Coric because of this loss. Borna will be fine, I think, but just enjoys playing in slower conditions more.

Delray Beach
Delray Beach, an ATP 250 event, saw Radu Albot beat qualifier Daniel Evans in the Final, with Albot winning in a tight third-set tiebreaker, saving three match points. Like Djere, this was Albot's first title. It's interesting that, for both men, this was also their first Final too, so they were able to win despite the nerves. Albot played so well to win this title. He beat very good players in Kyrgios and Johnson, and his double bagel in the second and third set in the Semifinals against McDonald was very impressive. And then, to have the mental fortitude that he had in the Final, coming back from a set down and saving match points, was spectacular. In fact, Albot won every match this week but his first match, in three sets.

However, Evans was also great this week. He had to fight so hard, not only to get through qualifying, having to come back from a set down in his qualifying match, but also in his First Round. He played defending champion and three seed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Evans came back from a set down, and Tiafoe served for the match in the second set, and had a break lead in the third set. Evans also beat very good players, such as Seppi in the Quarterfinals and second set John Isner in the Semifinals, coming back from a set down against Isner too. Evans destroyed a good player in Lloyd Harris in the Round of 16. losing only two games in that match. Evans will win an ATP title soon, I am confident about that.

The one seed was Juan Martin del Potro. This was very exciting news, because del Potro had been out injured for quite some time, and this was his first tournament back. del Potro had a very good first tournament back, winning a couple matches before losing in a tight third-set tiebreaker to McDonald. McDonald had a good week himself, with that win over del Potro highlighting his Semifinals run.


And so, that is a short recap of ATP tennis last week. With two ATP 500 events, in Dubai and Acapulco, and an ATP 250 in Sao Paolo, there will be plenty more ATP action this week. Roger Federer has already won his first match in Dubai, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets, and Rafael Nadal returns to take on Mischa Zverev in the First Round of Acapulco.

ATP Rio de Janeiro Preview

Last week, I decided to preview the ATP event in Buenos Aires. This week, because I love clay court tennis, I decided to preview the ATP event in Rio de Janeiro. This event is bigger than Buenos Aires, with 500 points, as opposed to 250 in Buenos Aires. Therefore, the stakes are high and this is a great chance, given the small number of top players playing, to get a big point haul.

The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.

Let's dive into some draw analysis!

First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.

In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.

In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.

Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.

In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.

Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.

Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.

The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.

Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.

In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.

Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.

Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.

In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.

Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.

I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.

Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.

Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer.  This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.

Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.

Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.

In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals

Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.

In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.

Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.

At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.

Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.

ATP Buenos Aires Preview

I thought for my next post I would give a tournament preview, and since I love clay court tennis, I chose Buenos Aires. This ATP 250 tournament should be a very good one. In last week's South American clay court tournament, Juan Ignacio Londero got his first ever ATP World Tour title, beating Guido Pella in three sets in the Final. Londero played well all week, attacking opponents with his potent forehand, and playing smart clay court tennis. As someone who's watched Londero climb through the rankings, it was great to see. Pella also played an excellent tournament. Guido had three big wins in a row, beating Ramos, Schwartzman, and Cuevas. On a clay court, beating those three in a row is not an easy feat.

This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.

On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.

Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.

First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.

I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.

I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.

Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.

In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.

Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\

The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.

Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.

In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.

Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.

Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.

The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.

I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.

Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.

Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.

The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.

Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.

Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!