Three Storylines Emerging from Release of US Open Men's Singles Draw

 The wait is over! The US Open men's singles draw are out! While there are so many different angles that one could take looking at the draw, I think there are three points that stand out amongst the crowd. 

In this article, I will detail three storylines for tennis fans to keep in mind when reviewing the US Open men's singles draw.

1. Alexander Zverev is in Novak Djokovic's Side of the Draw

By far the biggest story going into the draw release was where No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev would fall in the draw. Would he be on No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic's side, or No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev's side?

Zverev has had the best results out of any player in men's tennis since the end of Wimbledon. The German won the Olympic gold medal, beating Djokovic in the semifinals, and then won Cincinnati, taking down  Stefanos Tsitsipas from two-breaks down in the third set of their semifinal match, and then taking down Andrey Rublev with ease in the final.

Zverev won at least 85% of his first-serve points in four of his five matches in Cincinnati and only dropped one set all tournament (to Tsitsipas). In the Olympics he also dropped a singular set, to Djokovic.

While Zverev's success in Cincinnati might have been due to Djokovic's absence, he's full of confidence with two titles since the end of Wimbledon and an 11-match winning streak. Zverev is certainly tougher to face than Tsitsipas, whose return is a major question mark right now.

The fact that Djokovic is scheduled to face Zverev in the semifinals in his quest for the Calendar Slam, instead of Zverev facing Medvedev, is a huge story for the draw. Instead, Medvedev will most likely get either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev in the semifinals. Medvedev is 6-2 against Tsitsipas and 5-1 against Rublev, with both players at a tactical disadvantage against Medvedev.

So, while Djokovic might have to fight it out in a war against red-hot Zverev in the semifinals, Medvedev would play one of two players that he's comfortable against. Yes, Medvedev lost to Rublev in the semifinals of Cincinnati, but the hand-injury certainly played a role in that loss. There's not much Rublev can do  to hurt Medvedev.

In addition, it's very possible that, if Djokovic makes it through Zverev, that he will be more fatigued than Medvedev will be due to what should be a great semifinal against the German.

Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that Zverev probably would have wanted to avoid Djokovic's half as much as Djokovic would have wanted to avoid him.

2. Djokovic's Draw is Very Smooth Until the Semifinals

While I have just ranted about Djokovic getting a tough semifinal assignment, his road getting there is quite straightforward. He starts out the tournament with a qualifier, and while we don't know which qualifier it will be yet, there are no qualifiers in the draw that can seriously challenge Djokovic.

From there, he will play either Tallon Griekspoor or Jan-Lennard Struff. Griekspoor doesn't have the rally tolerance to get close to Djokovic and has nothing to really hurt the Serb with. Struff has a huge serve and a heavy forehand, but Djokovic has won 15 of 16 sets against Struff and the German was very poor in a 2-6, 1-6 loss to Ivashka in Winston-Salem.

In the third round, Djokovic would face off against No. 27 seed David Goffin, Mackenzie McDonald, or Kei Nishikori in the third round. Goffin is completely out-of-form, and McDonald, along with Nishikori, don't do anything that can hurt Djokovic. McDonald's game is tailor-made for Djokovic to neutralize him, and there's a reason Djokovic is 17-2 against Nishikori. In backhand-to-backhand rallies (the backhand being Nishikori's strength), Djokovic will still have the upper hand. Plus, Djokovic can take advantage of the Nishikori second serve.

In Nishikori's last matchup with Djokovic in the quarterfinals of the Olympics, Djokovic won 6-0, 6-2, with Djokovic winning 82% of the points on his serve versus 43% for Nishikori.

In the round of 16, Djokovic would most likely play either Aslan Karatsev, Taylor Fritz, or Alex De Minaur. Aslan Karatsev has cooled down significantly since he beat Djokovic in Belgrade in April and made the semifinals of the Australian Open. Taylor Fritz only got close to Djokovic in the third round of the Australian Open due to Djokovic's abdominal injury. Alex De Minaur makes the most of his talent, but he won't be able to out-grind Djokovic, especially in the best-of-five format.

In the quarterfinals, Djokovic could face off against Hubert Hurkacz or Matteo Berrettini. Djokovic is 2-0 against Hurkacz, having won six of the seven sets they've played, although never on a hard court. Djokovic is 3-0 against Berrettini, having just won the Wimbledon final against him in four sets.

In that Wimbledon final, Djokovic won 79% of his first serves and held Berrettini to 38% second serves won. Berrettini faced 15 break points in that match and was broken six times.

Hurkacz and Berrettini might be able to serve their way into close sets, but Djokovic just has better precision and rally tolerance than both of them. In addition, for Berrettini specifically, Djokovic can target his backhand, especially in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

Look for Djokovic to make the semifinals (and most likely play Zverev) without too many issues.

3. Can Stefanos Tsitsipas Survive Andy Murray?

I feel stupid even writing this, but on social media, this matchup between No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and former US Open champion Andy Murray is gaining a lot of traction.

The truth is: there won't need to much surviving here, as Tsitsipas should trounce Murray and easily advance to the second round.

While Tsitsipas and Murray have never played each other before, does anything, in the best-of-five format, does anyone expect someone with Murray's injury history to be too competitive against a young rising star with the pedigree of Tsitsipas.

In Winston-Salem this past week, Murray won less than 50% of his second-serve points in both of his matches and, against Frances Tiafoe in the second round, he only put 47% of his first serves in play.

For Murray to even be competitive with Tsitsipas, he needs to be making a high percentage of his first serves and needs to be very aggressive with his second serves so that Tsitsipas can't tee off.

With Tsitsipas struggling against big servers, playing someone who doesn't serve huge like Murray seems to be a dream first round opponent.

And even if he does that, at this stage in Murray's career, he doesn't possess the game to force a powerful player like Tsitsipas off of the baseline and make him uncomfortable.

Expect Tsitsipas to beat Murray with ease, losing one set at the absolute most.

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So, what do you think about the storylines mentioned here? Let me know what you think in the comments!

Enjoy the US Open, folks!

Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima: An All-American Showdown at Wimbledon

The Wimbledon draws have come out and they're full of exciting matchups that will have tennis fans glued to the action. However, the first-round matchup that excited me the most has to be a battle of Americans: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon Nakashima.

Seed vs qualifier. One of the players who used to be considered the future of American tennis vs someone who is currently seen as part of the future of American tennis. A battle of players who can impose themselves from the baseline and hit their spots on-serve.

How will this matchup play out? Who will come out on top? Read on for my thoughts!

No. 31 seed Taylor Fritz is certainly grateful that this match is happening at all. The 23 year-old American suffered a massive injury during Roland Garros, tearing his meniscus during his second round Roland Garros match against Dominik Koepfer. The injury was so severe that he had to have a wheelchair take him off the court. Fritz even needed surgery, but somehow has found the strength and willpower to find a way to get ready for the meeting.

Fritz's health is certainly no guarantee. But, if he's in the draw, I'm going to assume he's healthy enough to at least compete at a good level. And if that's the case, then he certainly will present a massive challenge to Nakashima.

Fritz has won 1 ATP Tour title in his career and he lifted that winner's trophy on the grass of Eastbourne. In 2019, Fritz beat fellow American Sam Querrey in the final 6-3, 6-4.

After the match, Fritz told the ATP, "It's so amazing. I almost can't even believe it. I'm still trying to take it in...I really hope that I can continue on and progress the way Andy (Roddick) did and follow in his footsteps."

Fritz clearly saw the last Eastbourne champion from the United States, Andy Roddick, as a role model for his grass-court career.

In that Eastbourne event, Fritz served really well. He won at least 75% of his first-serve points in all 5 matches he played in the event. From the quarterfinals onwards, Fritz was only broken once. In the final against Querrey, Fritz won 89% of his first-serve points, facing only 1 break point, and he didn't get broken in that final.

However, at Wimbledon, Fritz has only made the 2nd round a couple times in his 4 appearances in the main draw. So, why has this been the case?

On the positive side, as mentioned before, Fritz's first serve is a huge weapon on faster surfaces, and is an area of his game where he's rapidly improved. Fritz's groundstrokes also are flatter and can really cut through the court on grass.

On the other hand, at times, it feels like the Fritz's backswings are little too far back for the quicker grass surface and he doesn't have an effective, low-skidding backhand slice that can do so much damage on the grass. In addition, Fritz isn't totally comfortable at the net.

So, there are aspects of Fritz's game that work supremely well on the grass, while there are other aspects that cause some concern. I guess that partially explains why, at times when he's able to play to his strengths on grass he can be dominant, while at other times, his weaknesses get exposed.

Perhaps some more time on grass last season and in the lead-up to Wimbledon this season would have been good for Fritz to continue to develop his grass-court game and try to continue to live up to the standard that Andy Roddick has set for American men, but a global pandemic and a fluke injury blew those chances.

On the other side of the net will be qualifier Brandon Nakashima. The 19 year-old American hadn't played a professional match on grass, having only competed in the juniors on grass.

And, in the Challengers leading up to Wimbledon qualifying, Nakashima showed some growing pains. Nakashima went 1-2 in the Challengers preceding Wimbledon qualifying, beat Mario Vilella Martinez and losing to Evgeny Donskoy and Thomas Fabbiano.

While Donskoy and Fabbiano are not the easiest matchups on grass, given the progression that Nakashima has shown, it was a bit disappointing that he lost those matches.

However, Nakashima seemed to put it all together during his time at qualifying in Roehampton.

The American doesn't have the biggest serve, but he hits his spots very well. He won 75% of his first-serve points in all three of his qualifying wins over Aleksander Vukic, Viktor Troicki, and Ernests Gulbis.

Nakashima also took advantage of second-serve returns. In every match Nakashima played in Roehampton, his opponents won 35% or fewer of his second-serve returns and broke 15 times over the course of the tournament.

In addition to his solid serving and returning, there are other aspects of Nakashima's game that work well on grass. Nakashima's groundstrokes are very flat and he hits his targets. Finally, Nakashima has really made it a point to improve his net-game, an aspect of tennis that is particularly important on grass. Nakashima attacks the net with authority and hits razor-sharp volleys.

Nakashima, however, doesn't have the power that would let him hit opponents off the court at times his forehand can get a little bit shaky, and like Fritz, his backhand slice could also use some work.

But, ultimately, Nakashima's qualifying campaign was a massive achievement. It was the first time in his career that he had qualified for a Major and Nakashima was clearly happy with his level of play.

Having had success at Roehampton as a junior, Nakashima explained to the ATP during his qualifying campaign, "It definitely feels pretty good coming back here. I feel comfortable with the courts..."

And, given how he performed, his comfort on the grass was very evident.

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So, how will this matchup play out?

They've never played in a non-exhibition event, although Fritz leads 2-1 in exhibitions. However, all 3 of those matches were on hard courts and there's really not much to take away from them.

Fritz will have the power advantage from the baseline, but Nakashima is more comfortable at the net and will look to impose himself on Fritz when he can.

In terms of the serve, Fritz's first serve has evolved into one of the best in the game. He won't give Nakashima many opportunities on return and Nakashima will have to be clutch in converting the opportunities given to him.

Fritz's health is certainly the biggest question mark. Will he be ready physically for best-of-five? Will he have enough time on the practice courts to hone his game? How will he respond to not playing a grass-court match in 2 years?

Given Fritz's health concerns and lack of matchplay, it's hard to expect too much from him in this one. And an in-form Nakashima who has already played 6 matches on the grass this season.

For Nakashima, he's inexperienced at the Grand Slam level. He's only played in one Major before and never outside of the United States.

Ultimately, I trust Nakashima to pull through in this match. His improved net game and aggressive attitude will come through for him here and will be the steadier player from the baseline, as a rusty Fritz will spray unforced errors.

It won't be entirely straightforward, but expect Brandon Nakashima to win in 4 sets and set up a 2nd round showdown with fellow American Steve Johnson or Dennis Novak!