So, I've decided maybe once a week to do some Semifinals predictions for a tournament going on in that week and this is my first of this weekly installment. This week's tournament will be: ATP Stuttgart.
Rafael Nadal vs. Gael Monfils
In this big name clash, struggling Rafael Nadal takes on unpredictable Gael Monfils with a spot in the Final of ATP Stuttgart, an ATP 250 event, on the line. Both players are in, for their standards, mediocre form going into the tournament. For the first time since 2009, and only the second time since 2005, Nadal did not win the French Open. In fact, Rafa didn't even put up much of a fight in his highly anticipated clash with Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals of the French Open. Nadal lost in straight sets and was even handed a 6-1 third set loss to Novak.
But, although it was surprising in the way Nadal lost, the entirety of the late spring clay court season (which excludes Rio and Buenos Aires) certainly foreshadowed that Rafa's dominance at the tournament was not set in stone this season. Rafa lost in straight sets to Djokovic, Fognini, Murray, and Wawrinka, looking slow and off. In fact, Nadal has not looked right since his appendex issues at the end of last season. This tournament has been a struggle for Rafa, as well. He has been taken to three sets by both Marcos Baghdatis and Bernard Tomic and has not looked himself yet this tournament (or year for that matter). And although he was able to wear both Marcos and Bernie down in the third set, that is a much tougher task against Gael.
While Gael Monfils started the clay court season strong, he started to slide as the weeks went on. He started off the clay season in Monte Carlo where he made the Semifinals, including straight set wins over Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer. However, over the next two tournaments in Bucharest and Madrid, he went on to win only three of his next five matches, unexpected given his prowess on the surface. Monfils then didn't play at Rome, and then played three tough matches at Roland Garros before meekly bowing out to Roger Federer with a 6-1 loss in the fourth set against Roger.
In this tournament, Monfils took out clay courter Andreas Haider-Maurer in two tiebreaks, which was a good way to ease him into the clay court season. What concerned me about this match was Gael seemed more worried about putting on a show than winning, but Monfils proved that he was very worried about winning in his next match. Monfils had his most impressive win since Monte Carlo today, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in Philipp's home country in three sets. For me, it was an unexpected win, but it showed that Monfils was taking this tournament seriously.
In the head to head, Nadal leads 10-2. It's important to note, however, that these two have never met on grass before. While they haven't played in 2015, the two have squared off in 2014, with Nadal winning both matches. While Nadal won in three sets in Doha, Rafa only gave up six games in demolishing Gael at the Australian Open. However, if we take away clay, which is the less like grass than hard courts and is also Nadal's favorite surface, Rafa's record is only 6-2, with him winning in straight sets in four of those matches.
Rafa has dominated this rivalry but is playing on what is by far his worst surface (although that's not saying much, he has won Wimbledon twice) and has generally looked shakier than Gael in his first two matches. However, I beleive that the concentration that Nadal shows on every point in comparison to Gael's numerous mental vacations during a match to be the difference. Rafael Nadal wins 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
Marin Cilic vs. Viktor Troicki
The other semifinal match up is a very interesting clash between Marin Cilic and Viktor Troicki. Both players are no slouches on grass, with Troicki making the Round of 16 at Wimbledon before, and Marin having a great run to the Quarterfinals at Wimbledon, beating former Finalist Tomas Berdych in straight sets and even pushing Novak to five sets in their Quarterfinals match last year. It was the beginning of a hot streak for Cilic which concluded with him winning the US Open in September.
Both players were very shaky during the late spring clay court season. Viktor only won four matches from Monte Carlo to Roland Garros and accumulated a poor record of 4-6. This included three losses in his first match played. In five of Viktor's six clay season losses, he lost in straight sets too, so his level of competitiveness over the past couple of months has not been too high (including a poor effort at Roland Garros in which he lost to Simone Bolleli in straights, only winning nine games in the process).
At this tournament, Troicki is playing much better. He has only lost one set in three matches played, and today, he beat Sam Groth who was undefeated in his seven previous matches of the grass court season (although five of them were challenger matches). His win over Groth had a 6-1 second set, which is really impressive considering that Groth has won of the biggest serves on tour. Troicki should comes into this match full of confidence.
Marin Cilic also had a rough clay court season, although his Roland Garros campaign was a decent one. Before coming to Paris, Cilic had also only won four matches on the dirt, and put together a mediocre record of 4-5 from Monte Carlo through Geneva. This included two exits in his first match at a tournament, and four losses in straight sets. However, at the French Open, Cilic, who has been injured for much of this year, won his first three matches in straight sets, including a surprisingly-easy win over Nice finalist Leonardo Mayer. And although he lost easily to David Ferrer, Cilic had already made a statement that he was going to turn his season around.
Marin's good form continued this tournament. After a straight set win over Matthias Bachinger in his first match, Cilic managed to get past Mischa Zverev in a third set tiebreak. And while this might indicate poor form to an outsider, it is important to note that Mischa was playing in his home country and was on a five match winning streak, including straight set wins over Dominic Thiem and Andreas Seppi. Cilic did very well to make it out of that Zverev match with a win, and should be relieved and play loose against Troicki.
The head to head is very interesting. These two played (excluding a retirement) seven times, with Cilic winning four of the seven. However, the order in which they won is a bit odd. Marin won the first four matches, all on hard courts, only losing two sets in the process. However, in their past three matches, although the most recent being in 2013, Troicki won all three, not losing a set in any of the matches (two on hard, one on clay). This shows that perhaps Viktor discovered the key to Marin's game.
While Cilic's form is rapidly improving, Viktor is playing very well on the grass, and his straight set win over Groth today is very impressive. The fact that Troicki hasn't dropped a set to Cilic also suggests that he has become very comfortable playing that Croat. I think Troicki will be too strong. Viktor Troicki wins 6-4, 3-6, 6-3.
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