This week, instead of previewing a tournament, I am gong to look back on the previous week's tournaments and talk about some of the big headlines that came out of the tournaments. There was three tournaments last week, with first-time winners and the return of an ATP superstar, so there is a lot to talk about!
Rio de Janeiro
The biggest headline of this week in Rio de Janeiro, an ATP 500 event, is that Laslo Djere won the title. It came out that Djere's parents had died, including his father recently, and so this made the title extra special for Laslo. He beat Auger Aliassime in the Final, who also had a breakout week, in two sets, the second being really tight. Djere beat Thiem this week and Auger Aliassime beat both Fognini and Cuevas, all of which were big wins. This was Djere's first title, and to do it with his parents on his mind and in a 500 level tournament is very impressive. Auger Aliassime is only 18 years old, so he has plenty of time to get that first title.
A big story of this tournament is that the top seeds really struggled. In fact, every seed but the fifth seed, Joao Sousa lost. Of those seven other players, only one managed to even get a set, Nicolas Jarry against Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Thiem, Cecchinato, Jaziri, Schwartzman, Lajovic, and Fognini did not even get a set in their First Round losses. Now, of course, this is not quite as shocking as the stats say. Jaziri is not a clay courter and was playing against a good clay courter in Delbonis. Schwartzman had a long week in Buenos Aires and was also playing a good clay courter in Cuevas. Thiem and Fognini were playing against the eventual champion and runner up, respectively. But, still, not a great showing from the seeds.
Also, I want to shout out Hugo Dellien, he has been working so hard on the ATP Challenger Tour, and finally had his breakthrough this week, making the Quarterfinals of Rio. Also nice to see guys like Bedene and Cuevas starting to show form again, although it was a shame that Bedene got injured.
Marseilles
In Marseilles, an ATP 250 event, top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Mikhael Kuskushkin in two tight sets. This is Tsitsipas' second title, one in indoor conditions in Stockholm, and now here in the indoor conditions of Marseilles. The Final was very tight, and Kukushkin was up a break in the second set, was a point away from the double break, and got two points away when serving for the set, and in the tiebreaker. In the first set, Kukushkin had a game point to send the first set into a tiebreaker before he was broken. Tsitsipas does such a good job, in my opinion, of just hanging in there in matches, staying close, and then taking his opportunities as soon as they come. The margin that Stefanos hits his groundstrokes with is also very impressive.
Kukushkin, before the Final, was extremely impressive. Mikhail played against tough opponents such as Shapovalov, Rublev, and Humbert, but didn't drop a set until the Final. It was a great week for Mikhael, but also, I think, for Humbert, who proved his game can thrive at the ATP level, making the Semifinals, and fot David Goffin. Goffin had really been stuggling to find his form this year, but didn't drop a set in his two matches until the Semifinals, where he served for the first set, but lost the match to Tsitsipas. Goffin had a very good win over Gilles Simon in the Quarterfinals.
The second seed in the tournament was Borna Coric, but his loss to Humbert in Borna's opening match is not as bad as it initially appears. Humbert can play extraordinary tennis on a hard court, and Coric, in the quick conditions of Marseilles and having not played in a while, was just a little overmatched against Humbert, but I wouldn't worry about Coric because of this loss. Borna will be fine, I think, but just enjoys playing in slower conditions more.
Delray Beach
Delray Beach, an ATP 250 event, saw Radu Albot beat qualifier Daniel Evans in the Final, with Albot winning in a tight third-set tiebreaker, saving three match points. Like Djere, this was Albot's first title. It's interesting that, for both men, this was also their first Final too, so they were able to win despite the nerves. Albot played so well to win this title. He beat very good players in Kyrgios and Johnson, and his double bagel in the second and third set in the Semifinals against McDonald was very impressive. And then, to have the mental fortitude that he had in the Final, coming back from a set down and saving match points, was spectacular. In fact, Albot won every match this week but his first match, in three sets.
However, Evans was also great this week. He had to fight so hard, not only to get through qualifying, having to come back from a set down in his qualifying match, but also in his First Round. He played defending champion and three seed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Evans came back from a set down, and Tiafoe served for the match in the second set, and had a break lead in the third set. Evans also beat very good players, such as Seppi in the Quarterfinals and second set John Isner in the Semifinals, coming back from a set down against Isner too. Evans destroyed a good player in Lloyd Harris in the Round of 16. losing only two games in that match. Evans will win an ATP title soon, I am confident about that.
The one seed was Juan Martin del Potro. This was very exciting news, because del Potro had been out injured for quite some time, and this was his first tournament back. del Potro had a very good first tournament back, winning a couple matches before losing in a tight third-set tiebreaker to McDonald. McDonald had a good week himself, with that win over del Potro highlighting his Semifinals run.
And so, that is a short recap of ATP tennis last week. With two ATP 500 events, in Dubai and Acapulco, and an ATP 250 in Sao Paolo, there will be plenty more ATP action this week. Roger Federer has already won his first match in Dubai, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets, and Rafael Nadal returns to take on Mischa Zverev in the First Round of Acapulco.
Showing posts with label Rio De Janeiro. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rio De Janeiro. Show all posts
Monday, February 25, 2019
Monday, February 18, 2019
ATP Rio de Janeiro Preview
Last week, I decided to preview the ATP event in Buenos Aires. This week, because I love clay court tennis, I decided to preview the ATP event in Rio de Janeiro. This event is bigger than Buenos Aires, with 500 points, as opposed to 250 in Buenos Aires. Therefore, the stakes are high and this is a great chance, given the small number of top players playing, to get a big point haul.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
Monday, February 26, 2018
Diego Schwartzman Continues To Impress in Rio de Janeiro
Over the past few days, Howard Bryant and I got into a little bit of an argument over this tweet regarding Monfils' match against Diego Schwartzman. Although, in hindsight, it doesn't seem like Bryant was intentionally being disrespectful to Schwartzman, by essentially reprimading Monfils for losing to Schwartzman, a player that previously took Monfils to five sets in the 2015 French Open, it sets the narrative that Schwartzman is some nobody who lacks the the talent that Monfils has.
But, this article is not saying that Monfils is not talented or that Howard Bryant doesn't know what he's talking about. Because both of those wouldn't be correct. Monfils is an extremely talented player and I truly believe, after exchanging tweets with Bryant that he didn't mean to come across as demeaning regarding Schwartzman. Instead, I was inspired by Bryant's tweet, and I want to use this article as a way to honor Schwartzman for his incredible achievements.
There has always been something fascinating, something really extraordinary, about short athletes doing great things. That's why an NBA players like Nate Robinson was so cool to watch, or how spectacular it is to see Drew Brees play the QB position in the supreme manner that he does. And the same principle goes for Diego Schwartzman.
At Diego's height of 5 foot, seven inches, upon first glance, it would not appear that Schwartzman could compete with many modern day tennis players. In today's game, it feels as if big serves and crushing forehands are the only way to play the game, and the variety of the past had been thrown out of the window.
Schwartzman goes against that logic, which is, perhaps, why his game is so refreshing. Now, I'm not saying that he can't serve big or that his forehand is weak. That is far from the case. Schwartzman did hit a couple of aces yesterday and his groundstrokes are very heavy and cause opponents many difficulties. But, what I'm trying to convey is that modern day player, at least in the eyes of the public, is more like John Isner and less like Diego Schwartzman, who also frequently uses variety and endurance in rallies to win his matches.
At least in my eyes, Schwartzman first came onto the scene when he battled Roger Federer in a clay court tournament in Istanbul in 2015. Sure, Schwartzman had been tearing up the clay court Challenger circuit, and had beat players like Alexander Zverev, Thiago Monteiro, and Jerzy Janowicz in his career, but he had yet to sustain a deep run in an ATP Tournament, as he had mostly been grinding through Challenger and Futures tournaments (successfully).
In that Semifinals match with Federer, after not being able to take a set in his two prior matches with Roger, easily took the first set, and played a very close third set, losing 7-5 in the third. It's a match like that, despite the loss, that can prove to a player, in their own mind, that they can compete at the level needed to be successful on the ATP World Tour. And, I have a feeling that this could very well have been the case for Schwartzman.
Over the next year, Schwartzman continued to battle his way through Challenger tournaments and onto the main tour, beating players like Berlocq, Dolgopolov, and Muller. Then, in Istanbul the year following the Federer match, he had his breakthrough. Diego fought hard, winning three set battles over Dzumhur and Delbonis in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals before coming back to beat Grigor Dimitrov in a three setter, which featured a bagel in the third set (although that was partially due to code violations from Grigor, which were partially due to Schwartzman's incredible consistency).
Winning an ATP World Tour title was an amazing feat for Schwartzman, especially given the narrative that short people can't compete at the level necessary to play professional tennis. But, unfortunately due to Dimitrov's code violations, the spotlight was placed too much on Grigor and not enough on Diego. The match was thought of more as "Did you see Grigor Dimitrov melt down?" than "Diego Schwartzman played an incredible match and tournament".
But, that was not the end of the story for Diego. His level continued to rise. Schwartzman continued to win Challengers, and in addition, he made the Final of the ATP World Tour tournament in Antwerp, a tournament in which he beat Pablo Cuevas and David Goffin, before losing in the Final to Richard Gasquet. Schwartzman made the Final of Antwerp again last year, losing a fairly competitive match to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Schwartzman also had impressive wins in 2017 over players like Karen Karen Khachanov, David Ferrer (twice), Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem, and Marin Cilic, along with Lucas Pouille as part of Schwartzman's first run to a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open.
But, still, Schwartzman had one title that was thought of, in the general public, as more of the "Grigor Dimitrov meltdown" match than the "Diego Schwartzman" first title match.
That's why, in addition to Rio being Schwartzman's first ATP World Tour title at the 500 level, this title was so special for Diego. And it wasn't like Schwartzman had an easy road either. Playing guys like Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco on clay are brutal. Verdasco, for instance, had destroyed this week's Buenos Aires champion, and last year's French Open semifinalist, Dominic Thiem, 6-4, 6-0 in a prior round. But, Schwartzman took him out as if it were no problem, losing only five games in a straight set win. In fact, Schwartzman didn't lose a set all tournament. It was a spectacular tournament for Schwartzman and sets up the rest of the season very nicely for him.
I can't help but wonder how far Schwartzman can go. I'm sure pundits will continue to discount him due to his height, but that hasn't stopped him previously and it won't stop him in future tournaments. As I said on tennis twitter yesterday, there is only one player on clay that I don't think Schwartzman can beat, Rafael Nadal. So, with any clay tournament he plays, if Nadal is upset, I give Diego a great chance to win the tournament.
Obviously, this does not mean that I think Schwartzman is the second-favorite after Nadal to win a clay court masters event or the French Open. It just means that I think he has a big shot at it, if Nadal loses. But, I also don't want to discount Schwartzman's credentials on hard court. After all, he did make the Final of Antwerp twice, including a great win over Goffin in 2016, and his Quarterfinals run in the US Open in 2017 once again proved that he isn't a clay court-only type of player. Sure, Diego won't be tearing it up on a grass court, but he is extremely good on hard courts too.
For me, with Diego Schwartzman, the word that comes to mind is "impressive". Given his height, given the modern game where power is valued over anything else, it is so impressive to see Schwartzman's continued good results. Schwartzman can absorb and then redirect the powerful groundstrokes of his opponent better than almost anyone else on tour, and it is a pleasure to watch.
Keep impressing, Diego!
But, this article is not saying that Monfils is not talented or that Howard Bryant doesn't know what he's talking about. Because both of those wouldn't be correct. Monfils is an extremely talented player and I truly believe, after exchanging tweets with Bryant that he didn't mean to come across as demeaning regarding Schwartzman. Instead, I was inspired by Bryant's tweet, and I want to use this article as a way to honor Schwartzman for his incredible achievements.
There has always been something fascinating, something really extraordinary, about short athletes doing great things. That's why an NBA players like Nate Robinson was so cool to watch, or how spectacular it is to see Drew Brees play the QB position in the supreme manner that he does. And the same principle goes for Diego Schwartzman.
At Diego's height of 5 foot, seven inches, upon first glance, it would not appear that Schwartzman could compete with many modern day tennis players. In today's game, it feels as if big serves and crushing forehands are the only way to play the game, and the variety of the past had been thrown out of the window.
Schwartzman goes against that logic, which is, perhaps, why his game is so refreshing. Now, I'm not saying that he can't serve big or that his forehand is weak. That is far from the case. Schwartzman did hit a couple of aces yesterday and his groundstrokes are very heavy and cause opponents many difficulties. But, what I'm trying to convey is that modern day player, at least in the eyes of the public, is more like John Isner and less like Diego Schwartzman, who also frequently uses variety and endurance in rallies to win his matches.
At least in my eyes, Schwartzman first came onto the scene when he battled Roger Federer in a clay court tournament in Istanbul in 2015. Sure, Schwartzman had been tearing up the clay court Challenger circuit, and had beat players like Alexander Zverev, Thiago Monteiro, and Jerzy Janowicz in his career, but he had yet to sustain a deep run in an ATP Tournament, as he had mostly been grinding through Challenger and Futures tournaments (successfully).
In that Semifinals match with Federer, after not being able to take a set in his two prior matches with Roger, easily took the first set, and played a very close third set, losing 7-5 in the third. It's a match like that, despite the loss, that can prove to a player, in their own mind, that they can compete at the level needed to be successful on the ATP World Tour. And, I have a feeling that this could very well have been the case for Schwartzman.
Over the next year, Schwartzman continued to battle his way through Challenger tournaments and onto the main tour, beating players like Berlocq, Dolgopolov, and Muller. Then, in Istanbul the year following the Federer match, he had his breakthrough. Diego fought hard, winning three set battles over Dzumhur and Delbonis in the Quarterfinals and Semifinals before coming back to beat Grigor Dimitrov in a three setter, which featured a bagel in the third set (although that was partially due to code violations from Grigor, which were partially due to Schwartzman's incredible consistency).
Winning an ATP World Tour title was an amazing feat for Schwartzman, especially given the narrative that short people can't compete at the level necessary to play professional tennis. But, unfortunately due to Dimitrov's code violations, the spotlight was placed too much on Grigor and not enough on Diego. The match was thought of more as "Did you see Grigor Dimitrov melt down?" than "Diego Schwartzman played an incredible match and tournament".
But, that was not the end of the story for Diego. His level continued to rise. Schwartzman continued to win Challengers, and in addition, he made the Final of the ATP World Tour tournament in Antwerp, a tournament in which he beat Pablo Cuevas and David Goffin, before losing in the Final to Richard Gasquet. Schwartzman made the Final of Antwerp again last year, losing a fairly competitive match to Jo-Wilfred Tsonga. Schwartzman also had impressive wins in 2017 over players like Karen Karen Khachanov, David Ferrer (twice), Roberto Bautista Agut, Dominic Thiem, and Marin Cilic, along with Lucas Pouille as part of Schwartzman's first run to a Grand Slam quarterfinal at the US Open.
But, still, Schwartzman had one title that was thought of, in the general public, as more of the "Grigor Dimitrov meltdown" match than the "Diego Schwartzman" first title match.
That's why, in addition to Rio being Schwartzman's first ATP World Tour title at the 500 level, this title was so special for Diego. And it wasn't like Schwartzman had an easy road either. Playing guys like Gael Monfils and Fernando Verdasco on clay are brutal. Verdasco, for instance, had destroyed this week's Buenos Aires champion, and last year's French Open semifinalist, Dominic Thiem, 6-4, 6-0 in a prior round. But, Schwartzman took him out as if it were no problem, losing only five games in a straight set win. In fact, Schwartzman didn't lose a set all tournament. It was a spectacular tournament for Schwartzman and sets up the rest of the season very nicely for him.
I can't help but wonder how far Schwartzman can go. I'm sure pundits will continue to discount him due to his height, but that hasn't stopped him previously and it won't stop him in future tournaments. As I said on tennis twitter yesterday, there is only one player on clay that I don't think Schwartzman can beat, Rafael Nadal. So, with any clay tournament he plays, if Nadal is upset, I give Diego a great chance to win the tournament.
Obviously, this does not mean that I think Schwartzman is the second-favorite after Nadal to win a clay court masters event or the French Open. It just means that I think he has a big shot at it, if Nadal loses. But, I also don't want to discount Schwartzman's credentials on hard court. After all, he did make the Final of Antwerp twice, including a great win over Goffin in 2016, and his Quarterfinals run in the US Open in 2017 once again proved that he isn't a clay court-only type of player. Sure, Diego won't be tearing it up on a grass court, but he is extremely good on hard courts too.
For me, with Diego Schwartzman, the word that comes to mind is "impressive". Given his height, given the modern game where power is valued over anything else, it is so impressive to see Schwartzman's continued good results. Schwartzman can absorb and then redirect the powerful groundstrokes of his opponent better than almost anyone else on tour, and it is a pleasure to watch.
Keep impressing, Diego!
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