Men's French Open Draw Thoughts

 It's weird to be near the end of September, yet we still have a major to go. And it's even weirder that this major is the French Open, typically played in May and June. But that's the 2020 tennis season in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic. So, let's see where the French Open takes us! Will Rafael Nadal win his 13th French Open? Read on to find out!

Get ready for some (surely incorrect) predictions.

Note: the full men's draw can be found here

Don't Be Surprised If:

1. Rafael Nadal Wins the French Open Again

I had to get this one out of the way and I won't spend too much time on it, don't want to waste y'alls time saying stuff y'all already know. Nadal has quintessential clay court game. There's very few people in the draw that can beat him, so it's pointless to go through match-by-match. 

For Rafa, it's important that he conserves his energy ahead of what could be a brutal final two matches of the tournament if he faces Thiem in the semifinals and Djokovic in the final. And there's no one in Rafa's quarter that could challenge him too much at this point. 

Fognini in the round of 16 could be tricky, but he hasn't been close to his old self since his surgery during the pandemic. And Zverev in the quarterfinals could theoretically be tough, but does anyone really think that Nadal isn't going to take full advantage of Zverev's serving issues?

While the heavier conditions of the fall do not suit Nadal's game, it is very hard to pick against him in this tournament.

2. Denis Shapovalov Makes his First Grand Slam Semifinal

No, I didn't think a few months ago I would be predicting this either. But, I was really impressed by how Shapovalov played both at the US Open and then on the clay in Rome. Shapovalov's rally tolerance is at the best I've ever seen it, which is a really good thing on clay. Will he be able to sustain that over multiple best-of-five matches? That remains to be seen.

The draw sets up well for Shapovalov, however. Simon, his first round opponent, has been completely out-of-form since the pandemic. Even on clay, in Simon's current form, expect Shapovalov to be able to hit through him. His second round opponent will probably be Roberto Carballes Baena. Very solid clay court, but he has nothing to really hurt Shapovalov with from either his serve or his baseline game.

Shapovalov just beat Dimitrov, the other seeded opponent in his mini-section, in Rome and I would expect a similar result in this one. In the round of 16, he would potentially play Stefanos Tsitsipas. However, Tsitsipas was very weak in his Rome loss to Sinner, and even today in Hamburg against Cuevas, he was not convincing in his victory. 

Tsitsipas just doesn't have the depth and placement that he had last season during the clay court swing. And Tsitsipas has a very tough potential third round match against Filip Krajinovic. Shapovalov has won his only meeting with Krajinovic and whoever wins that battle between Tsitsipas and Krajinovic should be very tired. (My pick for a Tsitsipas vs Krajinovic match will be revealed later in this article!)

In the quarterfinals, Shapovalov might play Daniil Medvedev. However, clay is Medvedev's worst surface and he struggled in a straight-sets loss to Ugo Humbert in Hamburg this past week. Medvedev's flat ball-striking makes his life a little harder on the clay. Shapovalov also might play Andrey Rublev. However, Shapovalov leads the head to head 2-1 and has won each of the past two meetings against Rublev in straight sets.

Denis Shapovalov certainly has a path to a Grand Slam semifinal against, likely, Novak Djokovic.

3. Stefanos Tsitispas Goes Out in the First Week

Related to my previous point about Shapovalov, I am not convinced at all about Tsitsipas and think that the draw sets up quite poorly for him. I believe he loses before even getting the 

Tsitsipas lost 1-6, 7-6(9), 2-6 to Sinner last week and could not find his game at all. He won only 53% of his first serve points and 49% of his second serve points, hitting 7 double faults. Beating Dan Evans on clay and an older Pablo, Cuevas who really should have won the first set does not change my opinion that he is in trouble in Paris.

Tsitsipas plays Jaume Munar in the first round, who doesn't have the weapons to beat him, but his consistency from the baseline could tire Tsitsipas out. He will most likely get Pablo Cuevas in the second round,  and maybe this time Tsitsipas won't be able to get away with saving five break points that would have allowed Cuevas to serve for the first set.

Then, in the third round, it would be a war with (likely) Filip Krajinovic. Krajinovic is a very competent player and just beat Marco Cecchinato and Felix Auger-Aliassime in Rome before losing a close straight-setter to Novak Djokovic. 

Tsitsipas beat Krajinovic in a very tight four-set match at the French Open last year and it feels like Tsitsipas is playing worse tennis and Krajinovic is playing better tennis.

I think there's a very good shot that Tsitsipas is out in the first week.

4. Dominic Thiem Loses Early (For His Standards)

I know this is a popular opinion, but I really don't like Thiem's draw. Cilic's serving in Rome was at a high-level, but he certainly isn't a clay courter and Thiem just beat him in four sets at the US Open. Still, playing a grand slam champion with a serve like Cilic's in the first round is not ideal.

In the second round, Thiem might play Reilly Opelka. Opelka is a nightmare opponent, regardless of the surface, as he can take the racquet out of opponents' hands with his huge serve. In the third round, Thiem (if he gets to this point) will likely face Casper Ruud, who just made the semifinals of Rome and is in the quarterfinals of Hamburg currently. Ruud's heavy forehand is extremely dangerous on clay and Ruud is extremely fit. Thiem will have to work hard to win that one.

In the fourth round, Thiem might play former champion Stan Wawrinka, Felix Auger-Aliassime, or maybe even Andy Murray. None of these players are an easy out. Wawrinka, despite losing to Lorenzo Musetti in Rome, could easily serve well get hot from the baseline and punish Thiem with his huge forehand and one-handed backhand. Auger-Aliassime also has the ability to start serving huge and making sets tight with Thiem (although I'm more bullish on that possibility). And then Andy Murray I'm just mentioning out of respect, but he could make a match with Thiem very physical.

In the quarterfinals, it could be Diego Schwartzman for Thiem. Schwartzman has beaten Thiem a couple times in the past and was playing excellent tennis in Rome, making the final. This included a massive straight-sets victory over Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals. That would not be easy, as Schwartzman's ability to take over the baseline, even though he is only 5 foot, 7 inches, is superb.

Thiem has made the final of Roland Garros the past two seasons (losing to Nadal both times), so it feels that any loss before the semifinals would be early. However, given how physical the end of the US Open was for Thiem combined with the mental fatigue of winning his first grand slam final, Thiem could be ripe for an upset in this tournament.

My Favorite First Round Matchup

Stan Wawrinka vs Andy Murray

Yes, this is a very cliche choice, but I feel it would be disingenuous for me to put anything else. Wawrinka did not look great in Rome, but he's gotten a lot of matches on the clay and is a former French Open champion. Andy Murray, while he hasn't won Roland Garros, has won multiple other majors and is so hard to beat regardless of surface. Rally tolerance is so huge against Murray, who can get so many balls back and is one of the best counterpunchers in the game.

I really am unsure of how this match will go. A lot of it will come down to Wawrinka's first serve percentage. If he can control his service games with a big first serve, it would be very hard for Murray to win this match. Wawrinka also has been a little wild from the baseline since the pandemic, which would be a disaster against a consistent player like Murray. 

Another factor is whether or not Murray is physically ready for best-of-five on the most physical surface of them all: red clay.

If I had to choose, I would say Wawrinka wins in four sets. I'm not convinced Murray has what it takes to win a clay court Grand Slam match against a player of the caliber of Wawrinka. Wawrinka has a bit too much firepower for Murray at this stage of Murray's career.

Walking "Byes"

1. Cameron Norrie

Yes, this is a bigger name than you might have been expecting, and yes, I know Norrie is playing a qualifier. But, I just can't see Norrie winning given his current clay form. He's, quite frankly, been a disaster on clay since the restart.

Norrie lost to current World No. 320 Giulio Zeppieri in Rome qualifications, only winning four games. Then, in at the Forli Challenger, Norrie won a tight three-setter over current World No. 1052 Christian Harrison, who had to qualify to make the main draw. After his tight win over Harrison, he then lost to current World No. 346 Andrea Pellegrino in straight sets.

I just can't see Norrie winning a round in his current clay-form, regardless of which qualifier he plays.

2. Nikoloz Basilashvili

I know it's weird to have a seeded player as a walking bye, but this is the case with Basilashvili. Since the restart, Basilashvili has went 0-5, without even winning a set. This is understandable due to the domestic violence charge against him, which I will not get into, but that you can read about for yourself. 

Basilashvili has been very erratic from the baseline since tennis has come back and there's no reason for that to change with his upcoming first round match against Thiago Monteiro. 

Expect Basilashvili to lose again in the first round of the French Open.

Predictions

Quarterfinals

Djokovic over Bautista Agut in 4

Shapovalov over Rublev in 5

Schwartzman over Ruud in 5

Nadal over Zverev in 3

Semifinals

Djokovic over Shapovalov in 4

Nadal over Schwartzman in 4

Final

Nadal over Djokovic in 4

Ball Kid Reform in the Aftermath of COVID-19

As COVID-19 wreaks havoc across the world, I thought about what good, if any, could possibly come out of this terrible pandemic. Coronavirus has brought much of the world to a halt, so there's plenty of time to think about tennis reform.

Before Indian Wells was cancelled, the plan was for ball kids to not handle the towels (towels would be on chairs) and to wear gloves while performing their duties on court. The question, then, that I have is: Why has it taken a global pandemic for this type of reform to be fully brought to the forefront of those in charge of tennis?

Even if we didn't have highly contagious, dangerous disease out there, what has stopped the tennis authorities from implementing such a change earlier?

At the Next Gen Finals event for the ATP, towel racks were placed on court so that ball kids would not have to touch the players' sweaty towels. Sure, it might take an extra second or two for the player to walk to the towel rack, but it is certainly worth it.

Besides sweat, almost certainly the players' hair and skin cells were smeared across those towels. And if a player was sick, the ball kids were at especially high risk.

The reception of the towel rack wasn't outstanding. According to The Telegraph's Charlie Eccleshare, Stefanos Tsitsipas stated, "it's the ball kids' job to provide them." This was when Tsitsipas was in the Next Gen Finals in 2018, so he might have evolved his view since then. But regardless, it shouldn't be the ball kids' job to hand players' a dirty towel. Pandemic or not.

Something interesting in Indian Wells' plans was the introduction of gloves. And it makes sense, right? Even if not touching the towels, the ball kids still have to touch the balls themselves. The same balls that the sweaty players hold before they serve and that smash into the asphalt/clay/grass many, many times throughout the match.

Not to mention that if a ball goes into the stands and a fan throws the ball back, that fan might also not be feeling well. So, it makes sense, at least to me, that ball kids should be heavily encouraged to wear gloves, no matter the state of public health around the world.

Perhaps I sound like I'm being hypersensitive given the state of the pandemic, but momentum has been building for ball kid reform for quite some time, with Fernando Verdasco's October 2018 treatment of a ball kid providing momentum for positive change. It should never be forgotten that ball kids are worthy of the same respect given to others in the tennis universe.

Due to coronavirus, July 13th is the soonest we will see tennis, as of now. And so many of us are eager to get back to the court as quickly as possible. But, when we do get back, let's not forget about the innovations that Indian Wells showed us just prior to its cancellation.

Ball kids are very important in the game of tennis in the sense that they keep the flow of the game working really well. Instead of tennis being a start-stop process, as players collect balls from around the court, ball kids keep the pace of play high.

So, let's start showing these invaluable members of the tennis community the respect they deserve, even if we have to delay the match a couple seconds so a player can towel himself/herself off.

Because without the ball kids, matches would be going a lot slower.

So, I'm imploring the ATP, WTA, and ITF: the COVID-19 pandemic is bad enough, let's see if we can get a little bit of good out of a terrible situation.

And ball kid reform as described in this post would be a good thing for the game.

Thoughts Regarding Tennis and COVID-19

So, this blog post is just as much as about myself working through issues related to tennis and coronavirus as much as it is about trying to provide clarity for others. Quite frankly, coronavirus has wrecked havoc to the tennis season. But, at this point, tennis is the very least of the vast, vast majority of the world's concerns.

COVID-19

I'm not an infectious disease, so I won't pretend to be an expert, but this is a good link for learning the very basics about coronavirus (specifically COVID-19) if you don't already know the specifics. Essentially, COVID-19 is a contagious disease that started in Wuhan, China, late last year. The main symptoms of COVID-19 are the patient having a fever, being tired, and having a cough that is dry. The link above answers many of the other questions you have about this strain of coronavirus and, rather than repeat their answers here, it's better to look at the Q&A if you want to learn more.

Impact on ATP, WTA, and ITF

Honestly, the impact on tennis really isn't important at this point, but this is a tennis blog and so I will break it down. The first major domino to fall was the cancellation of the outdoors hard court BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Indian Wells is a Masters 1000 for men and Premier Mandatory for women, so it's right below the ATP and WTA Finals events in terms of importance. From the perspective of an American, Indian Wells was one of the first American major events to be postponed (or cancelled), so this came as a shock.

It also came as a shock to the players, where some vented on Twitter for being out of the loop and finding out on the social media platform instead of from their governing body (WTA or ATP) directly. It's understandable that the tours would be scrambling, but it can certainly be frustrating, from the players' point of view, if they aren't getting information about the sport that they rely on for their livelihood in a timely manner.

Indian Wells was technically postponed, so there's a chance that it is played later this year. But, given the French Open's move (which I will discuss later), it seems less likely now. But, in a time like this, who knows.

March 12th was a busy day for tennis postponements/cancellations. The ITF postponed events until April 20th, at the earliest. The ITF is involved in events like Futures tournaments, Fed Cup, and Davis Cup. Therefore, anything within those areas are postponed.

Also on March 12th, the Miami Open was cancelled until 2021. Miami, like Indian Wells, is a Masters 1000 event for the ATP and Premier Mandatory for the WTA, so this was another major cancellation. The sunshine swing was officially over, at least at this point.

On this same date, the ATP announced a six week hiatus from the tour due to COVID-19. There are many tournaments affected by this ruling across the United States and Europe. This ruling also affects the ATP Challenger Tour, which is under the ATP's jurisdiction. The Challenger Tour was suspended, which included the tournaments currently being played in Potchefstroom and Nur-Sultan.

The WTA took a more incremental approach to the postponement/cancellation dilemma. On March 12th, The WTA stated that the Miami Open and the Volvo Car Open (Charleston green clay event) would not be happening. Then, later in the day on March 12th, the WTA cancelled Challenger in Guadalajara during the second week of Indian Wells and the International event set to start on April 6th in Bogota.

Finally, on March 16th, the WTA suspended the entire tour until May 2nd. This means that the indoor clay tournament in Stuttgart, and the outdoor clay events in Istanbul and Prague wouldn't occur. This stoppage was set a little longer than the ATP's, but at least I presume that the extension of the ATP hiatus would have been extended to at least as long as the WTA's.


Update: As reported by Gaspar Ribeiro Lanca, the ATP, WTA, and ITF announced that tennis is called off until June 7th. A freeze in the rankings will occur during this time.

Here is the updated list of tournaments that won't be played due to COVID-19.

French Open

The French Open, one of tennis' four major tournaments, announced on March 17th that the tournament would be moved to the back half of September through the beginning of October, as opposed to its usual late May through early June dates.

 This spins the tennis calendar on its head much more so than before. As tennis journalist Jose Morgado points out, there are many ATP and WTA events that were supposed to be played during the French Open, it seems unilaterally, decided to change their dates. 

There was confusion all around, whether it be the ATP's Player's Council, per Morgado, or even the WTA's head Steve Simon, as tennis journalist Christopher Clarey points out. It seems that the French Open's move was a total shock for many involved.

Morgado also makes the good point that the US Open ends six days before Roland Garros! The logistics of having a slam in such close proximity is, let's be honest, a nightmare. The US Open, given their statement, are clearly not happy with the French Open, either.

But, at the same time, former tennis player Mark Petchey has provided good perspective on the matter, stating that the ability to still have the major and make such massive amounts of money in such a time of crisis and instability in the world. 

It's certainly true that getting to play all four majors this year, even if it's inconvenient and some people in the world would have to make sacrifices. But, in the time of a pandemic, everyone isn't going to be able to get their way completely. It's important to just accept that, even if the French Open is coming off selfishly in this manner.

Overall

However, the economic impact of cancelling so much tennis is huge for players and others who make their money from tennis are suffering greatly right now. Even for players that were planning on playing or qualifying for Indian Wells or Miami, that was a big opportunity to make a lot of money that could fund much of the rest of the year and get an immediate boost in the rankings. For players planning on playing ITF events and Challengers, and tournaments workers who were relying on these tournaments to make a living, this crisis is even more of a disaster.

This certainly feels like a bleak time in the world's history and this feeling is certainly a reality. Kirsten Flipkens' sentiment in this tweet from March 15th is certainly a good way of looking at this world crisis.

Anything Positive?

To bring a small breath of positivity in this time, I want to state that I was very excited to see that Tsvetana Pironokva is coming back to the WTA Tour! She has been gone from the WTA due to having a child and is ready to see if she can reach new heights on the WTA Tour, having gotten as high as No. 31 in the World. Pironkova made the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010, beating Venus Williams in straight sets in the quarterfinals before a semifinal loss to Vera Zvonareva.

It's going to be great to see Pironkova back out on the tennis court. Hopefully we can all band together and get through this world health crisis and we can see her, and every other professional tennis player, on court soon.

Stay safe, y'all!