Three Storylines Emerging from Release of US Open Men's Singles Draw

 The wait is over! The US Open men's singles draw are out! While there are so many different angles that one could take looking at the draw, I think there are three points that stand out amongst the crowd. 

In this article, I will detail three storylines for tennis fans to keep in mind when reviewing the US Open men's singles draw.

1. Alexander Zverev is in Novak Djokovic's Side of the Draw

By far the biggest story going into the draw release was where No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev would fall in the draw. Would he be on No. 1 seed Novak Djokovic's side, or No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev's side?

Zverev has had the best results out of any player in men's tennis since the end of Wimbledon. The German won the Olympic gold medal, beating Djokovic in the semifinals, and then won Cincinnati, taking down  Stefanos Tsitsipas from two-breaks down in the third set of their semifinal match, and then taking down Andrey Rublev with ease in the final.

Zverev won at least 85% of his first-serve points in four of his five matches in Cincinnati and only dropped one set all tournament (to Tsitsipas). In the Olympics he also dropped a singular set, to Djokovic.

While Zverev's success in Cincinnati might have been due to Djokovic's absence, he's full of confidence with two titles since the end of Wimbledon and an 11-match winning streak. Zverev is certainly tougher to face than Tsitsipas, whose return is a major question mark right now.

The fact that Djokovic is scheduled to face Zverev in the semifinals in his quest for the Calendar Slam, instead of Zverev facing Medvedev, is a huge story for the draw. Instead, Medvedev will most likely get either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev in the semifinals. Medvedev is 6-2 against Tsitsipas and 5-1 against Rublev, with both players at a tactical disadvantage against Medvedev.

So, while Djokovic might have to fight it out in a war against red-hot Zverev in the semifinals, Medvedev would play one of two players that he's comfortable against. Yes, Medvedev lost to Rublev in the semifinals of Cincinnati, but the hand-injury certainly played a role in that loss. There's not much Rublev can do  to hurt Medvedev.

In addition, it's very possible that, if Djokovic makes it through Zverev, that he will be more fatigued than Medvedev will be due to what should be a great semifinal against the German.

Of course, it's also important to keep in mind that Zverev probably would have wanted to avoid Djokovic's half as much as Djokovic would have wanted to avoid him.

2. Djokovic's Draw is Very Smooth Until the Semifinals

While I have just ranted about Djokovic getting a tough semifinal assignment, his road getting there is quite straightforward. He starts out the tournament with a qualifier, and while we don't know which qualifier it will be yet, there are no qualifiers in the draw that can seriously challenge Djokovic.

From there, he will play either Tallon Griekspoor or Jan-Lennard Struff. Griekspoor doesn't have the rally tolerance to get close to Djokovic and has nothing to really hurt the Serb with. Struff has a huge serve and a heavy forehand, but Djokovic has won 15 of 16 sets against Struff and the German was very poor in a 2-6, 1-6 loss to Ivashka in Winston-Salem.

In the third round, Djokovic would face off against No. 27 seed David Goffin, Mackenzie McDonald, or Kei Nishikori in the third round. Goffin is completely out-of-form, and McDonald, along with Nishikori, don't do anything that can hurt Djokovic. McDonald's game is tailor-made for Djokovic to neutralize him, and there's a reason Djokovic is 17-2 against Nishikori. In backhand-to-backhand rallies (the backhand being Nishikori's strength), Djokovic will still have the upper hand. Plus, Djokovic can take advantage of the Nishikori second serve.

In Nishikori's last matchup with Djokovic in the quarterfinals of the Olympics, Djokovic won 6-0, 6-2, with Djokovic winning 82% of the points on his serve versus 43% for Nishikori.

In the round of 16, Djokovic would most likely play either Aslan Karatsev, Taylor Fritz, or Alex De Minaur. Aslan Karatsev has cooled down significantly since he beat Djokovic in Belgrade in April and made the semifinals of the Australian Open. Taylor Fritz only got close to Djokovic in the third round of the Australian Open due to Djokovic's abdominal injury. Alex De Minaur makes the most of his talent, but he won't be able to out-grind Djokovic, especially in the best-of-five format.

In the quarterfinals, Djokovic could face off against Hubert Hurkacz or Matteo Berrettini. Djokovic is 2-0 against Hurkacz, having won six of the seven sets they've played, although never on a hard court. Djokovic is 3-0 against Berrettini, having just won the Wimbledon final against him in four sets.

In that Wimbledon final, Djokovic won 79% of his first serves and held Berrettini to 38% second serves won. Berrettini faced 15 break points in that match and was broken six times.

Hurkacz and Berrettini might be able to serve their way into close sets, but Djokovic just has better precision and rally tolerance than both of them. In addition, for Berrettini specifically, Djokovic can target his backhand, especially in the backhand-to-backhand exchanges.

Look for Djokovic to make the semifinals (and most likely play Zverev) without too many issues.

3. Can Stefanos Tsitsipas Survive Andy Murray?

I feel stupid even writing this, but on social media, this matchup between No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and former US Open champion Andy Murray is gaining a lot of traction.

The truth is: there won't need to much surviving here, as Tsitsipas should trounce Murray and easily advance to the second round.

While Tsitsipas and Murray have never played each other before, does anything, in the best-of-five format, does anyone expect someone with Murray's injury history to be too competitive against a young rising star with the pedigree of Tsitsipas.

In Winston-Salem this past week, Murray won less than 50% of his second-serve points in both of his matches and, against Frances Tiafoe in the second round, he only put 47% of his first serves in play.

For Murray to even be competitive with Tsitsipas, he needs to be making a high percentage of his first serves and needs to be very aggressive with his second serves so that Tsitsipas can't tee off.

With Tsitsipas struggling against big servers, playing someone who doesn't serve huge like Murray seems to be a dream first round opponent.

And even if he does that, at this stage in Murray's career, he doesn't possess the game to force a powerful player like Tsitsipas off of the baseline and make him uncomfortable.

Expect Tsitsipas to beat Murray with ease, losing one set at the absolute most.

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So, what do you think about the storylines mentioned here? Let me know what you think in the comments!

Enjoy the US Open, folks!

A Look Into USO 1st Round Matches Involving The Rising ATP Stars

The 1st Round of the US Open is full of matches involving young, rising stars on the ATP World Tour.  This post will look into Alexander Zverev, Borna Coric, Elias Ymer, Yoshihito Nishioka, and Frances Tiafoe's First Round matches and whether they will be moving onto the Second Round.

Alexander Zverev vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber
In this matchup, 18 year-old Alexander Zverev, currently ranked number 76 in the world but still had to play qualies due to his ranking at the cutoff date, takes on the established Philipp Kohlschreiber.  Philipp is ranked number 29 presently.  This match is in the Federer quarter of the bracket.  These two played in a 250 event in Munich this year, with Kohlschreiber easily winning the match 6-2, 6-4.  So, will this match be any different?  Well, Zverev's form has certainly been better than Kohlschreiber's on hard courts.  Kohlschreiber has only played one match on hard courts since Wimbledon, tepidly losing to Joao Sousa in three sets (but with game differential of -7).  Zverev, meanwhile, has made the Quarterfinals of Washington, and qualified for the Cincy Masters 1000, losing in a third set tiebreaker to Borna Coric.  And Zverev will also have a better feel for the Flushing Meadow hard courts, with three qualifying wins already under his belt.  However, I don't feel as if it will be enough.  Losing a set to Nils Langer was disturbing enough for me to feel as if Zverev has cooled down some from his previous form, and his match with Dodig was tight as well.  Although Philipp might start slow from lack of play on hard, he will prevail in the end.  Prediction: Kohlschreiber in four sets.

Borna Coric vs. Rafael Nadal
This is a classic matchup between a rising star and a hardened champion.  Rafael Nadal, currently number seven in the world, will need to be playing his best tennis in order to take out Borna Coric, the highest ranked "young gun" at number 33.  Rafa should be on high alert for this matchup not only due to Coric's ranked but also the head to head, which shows Borna leading 1-0, with a 6-2, 7-6(4) win over Nadal in Basel last year.  Although, it should be noted that Rafa was carrying an internal injury for that match involving his appendix.  Rafa and Borna have faired similarly on the North American hard courts, with Nadal boasting a 3-2 record and Coric having a 3-3 record.  For both players, the results have just been average, certainly not up to Rafa's standards.  You have to think that Rafa will be very fired-up for this match, as his loss to Coric last year was seen as embarrassing and was really the start to the questioning of Nadal's decline.  I believe Nadal will play inspired tennis in front of a rowdy New York crowd, which could very well intimidate Coric.  Prediction: Nadal in three tight sets.

Elias Ymer vs. Diego Schwartzman
The "young gun" Elias Ymer takes on grinder Diego Schwartzman in what seems to be a pretty even matchup. Ymer, ranked 131 in the world, and Schwartzman, ranked 73 in the world, have never played one another.  This is Ymer's fourth time this year qualifying for a major, which can be looked at in two ways.  Either you praise him for continuing to qualify for the major, or you wonder why he hasn't gotten direct entry into the majors yet.  It is important to note that Ymer hasn't yet won a match at a major in his career and has one main-draw win at a hard court event all year.   It should be noted that Schwartzman certainly prefers clay courts, while Ymer is an unknown at this point as to his preferred surface.  Schwartzman skipped Montreal and Cincy, but did play Winston-Salem winning two matches before bowing out to Borna Coric.  Schwartzman is a Sara Errani-type player in which his serve is not great, but his return is very good.  Ymer has recently played two hard court challengers, going 1-2 and certainly not putting his best foot forward.  He will have the experience of playing in the Flushing Meadows, however, with three qualifying wins, including a third set tiebreak win over Struff.   Ultimately, the lack of wins outside of grand slam qualifying is disturbing for Ymer.  And while Schwartzman is certainly not a world beater, he possesses a game in which he will expose the weaknesses in Ymer's game.  I don't think Elias has the serve to overpower Diego, and his return isn't good enough to take the match, although he should be just good enough to take a set.  Prediction: Schwartzman in four sets.

Yoshihito Nishioka vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
In this matchup, the 150th ranked Nishioka faces the 81st ranked Mathieu (who had to qualify due to the time of the ranking deadline) in a battle between two qualifiers.  Nishioka has played a lot of hard court tennis since failing to qualify for Wimbledon.  Yoshihito has played in four hard court tournaments (three challengers and Washington), qualifying for Washington but losing in the First Round to Zverev in straight sets and reaching two quarters and a semi in the challenger events.  This was all before playing three straight three-setters in qualifying to the US Open.  Mathieu had great success on the clay after Wimbledon, making the Final of Kitzbuhel as a qualifier before losing in three sets to Kohlschreiber, and took this good form onto the hard courts, only losing one set in qualifying.  Mathieu is having a great run, and Nishioka has played a ton of tennis recently, which could catch up to him in the best-of-five format.  Prediction: Mathieu in three sets.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Viktor Troicki
Frances Tiafoe, a wildcard ranked number 248 in the world, battles Viktor Troicki, currently ranked number 21.  While on paper, this might seem like a mismatch, when one looks deeper, it turns out to be a tight matchup.  Tiafoe earned his wildcard by winning the prestigious junior event in Kalamazoo, showing that the best-of-five format will not trouble him, as he beat Kozlov in the Final in five sets.  Tiafoe continued with this good form at Winston-Salem, qualifying for the tournament (including impressive wins over Albot and Harrison), before winning his first-ever ATP main draw match against Duckworth and taking the established Bellucci to a third-set tiebreak after being up a break in the third set.  Triocki has been dreadful during the summer hard court season, losing all four matches he has played on hard, only managing to take a single set.  This poor run included shocking losses to Youznhy, Fish, and Jaziri, so a loss to Tiafoe is certainly not out of the question.  It's also important to remember that Tiafoe will have all of the crowd support in this match, and will certainly be buoyed on by the crowd.  Frances has certainly had his share of dramatic matches this season, and this match will be no different.  Viktor will certainly not be in the right state of mind, and the crowd will further this feeling.  This will be the upset of the tournament.  Prediction: Tiafoe in five sets.