As COVID-19 wreaks havoc across the world, I thought about what good, if any, could possibly come out of this terrible pandemic. Coronavirus has brought much of the world to a halt, so there's plenty of time to think about tennis reform.
Before Indian Wells was cancelled, the plan was for ball kids to not handle the towels (towels would be on chairs) and to wear gloves while performing their duties on court. The question, then, that I have is: Why has it taken a global pandemic for this type of reform to be fully brought to the forefront of those in charge of tennis?
Even if we didn't have highly contagious, dangerous disease out there, what has stopped the tennis authorities from implementing such a change earlier?
At the Next Gen Finals event for the ATP, towel racks were placed on court so that ball kids would not have to touch the players' sweaty towels. Sure, it might take an extra second or two for the player to walk to the towel rack, but it is certainly worth it.
Besides sweat, almost certainly the players' hair and skin cells were smeared across those towels. And if a player was sick, the ball kids were at especially high risk.
The reception of the towel rack wasn't outstanding. According to The Telegraph's Charlie Eccleshare, Stefanos Tsitsipas stated, "it's the ball kids' job to provide them." This was when Tsitsipas was in the Next Gen Finals in 2018, so he might have evolved his view since then. But regardless, it shouldn't be the ball kids' job to hand players' a dirty towel. Pandemic or not.
Something interesting in Indian Wells' plans was the introduction of gloves. And it makes sense, right? Even if not touching the towels, the ball kids still have to touch the balls themselves. The same balls that the sweaty players hold before they serve and that smash into the asphalt/clay/grass many, many times throughout the match.
Not to mention that if a ball goes into the stands and a fan throws the ball back, that fan might also not be feeling well. So, it makes sense, at least to me, that ball kids should be heavily encouraged to wear gloves, no matter the state of public health around the world.
Perhaps I sound like I'm being hypersensitive given the state of the pandemic, but momentum has been building for ball kid reform for quite some time, with Fernando Verdasco's October 2018 treatment of a ball kid providing momentum for positive change. It should never be forgotten that ball kids are worthy of the same respect given to others in the tennis universe.
Due to coronavirus, July 13th is the soonest we will see tennis, as of now. And so many of us are eager to get back to the court as quickly as possible. But, when we do get back, let's not forget about the innovations that Indian Wells showed us just prior to its cancellation.
Ball kids are very important in the game of tennis in the sense that they keep the flow of the game working really well. Instead of tennis being a start-stop process, as players collect balls from around the court, ball kids keep the pace of play high.
So, let's start showing these invaluable members of the tennis community the respect they deserve, even if we have to delay the match a couple seconds so a player can towel himself/herself off.
Because without the ball kids, matches would be going a lot slower.
So, I'm imploring the ATP, WTA, and ITF: the COVID-19 pandemic is bad enough, let's see if we can get a little bit of good out of a terrible situation.
And ball kid reform as described in this post would be a good thing for the game.
Monday, April 6, 2020
Wednesday, March 18, 2020
Thoughts Regarding Tennis and COVID-19
So, this blog post is just as much as about myself working through issues related to tennis and coronavirus as much as it is about trying to provide clarity for others. Quite frankly, coronavirus has wrecked havoc to the tennis season. But, at this point, tennis is the very least of the vast, vast majority of the world's concerns.
This certainly feels like a bleak time in the world's history and this feeling is certainly a reality. Kirsten Flipkens' sentiment in this tweet from March 15th is certainly a good way of looking at this world crisis.
COVID-19
I'm not an infectious disease, so I won't pretend to be an expert, but this is a good link for learning the very basics about coronavirus (specifically COVID-19) if you don't already know the specifics. Essentially, COVID-19 is a contagious disease that started in Wuhan, China, late last year. The main symptoms of COVID-19 are the patient having a fever, being tired, and having a cough that is dry. The link above answers many of the other questions you have about this strain of coronavirus and, rather than repeat their answers here, it's better to look at the Q&A if you want to learn more.Impact on ATP, WTA, and ITF
Honestly, the impact on tennis really isn't important at this point, but this is a tennis blog and so I will break it down. The first major domino to fall was the cancellation of the outdoors hard court BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Indian Wells is a Masters 1000 for men and Premier Mandatory for women, so it's right below the ATP and WTA Finals events in terms of importance. From the perspective of an American, Indian Wells was one of the first American major events to be postponed (or cancelled), so this came as a shock.
It also came as a shock to the players, where some vented on Twitter for being out of the loop and finding out on the social media platform instead of from their governing body (WTA or ATP) directly. It's understandable that the tours would be scrambling, but it can certainly be frustrating, from the players' point of view, if they aren't getting information about the sport that they rely on for their livelihood in a timely manner.
Indian Wells was technically postponed, so there's a chance that it is played later this year. But, given the French Open's move (which I will discuss later), it seems less likely now. But, in a time like this, who knows.
March 12th was a busy day for tennis postponements/cancellations. The ITF postponed events until April 20th, at the earliest. The ITF is involved in events like Futures tournaments, Fed Cup, and Davis Cup. Therefore, anything within those areas are postponed.
Also on March 12th, the Miami Open was cancelled until 2021. Miami, like Indian Wells, is a Masters 1000 event for the ATP and Premier Mandatory for the WTA, so this was another major cancellation. The sunshine swing was officially over, at least at this point.
On this same date, the ATP announced a six week hiatus from the tour due to COVID-19. There are many tournaments affected by this ruling across the United States and Europe. This ruling also affects the ATP Challenger Tour, which is under the ATP's jurisdiction. The Challenger Tour was suspended, which included the tournaments currently being played in Potchefstroom and Nur-Sultan.
The WTA took a more incremental approach to the postponement/cancellation dilemma. On March 12th, The WTA stated that the Miami Open and the Volvo Car Open (Charleston green clay event) would not be happening. Then, later in the day on March 12th, the WTA cancelled Challenger in Guadalajara during the second week of Indian Wells and the International event set to start on April 6th in Bogota.
Finally, on March 16th, the WTA suspended the entire tour until May 2nd. This means that the indoor clay tournament in Stuttgart, and the outdoor clay events in Istanbul and Prague wouldn't occur. This stoppage was set a little longer than the ATP's, but at least I presume that the extension of the ATP hiatus would have been extended to at least as long as the WTA's.
Update: As reported by Gaspar Ribeiro Lanca, the ATP, WTA, and ITF announced that tennis is called off until June 7th. A freeze in the rankings will occur during this time.
Here is the updated list of tournaments that won't be played due to COVID-19.
Update: As reported by Gaspar Ribeiro Lanca, the ATP, WTA, and ITF announced that tennis is called off until June 7th. A freeze in the rankings will occur during this time.
Here is the updated list of tournaments that won't be played due to COVID-19.
French Open
The French Open, one of tennis' four major tournaments, announced on March 17th that the tournament would be moved to the back half of September through the beginning of October, as opposed to its usual late May through early June dates.
This spins the tennis calendar on its head much more so than before. As tennis journalist Jose Morgado points out, there are many ATP and WTA events that were supposed to be played during the French Open, it seems unilaterally, decided to change their dates.
There was confusion all around, whether it be the ATP's Player's Council, per Morgado, or even the WTA's head Steve Simon, as tennis journalist Christopher Clarey points out. It seems that the French Open's move was a total shock for many involved.
Morgado also makes the good point that the US Open ends six days before Roland Garros! The logistics of having a slam in such close proximity is, let's be honest, a nightmare. The US Open, given their statement, are clearly not happy with the French Open, either.
But, at the same time, former tennis player Mark Petchey has provided good perspective on the matter, stating that the ability to still have the major and make such massive amounts of money in such a time of crisis and instability in the world.
It's certainly true that getting to play all four majors this year, even if it's inconvenient and some people in the world would have to make sacrifices. But, in the time of a pandemic, everyone isn't going to be able to get their way completely. It's important to just accept that, even if the French Open is coming off selfishly in this manner.
Overall
However, the economic impact of cancelling so much tennis is huge for players and others who make their money from tennis are suffering greatly right now. Even for players that were planning on playing or qualifying for Indian Wells or Miami, that was a big opportunity to make a lot of money that could fund much of the rest of the year and get an immediate boost in the rankings. For players planning on playing ITF events and Challengers, and tournaments workers who were relying on these tournaments to make a living, this crisis is even more of a disaster.
This certainly feels like a bleak time in the world's history and this feeling is certainly a reality. Kirsten Flipkens' sentiment in this tweet from March 15th is certainly a good way of looking at this world crisis.
Anything Positive?
To bring a small breath of positivity in this time, I want to state that I was very excited to see that Tsvetana Pironokva is coming back to the WTA Tour! She has been gone from the WTA due to having a child and is ready to see if she can reach new heights on the WTA Tour, having gotten as high as No. 31 in the World. Pironkova made the semifinals of Wimbledon in 2010, beating Venus Williams in straight sets in the quarterfinals before a semifinal loss to Vera Zvonareva.
It's going to be great to see Pironkova back out on the tennis court. Hopefully we can all band together and get through this world health crisis and we can see her, and every other professional tennis player, on court soon.
Stay safe, y'all!
Thursday, January 16, 2020
Men's Australian Open Draw Thoughts
The Australian Open always has a level of uncertainty surrounding it. Whose good form will continue into the upcoming season? Who's trained well in the off-season? How will players handle the heat of an Australian summer? And will be there be a player making their major semifinal debut, like Hyeon Chung and Stefanos Tsitsipas in years past?
The 2020 version of these questions will be answered in Melbourne in the next couple of weeks! Here, I give my best predictions for the Australian Open. I fully expect most of these predictions to blow up in my face.
Oh well.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. Nick Kyrgios Beats Rafael Nadal in Round of 16
Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios certainly have a history. It's clear that Nadal doesn't like Kyrgios and Kyrgios doesn't like Nadal. Kyrgios also tends to his play his best tennis against Nadal. So, what better drama than for Nadal to meet Kyrgios at Nick's home major?
The draw sets up nicely for this to happen. Nadal shouldn't lose a second set going into the fourth round. Hugo Dellien and then the winner of Federico Delbonis/Joao Sousa is about as easy of a first two rounds as Nadal could have hoped for. None of those three players have the weapons to make Nadal uncomfortable. Delbonis does have a little power in his game, but he's so inconsistent that Nadal would have a field day playing Federico. These matches should warm Nadal up nicely. The seed he would face in the third round is Pablo Carreno Busta, another player who does not hit particularly big from either his serve nor groundstrokes and who would not be a threat to Rafa.
Kyrgios' draw also sets up well for a Round of 16 meeting. Sonego in the first round, while having a bigger serve and forehand, has been comfortably handled by Nick in the past and I don't suspect that he has the game to hang with a motivated Nick. He would then take on the winner of Cuevas and Simon. Cuevas has had a terrible start to the season and would get blown off the court by Kyrgios. Simon's ability to keep rallies going might bother Kyrgios somewhat, but Kyrgios' clear advantage of serve, and thus ability to get into lots of Simon's service games, bodes well for his chances. The seed on the other side of Kyrgios' mini-section is Karen Khachanov, who after a very beginning to the season, has started to fall apart. It's not good that he didn't get a break point and Lajovic's serve at ATP Cup and then he lost immediately to John Millman in Auckland.
Kyrgios likes how Nadal's ball sits up in his strike zone. Kyrgios will also have the crowd behind him. In a match like this, it's also important to remember that Rafa really didn't have much recovery time during the off-season. Even his Abu Dhabi exhibition match with Stefanos Tsitsipas was an intense and long match. Nadal also looked slightly off during ATP Cup, without his usual abundance of energy.
This is setting up well for a Nick Kyrgios upset.
2. Casper Ruud Makes 2nd Week of Major for the First Time
Casper Ruud started off the season very strong at ATP Cup. Ruud went 2-1, with wins over John Isner and Fabio Fognini. His loss to Daniil Medvedev is nothing to scoff over. It's clear that Ruud has put in the work over the offseason, and this is translating to his results on-court.
Ruud is known for his forehand. It's clear that he trains at the Nadal Academy, because he tries to emulate Nadal, just a right-handed version of him. The spin and force on his forehand are very difficult for opponents to handle.
Ruud's first round is against Egor Gerasimov, by no means a pushover. But, Gerasimov has not started off the season strong, losing both of his matches so far. He lost to Marton Fucsovics in the first round of Doha and then lost to Harold Mayot in his opening match in the Bendigo II Challenger. While Mayot is an up-and-coming player, that was a match Gerasimov really should be winning at this point in his career.
Yes, I know he probably would have to play Alexander Zverev in the second round. But, Zverev played terribly at the ATP Cup. Zverev only won one set during three consecutive losses to Alex De Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Denis Shapovalov. That doesn't exactly exude confidence in Zverev for this major. Not to mention, that Zverev has repeatedly fallen short of expectations when it comes to the grand slams.
If their ATP Cup forms continue onto the Australian Open, I fully expect Ruud to beat Zverev. Then, in a potential third round against likely Nicoloz Basilashvili (the other seed in the mini-section)/Kwon Soon-Woo/Fernando Verdasco, Ruud would have a very respectable shot to reach his first ever slam second week.
3. Tommy Paul Makes Some Noise
Tommy Paul has been getting better and better throughout the past couple of seasons and based on how he's played in Adelaide, it seems that he ready to stay on the ATP Tour. In Adelaide, Paul has qualified and made the semifinals without dropping a set. This includes wins over Nicolas Jarry, Aljaz Bedene, Pablo Cuevas, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
In the Australian Open draw, he is in a tough mini-section, facing Leonardo Mayer in the first round, and then potentially Grigor Dimitrov in his second match, which would precede Denis Shapovalov/Jannik Sinner in his third match.
Given such a draw, it's hard to predict that Paul is going to run through his draw and make the fourth. But, what I can comfortably state is that Paul will make some noise. I think at the very least, he will beat Mayer and play Dimitrov incredibly close.
Many may only know Paul for challenging Thiem in the first round of Roland Garros last season. But, Paul has gotten even better since that match. Paul's serve and forehand in Adelaide have been very impressive. Huge serve and then dictating play very well with his heavy forehand.
Paul and Ruud's games actually remind me of each other's and the thing that both of them are doing well is defending the backhand side.
4. Novak Djokovic Makes Final With Ease
If you are a Novak Djokovic fan and initially look at his draw, you might see a bunch of landmines that would prevent him from reaching the final. However, I see it differently. I think Djokovic has a relatively straightforward path to the final.
His first round match is against Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff is a big-server and someone who can hit the cover off of the ball. However, in their two head to head matchups, Djokovic has not dropped a set. In fact, in their last match at the French Open last season, Djokovic only dropped seven games over the course of three sets! Djokovic, the best returner in tennis history, handles power players very well, and at his best tournament, should not be troubled by Struff.
Tatsuma Ito nor any qualifier (who Ito will have to play in the first round) have the game to match Djokovic. Even guys like Emil Ruusuvuori and JJ Wolf would get completely neutralized by Djokovic's game.
In the third round, Djokovic would likely face Dan Evans or Yoshihito Nishioka. Evans, while having a magnificent ATP Cup, could very well be run down due to the ATP Cup and Adelaide. His touch shots and backhand slice also wouldn't trouble Djokovic. Nishioka, with his heavy lefty forehand, has the game where he will try to out-grind opponents from the baseline. Only Nadal has the ability to do that against Djokovic, although perhaps Medvedev will able to do that soon. Nishioka doesn't hit a hard enough ball to be able to trouble Novak.
Djokovic's round of 16 opponent would likely be one of Diego Schwartzman/Lloyd Harris/Dusan Lajovic. Lloyd Harris doesn't have the rally tolerance to trouble Djokovic and Novak would be able to dictate play against Schwartzman /Lajovic.
Stefanos Tsitsipas or Roberto Bautista Agut is the likely quarterfinal opponent. Tsitsipas has shown the ability to beat Djokovic in best-of-three, but a best-of-five win at the Australian Open is another animal. Tsitsipas would have to flatten out his groundstrokes and play at a higher risk level for, in all probability, four to five hours. I don't trust Tsitsipas to be able to do this.
Bautista Agut has the ability to hang with Djokovic from the baseline in long rallies, but Djokovic's advantage from the baseline wing, better serve, and ability to convert his opportunities when he sees openings during rallies sets him apart from Bautista Agut.
Roger Federer is the likely semifinal matchup for Djokovic. That would obviously be tough, but I think Djokovic is happier to see Federer on his side of the draw than Medvedev. In ATP Cup, Medvedev pushed Djokovic to the brink and point-after-point turn into long battles. Federer, despite dominating Djokovic at the ATP Finals, is a little older and has a pretty tough draw. Krajinovic potentially in the second round, Hurkacz/Millman in the third, fourth round against Dimitrov/Shapovalov/Sinner/Paul, with a quarterfinal against Berrettini/Coric would be pretty brutal. While it is absolutely ridiculous to count Federer out, playing against a tired Federer wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Djokovic.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Corentin Moutet vs Marin Cilic
This should be a really fun match. Corentin Moutet just reached the final in Doha, beating Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, and Stanislas Wawrinka in succession. Moutet's game is very entertaining to watch. He utilizes a lot of variety, using all areas of the court and coming to net often. The different spins he puts on his groundstrokes can befuddle opponents.
Moutet is going up against Marin Cilic, who has had an average start to the season. Discounting the exhibition in Kooyong, Cilic went 2-1, but neither of his wins were against top 90 players. Cilic has a big serve and really goes after his groundstrokes, but when he is off, he is really off. It will be very interesting to see how he handles Moutet's eclectic game.
If I had to predict this match, I would say that Cilic wins a tight one. Despite their recent forms, Cilic is still the better player. But, with that said, expect Moutet to keep the fans engaged and the score close.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Monfils over Kyrgios in 5
Medvedev over Goffin in 4
Federer over Berrettini in 4
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 3
Semifinals
Medvedev over Monfils in 4
Djokovic over Federer in 4
Final
Djokovic over Medvedev in 5
Novak Djokovic will be your 2020 Australian Open champion!
The 2020 version of these questions will be answered in Melbourne in the next couple of weeks! Here, I give my best predictions for the Australian Open. I fully expect most of these predictions to blow up in my face.
Oh well.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. Nick Kyrgios Beats Rafael Nadal in Round of 16
Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios certainly have a history. It's clear that Nadal doesn't like Kyrgios and Kyrgios doesn't like Nadal. Kyrgios also tends to his play his best tennis against Nadal. So, what better drama than for Nadal to meet Kyrgios at Nick's home major?
The draw sets up nicely for this to happen. Nadal shouldn't lose a second set going into the fourth round. Hugo Dellien and then the winner of Federico Delbonis/Joao Sousa is about as easy of a first two rounds as Nadal could have hoped for. None of those three players have the weapons to make Nadal uncomfortable. Delbonis does have a little power in his game, but he's so inconsistent that Nadal would have a field day playing Federico. These matches should warm Nadal up nicely. The seed he would face in the third round is Pablo Carreno Busta, another player who does not hit particularly big from either his serve nor groundstrokes and who would not be a threat to Rafa.
Kyrgios' draw also sets up well for a Round of 16 meeting. Sonego in the first round, while having a bigger serve and forehand, has been comfortably handled by Nick in the past and I don't suspect that he has the game to hang with a motivated Nick. He would then take on the winner of Cuevas and Simon. Cuevas has had a terrible start to the season and would get blown off the court by Kyrgios. Simon's ability to keep rallies going might bother Kyrgios somewhat, but Kyrgios' clear advantage of serve, and thus ability to get into lots of Simon's service games, bodes well for his chances. The seed on the other side of Kyrgios' mini-section is Karen Khachanov, who after a very beginning to the season, has started to fall apart. It's not good that he didn't get a break point and Lajovic's serve at ATP Cup and then he lost immediately to John Millman in Auckland.
Kyrgios likes how Nadal's ball sits up in his strike zone. Kyrgios will also have the crowd behind him. In a match like this, it's also important to remember that Rafa really didn't have much recovery time during the off-season. Even his Abu Dhabi exhibition match with Stefanos Tsitsipas was an intense and long match. Nadal also looked slightly off during ATP Cup, without his usual abundance of energy.
This is setting up well for a Nick Kyrgios upset.
2. Casper Ruud Makes 2nd Week of Major for the First Time
Casper Ruud started off the season very strong at ATP Cup. Ruud went 2-1, with wins over John Isner and Fabio Fognini. His loss to Daniil Medvedev is nothing to scoff over. It's clear that Ruud has put in the work over the offseason, and this is translating to his results on-court.
Ruud is known for his forehand. It's clear that he trains at the Nadal Academy, because he tries to emulate Nadal, just a right-handed version of him. The spin and force on his forehand are very difficult for opponents to handle.
Ruud's first round is against Egor Gerasimov, by no means a pushover. But, Gerasimov has not started off the season strong, losing both of his matches so far. He lost to Marton Fucsovics in the first round of Doha and then lost to Harold Mayot in his opening match in the Bendigo II Challenger. While Mayot is an up-and-coming player, that was a match Gerasimov really should be winning at this point in his career.
Yes, I know he probably would have to play Alexander Zverev in the second round. But, Zverev played terribly at the ATP Cup. Zverev only won one set during three consecutive losses to Alex De Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Denis Shapovalov. That doesn't exactly exude confidence in Zverev for this major. Not to mention, that Zverev has repeatedly fallen short of expectations when it comes to the grand slams.
If their ATP Cup forms continue onto the Australian Open, I fully expect Ruud to beat Zverev. Then, in a potential third round against likely Nicoloz Basilashvili (the other seed in the mini-section)/Kwon Soon-Woo/Fernando Verdasco, Ruud would have a very respectable shot to reach his first ever slam second week.
3. Tommy Paul Makes Some Noise
Tommy Paul has been getting better and better throughout the past couple of seasons and based on how he's played in Adelaide, it seems that he ready to stay on the ATP Tour. In Adelaide, Paul has qualified and made the semifinals without dropping a set. This includes wins over Nicolas Jarry, Aljaz Bedene, Pablo Cuevas, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.
In the Australian Open draw, he is in a tough mini-section, facing Leonardo Mayer in the first round, and then potentially Grigor Dimitrov in his second match, which would precede Denis Shapovalov/Jannik Sinner in his third match.
Given such a draw, it's hard to predict that Paul is going to run through his draw and make the fourth. But, what I can comfortably state is that Paul will make some noise. I think at the very least, he will beat Mayer and play Dimitrov incredibly close.
Many may only know Paul for challenging Thiem in the first round of Roland Garros last season. But, Paul has gotten even better since that match. Paul's serve and forehand in Adelaide have been very impressive. Huge serve and then dictating play very well with his heavy forehand.
Paul and Ruud's games actually remind me of each other's and the thing that both of them are doing well is defending the backhand side.
4. Novak Djokovic Makes Final With Ease
If you are a Novak Djokovic fan and initially look at his draw, you might see a bunch of landmines that would prevent him from reaching the final. However, I see it differently. I think Djokovic has a relatively straightforward path to the final.
His first round match is against Jan-Lennard Struff. Struff is a big-server and someone who can hit the cover off of the ball. However, in their two head to head matchups, Djokovic has not dropped a set. In fact, in their last match at the French Open last season, Djokovic only dropped seven games over the course of three sets! Djokovic, the best returner in tennis history, handles power players very well, and at his best tournament, should not be troubled by Struff.
Tatsuma Ito nor any qualifier (who Ito will have to play in the first round) have the game to match Djokovic. Even guys like Emil Ruusuvuori and JJ Wolf would get completely neutralized by Djokovic's game.
In the third round, Djokovic would likely face Dan Evans or Yoshihito Nishioka. Evans, while having a magnificent ATP Cup, could very well be run down due to the ATP Cup and Adelaide. His touch shots and backhand slice also wouldn't trouble Djokovic. Nishioka, with his heavy lefty forehand, has the game where he will try to out-grind opponents from the baseline. Only Nadal has the ability to do that against Djokovic, although perhaps Medvedev will able to do that soon. Nishioka doesn't hit a hard enough ball to be able to trouble Novak.
Djokovic's round of 16 opponent would likely be one of Diego Schwartzman/Lloyd Harris/Dusan Lajovic. Lloyd Harris doesn't have the rally tolerance to trouble Djokovic and Novak would be able to dictate play against Schwartzman /Lajovic.
Stefanos Tsitsipas or Roberto Bautista Agut is the likely quarterfinal opponent. Tsitsipas has shown the ability to beat Djokovic in best-of-three, but a best-of-five win at the Australian Open is another animal. Tsitsipas would have to flatten out his groundstrokes and play at a higher risk level for, in all probability, four to five hours. I don't trust Tsitsipas to be able to do this.
Bautista Agut has the ability to hang with Djokovic from the baseline in long rallies, but Djokovic's advantage from the baseline wing, better serve, and ability to convert his opportunities when he sees openings during rallies sets him apart from Bautista Agut.
Roger Federer is the likely semifinal matchup for Djokovic. That would obviously be tough, but I think Djokovic is happier to see Federer on his side of the draw than Medvedev. In ATP Cup, Medvedev pushed Djokovic to the brink and point-after-point turn into long battles. Federer, despite dominating Djokovic at the ATP Finals, is a little older and has a pretty tough draw. Krajinovic potentially in the second round, Hurkacz/Millman in the third, fourth round against Dimitrov/Shapovalov/Sinner/Paul, with a quarterfinal against Berrettini/Coric would be pretty brutal. While it is absolutely ridiculous to count Federer out, playing against a tired Federer wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Djokovic.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Corentin Moutet vs Marin Cilic
This should be a really fun match. Corentin Moutet just reached the final in Doha, beating Milos Raonic, Fernando Verdasco, and Stanislas Wawrinka in succession. Moutet's game is very entertaining to watch. He utilizes a lot of variety, using all areas of the court and coming to net often. The different spins he puts on his groundstrokes can befuddle opponents.
Moutet is going up against Marin Cilic, who has had an average start to the season. Discounting the exhibition in Kooyong, Cilic went 2-1, but neither of his wins were against top 90 players. Cilic has a big serve and really goes after his groundstrokes, but when he is off, he is really off. It will be very interesting to see how he handles Moutet's eclectic game.
If I had to predict this match, I would say that Cilic wins a tight one. Despite their recent forms, Cilic is still the better player. But, with that said, expect Moutet to keep the fans engaged and the score close.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Monfils over Kyrgios in 5
Medvedev over Goffin in 4
Federer over Berrettini in 4
Djokovic over Tsitsipas in 3
Semifinals
Medvedev over Monfils in 4
Djokovic over Federer in 4
Final
Djokovic over Medvedev in 5
Novak Djokovic will be your 2020 Australian Open champion!
Thursday, November 21, 2019
Some Thoughts on the 2019 ATP Season
There is a certain rhythm to the ATP tennis season. Mondays/Tuesdays are packed with opening round ATP Tour and ATP Challenger Tour matches, the fields start to whittle down on Wednesday/Thursdays, and Friday-Sundays are the best of the week battling it out. But, this week is different. All that is left of the non-Futures season is one indoor clay Challenger in Maia and the ITF's Davis Cup. With Stefanos Tsitsipas beating Dominic Thiem in a third set tiebreak in the last ATP main tour match of the year this past weekend, it seems time to reflect on what has been a fascinating 2019 season.
Main Storylines
1. Djokovic and Nadal Dominate Majors
The four majors of the season were split evenly between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. Novak Djokovic won the Australian Open (def. Nadal) and Wimbledon (def. Federer), while Rafael Nadal won the French Open (def. Thiem) and the US Open (def. Medvedev). Of course, the results without context barely scratch the surface of the stories of those titles. Djokovic saved 2 match points on his way to beating Roger Federer in that final. One point, in a way, changed the trajectory of the entire season for both Djokovic and Federer.
The results alone also don't explain the courageous fightback from Daniil Medvedev in the US Open final, coming back from two sets to love down and tying the match at two sets all. The results don't explain how Medvedev was within a point of leveling the fifth set after getting down break in the fifth. Yet, in the end, Nadal won.
Yet, while Federer and Medvedev were so close to making this an evenly split year of four players with one major apiece, the simple reality is that when looking back on this season years from now, the winners will be remembered in the major count and the stories of the losers will subside into the background.
It could very well be that the reason Nadal will most likely have more majors in the future is because of Federer failing to take match point against Djokovic and Medvedev failing to take break point to get back to 5-5 in the fifth. If Djokovic ends up with the most majors, then saving match points at Wimbledon and in the 2011 US Open semifinal against Federer could be the reasons why.
Amazing how the sport of tennis works.
Amazing how the sport of tennis works.
2. Younger Stars Gaining Control
While it is true that none of the younger stars in the game won a major this season, there is plenty of reason to believe that 2020 will be a breakthrough year for many of the ATP's stars, aged 23 and younger. In 2019, the younger stars started to gain some control of the ATP landscape almost exclusively dominated previously by the Big 3 (Djokovic, Nadal, and Federer).
We just witnessed the latest rising star breakthrough, with Stefanos Tsitsipas winning his first tournament larger than an ATP 250 at the ATP Finals. However, Tsitsipas really started to make progress earlier this season when he beat Roger Federer in the round of 16 from a set down. He continued his ascent towards the top of the game beating Rafael Nadal, on clay, in the Madrid semifinals. His match with Wawrinka in the fourth round of the French Open was one of the matches of the season, with viewers coming away with a positive perception of Tsitsipas' game even in defeat.
Other players to make their names better known in 2020 include Italians Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner. Berrettini, with his huge serve and nasty forehand, went on a tear around the time of Stuttgart during the grass court season. He won that tournament in Stuttgart and was generally at a very high level, barely giving opponents any opportunity on return. His backhand slice also worked very well on grass, as it is a lower bouncing surface and his slice stays very low. Berrettini's big breakthrough at a slam didn't happen at Wimbledon, where he meekly lost to Roger Federer in the round of 16. Instead, it was at the US Open where Berrettini pulled through with a deep run, making the semifinals before losing to Nadal.
Sinner hasn't had a breakthrough similar to the likes of Tsitsipas and Berrettini, but the 18 year-old Italian will almost assuredly be a mainstay on the ATP Tour shortly. Sinner, in an interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, talked about how he decided to mainly forego juniors and play professionally from a young age. This approach has clearly worked well, as Sinner started at World No. 551 in the rankings, but is currently at World No. 78, moving up over 450 places in the rankings over the course of the season. This was due to a lot of success on the ATP Challenger Tour, which saw him win three Challenger titles. He also had a sprinkling of success on the ATP main tour and won the Next Gen ATP Finals, even though there was no points attached to the event. I fully expect Sinner to win an ATP main tour title next season, if not multiple.
Other younger players who really made a statement in 2019 include Alex De Minaur, the 20 year-old Australian who won his first three ATP main tour titles in 2019. De Minaur's speed and counterpunching ability are fantastic. Denis Shapovalov had good first and final thirds of the season, making the Miami semifinals in the first third, and winning Stockholm along with an appearance in the finals of the Paris Indoors Masters 1000 in the final third. Shapovalov is learning to control his aggression better and his net game is improving. Shapovalov's fellow Canadian, Felix Auger-Aliassime, made three ATP finals at 18 years old.
Of course, there is also Alexander Zverev, who finished the season at a "paltry" World No. 7. The fact that this year, with a title, a Masters 1000 final, grand slam quarterfinal, and ATP Finals semifinals is seen as a ho-hum year shows the extremely high expectations that the tennis world has given to the 22 year-old.
I want to end this section with a little recognition of perhaps the biggest breakthrough of the season, 23 year-old Daniil Medvedev's rise from World No. 16 at the beginning of the season to World No. 5 currently. Sure, that isn't the biggest rise in the world, but breaking into the top 5 is a monumental task and Medvedev's run during the late summer/early fall was certainly impressive. His run included a Washington final, Canada final, Cincinnati title, US Open final, St. Petersburg title, and Shanghai title. Just typing out his run is exhausting!
Medvedev's year started with him pushing Djokovic hard in the Australian Open fourth round for Djokovic's toughest match of the tournament. Perhaps this match foreshadowed Medvedev's run to come. Medvedev was able to combine his flat groundstrokes, with top-class depth, defense, and counterpunching, making opponents very uncomfortable. Sure, he ended the year season with four straight losses, but with the physicality of his tennis and the number of matches he played from late July to the middle of October, a losing streak is to be expected in the waning matches left in his year.
3. Can't Forget About Dominic Thiem
At 26 years old, Thiem is too old for me to justify putting him in the "Younger" category, but he still deserves recognition of being, along with Medvedev and Tsitsipas, one of the best three players outside of the Big 3 this season.
Thiem finally laid to rest the (in my opinion) absurd idea that he is a clay court specialist. If you didn't think Thiem could play on hard after his epic match against Nadal in the 2018 US Open quarterfinals, then you must surely be convinced now by his play on hard.
Thiem's prowess on hard courts was showcased throughout the season. Thiem beat Federer to win Indian Wells for his first Masters 1000 title. Thiem picked up two ATP 500 titles on hard/indoor hard in Beijing (def. Tsitsipas) and Vienna (def. Schwartzman). At the ATP Finals, he beat Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the group stages, then Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. While he ultimately fell to Tsitsipas in the final, he certainly had a good showing at this tournament. It's not inconceivable anymore that Thiem could win the Australian Open or US Open.
That's not to say that Thiem turned into a bum on clay courts, far from it. In fact, he was debatably the second best on the surface this year, behind, of course, Nadal. For starters, Thiem made the final of the biggest clay court event of the season: Roland Garros. This included an epic five-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. In regular tour events, Thiem won a 500 event in Barcelona and a 250 in Kitzbuhel. If Nadal gets injured or starts to dip in form, Thiem will be right there as a favorite to win the French Open.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets His Moment in the Sun
Roberto Bautista Agut had the year of his life and I think that it's important to recognize his year. For starters, Bautista Agut had his best results in majors in his career. At the Australian Open, Bautista Agut made the quarterfinals before losing to Tsitsipas. Bautista Agut beat Murray, Khachanov, and Cilic during that quarterfinal run.
Bautista Agut also made the semifinals of Wimbledon. Bautista Agut made the semifinals having lost only one set along the way, including a straight sets win over Khachanov. Bautista Agut was even able to get a set off of Novak Djokovic in his semifinal match, but ultimately lost in four sets.
Speaking of Novak Djokovic, Bautista Agut's title in Doha to start the year included a win over Djokovic in the semifinals. In the quarterfinals, Bautista Agut beat Stan Wawrinka. Bautista Agut also made the quarterfinals of three Masters 1000 events, and moved up in the rankings from World No. 24 at the start of the year to World No. 9 currently. Bautista Agut's World No. 10 ranking in August was the first time he had ever been in the top 10 before.
5. Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah Dominate Doubles
I want to recognize some of the amazing play in doubles this year, specifically by the Colombian duo of Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah.
Cabal and Farah started the year ranked as co-World No. 5s in the doubles rankings, yet they had neither had ever won a (non-mixed) doubles major. At the 2018 Australia Open, they came close, but in the final, they lost in straight sets to Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic. However, in this year's Australian Open, Cabal and Farah lost in the first round to Jack Sock and Jackson Winthrow. At the French Open, they lost in the semifinals to Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin.
Finally, at Wimbledon, the Colombian team had their breakthrough at a major. In an epic five-set Wimbledon final, Cabal and Farah beat Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in five sets for their first major title. Winning Wimbledon also meant that they would be co-World No. 1s for the first time. At the US Open, in an incredible atmosphere where many were in support of Cabal and Farah, the Colombian duo beat Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos in the final in straight sets to take the title.
Cabal and Farah would end the season as co-World No. 1s. In addition to winning their first two doubles majors, they also won Rome (Masters 1000), Barcelona (ATP 500), and Eastbourne (ATP 250). There's a certain harmony when these two are on the court together, where each player knows not only exactly where to position himself, but also have a complete understanding of where his partner will be on the court, as well. It's this ability to work together that allows the duo to be so successful.
Shoutouts to 3 Relatively Unheralded Players With Great Seasons
1. Soonwoo Kwon
Soonwoo Kwon had the season of his life in 2019. Kwon started the year ranked World No. 235, but got as high as World No. 81 before finishing the season at World No. 88. Kwon won two Challenger titles this year in Yokohama and Seoul. Kwon qualified for Wimbledon and the US Open, only dropping one set in Wimbledon qualifying. He also made the quarterfinals of his first ATP Tour event in Los Cabos before falling in three sets to Guido Pella.
Kwon has a great attitude both regarding his future ambitions and his play in-match. In a different interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, Kwon stated that the top was he wanted to be a top 10 player and how he doesn't back down until a match is over.
2. Mikael Ymer
Mikael Ymer started the season at World No. 255, but is finishing at World No. 74. It has been quite a rise for Ymer, who played in six Challenger finals and won four Challengers this season. He won his Challengers on a variety of surface, with one victory on hard, one on clay, and two on indoor hard. Ymer is such a tough player to face. He has an extremely heavy forehand and does not miss much more from the baseline. He is also a very fast mover around the court.
Ymer won his first main draw match at a major, taking out Blaz Rola in the first round before losing to Alexander Zverev in the second round. Ymer has set himself up to play a lot of ATP events next year and I am excited to see how he fares!
3. Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer, who played his college tennis at Tulane University, started the year at World No. 161, but rose as high as No. 81, before ending the year at World No. 94. When Koepfer got to No. 86 in September, it was the first time in his careeer that he had made it into the top 100. Koepfer won the first Challenger of the year in June, beating Dennis Novak in a tight three-setter in the final to raise the trophy.
Koepfer won his first main draw major mach this year at Wimbledon, then played fantastic tennis at the US Open. In New York, Koepfer reached the fourth round, which included victories over Reilly Opelka and Nicoloz Basilashvili. Koepfer even took the first set off of Daniil Medvedev and came within a fourth set tiebreak of a fifth set.
2020 Major Predictions
Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
The surface at the Australian Open suits Djokovic's game perfectly.
French Open: Rafael Nadal
Thiem is getting better and better, but Rafael Nadal is the clear favorite until Thiem can prove he can beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic
Would love to pick Federer here, but he does seem to be slowing down a half-step to me. I don't trust him to win seven straight best-of-five matches in 2020. Djokovic is clearly the second best grass court player in this era, so he gets the nod at Wimbledon.
US Open: Dominic Thiem
Going to take a shot-in-the-dark with this one. Thiem has improved so much on hard courts and has the stamina to last at majors. While it would certainly be surprising that Thiem would win a hard court major first, the only reason he would win the US Open before the French Open is Rafael Nadal's prowess on clay. Thiem is in better shape than most players on tour, his groundstrokes are nasty. I think he's the first non-Big 3 member in a while to get a slam.
Enjoy the offseason, everybody!
Thiem's prowess on hard courts was showcased throughout the season. Thiem beat Federer to win Indian Wells for his first Masters 1000 title. Thiem picked up two ATP 500 titles on hard/indoor hard in Beijing (def. Tsitsipas) and Vienna (def. Schwartzman). At the ATP Finals, he beat Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic in the group stages, then Alexander Zverev in the semifinals. While he ultimately fell to Tsitsipas in the final, he certainly had a good showing at this tournament. It's not inconceivable anymore that Thiem could win the Australian Open or US Open.
That's not to say that Thiem turned into a bum on clay courts, far from it. In fact, he was debatably the second best on the surface this year, behind, of course, Nadal. For starters, Thiem made the final of the biggest clay court event of the season: Roland Garros. This included an epic five-set win over Novak Djokovic in the semifinals. In regular tour events, Thiem won a 500 event in Barcelona and a 250 in Kitzbuhel. If Nadal gets injured or starts to dip in form, Thiem will be right there as a favorite to win the French Open.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets His Moment in the Sun
Roberto Bautista Agut had the year of his life and I think that it's important to recognize his year. For starters, Bautista Agut had his best results in majors in his career. At the Australian Open, Bautista Agut made the quarterfinals before losing to Tsitsipas. Bautista Agut beat Murray, Khachanov, and Cilic during that quarterfinal run.
Bautista Agut also made the semifinals of Wimbledon. Bautista Agut made the semifinals having lost only one set along the way, including a straight sets win over Khachanov. Bautista Agut was even able to get a set off of Novak Djokovic in his semifinal match, but ultimately lost in four sets.
Speaking of Novak Djokovic, Bautista Agut's title in Doha to start the year included a win over Djokovic in the semifinals. In the quarterfinals, Bautista Agut beat Stan Wawrinka. Bautista Agut also made the quarterfinals of three Masters 1000 events, and moved up in the rankings from World No. 24 at the start of the year to World No. 9 currently. Bautista Agut's World No. 10 ranking in August was the first time he had ever been in the top 10 before.
5. Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah Dominate Doubles
I want to recognize some of the amazing play in doubles this year, specifically by the Colombian duo of Juan Sebastian Cabal and Robert Farah.
Cabal and Farah started the year ranked as co-World No. 5s in the doubles rankings, yet they had neither had ever won a (non-mixed) doubles major. At the 2018 Australia Open, they came close, but in the final, they lost in straight sets to Oliver Marach and Mate Pavic. However, in this year's Australian Open, Cabal and Farah lost in the first round to Jack Sock and Jackson Winthrow. At the French Open, they lost in the semifinals to Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin.
Finally, at Wimbledon, the Colombian team had their breakthrough at a major. In an epic five-set Wimbledon final, Cabal and Farah beat Mahut and Edouard Roger-Vasselin in five sets for their first major title. Winning Wimbledon also meant that they would be co-World No. 1s for the first time. At the US Open, in an incredible atmosphere where many were in support of Cabal and Farah, the Colombian duo beat Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos in the final in straight sets to take the title.
Cabal and Farah would end the season as co-World No. 1s. In addition to winning their first two doubles majors, they also won Rome (Masters 1000), Barcelona (ATP 500), and Eastbourne (ATP 250). There's a certain harmony when these two are on the court together, where each player knows not only exactly where to position himself, but also have a complete understanding of where his partner will be on the court, as well. It's this ability to work together that allows the duo to be so successful.
Shoutouts to 3 Relatively Unheralded Players With Great Seasons
1. Soonwoo Kwon
Soonwoo Kwon had the season of his life in 2019. Kwon started the year ranked World No. 235, but got as high as World No. 81 before finishing the season at World No. 88. Kwon won two Challenger titles this year in Yokohama and Seoul. Kwon qualified for Wimbledon and the US Open, only dropping one set in Wimbledon qualifying. He also made the quarterfinals of his first ATP Tour event in Los Cabos before falling in three sets to Guido Pella.
Kwon has a great attitude both regarding his future ambitions and his play in-match. In a different interview with the ATP's Andrew Elchenholz, Kwon stated that the top was he wanted to be a top 10 player and how he doesn't back down until a match is over.
2. Mikael Ymer
Mikael Ymer started the season at World No. 255, but is finishing at World No. 74. It has been quite a rise for Ymer, who played in six Challenger finals and won four Challengers this season. He won his Challengers on a variety of surface, with one victory on hard, one on clay, and two on indoor hard. Ymer is such a tough player to face. He has an extremely heavy forehand and does not miss much more from the baseline. He is also a very fast mover around the court.
Ymer won his first main draw match at a major, taking out Blaz Rola in the first round before losing to Alexander Zverev in the second round. Ymer has set himself up to play a lot of ATP events next year and I am excited to see how he fares!
3. Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer, who played his college tennis at Tulane University, started the year at World No. 161, but rose as high as No. 81, before ending the year at World No. 94. When Koepfer got to No. 86 in September, it was the first time in his careeer that he had made it into the top 100. Koepfer won the first Challenger of the year in June, beating Dennis Novak in a tight three-setter in the final to raise the trophy.
Koepfer won his first main draw major mach this year at Wimbledon, then played fantastic tennis at the US Open. In New York, Koepfer reached the fourth round, which included victories over Reilly Opelka and Nicoloz Basilashvili. Koepfer even took the first set off of Daniil Medvedev and came within a fourth set tiebreak of a fifth set.
2020 Major Predictions
Australian Open: Novak Djokovic
The surface at the Australian Open suits Djokovic's game perfectly.
French Open: Rafael Nadal
Thiem is getting better and better, but Rafael Nadal is the clear favorite until Thiem can prove he can beat Nadal at Roland Garros.
Wimbledon: Novak Djokovic
Would love to pick Federer here, but he does seem to be slowing down a half-step to me. I don't trust him to win seven straight best-of-five matches in 2020. Djokovic is clearly the second best grass court player in this era, so he gets the nod at Wimbledon.
US Open: Dominic Thiem
Going to take a shot-in-the-dark with this one. Thiem has improved so much on hard courts and has the stamina to last at majors. While it would certainly be surprising that Thiem would win a hard court major first, the only reason he would win the US Open before the French Open is Rafael Nadal's prowess on clay. Thiem is in better shape than most players on tour, his groundstrokes are nasty. I think he's the first non-Big 3 member in a while to get a slam.
Enjoy the offseason, everybody!
Monday, September 9, 2019
About the US Open Final
I wanted to use this space in my blog as a post-mortem of sorts on the US Open final and the US Open more generally. I will then look have a quick look to the rest of the season on the ATP Tour for Nadal and Medvedev. There were lots of different storylines and levels of intrigue that came with both the players involved and the actual play on the court that I want to try to untangle for myself, more than anyone else.
Before this North American hard court season, many tennis fans knew Daniil Medvedev more for a racist incident, throwing coins at a chair umpire, and telling off Stefanos Tsitsipas than for what he could produce on the court. The rapid development of his game was partially obscured by these incidents, but also by other young breakthrough, such as Denis Shapovalov beating Rafael Nadal in Montreal 2017 and Stefanos Tsitsipas defeating at the Australian Open 2019.
Medvedev patiently waited for his turn in the spotlight. He wasn't putting up bad results by any means. He had won his first three ATP Tour titles in 2018, including a 500 event, and won his fourth title in February of this year. Stefanos Tsitsipas still hasn't won above a 250 yet, but because he got that big win over Federer at the Australian Open on his ways to the semifinals, people looked at him differently.
At Wimbledon, Medvedev lost a third round match to David Goffin 7-5 in the fifth. Medvedev was up two sets to one and was up a break in the fifth set. With a round of 16 matchup against the mercurial Fernando Verdasco next, this seemed like a lost opportunity for Medvedev. That elusive slam quarterfinal slipped out of Daniil's grasps. Now, despite having lost 6-4 in the final to Nadal, the story is quite different.
Tennis fans knew from the way he battled Novak Djokovic in a very physical four-set match at the Australian Open this year that Medvedev played a physical style, but I don't suspect many (myself included) realized just what great shape he had gotten himself in. An ESPN graphic last night showed that Medvedev had never won a five-set match in his life. So, it seems almost like an oxymoron to proclaim what great shape he is in, given that he has never summited the hardest physical test in the sport. However, having watched him the past few weeks, I can't help but feel that way.
Since his first match in Washington on July 30th, Medvedev has played 23 matches of tennis. That's 60 sets of tennis. He's won 20 of those matches and 48 of those sets, taking home a Masters 1000 title and runner-up trophies at another Masters 1000 and a 500 event. The US Open was by far the most demanding of him, only winning two of his seven matches in straight sets, and playing a total of 27 sets. Medvedev was cramping up against Dellien, down a set and a break against Koepfer, and down two sets and a break against one of the greatest fighters in the history of the game, Rafael Nadal.
That's damn impressive.
Speaking of Nadal, of course I want to devote a lot of space to him. I have to admit I am a Federer fan, but it's hard not to respect a player like Nadal. Nadal is sometimes looked at as if he is weak on grass and hard courts. Yet, that could not be further from the case. The guy has two Wimbledon titles and, now, five hard court majors. Take out the French Open and that's still the resume of an all-time great.
Nadal won two of those majors, the 2017 US Open and 2019 US Open, after the age of 30. It's not like he's only winning these titles off of clay when he's young. At the 2017 US Open, Nadal dropped three sets over the course of the entire tournament, and was never pushed to five sets. This year, including a withdrawal, Nadal was pushed to five sets once, accounting for two of his three sets lost. And losing two sets to Medvedev in this form is nothing to be ashamed of.
Despite an extensive injury history, Nadal's major results this year of an Australian Open final (loss to Djokovic), French Open title, Wimbledon semifinal (loss to Federer), and US Open title is unbelievable. Nadal's been injured much more than Federer over the course of his career, so despite the difference in age, it's just as impressive what Nadal is doing at 33 as what Federer is doing at 37/38. But, I'm going to try to refrain from making comparisons with Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, because it's better to just sit back and watch the incredible things that these three players can do.
Nadal's results aren't confined to majors, either, not by any means. Since turning 31, Nadal has also won five Masters 1000 titles, including two on hard courts. He's won a couple 500 events too, including a hard court win at the China Open. In other words, Nadal has been impressive both at the majors and at regular tour events, and not just on clay.
Everything that's to say about Nadal has already been said, so I'll leave my gushing of his career at that.
So, what about the match specifically yesterday? As Nadal was on his way of going up two sets to love, I thought that it might be in his best interest to do what won him his match against Djokovic in Cincinnati, and red-line. I felt like Nadal was wearing Medvedev down and that Medvedev was partially doing this to himself with his poor court positioning, frequently putting himself well behind the baseline.
Now, this isn't to say that Medvedev can't get depth on the ball from such a position. One of the most remarkable things that continued to surprise me during his summer run, until I came to expect it, was the depth Medvedev was able to hit from tough positions on the court. It was amazing how consistently Medvedev was able to get the ball deep from areas that you would expect him to hit short balls. Of course this type of court positioning did open up Medvedev to do more running, as Nadal was able to pull him around the court, but until the last ball was played, it felt that even if Medvedev's fuel tank was around empty, that he was always right near a gas station.
Nadal looked wearier and wearier as the match went on, but at the age of 33, it is absolutely remarkable what great shape he was in. Playing a 23 year-old didn't phase Nadal, he is still one of the most fit players on tour. The match yesterday lasted nearly five hours, yet Nadal was still chasing balls down, making ridiculous defensive plays when necessary, and covering the court so well that even though you knew Nadal was exhausted, you also knew there was no way his body was going to give out anytime soon. What helped make this match special was that both players were visibly exhausted, yet forged on.
Down two sets and a break against Nadal is usually curtains, but the mental and physical resolve that Medvedev showed to come back and win those two sets is why it's hard to take his five-set record that seriously at this point. No, he hasn't won a five set match, but as crazy as it is to say, that doesn't matter. How he almost came back from two breaks down in the fifth, having a break point to get back to five all, is the cherry on top in terms of seeing him as more fit than almost any other player on tour. Don't forget about how much tennis he's played before this.
The match, besides the physical challenges, featured some awesome tennis. The angles, variety, rally tolerance, and precision that both players showed was world-class and an absolute treat to watch. There's drama because a match is going on for a long time and drama because both players are at an extremely high level and it's exciting to see who's tennis comes out on top. This match was both of those. Again, a showing of how best-of-five should never leave the majors.
So, Nadal won his 19th major, putting him one behind Federer for most of all-time. Given the head-to-head, especially with how Nadal is winning more and more majors off of clay, it would be very hard to put Federer above Nadal in terms of the "Greatest of All Time" rankings if Nadal ends up with equal or more majors. However, Federer I think still has a major or two left in him (he was a point away at Wimbledon this year) and Djokovic might end up passing both. But, again, let's stray away from the "Greatest of all Time" debate and look at this more as the "Era Where The Three Best Ever Players Played."
So, how does the rest of the season play out? I don't see Nadal playing much. He's supposed to play Laver Cup, but let's see what happens. Maybe Shanghai and/or Paris, along with the ATP Tour Finals? Medvedev has a packed schedule, but who knows if he will end up playing all of these. He definitely will want to rest more, maybe only playing mandatory events, so he doesn't wear himself out, a la Dominic Thiem in years past.
The season feels over, but it isn't. There's still tournaments to be played, money and points to be won.
But, if the last big memory of the 2019 season is the US Open final, then I'm glad it will be of Nadal and Medvedev battling it out.
Before this North American hard court season, many tennis fans knew Daniil Medvedev more for a racist incident, throwing coins at a chair umpire, and telling off Stefanos Tsitsipas than for what he could produce on the court. The rapid development of his game was partially obscured by these incidents, but also by other young breakthrough, such as Denis Shapovalov beating Rafael Nadal in Montreal 2017 and Stefanos Tsitsipas defeating at the Australian Open 2019.
Medvedev patiently waited for his turn in the spotlight. He wasn't putting up bad results by any means. He had won his first three ATP Tour titles in 2018, including a 500 event, and won his fourth title in February of this year. Stefanos Tsitsipas still hasn't won above a 250 yet, but because he got that big win over Federer at the Australian Open on his ways to the semifinals, people looked at him differently.
At Wimbledon, Medvedev lost a third round match to David Goffin 7-5 in the fifth. Medvedev was up two sets to one and was up a break in the fifth set. With a round of 16 matchup against the mercurial Fernando Verdasco next, this seemed like a lost opportunity for Medvedev. That elusive slam quarterfinal slipped out of Daniil's grasps. Now, despite having lost 6-4 in the final to Nadal, the story is quite different.
Tennis fans knew from the way he battled Novak Djokovic in a very physical four-set match at the Australian Open this year that Medvedev played a physical style, but I don't suspect many (myself included) realized just what great shape he had gotten himself in. An ESPN graphic last night showed that Medvedev had never won a five-set match in his life. So, it seems almost like an oxymoron to proclaim what great shape he is in, given that he has never summited the hardest physical test in the sport. However, having watched him the past few weeks, I can't help but feel that way.
Since his first match in Washington on July 30th, Medvedev has played 23 matches of tennis. That's 60 sets of tennis. He's won 20 of those matches and 48 of those sets, taking home a Masters 1000 title and runner-up trophies at another Masters 1000 and a 500 event. The US Open was by far the most demanding of him, only winning two of his seven matches in straight sets, and playing a total of 27 sets. Medvedev was cramping up against Dellien, down a set and a break against Koepfer, and down two sets and a break against one of the greatest fighters in the history of the game, Rafael Nadal.
That's damn impressive.
Speaking of Nadal, of course I want to devote a lot of space to him. I have to admit I am a Federer fan, but it's hard not to respect a player like Nadal. Nadal is sometimes looked at as if he is weak on grass and hard courts. Yet, that could not be further from the case. The guy has two Wimbledon titles and, now, five hard court majors. Take out the French Open and that's still the resume of an all-time great.
Nadal won two of those majors, the 2017 US Open and 2019 US Open, after the age of 30. It's not like he's only winning these titles off of clay when he's young. At the 2017 US Open, Nadal dropped three sets over the course of the entire tournament, and was never pushed to five sets. This year, including a withdrawal, Nadal was pushed to five sets once, accounting for two of his three sets lost. And losing two sets to Medvedev in this form is nothing to be ashamed of.
Despite an extensive injury history, Nadal's major results this year of an Australian Open final (loss to Djokovic), French Open title, Wimbledon semifinal (loss to Federer), and US Open title is unbelievable. Nadal's been injured much more than Federer over the course of his career, so despite the difference in age, it's just as impressive what Nadal is doing at 33 as what Federer is doing at 37/38. But, I'm going to try to refrain from making comparisons with Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, because it's better to just sit back and watch the incredible things that these three players can do.
Nadal's results aren't confined to majors, either, not by any means. Since turning 31, Nadal has also won five Masters 1000 titles, including two on hard courts. He's won a couple 500 events too, including a hard court win at the China Open. In other words, Nadal has been impressive both at the majors and at regular tour events, and not just on clay.
Everything that's to say about Nadal has already been said, so I'll leave my gushing of his career at that.
So, what about the match specifically yesterday? As Nadal was on his way of going up two sets to love, I thought that it might be in his best interest to do what won him his match against Djokovic in Cincinnati, and red-line. I felt like Nadal was wearing Medvedev down and that Medvedev was partially doing this to himself with his poor court positioning, frequently putting himself well behind the baseline.
Now, this isn't to say that Medvedev can't get depth on the ball from such a position. One of the most remarkable things that continued to surprise me during his summer run, until I came to expect it, was the depth Medvedev was able to hit from tough positions on the court. It was amazing how consistently Medvedev was able to get the ball deep from areas that you would expect him to hit short balls. Of course this type of court positioning did open up Medvedev to do more running, as Nadal was able to pull him around the court, but until the last ball was played, it felt that even if Medvedev's fuel tank was around empty, that he was always right near a gas station.
Nadal looked wearier and wearier as the match went on, but at the age of 33, it is absolutely remarkable what great shape he was in. Playing a 23 year-old didn't phase Nadal, he is still one of the most fit players on tour. The match yesterday lasted nearly five hours, yet Nadal was still chasing balls down, making ridiculous defensive plays when necessary, and covering the court so well that even though you knew Nadal was exhausted, you also knew there was no way his body was going to give out anytime soon. What helped make this match special was that both players were visibly exhausted, yet forged on.
Down two sets and a break against Nadal is usually curtains, but the mental and physical resolve that Medvedev showed to come back and win those two sets is why it's hard to take his five-set record that seriously at this point. No, he hasn't won a five set match, but as crazy as it is to say, that doesn't matter. How he almost came back from two breaks down in the fifth, having a break point to get back to five all, is the cherry on top in terms of seeing him as more fit than almost any other player on tour. Don't forget about how much tennis he's played before this.
The match, besides the physical challenges, featured some awesome tennis. The angles, variety, rally tolerance, and precision that both players showed was world-class and an absolute treat to watch. There's drama because a match is going on for a long time and drama because both players are at an extremely high level and it's exciting to see who's tennis comes out on top. This match was both of those. Again, a showing of how best-of-five should never leave the majors.
So, Nadal won his 19th major, putting him one behind Federer for most of all-time. Given the head-to-head, especially with how Nadal is winning more and more majors off of clay, it would be very hard to put Federer above Nadal in terms of the "Greatest of All Time" rankings if Nadal ends up with equal or more majors. However, Federer I think still has a major or two left in him (he was a point away at Wimbledon this year) and Djokovic might end up passing both. But, again, let's stray away from the "Greatest of all Time" debate and look at this more as the "Era Where The Three Best Ever Players Played."
So, how does the rest of the season play out? I don't see Nadal playing much. He's supposed to play Laver Cup, but let's see what happens. Maybe Shanghai and/or Paris, along with the ATP Tour Finals? Medvedev has a packed schedule, but who knows if he will end up playing all of these. He definitely will want to rest more, maybe only playing mandatory events, so he doesn't wear himself out, a la Dominic Thiem in years past.
The season feels over, but it isn't. There's still tournaments to be played, money and points to be won.
But, if the last big memory of the 2019 season is the US Open final, then I'm glad it will be of Nadal and Medvedev battling it out.
Friday, August 23, 2019
Men's US Open Draw Thoughts
The US Open is almost here! We have reached the final major of the 2019 season and players will have one more chance to win a grand slam before the season's end. While in previous blog posts this season, I have done draw breakdowns for the majors, I am going to stray a little from that here. I will be giving my general thoughts about the draw first, before moving on to predictions a very brief analysis.
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. The Big 3 are in the semifinals of a major again
You definitely shouldn't be surprised by this, but I'm just putting it in here for completeness' sake. The Big 3, consisting of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in the best-of-five format. During both the French Open and Wimbledon, three of the four semifinalists were the members of the Big 3, and 5 of the 6 major finalists this season were members of the Big 3. It just doesn't seem fair, but it's reality.
Beating these guys during majors, where the best-of-five format takes away some of the variability in results, has been close to impossible for the vast majority of the field. Sure, a guy like Kyrgios could theoretically do it, but what are the chances he even makes it to the first Big 3 member he would face, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals? Very slim.
2. Grigor Dimitrov has a very good tournament
Dimitrov has been at the butt of jokes this year, given his horrid form, losing seven of his previous eight non-exhibition matches, with a close win over Steve Johnson in Los Cabos his only win. But, with that said, he looked much better last week in Cincinnati against Wawrinka, coming within a tiebreak of beating the three-time major champion.
Dimitrov's draw is also very favorable. Getting an out-of-form Andreas Seppi in the first round is not bad at all, and the potential seeds he would face are not the most intimidating group to play right now (Borna Coric, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori). Raonic retired from his last match in Montreal with injury, while Coric and Nishikori both did not look to be near their best form in Cincinnati. If Dimitrov can beat Seppi and gain some momentum, he could play himself in the form he needs to make a deep run.
3. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas Both Lose in the First Round
No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev has a very tough first round opponent in Radu Albot. Having won a hard court ATP title in Delray Beach and having had a solid summer hard court, Albot won't be an easy out for Zverev. Albot recently beat Marin Cilic in Cincinnati, getting a ton of balls back in play and counterpunching well. Zverev might feel the need to try to end points early and get some more juice on his serve. This might not be the best idea, given that he hit 20 double faults in his previous match in Cincinnati against Miomir Kecmanovic. Zverev has also not adjusted to the best-of-five format as well as his ranking and other accolades would suggest. He's never been past the quarterfinals of a major, and never been to the quarterfinals away from Roland Garros.
No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is at a bit of a summer standstill. He's just 3-3 since Wimbledon and has lost his last three matches. He faces one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, Andrey Rublev. Rublev made the quarterfinals of Cincinnati, beating Roger Federer along the way. In addition, Rublev went to the quarterfinals of Winston-Salem before eventually losing to Denis Shapovalov. This feels like the makings of an upset with Rublev high in confidence, and Tsitsipas lower in confidence. While following the French Open, it seemed the gulf between these players was massive, it does not feel that way anymore.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets to Another Slam Semifinal
Roberto Bautista Agut surprised many when he reached the Wimbledon semifinal, but perhaps, the only thing surprising about it was that his first major semifinal was on grass instead of hard (his best surface). Roberto Bautista Agut's game isn't based on hot shots, or blowing his opponents off the court, but instead is based on consistency, placement, and patience. Bautista Agut hits a fairly flat ball, spreads his shots around the court well, and waits for his opening to attack. Bautista Agut's speed around court is also very impressive and opponents often will press too hard in an effort to get balls past him, trying to create openings when there aren't any available.
Bautista Agut's draw is manageable. The draw in his 16th of the draw is Matteo Berrettini, who is out of form, and who might not even make it to Bautista Agut in the third round. A potential round of 16 match against Rublev, Tsitsipas, or Kyrgios wouldn't be easy, but you I expect Bautista Agut to out-grind any of the players mentioned. A matchup with Thiem or Monfils in the quarterfinals would also be tough. Thiem and Monfils, however, has not been hot-and-cold recently. Monfils did beat Bautista Agut in the Montreal quarterfinal, but I don't trust his fitness over the course of a best-of-five match.
5. Qualifier Hyeon Chung Plays Rafael Nadal Close in the Third Round
Current World No. 151 Hyeon Chung has been injured for much of the past year, but when he's playing well, he's an extremely difficult player to deal with. Chung is best known for making the semifinals of the 2018 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic along the way in straight sets. Chung has won nine Challenger titles in his career, no easy feat, including a straight sets win over Yuichi Sugita in Chengdu during his comeback earlier this month.
During qualifying, Chung destroyed his opponents, giving up no more than three games in a set and easily advancing to the main draw. It's clear that Chung is quickly elevating his game up to levels of his past. Chung's game is effective due to his footspeed, anticipation, and footwork, especially on hard courts. He has good strength, as well, often getting power on balls that he initially looks out of position to get a good hit on.
Chung's first round against Ernesto Escobedo won't be easy. Escobedo recently won a Challenger title himself and when his game is clicking, can hit opponents off of the court. However, I expect Chung to counterpunch well in that match and come through it. In the second round, Chung would play either Fernando Verdasco or Tobias Kamke. Verdasco retired from his most recent match in Cincinnati against Benoit Paire and is not in the best form coming into this tournament. Kamke is also a qualifier and doesn't have the weapons to beat Chung.
Then, in the third round, there would most likely be a showdown between Hyeon Chung and Rafael Nadal. While Nadal certainly looked impressive in winning Toronto, he will find it difficult to hit through Chung's defenses, just as Djokovic struggled at the Australian Open a couple years ago. Chung will come into the match with both the confidence and big-match major experience that will cause him to be less intimidated by Nadal. Nadal's extreme-topspin forehand to the Chung backhand won't be as effective as Nadal would like, as Chung is able to move to his backhand and strike it very cleanly.
With that said, it probably won't be enough to beat an in-form Nadal. But, I expect Chung to keep the match close, winning at least one set and keeping two of the other sets close. However, don't be shocked if this is a five-setter.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Denis Shapovalov
Yes, it seems kind of cheesy for me to pick this All-Canadian matchup featuring the two young stars that we saw in this exact stage last season, but it really is a compelling match. Shapovalov won last year's match in a retirement, with Shapovalov up 4-1 in the third set. The match is well-known for their emotional embrace following the match. No. 18 seed Auger-Aliassime got his revenge this year, beating Shapovalov in straight sets in Madrid.
Shapovalov has really struggled since making the Miami semifinals, having failed to win two matches in a row since Miami. However, Shapovalov recently added Mikhail Youzhny to his team in a coaching trial, and has looked much better in Winston-Salem, winning three matches in a row in straight sets to make the semifinals. While he lost to Hubert Hurkacz, this was a very good week for Shapovalov. Auger-Aliassime played very well for a long period of time this season, making three ATP Tour final. However, he has cooled down a bit since losing in the third round of Wimbledon, going 3-3 during the summer hard court season.
Tough to choose a winner in this one. You could make a convincing case for either player. I think Shapovalov has gotten himself in better form than Auger-Aliassime recently, and because of this, I am picking Shapovalov to win this one.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Medvedev in 4
Federer over Dimitrov in 3
Bautista Agut over Monfils in 5
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Semifinals
Djokovic over Federer in 5
Nadal over Bautista Agut in 4
Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
I have basically given my rational for the four semifinalists in my blurbs above. The Big 3 are just so much better than the rest of the field and Bautista Agut is in the form of his life and I trust him to win more than I trust the rest of the field, sans the Big 3. Medvedev gets major props for winning Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in the process), along with making the finals of Washington DC and Montreal. However, I don't think he will be able to redline over the course of best-off-five like he did against Djokovic in Cincinnati with the best-of-three format, and we saw in Australia that Medvedev will not be able to wear Djokovic down from the baseline in the best-of-five format.
In terms of the semifinals, I think that the loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon holds a lot of scar tissue for Federer and that Federer hasn't completely recovered, mentally, from that match. In another tight, huge match at a major against Djokovic, I just trust Djokovic more to come through in the big moments. Djokovic is in Federer's head, at this point. While Bautista Agut can out-grind many of his opponents, Rafael Nadal is not one of them. Nadal is much more of a dynamic shot-maker compared to Bautista-Agut, and shoudl be able to hit with as enough angles and variety to throw off Bautista-Agut. I look for Nadal to win that match without too much worry.
I can't pick Nadal to beat Djokovic after the final in Australia. Djokovic absolutely dominated that match and has won his last six straight sets in major finals on hard courts, winning both last year's Australian Open and the 2018 US Open (against Juan Martin del Potro) in straight sets. Yes, I have Djokovic playing 5 sets the match before against Federer, but a day' in-between matches should be enough, and I like Djokovic to win his third major of the year, and 17th major overall.
Novak Djokovic will be your 2019 US Open champion!
Don't Be Surprised If:
1. The Big 3 are in the semifinals of a major again
You definitely shouldn't be surprised by this, but I'm just putting it in here for completeness' sake. The Big 3, consisting of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, and Rafael Nadal, are head-and-shoulders above the rest of the field in the best-of-five format. During both the French Open and Wimbledon, three of the four semifinalists were the members of the Big 3, and 5 of the 6 major finalists this season were members of the Big 3. It just doesn't seem fair, but it's reality.
Beating these guys during majors, where the best-of-five format takes away some of the variability in results, has been close to impossible for the vast majority of the field. Sure, a guy like Kyrgios could theoretically do it, but what are the chances he even makes it to the first Big 3 member he would face, Rafael Nadal, in the semifinals? Very slim.
2. Grigor Dimitrov has a very good tournament
Dimitrov has been at the butt of jokes this year, given his horrid form, losing seven of his previous eight non-exhibition matches, with a close win over Steve Johnson in Los Cabos his only win. But, with that said, he looked much better last week in Cincinnati against Wawrinka, coming within a tiebreak of beating the three-time major champion.
Dimitrov's draw is also very favorable. Getting an out-of-form Andreas Seppi in the first round is not bad at all, and the potential seeds he would face are not the most intimidating group to play right now (Borna Coric, Milos Raonic, and Kei Nishikori). Raonic retired from his last match in Montreal with injury, while Coric and Nishikori both did not look to be near their best form in Cincinnati. If Dimitrov can beat Seppi and gain some momentum, he could play himself in the form he needs to make a deep run.
3. Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas Both Lose in the First Round
No. 5 seed Alexander Zverev has a very tough first round opponent in Radu Albot. Having won a hard court ATP title in Delray Beach and having had a solid summer hard court, Albot won't be an easy out for Zverev. Albot recently beat Marin Cilic in Cincinnati, getting a ton of balls back in play and counterpunching well. Zverev might feel the need to try to end points early and get some more juice on his serve. This might not be the best idea, given that he hit 20 double faults in his previous match in Cincinnati against Miomir Kecmanovic. Zverev has also not adjusted to the best-of-five format as well as his ranking and other accolades would suggest. He's never been past the quarterfinals of a major, and never been to the quarterfinals away from Roland Garros.
No. 8 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas is at a bit of a summer standstill. He's just 3-3 since Wimbledon and has lost his last three matches. He faces one of the most dangerous floaters in the draw, Andrey Rublev. Rublev made the quarterfinals of Cincinnati, beating Roger Federer along the way. In addition, Rublev went to the quarterfinals of Winston-Salem before eventually losing to Denis Shapovalov. This feels like the makings of an upset with Rublev high in confidence, and Tsitsipas lower in confidence. While following the French Open, it seemed the gulf between these players was massive, it does not feel that way anymore.
4. Roberto Bautista Agut Gets to Another Slam Semifinal
Roberto Bautista Agut surprised many when he reached the Wimbledon semifinal, but perhaps, the only thing surprising about it was that his first major semifinal was on grass instead of hard (his best surface). Roberto Bautista Agut's game isn't based on hot shots, or blowing his opponents off the court, but instead is based on consistency, placement, and patience. Bautista Agut hits a fairly flat ball, spreads his shots around the court well, and waits for his opening to attack. Bautista Agut's speed around court is also very impressive and opponents often will press too hard in an effort to get balls past him, trying to create openings when there aren't any available.
Bautista Agut's draw is manageable. The draw in his 16th of the draw is Matteo Berrettini, who is out of form, and who might not even make it to Bautista Agut in the third round. A potential round of 16 match against Rublev, Tsitsipas, or Kyrgios wouldn't be easy, but you I expect Bautista Agut to out-grind any of the players mentioned. A matchup with Thiem or Monfils in the quarterfinals would also be tough. Thiem and Monfils, however, has not been hot-and-cold recently. Monfils did beat Bautista Agut in the Montreal quarterfinal, but I don't trust his fitness over the course of a best-of-five match.
5. Qualifier Hyeon Chung Plays Rafael Nadal Close in the Third Round
Current World No. 151 Hyeon Chung has been injured for much of the past year, but when he's playing well, he's an extremely difficult player to deal with. Chung is best known for making the semifinals of the 2018 Australian Open, beating Novak Djokovic along the way in straight sets. Chung has won nine Challenger titles in his career, no easy feat, including a straight sets win over Yuichi Sugita in Chengdu during his comeback earlier this month.
During qualifying, Chung destroyed his opponents, giving up no more than three games in a set and easily advancing to the main draw. It's clear that Chung is quickly elevating his game up to levels of his past. Chung's game is effective due to his footspeed, anticipation, and footwork, especially on hard courts. He has good strength, as well, often getting power on balls that he initially looks out of position to get a good hit on.
Chung's first round against Ernesto Escobedo won't be easy. Escobedo recently won a Challenger title himself and when his game is clicking, can hit opponents off of the court. However, I expect Chung to counterpunch well in that match and come through it. In the second round, Chung would play either Fernando Verdasco or Tobias Kamke. Verdasco retired from his most recent match in Cincinnati against Benoit Paire and is not in the best form coming into this tournament. Kamke is also a qualifier and doesn't have the weapons to beat Chung.
Then, in the third round, there would most likely be a showdown between Hyeon Chung and Rafael Nadal. While Nadal certainly looked impressive in winning Toronto, he will find it difficult to hit through Chung's defenses, just as Djokovic struggled at the Australian Open a couple years ago. Chung will come into the match with both the confidence and big-match major experience that will cause him to be less intimidated by Nadal. Nadal's extreme-topspin forehand to the Chung backhand won't be as effective as Nadal would like, as Chung is able to move to his backhand and strike it very cleanly.
With that said, it probably won't be enough to beat an in-form Nadal. But, I expect Chung to keep the match close, winning at least one set and keeping two of the other sets close. However, don't be shocked if this is a five-setter.
My Favorite First Round Matchup
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Denis Shapovalov
Yes, it seems kind of cheesy for me to pick this All-Canadian matchup featuring the two young stars that we saw in this exact stage last season, but it really is a compelling match. Shapovalov won last year's match in a retirement, with Shapovalov up 4-1 in the third set. The match is well-known for their emotional embrace following the match. No. 18 seed Auger-Aliassime got his revenge this year, beating Shapovalov in straight sets in Madrid.
Shapovalov has really struggled since making the Miami semifinals, having failed to win two matches in a row since Miami. However, Shapovalov recently added Mikhail Youzhny to his team in a coaching trial, and has looked much better in Winston-Salem, winning three matches in a row in straight sets to make the semifinals. While he lost to Hubert Hurkacz, this was a very good week for Shapovalov. Auger-Aliassime played very well for a long period of time this season, making three ATP Tour final. However, he has cooled down a bit since losing in the third round of Wimbledon, going 3-3 during the summer hard court season.
Tough to choose a winner in this one. You could make a convincing case for either player. I think Shapovalov has gotten himself in better form than Auger-Aliassime recently, and because of this, I am picking Shapovalov to win this one.
Predictions
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Medvedev in 4
Federer over Dimitrov in 3
Bautista Agut over Monfils in 5
Nadal over Schwartzman in 4
Semifinals
Djokovic over Federer in 5
Nadal over Bautista Agut in 4
Final
Djokovic over Nadal in 4
I have basically given my rational for the four semifinalists in my blurbs above. The Big 3 are just so much better than the rest of the field and Bautista Agut is in the form of his life and I trust him to win more than I trust the rest of the field, sans the Big 3. Medvedev gets major props for winning Cincinnati (beating Djokovic in the process), along with making the finals of Washington DC and Montreal. However, I don't think he will be able to redline over the course of best-off-five like he did against Djokovic in Cincinnati with the best-of-three format, and we saw in Australia that Medvedev will not be able to wear Djokovic down from the baseline in the best-of-five format.
In terms of the semifinals, I think that the loss to Djokovic at Wimbledon holds a lot of scar tissue for Federer and that Federer hasn't completely recovered, mentally, from that match. In another tight, huge match at a major against Djokovic, I just trust Djokovic more to come through in the big moments. Djokovic is in Federer's head, at this point. While Bautista Agut can out-grind many of his opponents, Rafael Nadal is not one of them. Nadal is much more of a dynamic shot-maker compared to Bautista-Agut, and shoudl be able to hit with as enough angles and variety to throw off Bautista-Agut. I look for Nadal to win that match without too much worry.
I can't pick Nadal to beat Djokovic after the final in Australia. Djokovic absolutely dominated that match and has won his last six straight sets in major finals on hard courts, winning both last year's Australian Open and the 2018 US Open (against Juan Martin del Potro) in straight sets. Yes, I have Djokovic playing 5 sets the match before against Federer, but a day' in-between matches should be enough, and I like Djokovic to win his third major of the year, and 17th major overall.
Novak Djokovic will be your 2019 US Open champion!
Friday, June 28, 2019
Wimbledon Men's Predictions
Wimbledon is almost here! Check out my predictions for Wimbledon below, along with my reasoning! I think tennis fans will be familiar with a few of my semifinalists.
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Edmund in 4
Khachanov over Anderson in 5
Nadal over Simon in 3
Federer over Struff in 3
Semifinals
Djokovic over Khachanov in 4
Federer over Nadal in 4
Final
Federer over Djokovic in 5
Reasoning
I almost feel a little guilty picking the "cop out" of the Big 3 taking up three of the four spots in the semifinals, but it feels very scary picking anyone but them. They've taken up 5 of 8 major semifinal spots this season, with Federer's loss to Tsitsipas in the round of 16 of the Australian Open being the only time that one of the three hasn't made the semifinals so far this year. And that was a very tight match. But, let's go through all the quarters of the draw.
I am projecting three of Djokovic's first four matches at Wimbledon to be not too easy for him. Philipp Kohlschreiber is his first round match and he did have a victory against Djokovic in Indian Wells, although Djokovic has won twice since then and is totally in control of the head to head. Kohlschreiber is also not in the best form coming into this tournament, so he shouldn't be too much of an issue for Novak. Kudla is my second round pick to play Djokovic, and while he understands grass court tennis very well, he doesn't have the weapons to challenge Djokovic.
The round of 16 is going to be, perhaps, Djokovic's toughest match until the final. I have him taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime, a player I am very high on. Auger-Aliassime is only 18 years old, but he is clobbering his serve and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of precision and confidence. I don't think he will be scared of Novak, and he has the weapons to really challenge him. But, at the end of the day, I don't think he is quite good enough to beat Djokovic at a major yet, and so I ave Djokovic advancing to play Kyle Edmund.
I have Edmund reaching the quarterfinals because I think that crowd support is huge for him, and I also really like what I've seen so far from in Eastbourne. In Eastbourne, he has been hitting his forehand huge and dealing with the changes of pace involved with grass court tennis very well. Edmund should beat Munar easily in the first round. I predict that he will then have some very tricky matches in a row with Verdasco, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev, but again, I really love what I've seen from Edmund in Eastbourne. In addition, both Verdasco and Tsitsipas have not looked great on the grass and I can't see either of them advancing too far at Wimbledon. And, with Medvedev, while his game is well-suited for grass, I think his grinding style is too hard to keep up for many rounds in the best-of-five format. I think in a Edmund-Djokovic quarterfinal matchup that it will play out much like their third round last year, with Edmund getting a set, but Djokovic ultimately being too much for him to handle.
This next quarter was the toughest for me to predict, and I honestly have very little idea what's happening. I know Anderson is just coming back from injury, but he obviously did very well last year, and his game is very well-suited for grass. A first round clash with Herbert will be tough, Herbert is great at the net and knows his way around a grass court. However, when push comes to shove, I just trust Anderson more in the big moments of a match like that. His next two rounds I have him facing off with Tipseravic and then Copil. Tipseravic shouldn't trouble Anderson at all, and while Copil has a big serve, the rest of his game isn't up to the standard needed to beat Anderson in a match like this. I have Anderson playing Wawrinka in the fourth round, and Wawrinka is not nearly as good on grass compared to other surfaces. So, I have Anderson advancing there to take on Karen Khachanov.
This was tough selection, but I liked what I saw from Khachanov in Halle, and think that he could bring his good form on grass into Wimbledon. Khachanov plays a very good up-and-comer named Soon Woo Kwon, but I don't think he is quite good enough to challenge Khachanov on grass. My predicted second round for Khachanov would be very tough, as I have him taking on Feiciano Lopez. But, I don't trust Lopez to consistently do well in best-of-five format anymore and have Khachanov winning a tight one. The next two rounds against Bautista Agut and then Zverev wouldn't be easy, but grass is both of their weakest surfaces. I just feel like Khachanov can play at a higher level than Bautista Agut on grass. In terms of Zverev, I also don't trust him at majors and Khachanov will be looking for revenge after Zverev beat him in five sets at the French Open last year.
So, I have Khachanov and Anderson facing off in the quarterfinals. Anderson won their only meeting last year in Miami, taking the match in three sets. However, given that he is still coming back from injury, this match would be a step too far for him, and I think Khachanov would win. Maybe I am just higher on Khachanov than most people?
From the top quarter of the bottom draw, I have Gilles Simon as one of the quarterfinalists. I really loved what I saw from Simon at the Queen's Club, where he was so close to taking the title. His passing shots have been on fire recently, and he's counterpunching so well. I have him easily beating Caruso and Uchiyama in the first two rounds. While Caruso beat Simon at the French Open, Simon is playing significantly better recently. In the next two rounds, I have Simon beating Fognini and Thiem. While both are great players, they are much better on other surfaces compared to grass, and Simon is just much more comfortable on the surface than them.
In the quarterfinals, I have Simon battling Rafael Nadal. I'm not overly confident in Nadal on grass, but it's just really hard to pick against him, especially considering how close he was to the final last year in his epic semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Sugita is a good grass court player, but Nadal just does everything better and with more power, and so Sugita should not present too much of a challenge. A second round match against Nick Kyrgios, however, would be extremely intense and must-see television. At the end of the day, though, Kyrgios' form has been mediocre and Nadal surely still remembers and wants revenge for Kyrgios' win in Acapulco. Nadal wins that one in a tight match.
Nadal would then potentially go up against Denis Shapovalov, who I have beating Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in the second round. Shapovalov has the game for grass, but I just don't think he is consistent enough to get another win over the Spaniard. In the round of 16, I have Nadal beating Dan Evans, a Brit with a nasty backhand slice who is in great form. However, this just comes down to the fact that Nadal is on a different league compared to Evans. Evans slice, while effective against many opponents, shouldn't trouble Nadal too much, he's just at a higher level than most. Against Simon in the quarterfinals, while there should be some long, taxing rallies (even on grass), I just can't see Simon outlasting Nadal here. Nadal advances to the semis.
In the top part of the final quarter, I have Jan-Lennard Struff making it the quarterfinals. I really like how Struff has been playing, as he looked good in Stuttgart before eventually falling to Berrettini. He is serving really well and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of power. Albot will challenge him in the first round match, but ultimately not be able to hit through the court enough to beat him. And while Fritz (his potential second round opponent) is doing well in Eastbourne, having watched both recently, I like Struff to edge out that match in a close one. The next two rounds would be very tough, with Isner in the third round and Nishikori in the fourth round. However, Isner is just coming back from injury and would not be very sharp, and potentially still getting his fitness back. In terms of a matchup with Nishikori, I think that Nishikori's second serve is a major liability on grass, and I believe that Struff would punish him for his second serve.
I have Struff taking on Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. Federer is so accomplished at this tournament, he played very well on clay, and took his good form to Halle where he won the title. There's not much left to say about Federer on grass, I mean, his serve is magnificent, his backhand slice is extremely effective, and he knows the perfect opportunities to go to net. Federer won't be challenged in either of his first two matches, but a potential third round against the mercurial Alexander Bublik (who I have beating the winner of Gasquet-Pouille) would be interesting, as Bublik has a huge serve, and loves putting different spins on the ball which could be effective on grass. However, Federer would be just too solid for Bublik.
In the round of 16, I have Federer taking on Matteo Berrettini, who won the title in Stuttgart and had a good run in Halle. His huge serve and nasty backhand slice would give Federer some issues. However, I think that Federer's chip return on grass would be effective enough that Berrettini wouldn't be able to hold as easily as he would like, and give Federer enough break opportunities so that the matchup would not be a huge threat to him. The same principles apply to a quarterfinal against Struff because, while I love the German's game, I think Federer's chip return would be effective and Federer would advance to the semifinals. Federer holds so easily on grass that it puts a lot of pressure on opponents.
In a Djokovic-Khachanov semifinal, the high level of the Djokovic return would highlighted. Khachanov would not be able to get a lot of free points on serve against Djokovic, and Djokovic is so solid from the baseline that this could frustrate Karen. Khachanov picked up the biggest win of his career in beating Djokovic in the finals of the Masters 1000 event in Paris, but at Wimbledon last year, Khachanov only won 8 games in the entire match. While I think Khachanov could pick up a set, I would be very confident in Djokovic winning the match.
A Federer-Nadal semifinal would get a lot of press, just as it did at the French Open. However, unlike the French Open, I think Federer would win this match. While it was not the case on clay, Federer's attacking game would be very effective on grass in this matchup. Federer would take the fight to Nadal and make him uncomfortable with the attacking tennis that he would play. Roger's serve would be helped out by the grass, and Rafa would not be as good on defense as he was at Roland Garros. Federer would make the final.
In the final, I think it would be tight. As we've seen in past Wimbledon finals between Djokovic and Federer, Djokovic's consistency has worn Federer down over the course of the match. However, I think it would be different this time. Federer looked good on the clay and in Halle. I think that Federer would be more aggressive than he has in previous Wimbledon finals against Novak, not allowing Djokovic to wear him down from the baseline. I think Federer would really go after the Djokovic serve and try to take over the net as soon as possible. And, most important of all, I think that Federer backhand is better now than it was in years past when he's taken on Djokovic. In backhand-to-backhand rallies, I think that Federer's backhand would breakdown less in the past, and he would win more points in these exchanges. Therefore, I think this tips the scales slightly in Federer's favor.
Roger Federer will be your 2019 men's Wimbledon champion.
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Edmund in 4
Khachanov over Anderson in 5
Nadal over Simon in 3
Federer over Struff in 3
Semifinals
Djokovic over Khachanov in 4
Federer over Nadal in 4
Final
Federer over Djokovic in 5
Reasoning
I almost feel a little guilty picking the "cop out" of the Big 3 taking up three of the four spots in the semifinals, but it feels very scary picking anyone but them. They've taken up 5 of 8 major semifinal spots this season, with Federer's loss to Tsitsipas in the round of 16 of the Australian Open being the only time that one of the three hasn't made the semifinals so far this year. And that was a very tight match. But, let's go through all the quarters of the draw.
I am projecting three of Djokovic's first four matches at Wimbledon to be not too easy for him. Philipp Kohlschreiber is his first round match and he did have a victory against Djokovic in Indian Wells, although Djokovic has won twice since then and is totally in control of the head to head. Kohlschreiber is also not in the best form coming into this tournament, so he shouldn't be too much of an issue for Novak. Kudla is my second round pick to play Djokovic, and while he understands grass court tennis very well, he doesn't have the weapons to challenge Djokovic.
The round of 16 is going to be, perhaps, Djokovic's toughest match until the final. I have him taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime, a player I am very high on. Auger-Aliassime is only 18 years old, but he is clobbering his serve and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of precision and confidence. I don't think he will be scared of Novak, and he has the weapons to really challenge him. But, at the end of the day, I don't think he is quite good enough to beat Djokovic at a major yet, and so I ave Djokovic advancing to play Kyle Edmund.
I have Edmund reaching the quarterfinals because I think that crowd support is huge for him, and I also really like what I've seen so far from in Eastbourne. In Eastbourne, he has been hitting his forehand huge and dealing with the changes of pace involved with grass court tennis very well. Edmund should beat Munar easily in the first round. I predict that he will then have some very tricky matches in a row with Verdasco, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev, but again, I really love what I've seen from Edmund in Eastbourne. In addition, both Verdasco and Tsitsipas have not looked great on the grass and I can't see either of them advancing too far at Wimbledon. And, with Medvedev, while his game is well-suited for grass, I think his grinding style is too hard to keep up for many rounds in the best-of-five format. I think in a Edmund-Djokovic quarterfinal matchup that it will play out much like their third round last year, with Edmund getting a set, but Djokovic ultimately being too much for him to handle.
This next quarter was the toughest for me to predict, and I honestly have very little idea what's happening. I know Anderson is just coming back from injury, but he obviously did very well last year, and his game is very well-suited for grass. A first round clash with Herbert will be tough, Herbert is great at the net and knows his way around a grass court. However, when push comes to shove, I just trust Anderson more in the big moments of a match like that. His next two rounds I have him facing off with Tipseravic and then Copil. Tipseravic shouldn't trouble Anderson at all, and while Copil has a big serve, the rest of his game isn't up to the standard needed to beat Anderson in a match like this. I have Anderson playing Wawrinka in the fourth round, and Wawrinka is not nearly as good on grass compared to other surfaces. So, I have Anderson advancing there to take on Karen Khachanov.
This was tough selection, but I liked what I saw from Khachanov in Halle, and think that he could bring his good form on grass into Wimbledon. Khachanov plays a very good up-and-comer named Soon Woo Kwon, but I don't think he is quite good enough to challenge Khachanov on grass. My predicted second round for Khachanov would be very tough, as I have him taking on Feiciano Lopez. But, I don't trust Lopez to consistently do well in best-of-five format anymore and have Khachanov winning a tight one. The next two rounds against Bautista Agut and then Zverev wouldn't be easy, but grass is both of their weakest surfaces. I just feel like Khachanov can play at a higher level than Bautista Agut on grass. In terms of Zverev, I also don't trust him at majors and Khachanov will be looking for revenge after Zverev beat him in five sets at the French Open last year.
So, I have Khachanov and Anderson facing off in the quarterfinals. Anderson won their only meeting last year in Miami, taking the match in three sets. However, given that he is still coming back from injury, this match would be a step too far for him, and I think Khachanov would win. Maybe I am just higher on Khachanov than most people?
From the top quarter of the bottom draw, I have Gilles Simon as one of the quarterfinalists. I really loved what I saw from Simon at the Queen's Club, where he was so close to taking the title. His passing shots have been on fire recently, and he's counterpunching so well. I have him easily beating Caruso and Uchiyama in the first two rounds. While Caruso beat Simon at the French Open, Simon is playing significantly better recently. In the next two rounds, I have Simon beating Fognini and Thiem. While both are great players, they are much better on other surfaces compared to grass, and Simon is just much more comfortable on the surface than them.
In the quarterfinals, I have Simon battling Rafael Nadal. I'm not overly confident in Nadal on grass, but it's just really hard to pick against him, especially considering how close he was to the final last year in his epic semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Sugita is a good grass court player, but Nadal just does everything better and with more power, and so Sugita should not present too much of a challenge. A second round match against Nick Kyrgios, however, would be extremely intense and must-see television. At the end of the day, though, Kyrgios' form has been mediocre and Nadal surely still remembers and wants revenge for Kyrgios' win in Acapulco. Nadal wins that one in a tight match.
Nadal would then potentially go up against Denis Shapovalov, who I have beating Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in the second round. Shapovalov has the game for grass, but I just don't think he is consistent enough to get another win over the Spaniard. In the round of 16, I have Nadal beating Dan Evans, a Brit with a nasty backhand slice who is in great form. However, this just comes down to the fact that Nadal is on a different league compared to Evans. Evans slice, while effective against many opponents, shouldn't trouble Nadal too much, he's just at a higher level than most. Against Simon in the quarterfinals, while there should be some long, taxing rallies (even on grass), I just can't see Simon outlasting Nadal here. Nadal advances to the semis.
In the top part of the final quarter, I have Jan-Lennard Struff making it the quarterfinals. I really like how Struff has been playing, as he looked good in Stuttgart before eventually falling to Berrettini. He is serving really well and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of power. Albot will challenge him in the first round match, but ultimately not be able to hit through the court enough to beat him. And while Fritz (his potential second round opponent) is doing well in Eastbourne, having watched both recently, I like Struff to edge out that match in a close one. The next two rounds would be very tough, with Isner in the third round and Nishikori in the fourth round. However, Isner is just coming back from injury and would not be very sharp, and potentially still getting his fitness back. In terms of a matchup with Nishikori, I think that Nishikori's second serve is a major liability on grass, and I believe that Struff would punish him for his second serve.
I have Struff taking on Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. Federer is so accomplished at this tournament, he played very well on clay, and took his good form to Halle where he won the title. There's not much left to say about Federer on grass, I mean, his serve is magnificent, his backhand slice is extremely effective, and he knows the perfect opportunities to go to net. Federer won't be challenged in either of his first two matches, but a potential third round against the mercurial Alexander Bublik (who I have beating the winner of Gasquet-Pouille) would be interesting, as Bublik has a huge serve, and loves putting different spins on the ball which could be effective on grass. However, Federer would be just too solid for Bublik.
In the round of 16, I have Federer taking on Matteo Berrettini, who won the title in Stuttgart and had a good run in Halle. His huge serve and nasty backhand slice would give Federer some issues. However, I think that Federer's chip return on grass would be effective enough that Berrettini wouldn't be able to hold as easily as he would like, and give Federer enough break opportunities so that the matchup would not be a huge threat to him. The same principles apply to a quarterfinal against Struff because, while I love the German's game, I think Federer's chip return would be effective and Federer would advance to the semifinals. Federer holds so easily on grass that it puts a lot of pressure on opponents.
In a Djokovic-Khachanov semifinal, the high level of the Djokovic return would highlighted. Khachanov would not be able to get a lot of free points on serve against Djokovic, and Djokovic is so solid from the baseline that this could frustrate Karen. Khachanov picked up the biggest win of his career in beating Djokovic in the finals of the Masters 1000 event in Paris, but at Wimbledon last year, Khachanov only won 8 games in the entire match. While I think Khachanov could pick up a set, I would be very confident in Djokovic winning the match.
A Federer-Nadal semifinal would get a lot of press, just as it did at the French Open. However, unlike the French Open, I think Federer would win this match. While it was not the case on clay, Federer's attacking game would be very effective on grass in this matchup. Federer would take the fight to Nadal and make him uncomfortable with the attacking tennis that he would play. Roger's serve would be helped out by the grass, and Rafa would not be as good on defense as he was at Roland Garros. Federer would make the final.
In the final, I think it would be tight. As we've seen in past Wimbledon finals between Djokovic and Federer, Djokovic's consistency has worn Federer down over the course of the match. However, I think it would be different this time. Federer looked good on the clay and in Halle. I think that Federer would be more aggressive than he has in previous Wimbledon finals against Novak, not allowing Djokovic to wear him down from the baseline. I think Federer would really go after the Djokovic serve and try to take over the net as soon as possible. And, most important of all, I think that Federer backhand is better now than it was in years past when he's taken on Djokovic. In backhand-to-backhand rallies, I think that Federer's backhand would breakdown less in the past, and he would win more points in these exchanges. Therefore, I think this tips the scales slightly in Federer's favor.
Roger Federer will be your 2019 men's Wimbledon champion.
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