A week ago, another Twitter poster, Baseline Bagels, and I got into a heated debate over whether Juan Martin Del Potro deserves a wildcard to the US Open. Del Potro would need a wildcard to the US Open because his ranking (at 142 in the live rankings currently) is not high enough to give him direct entry into the main draw, and I learned though that he is not using a PR because, I would assume, it has either expired or he has used it all up. I am vehement, however, that not only does Del Potro deserve a wildcard to the US Open, but that the US Open should be extremely enthusiastic about giving him one.
For starters, Del Potro is a former US Open champion. In 2009, Juan Martin won the event, beating an impressive group of players in the process. In the final three rounds of the tournament, he beat three slam champions (although only two at the time) in Marin Cilic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer. Del Potro beat Nadal in straight sets, only losing six games, and came back from two-sets-to-one down in the Final to beat Federer. Coming into that Final with Federer, Del Potro had only lost two sets during the tournament.
So, with a resume like that, it seems obvious that Del Potro would receive a wildcard if his ranking is not high enough to have direct entry into the main draw. At only 27 years old, Del Potro is still in the prime of his career, and as wins this year over Stanislas Wawrinka, Dominic Thiem, Gilles Simon, and Grigor Dimitrov have shown, Del Potro is still capable of playing at a very high level and would certainly not be an easy First Round opponent for anyone.
Baseline Bagels tried to say that giving Del Potro a wildcard would be the same as giving one to former champion Lleyton Hewitt. However, besides the fact that Lleyton Hewitt has retired, he is also 35 years old and has not won consecutive singles matches since 2014. If Hewitt was 27 years old, then he would probably have an argument for receiving a wildcard, but Del Potro and Hewitt's situations are much different and should not be compared.
Another important thing to remember about Del Potro is that he is the only male slam, and US Open, champion from the Western Hemisphere (another difference between him and Hewitt) since Andy Roddick at the US Open in 2003. While he isn't an American, he is from the Americas and that is definitely something to keep in mind when deciding whether to give the wildcard to an American or Del Potro. Because, the crux of Baseline Bagel's argument is that the US Open is a place to develop American talent, and thus every non-reciprocal wildcard should be given to American players.
And in almost any other situation, I would wholeheartedly agree with Baseline Bagels. The United States has so many young, talented American players alongside many talented older Americans that have made their mark on tennis in the United States, that, even if Del Potro had a ranking that got him direct entry into the main draw, choosing the US Open wildcards would be extremely difficult. However, with a former champion, 27 years old, from the Americas not directly into the main draw, it is a no-brainer that Del Potro should receive a wildcard instead of any of the other candidates for that wildcard. In regards to the younger Americans, the American player not receiving a wildcard because Del Potro received one might be better off in the long run attempting to qualify (just as Del Potro had to qualify in the early stages of his career) for the US Open instead of being given a wildcard.
And, the US Open also doesn't have to worry that giving a wildcard to a non-American would mean less fans would be interested in the US Open, and specifically Juan Martin's matches. Del Potro already is a household name, he has huge fan support, and any match he plays in will be a huge draw.
For me, this is an easy decision for the USTA to make. The USTA should absolutely give Juan Martin Del Potro a US Open wildcard.
Showing posts with label Marin Cilic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marin Cilic. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Monday, July 18, 2016
United States Davis Cup Disappointment: What Went Wrong and What's Next?
The entire situation was sort of surreal. The United States couldn't possibly have blown a 2-0 lead in the best-of-five Davis Cup, could they have? As I sat last night pondering what happened in the United States-Croatia Davis Cup Quarterfinals, I just couldn't wrap my brain around the total collapse that occurred for the United States in this competition. And, when you combine the collapse with the reality of the current state of American male tennis, it makes the loss all the more frustrating.
The Davis Cup campaign for the US men started out promising. After losing in the Round of 16 of the World Group to Great Britain the past two years, in 2016, the team won their Round of 16 tie against Australia, beating the Australians in their home country on the grass in four matches. John Isner beat Sam Groth, the Bryan Brothers won the doubles match in five sets, and the Isner took down Bernard Tomic to win the tie for the Americans. This was a huge win for the United States, as a very winnable next tie against Croatia loomed.
The tie against Crotia started out amazingly well for the United States. After losing the first two sets, Jack Sock proceeded to win the next three to beat Marin Cilic in a dramatic five set victory to give America a 1-0 lead in the tie. Considering how Cilic also lost in five sets to Roger Federer in his previous match at Wimbledon (also leading two sets to none), this was a greatly damaging loss to his psyche. John Isner then took the second rubber of the tie over Borna Coric in three fairly straight-forward sets to give the United States a commanding lead.
In my mind, and I imagine in the minds of many American tennis fans and even the players, it was a matter of "when" rather than "if" in regards to when the United States would finish off this tie, with the Bryan Brothers having a great shot to win the doubles rubber and make sure there would not be a live rubber on Sunday. This is when things went awry.
Bob and Mike Bryan took on Ivan Dodig and Marin Cilic in the doubles rubber. The Bryans, obviously, are doubles legends. They have won 16 doubles majors, and an Olympic goal together, while also winning 11 mixed doubles majors split between the two (Bob with seven mixed titles and Mike with four). It is a great luxury for the United States to be able to put such an amazing doubles team out there every time Davis Cup rolls around, and it is almost to be expected that America will take the doubles rubber.
It must be said that Ivan Dodig was a player not to be underestimated. He has been as high as number four in the world in doubles, and won the 2015 French Open with Marcelo Melo. However, Dodig's doubles partner in this match, Marin Cilic, scarcely plays doubles, as shown by his doubles ranking of number 256 in the world. Therefore, presumably, he would be the major weakness on the court. However, that did not turn out to be the case.
Instead, it was Mike Bryan who was the weak spot out there, causing major issue for the American squad. With a serve that was broken often, and which I could not say was even at the level of serve you'd see on the ATP Challenger Tour, while doing enough with the rest of his game to make up for his serving deficiencies, it was a disastrous day for Mike. It was very upsetting watching the match, as the Bryan Brothers as a tandem have clearly lost a step out there, which an experienced doubles player like Dodig was quick to exploit. And while Cilic played well, the Bryans just couldn't seem to put him in tough positions at the net, which might have also allowed his recent best-of-five issues to enter the front of his mind. But, In the end, Dodig/Cilic won the match in four sets, and the tie would go on to Sunday.
I must say, my expectations for John Isner beating a rejuvenated Marin Cilic were not high. I thought John had a chance, and certainly felt like he would take a set, but Cilic is a singles major champion and certainly not someone to be underestimated. John, however, put in a slightly disheartening performance, losing in straights sets, and only even being able to reach a tiebreak in the first set. In that first set John had a set point on Cilic's serve in the tiebreak, but couldn't convert, as Cilic managed to win the point after initially being on the defensive. In the second and third sets, Isner's huge serve was broken. Isner also never managed to break Cilic's big serve, losing out on his first, and only break chance. The tie was all-square, two apiece.
It seemed, to me, as if Isner felt he had done his job when he beat Coric on Friday, and never truly believed that he had what it took to beat Cilic. And this same lack of belief is what makes it disappointing that John pulled out of the Olympics and an ATP 250 event in Atlanta instead. It seems as if John's thinking is, "I don't think I can beat those top guys, so why try?" And I believe it is this type of mindset which has hindered John throughout his career, and was in full display yesterday, once more, against Marin.
The fifth rubber was between Jack Sock and Borna Coric. Sock came into the match with all of the momentum with his huge comeback victory over Cilic. That was the type of match which changes a career, as Sock not only beat a major champion in the best-of-five format, but did so when the odds were certainly against him. I expected him to come into this match oozing with confidence. And against Coric, a solid player, but not a guy with big weapons, I thought that Jack would be able to dictate play and pull out the victory. However, from the very start, Sock looked very low-energy out there, as if he were physically done from the match against Cilic.
All Coric really had to do was play good defense, get balls back in play, and wait for Sock to implode. The forehand that Jack is known for did not have the same bite as we are accustomed to seeing. And, I believe, it all stems back to Jack's fitness. I have been very critical of Sock in the past for not being fit enough to compete at the highest level on tour. His performances in Atlanta last year and in the Houston Final this year were a real indicator that Jack needs to be working harder on his fitness. Yesterday was yet another example of how he needs to be in better shape. Now, it seems like adrenaline during the Cilic match is what got him through that match, and when that adrenaline was gone, Sock could not handle the physical demands of another best-of-five match, especially against a defensive-minded Coric. Borna won the match in four sets, winning tie for Croatia 3-2. Croatia moved on to the Davis Cup Semifinals.
So, what can be done to make sure that a disappointing tie like this never happens again? I think that the United States should adjust who is playing on the team. I will start off by saying that I think that the Bryans should get to continue to play the doubles rubber until they retire. They have earned the right to have this opportunity, and there is no other American doubles player that is good enough to even approach the current level of Mike and Bob Bryan.
However, I would put different players in for John Isner and Jack Sock. I think American tennis should start looking to the future. Players such as Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Stefan Kozlov, and Tommy Paul should be given an early start playing for the United States Davis Cup team. Yes, these guys might not be winning matches immediately, but they are the building blocks for American tennis, and while the United States might not win the Davis Cup this year, if you allow young players such as Fritz, Tiafoe, Kozlov, and Paul to get Davis Cup experience early in their careers, then this will be beneficial for years down the road, and maybe in five years the United States can win Davis Cup once more.
Putting some of these young players out there might not be a popular choice, initially. I understand that, but with the game that these young Americans have shown, I think they could surprise some folks, possibly even winning a round or two next year, if a combination of these four players, based on the surface played on, were the singles players for the United States Davis Cup team next season.
But, even if you don't like my idea for how to change up the United States Davis Cup team, based on the disappointment this past weekend, it is quite clear that a change of some sort, either with in regards to who is in the lineup or who is our captain, must occur.
The Davis Cup campaign for the US men started out promising. After losing in the Round of 16 of the World Group to Great Britain the past two years, in 2016, the team won their Round of 16 tie against Australia, beating the Australians in their home country on the grass in four matches. John Isner beat Sam Groth, the Bryan Brothers won the doubles match in five sets, and the Isner took down Bernard Tomic to win the tie for the Americans. This was a huge win for the United States, as a very winnable next tie against Croatia loomed.
The tie against Crotia started out amazingly well for the United States. After losing the first two sets, Jack Sock proceeded to win the next three to beat Marin Cilic in a dramatic five set victory to give America a 1-0 lead in the tie. Considering how Cilic also lost in five sets to Roger Federer in his previous match at Wimbledon (also leading two sets to none), this was a greatly damaging loss to his psyche. John Isner then took the second rubber of the tie over Borna Coric in three fairly straight-forward sets to give the United States a commanding lead.
In my mind, and I imagine in the minds of many American tennis fans and even the players, it was a matter of "when" rather than "if" in regards to when the United States would finish off this tie, with the Bryan Brothers having a great shot to win the doubles rubber and make sure there would not be a live rubber on Sunday. This is when things went awry.
Bob and Mike Bryan took on Ivan Dodig and Marin Cilic in the doubles rubber. The Bryans, obviously, are doubles legends. They have won 16 doubles majors, and an Olympic goal together, while also winning 11 mixed doubles majors split between the two (Bob with seven mixed titles and Mike with four). It is a great luxury for the United States to be able to put such an amazing doubles team out there every time Davis Cup rolls around, and it is almost to be expected that America will take the doubles rubber.
It must be said that Ivan Dodig was a player not to be underestimated. He has been as high as number four in the world in doubles, and won the 2015 French Open with Marcelo Melo. However, Dodig's doubles partner in this match, Marin Cilic, scarcely plays doubles, as shown by his doubles ranking of number 256 in the world. Therefore, presumably, he would be the major weakness on the court. However, that did not turn out to be the case.
Instead, it was Mike Bryan who was the weak spot out there, causing major issue for the American squad. With a serve that was broken often, and which I could not say was even at the level of serve you'd see on the ATP Challenger Tour, while doing enough with the rest of his game to make up for his serving deficiencies, it was a disastrous day for Mike. It was very upsetting watching the match, as the Bryan Brothers as a tandem have clearly lost a step out there, which an experienced doubles player like Dodig was quick to exploit. And while Cilic played well, the Bryans just couldn't seem to put him in tough positions at the net, which might have also allowed his recent best-of-five issues to enter the front of his mind. But, In the end, Dodig/Cilic won the match in four sets, and the tie would go on to Sunday.
I must say, my expectations for John Isner beating a rejuvenated Marin Cilic were not high. I thought John had a chance, and certainly felt like he would take a set, but Cilic is a singles major champion and certainly not someone to be underestimated. John, however, put in a slightly disheartening performance, losing in straights sets, and only even being able to reach a tiebreak in the first set. In that first set John had a set point on Cilic's serve in the tiebreak, but couldn't convert, as Cilic managed to win the point after initially being on the defensive. In the second and third sets, Isner's huge serve was broken. Isner also never managed to break Cilic's big serve, losing out on his first, and only break chance. The tie was all-square, two apiece.
It seemed, to me, as if Isner felt he had done his job when he beat Coric on Friday, and never truly believed that he had what it took to beat Cilic. And this same lack of belief is what makes it disappointing that John pulled out of the Olympics and an ATP 250 event in Atlanta instead. It seems as if John's thinking is, "I don't think I can beat those top guys, so why try?" And I believe it is this type of mindset which has hindered John throughout his career, and was in full display yesterday, once more, against Marin.
The fifth rubber was between Jack Sock and Borna Coric. Sock came into the match with all of the momentum with his huge comeback victory over Cilic. That was the type of match which changes a career, as Sock not only beat a major champion in the best-of-five format, but did so when the odds were certainly against him. I expected him to come into this match oozing with confidence. And against Coric, a solid player, but not a guy with big weapons, I thought that Jack would be able to dictate play and pull out the victory. However, from the very start, Sock looked very low-energy out there, as if he were physically done from the match against Cilic.
All Coric really had to do was play good defense, get balls back in play, and wait for Sock to implode. The forehand that Jack is known for did not have the same bite as we are accustomed to seeing. And, I believe, it all stems back to Jack's fitness. I have been very critical of Sock in the past for not being fit enough to compete at the highest level on tour. His performances in Atlanta last year and in the Houston Final this year were a real indicator that Jack needs to be working harder on his fitness. Yesterday was yet another example of how he needs to be in better shape. Now, it seems like adrenaline during the Cilic match is what got him through that match, and when that adrenaline was gone, Sock could not handle the physical demands of another best-of-five match, especially against a defensive-minded Coric. Borna won the match in four sets, winning tie for Croatia 3-2. Croatia moved on to the Davis Cup Semifinals.
So, what can be done to make sure that a disappointing tie like this never happens again? I think that the United States should adjust who is playing on the team. I will start off by saying that I think that the Bryans should get to continue to play the doubles rubber until they retire. They have earned the right to have this opportunity, and there is no other American doubles player that is good enough to even approach the current level of Mike and Bob Bryan.
However, I would put different players in for John Isner and Jack Sock. I think American tennis should start looking to the future. Players such as Taylor Fritz, Frances Tiafoe, Stefan Kozlov, and Tommy Paul should be given an early start playing for the United States Davis Cup team. Yes, these guys might not be winning matches immediately, but they are the building blocks for American tennis, and while the United States might not win the Davis Cup this year, if you allow young players such as Fritz, Tiafoe, Kozlov, and Paul to get Davis Cup experience early in their careers, then this will be beneficial for years down the road, and maybe in five years the United States can win Davis Cup once more.
Putting some of these young players out there might not be a popular choice, initially. I understand that, but with the game that these young Americans have shown, I think they could surprise some folks, possibly even winning a round or two next year, if a combination of these four players, based on the surface played on, were the singles players for the United States Davis Cup team next season.
But, even if you don't like my idea for how to change up the United States Davis Cup team, based on the disappointment this past weekend, it is quite clear that a change of some sort, either with in regards to who is in the lineup or who is our captain, must occur.
Friday, June 12, 2015
ATP Stuttgart Semifinals Predictions
So, I've decided maybe once a week to do some Semifinals predictions for a tournament going on in that week and this is my first of this weekly installment. This week's tournament will be: ATP Stuttgart.
Rafael Nadal vs. Gael Monfils
In this big name clash, struggling Rafael Nadal takes on unpredictable Gael Monfils with a spot in the Final of ATP Stuttgart, an ATP 250 event, on the line. Both players are in, for their standards, mediocre form going into the tournament. For the first time since 2009, and only the second time since 2005, Nadal did not win the French Open. In fact, Rafa didn't even put up much of a fight in his highly anticipated clash with Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals of the French Open. Nadal lost in straight sets and was even handed a 6-1 third set loss to Novak.
But, although it was surprising in the way Nadal lost, the entirety of the late spring clay court season (which excludes Rio and Buenos Aires) certainly foreshadowed that Rafa's dominance at the tournament was not set in stone this season. Rafa lost in straight sets to Djokovic, Fognini, Murray, and Wawrinka, looking slow and off. In fact, Nadal has not looked right since his appendex issues at the end of last season. This tournament has been a struggle for Rafa, as well. He has been taken to three sets by both Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic and has not looked himself yet this tournament (or year for that matter). And although he was able to wear both Marcos and Bernie down in the third set, that is a much tougher task against Gael.
While Gael Monfils started the clay court season strong, he started to slide as the weeks went on. He started off the clay season in Monte Carlo where he made the Semifinals, including straight set wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer. However, over the next two tournaments in Bucharest and Madrid, he went on to win only three of his next five matches, unexpected given his prowess on the surface. Monfils then didn't play at Rome, and then played three tough matches at Roland Garros before meekly bowing out to Roger Federer with a 6-1 loss in the fourth set against Roger.
In this tournament, Monfils took out clay courter Andreas Haider-Maurer in two tiebreaks, which was a good way to ease him into the clay court season. What concerned me about this match was Gael seemed more worried about putting on a show than winning, but Monfils proved that he was very worried about winning in his next match. Monfils had his most impressive win since Monte Carlo today, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in Philipp's home country in three sets. For me, it was an unexpected win, but it showed that Monfils was taking this tournament seriously.
In the head to head, Nadal leads 10-2. It's important to note, however, that these two have never met on grass before. While they haven't played in 2015, the two have squared off in 2014, with Nadal winning both matches. While Nadal won in three sets in Doha, Rafa only gave up six games in demolishing Gael at the Australian Open. However, if we take away clay, which is the less like grass than hard courts and is also Nadal's favorite surface, Rafa's record is only 6-2, with him winning in straight sets in four of those matches.
Rafa has dominated this rivalry but is playing on what is by far his worst surface (although that's not saying much, he has won Wimbledon twice) and has generally looked shakier than Gael in his first two matches. However, I beleive that the concentration that Nadal shows on every point in comparison to Gael's numerous mental vacations during a match to be the difference. Rafael Nadal wins 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
Marin Cilic vs. Viktor Troicki
The other semifinal match up is a very interesting clash between Marin Cilic and Viktor Troicki. Both players are no slouches on grass, with Troicki making the Round of 16 at Wimbledon before, and Marin having a great run to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon, beating former Finalist Tomas Berdych in straight sets and even pushing Novak to five sets in their Quarterfinals match last year. It was the beginning of a hot streak for Cilic which concluded with him winning the US Open in September.
Both players were very shaky during the late spring clay court season. Viktor only won four matches from Monte Carlo to Roland Garros and accumulated a poor record of 4-6. This included three losses in his first match played. In five of Viktor's six clay season losses, he lost in straight sets too, so his level of competitiveness over the past couple of months has not been too high (including a poor effort at Roland Garros in which he lost to Simone Bolleli in straights, only winning nine games in the process).
At this tournament, Troicki is playing much better. He has only lost one set in three matches played, and today, he beat Sam Groth who was undefeated in his seven previous matches of the grass court season (although five of them were challenger matches). His win over Groth had a 6-1 second set, which is really impressive considering that Groth has won of the biggest serves on tour. Troicki should comes into this match full of confidence.
Marin Cilic also had a rough clay court season, although his Roland Garros campaign was a decent one. Before coming to Paris, Cilic had also only won four matches on the dirt, and put together a mediocre record of 4-5 from Monte Carlo through Geneva. This included two exits in his first match at a tournament, and four losses in straight sets. However, at the French Open, Cilic, who has been injured for much of this year, won his first three matches in straight sets, including a surprisingly-easy win over Nice finalist Leonardo Mayer. And although he lost easily to David Ferrer, Cilic had already made a statement that he was going to turn his season around.
Marin's good form continued this tournament. After a straight set win over Matthias Bachinger in his first match, Cilic managed to get past Mischa Zverev in a third set tiebreak. And while this might indicate poor form to an outsider, it is important to note that Mischa was playing in his home country and was on a five match winning streak, including straight set wins over Dominic Thiem and Andreas Seppi. Cilic did very well to make it out of that Zverev match with a win, and should be relieved and play loose against Troicki.
The head to head is very interesting. These two played (excluding a retirement) seven times, with Cilic winning four of the seven. However, the order in which they won is a bit odd. Marin won the first four matches, all on hard courts, only losing two sets in the process. However, in their past three matches, although the most recent being in 2013, Troicki won all three, not losing a set in any of the matches (two on hard, one on clay). This shows that perhaps Viktor discovered the key to Marin's game.
While Cilic's form is rapidly improving, Viktor is playing very well on the grass, and his straight set win over Groth today is very impressive. The fact that Troicki hasn't dropped a set to Cilic also suggests that he has become very comfortable playing that Croat. I think Troicki will be too strong. Viktor Troicki wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
Rafael Nadal vs. Gael Monfils
In this big name clash, struggling Rafael Nadal takes on unpredictable Gael Monfils with a spot in the Final of ATP Stuttgart, an ATP 250 event, on the line. Both players are in, for their standards, mediocre form going into the tournament. For the first time since 2009, and only the second time since 2005, Nadal did not win the French Open. In fact, Rafa didn't even put up much of a fight in his highly anticipated clash with Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals of the French Open. Nadal lost in straight sets and was even handed a 6-1 third set loss to Novak.
But, although it was surprising in the way Nadal lost, the entirety of the late spring clay court season (which excludes Rio and Buenos Aires) certainly foreshadowed that Rafa's dominance at the tournament was not set in stone this season. Rafa lost in straight sets to Djokovic, Fognini, Murray, and Wawrinka, looking slow and off. In fact, Nadal has not looked right since his appendex issues at the end of last season. This tournament has been a struggle for Rafa, as well. He has been taken to three sets by both Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic and has not looked himself yet this tournament (or year for that matter). And although he was able to wear both Marcos and Bernie down in the third set, that is a much tougher task against Gael.
While Gael Monfils started the clay court season strong, he started to slide as the weeks went on. He started off the clay season in Monte Carlo where he made the Semifinals, including straight set wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer. However, over the next two tournaments in Bucharest and Madrid, he went on to win only three of his next five matches, unexpected given his prowess on the surface. Monfils then didn't play at Rome, and then played three tough matches at Roland Garros before meekly bowing out to Roger Federer with a 6-1 loss in the fourth set against Roger.
In this tournament, Monfils took out clay courter Andreas Haider-Maurer in two tiebreaks, which was a good way to ease him into the clay court season. What concerned me about this match was Gael seemed more worried about putting on a show than winning, but Monfils proved that he was very worried about winning in his next match. Monfils had his most impressive win since Monte Carlo today, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in Philipp's home country in three sets. For me, it was an unexpected win, but it showed that Monfils was taking this tournament seriously.
In the head to head, Nadal leads 10-2. It's important to note, however, that these two have never met on grass before. While they haven't played in 2015, the two have squared off in 2014, with Nadal winning both matches. While Nadal won in three sets in Doha, Rafa only gave up six games in demolishing Gael at the Australian Open. However, if we take away clay, which is the less like grass than hard courts and is also Nadal's favorite surface, Rafa's record is only 6-2, with him winning in straight sets in four of those matches.
Rafa has dominated this rivalry but is playing on what is by far his worst surface (although that's not saying much, he has won Wimbledon twice) and has generally looked shakier than Gael in his first two matches. However, I beleive that the concentration that Nadal shows on every point in comparison to Gael's numerous mental vacations during a match to be the difference. Rafael Nadal wins 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
Marin Cilic vs. Viktor Troicki
The other semifinal match up is a very interesting clash between Marin Cilic and Viktor Troicki. Both players are no slouches on grass, with Troicki making the Round of 16 at Wimbledon before, and Marin having a great run to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon, beating former Finalist Tomas Berdych in straight sets and even pushing Novak to five sets in their Quarterfinals match last year. It was the beginning of a hot streak for Cilic which concluded with him winning the US Open in September.
Both players were very shaky during the late spring clay court season. Viktor only won four matches from Monte Carlo to Roland Garros and accumulated a poor record of 4-6. This included three losses in his first match played. In five of Viktor's six clay season losses, he lost in straight sets too, so his level of competitiveness over the past couple of months has not been too high (including a poor effort at Roland Garros in which he lost to Simone Bolleli in straights, only winning nine games in the process).
At this tournament, Troicki is playing much better. He has only lost one set in three matches played, and today, he beat Sam Groth who was undefeated in his seven previous matches of the grass court season (although five of them were challenger matches). His win over Groth had a 6-1 second set, which is really impressive considering that Groth has won of the biggest serves on tour. Troicki should comes into this match full of confidence.
Marin Cilic also had a rough clay court season, although his Roland Garros campaign was a decent one. Before coming to Paris, Cilic had also only won four matches on the dirt, and put together a mediocre record of 4-5 from Monte Carlo through Geneva. This included two exits in his first match at a tournament, and four losses in straight sets. However, at the French Open, Cilic, who has been injured for much of this year, won his first three matches in straight sets, including a surprisingly-easy win over Nice finalist Leonardo Mayer. And although he lost easily to David Ferrer, Cilic had already made a statement that he was going to turn his season around.
Marin's good form continued this tournament. After a straight set win over Matthias Bachinger in his first match, Cilic managed to get past Mischa Zverev in a third set tiebreak. And while this might indicate poor form to an outsider, it is important to note that Mischa was playing in his home country and was on a five match winning streak, including straight set wins over Dominic Thiem and Andreas Seppi. Cilic did very well to make it out of that Zverev match with a win, and should be relieved and play loose against Troicki.
The head to head is very interesting. These two played (excluding a retirement) seven times, with Cilic winning four of the seven. However, the order in which they won is a bit odd. Marin won the first four matches, all on hard courts, only losing two sets in the process. However, in their past three matches, although the most recent being in 2013, Troicki won all three, not losing a set in any of the matches (two on hard, one on clay). This shows that perhaps Viktor discovered the key to Marin's game.
While Cilic's form is rapidly improving, Viktor is playing very well on the grass, and his straight set win over Groth today is very impressive. The fact that Troicki hasn't dropped a set to Cilic also suggests that he has become very comfortable playing that Croat. I think Troicki will be too strong. Viktor Troicki wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
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