Wimbledon is almost here! Check out my predictions for Wimbledon below, along with my reasoning! I think tennis fans will be familiar with a few of my semifinalists.
Quarterfinals
Djokovic over Edmund in 4
Khachanov over Anderson in 5
Nadal over Simon in 3
Federer over Struff in 3
Semifinals
Djokovic over Khachanov in 4
Federer over Nadal in 4
Final
Federer over Djokovic in 5
Reasoning
I almost feel a little guilty picking the "cop out" of the Big 3 taking up three of the four spots in the semifinals, but it feels very scary picking anyone but them. They've taken up 5 of 8 major semifinal spots this season, with Federer's loss to Tsitsipas in the round of 16 of the Australian Open being the only time that one of the three hasn't made the semifinals so far this year. And that was a very tight match. But, let's go through all the quarters of the draw.
I am projecting three of Djokovic's first four matches at Wimbledon to be not too easy for him. Philipp Kohlschreiber is his first round match and he did have a victory against Djokovic in Indian Wells, although Djokovic has won twice since then and is totally in control of the head to head. Kohlschreiber is also not in the best form coming into this tournament, so he shouldn't be too much of an issue for Novak. Kudla is my second round pick to play Djokovic, and while he understands grass court tennis very well, he doesn't have the weapons to challenge Djokovic.
The round of 16 is going to be, perhaps, Djokovic's toughest match until the final. I have him taking on Felix Auger-Aliassime, a player I am very high on. Auger-Aliassime is only 18 years old, but he is clobbering his serve and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of precision and confidence. I don't think he will be scared of Novak, and he has the weapons to really challenge him. But, at the end of the day, I don't think he is quite good enough to beat Djokovic at a major yet, and so I ave Djokovic advancing to play Kyle Edmund.
I have Edmund reaching the quarterfinals because I think that crowd support is huge for him, and I also really like what I've seen so far from in Eastbourne. In Eastbourne, he has been hitting his forehand huge and dealing with the changes of pace involved with grass court tennis very well. Edmund should beat Munar easily in the first round. I predict that he will then have some very tricky matches in a row with Verdasco, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev, but again, I really love what I've seen from Edmund in Eastbourne. In addition, both Verdasco and Tsitsipas have not looked great on the grass and I can't see either of them advancing too far at Wimbledon. And, with Medvedev, while his game is well-suited for grass, I think his grinding style is too hard to keep up for many rounds in the best-of-five format. I think in a Edmund-Djokovic quarterfinal matchup that it will play out much like their third round last year, with Edmund getting a set, but Djokovic ultimately being too much for him to handle.
This next quarter was the toughest for me to predict, and I honestly have very little idea what's happening. I know Anderson is just coming back from injury, but he obviously did very well last year, and his game is very well-suited for grass. A first round clash with Herbert will be tough, Herbert is great at the net and knows his way around a grass court. However, when push comes to shove, I just trust Anderson more in the big moments of a match like that. His next two rounds I have him facing off with Tipseravic and then Copil. Tipseravic shouldn't trouble Anderson at all, and while Copil has a big serve, the rest of his game isn't up to the standard needed to beat Anderson in a match like this. I have Anderson playing Wawrinka in the fourth round, and Wawrinka is not nearly as good on grass compared to other surfaces. So, I have Anderson advancing there to take on Karen Khachanov.
This was tough selection, but I liked what I saw from Khachanov in Halle, and think that he could bring his good form on grass into Wimbledon. Khachanov plays a very good up-and-comer named Soon Woo Kwon, but I don't think he is quite good enough to challenge Khachanov on grass. My predicted second round for Khachanov would be very tough, as I have him taking on Feiciano Lopez. But, I don't trust Lopez to consistently do well in best-of-five format anymore and have Khachanov winning a tight one. The next two rounds against Bautista Agut and then Zverev wouldn't be easy, but grass is both of their weakest surfaces. I just feel like Khachanov can play at a higher level than Bautista Agut on grass. In terms of Zverev, I also don't trust him at majors and Khachanov will be looking for revenge after Zverev beat him in five sets at the French Open last year.
So, I have Khachanov and Anderson facing off in the quarterfinals. Anderson won their only meeting last year in Miami, taking the match in three sets. However, given that he is still coming back from injury, this match would be a step too far for him, and I think Khachanov would win. Maybe I am just higher on Khachanov than most people?
From the top quarter of the bottom draw, I have Gilles Simon as one of the quarterfinalists. I really loved what I saw from Simon at the Queen's Club, where he was so close to taking the title. His passing shots have been on fire recently, and he's counterpunching so well. I have him easily beating Caruso and Uchiyama in the first two rounds. While Caruso beat Simon at the French Open, Simon is playing significantly better recently. In the next two rounds, I have Simon beating Fognini and Thiem. While both are great players, they are much better on other surfaces compared to grass, and Simon is just much more comfortable on the surface than them.
In the quarterfinals, I have Simon battling Rafael Nadal. I'm not overly confident in Nadal on grass, but it's just really hard to pick against him, especially considering how close he was to the final last year in his epic semifinal against Novak Djokovic. Sugita is a good grass court player, but Nadal just does everything better and with more power, and so Sugita should not present too much of a challenge. A second round match against Nick Kyrgios, however, would be extremely intense and must-see television. At the end of the day, though, Kyrgios' form has been mediocre and Nadal surely still remembers and wants revenge for Kyrgios' win in Acapulco. Nadal wins that one in a tight match.
Nadal would then potentially go up against Denis Shapovalov, who I have beating Jo-Wilfred Tsonga in the second round. Shapovalov has the game for grass, but I just don't think he is consistent enough to get another win over the Spaniard. In the round of 16, I have Nadal beating Dan Evans, a Brit with a nasty backhand slice who is in great form. However, this just comes down to the fact that Nadal is on a different league compared to Evans. Evans slice, while effective against many opponents, shouldn't trouble Nadal too much, he's just at a higher level than most. Against Simon in the quarterfinals, while there should be some long, taxing rallies (even on grass), I just can't see Simon outlasting Nadal here. Nadal advances to the semis.
In the top part of the final quarter, I have Jan-Lennard Struff making it the quarterfinals. I really like how Struff has been playing, as he looked good in Stuttgart before eventually falling to Berrettini. He is serving really well and hitting his groundstrokes with a lot of power. Albot will challenge him in the first round match, but ultimately not be able to hit through the court enough to beat him. And while Fritz (his potential second round opponent) is doing well in Eastbourne, having watched both recently, I like Struff to edge out that match in a close one. The next two rounds would be very tough, with Isner in the third round and Nishikori in the fourth round. However, Isner is just coming back from injury and would not be very sharp, and potentially still getting his fitness back. In terms of a matchup with Nishikori, I think that Nishikori's second serve is a major liability on grass, and I believe that Struff would punish him for his second serve.
I have Struff taking on Roger Federer in the quarterfinals. Federer is so accomplished at this tournament, he played very well on clay, and took his good form to Halle where he won the title. There's not much left to say about Federer on grass, I mean, his serve is magnificent, his backhand slice is extremely effective, and he knows the perfect opportunities to go to net. Federer won't be challenged in either of his first two matches, but a potential third round against the mercurial Alexander Bublik (who I have beating the winner of Gasquet-Pouille) would be interesting, as Bublik has a huge serve, and loves putting different spins on the ball which could be effective on grass. However, Federer would be just too solid for Bublik.
In the round of 16, I have Federer taking on Matteo Berrettini, who won the title in Stuttgart and had a good run in Halle. His huge serve and nasty backhand slice would give Federer some issues. However, I think that Federer's chip return on grass would be effective enough that Berrettini wouldn't be able to hold as easily as he would like, and give Federer enough break opportunities so that the matchup would not be a huge threat to him. The same principles apply to a quarterfinal against Struff because, while I love the German's game, I think Federer's chip return would be effective and Federer would advance to the semifinals. Federer holds so easily on grass that it puts a lot of pressure on opponents.
In a Djokovic-Khachanov semifinal, the high level of the Djokovic return would highlighted. Khachanov would not be able to get a lot of free points on serve against Djokovic, and Djokovic is so solid from the baseline that this could frustrate Karen. Khachanov picked up the biggest win of his career in beating Djokovic in the finals of the Masters 1000 event in Paris, but at Wimbledon last year, Khachanov only won 8 games in the entire match. While I think Khachanov could pick up a set, I would be very confident in Djokovic winning the match.
A Federer-Nadal semifinal would get a lot of press, just as it did at the French Open. However, unlike the French Open, I think Federer would win this match. While it was not the case on clay, Federer's attacking game would be very effective on grass in this matchup. Federer would take the fight to Nadal and make him uncomfortable with the attacking tennis that he would play. Roger's serve would be helped out by the grass, and Rafa would not be as good on defense as he was at Roland Garros. Federer would make the final.
In the final, I think it would be tight. As we've seen in past Wimbledon finals between Djokovic and Federer, Djokovic's consistency has worn Federer down over the course of the match. However, I think it would be different this time. Federer looked good on the clay and in Halle. I think that Federer would be more aggressive than he has in previous Wimbledon finals against Novak, not allowing Djokovic to wear him down from the baseline. I think Federer would really go after the Djokovic serve and try to take over the net as soon as possible. And, most important of all, I think that Federer backhand is better now than it was in years past when he's taken on Djokovic. In backhand-to-backhand rallies, I think that Federer's backhand would breakdown less in the past, and he would win more points in these exchanges. Therefore, I think this tips the scales slightly in Federer's favor.
Roger Federer will be your 2019 men's Wimbledon champion.
Friday, June 28, 2019
Saturday, May 25, 2019
French Open Men's Predictions
Quarterfinals:
Djokovic over Fognini in four
Thiem over Khachanov in four
Tsitsipas over Schwartzman in four
Nadal over Paire in three
Semifinals:
Djokovic over Thiem in five
Nadal over Tsitsipas in three
Final:
Nadal over Djokovic in four
Reasoning:
It seems like Twitter is erupting over Djokovic's draw, but given the level he has showed this clay court season, I don't see much reason for concern. Hurkacz is a tough first rounder, but Djokovic will neutralize his serve and force him into a bunch of errors. I have Djokovic beating Martinez, Munar, and Coric, all grinders (in ascending difficulty) who he should be able to get through pretty easily. These type of players don't have the weapons to hurt Novak.
I have Fognini going through because he has played really well this clay court season. He'll take on some tough clay courters along the way, including Delbonis (who played really in Geneva) and Bautista Agut, but Fabio should be too crafty for these players. I have Fognini beating Alexander Zverev in the round of 16, but I think that the only reason why Zverev even makes it to that stage is because of a very kind draw, and Fabio should win that match easily. Djokovic's 8-0 head-to-head of Fognini says a lot about how their games match up, and Djokovic will be too much for the Italian.
Dominic Thiem has a tough draw, and while he lost fairly early by his standards in Rome, that should provide him with the extra rest needed to go far. I have him taking on Paul, Molleker, Cuevas, and Verdasco (who just beat him in Rome) before even taking on Khachanov, but I think that best-of-five suits Thiem well. He plays so physical, and he is in such great shape, that he should be able to wear down his opponents, and the huge space at the back of Philippe Chatrier should provide him ample room behind the baseline (when he plays there), which is important because he stands so far back on the return of serve, which is hard to do on smaller courts.
I thought that Karen Khachanov turned a corner in Madrid from a tough start to the season, and this carried over in Rome. He got a pretty favorable draw, with the highest seed in his 8th of the draw being del Potro, who played well in Rome, but is still just returning from injury. The seed in his 16th of the draw is Pouille, which is not a scary seed and I have losing in the first round to Bolelli, and he will play Stebe in the first round and either Barrere or Ebden in the second round. Not bad. While Khachanov won their only match at the Paris indoor Masters 1000 event last year, I think that Thiem's heavy spin to the Khachanov backhand on clay will befuddle the Russian, and with one of Khachanov's biggest weapons, his serve, being partially neutralized by the clay, Thiem will win.
You might be shocked that I don't have Federer in the quarterfinals, but given this is his first best-of-five tournament on clay in years, I think that his draw is very tough. His first round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, has had good results on clay this season. In the third round he will likely play Matteo Berrettini, who has already won a clay court tournament this season and beaten Alexander Zverev in another clay court tournament.
And by the time he reaches, Schwartzman, I think he will be fatigued from all the tennis. Schwartzman has lost 7-5 in the third (best-of-three) to Federer before, and he really found his form last week, beating Berrettini and Nishikori, and then taking Djokovic to three sets. I think he carries over this good form to Roland Garros, a tournament in which he made the quarterfinals last year, getting a set off of Nadal. His draw is tough, Fucsovics in the first round, and either Kohlschreiber or Cecchinato in the third round, but I think Diego makes it to Federer, and beats him in a tough round of 16 match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been so impressive this clay court season. He beat Rafael Nadal in Madrid, won Estoril, and beat Fognini in straight sets in a night match on Pietrangeli. His backhand, which is perceived as the weakness in his game, is so solid, and his draw sets him up pretty well. He should force his first round opponent, Maximillian Marterer into too many errors, and my projected second and third round opponents for Tsitsipas, Dellien and Carballes Baena, don't have the weapons to hurt him. His seed in the 16th of his draw, Frances Tiafoe, I have losing in the first round to Filip Krajinovic, and the top seed in his 8th of the draw, Marin Cilic, is struggling this season and is not great on clay. I have Tsitsipas beating Christian Garin in the round of 16, and while Garin is tough, he did win two clay court tournament this season and made the final of another, he is another player who doesn't have the weapons to hurt Tsitsipas. Then in the quarterfinal, I think Schwartzman after beating Federer, is going to be out of gas, and Tsitsipas should have a fairly comfortable match on route to the semifinals.
The bottom quarter of the draw is not going to super interesting, because Nadal will dominate. He's won Roland Garros 11 times, and I don't see anyone in this quarter that could beat him. His first minor test will be in the third round against David Goffin, but Goffin is not playing nearly well enough to challenge Nadal. In the fourth round, I have Rafa taking on Guido Pella, who challenged him for a set in Monte Carlo, but again, in best-of-five against Rafa on clay, you have to play out of your mind for extremely long periods of time, and Pella doesn't have the level to match Rafa for more than a set, as we saw in Monte Carlo.
I have Nadal playing Benoit Paire in the quarterfinals. Paire just won his second clay court tournament today in Lyon, and is playing so well. When his backhand, serve, and drop shot are working, he is extremely difficult to beat and I think he brings that good form to Paris. His draw sets him up well, until the quarterfinals. Copil shouldn't challenge him in the first round, and Medvedev, while he's had good success this clay court season, will be very frustrated by the changes of pace that Paire provides, just as he was frustrated by Krygios in Rome. Sousa and Ramos, my projected opponents for Paire in the third and fourth rounds, while good on clay, also will be puzzled by Paire's unconventional game, at the level it's at right now. Paire's serve is so well-placed, it's a very underrated part of his game. But, it won't be enough to trouble Nadal. Not even close.
In the semifinals, we will get an absolute battle between Djokovic and Thiem. This will be an absolute classic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-2, but it's 3-2 Djokovic on clay. They've split their two matchups at Roland Garros. I'm very 50/50 on this match, it will come down to very fine margins. Will Thiem's heavy, hard-hitting groundstrokes be able to break through against the Djokovic defense? Or will Novak's counterpunching prevail? It's hard to beat Djokovic three-out-five, and as the match wears on, Djokovic's extreme fitness will start to take over. In the tight moments, who do you trust more? Djokovic wins.
The other semifinal is much more straightforward. Yes, Nadal lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid, but that was at altitude in best-of-three, and Nadal played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play on clay. In Rome, Nadal won comfortably in straight sets. And given how Philippe Chatrier's huge clay surface allows Rafa ample room to defend against Tsitsipas' groundstrokes, the result of this one should be no surprise: Nadal wins.
In the final, it will be the second Djokovic-Nadal matchup in a row. While Djokovic leads the head-to-head 28-26, and easily won the final in Australia, in their match in Rome, Nadal won in three sets, but only gave up one game in the two sets he won. While Djokovic was tired, this should be a confidence booster for Rafa. I think that fatigue could also play a role in this match, as Thiem will push Djokovic a lot harder than Tsitsipas will push Rafa. I think that Djokovic will be a step slow in this match, and that will be all Rafa needs to win fairly comfortably.
Rafael Nadal will be your 2019 French Open champion!
Djokovic over Fognini in four
Thiem over Khachanov in four
Tsitsipas over Schwartzman in four
Nadal over Paire in three
Semifinals:
Djokovic over Thiem in five
Nadal over Tsitsipas in three
Final:
Nadal over Djokovic in four
Reasoning:
It seems like Twitter is erupting over Djokovic's draw, but given the level he has showed this clay court season, I don't see much reason for concern. Hurkacz is a tough first rounder, but Djokovic will neutralize his serve and force him into a bunch of errors. I have Djokovic beating Martinez, Munar, and Coric, all grinders (in ascending difficulty) who he should be able to get through pretty easily. These type of players don't have the weapons to hurt Novak.
I have Fognini going through because he has played really well this clay court season. He'll take on some tough clay courters along the way, including Delbonis (who played really in Geneva) and Bautista Agut, but Fabio should be too crafty for these players. I have Fognini beating Alexander Zverev in the round of 16, but I think that the only reason why Zverev even makes it to that stage is because of a very kind draw, and Fabio should win that match easily. Djokovic's 8-0 head-to-head of Fognini says a lot about how their games match up, and Djokovic will be too much for the Italian.
Dominic Thiem has a tough draw, and while he lost fairly early by his standards in Rome, that should provide him with the extra rest needed to go far. I have him taking on Paul, Molleker, Cuevas, and Verdasco (who just beat him in Rome) before even taking on Khachanov, but I think that best-of-five suits Thiem well. He plays so physical, and he is in such great shape, that he should be able to wear down his opponents, and the huge space at the back of Philippe Chatrier should provide him ample room behind the baseline (when he plays there), which is important because he stands so far back on the return of serve, which is hard to do on smaller courts.
I thought that Karen Khachanov turned a corner in Madrid from a tough start to the season, and this carried over in Rome. He got a pretty favorable draw, with the highest seed in his 8th of the draw being del Potro, who played well in Rome, but is still just returning from injury. The seed in his 16th of the draw is Pouille, which is not a scary seed and I have losing in the first round to Bolelli, and he will play Stebe in the first round and either Barrere or Ebden in the second round. Not bad. While Khachanov won their only match at the Paris indoor Masters 1000 event last year, I think that Thiem's heavy spin to the Khachanov backhand on clay will befuddle the Russian, and with one of Khachanov's biggest weapons, his serve, being partially neutralized by the clay, Thiem will win.
You might be shocked that I don't have Federer in the quarterfinals, but given this is his first best-of-five tournament on clay in years, I think that his draw is very tough. His first round opponent, Lorenzo Sonego, has had good results on clay this season. In the third round he will likely play Matteo Berrettini, who has already won a clay court tournament this season and beaten Alexander Zverev in another clay court tournament.
And by the time he reaches, Schwartzman, I think he will be fatigued from all the tennis. Schwartzman has lost 7-5 in the third (best-of-three) to Federer before, and he really found his form last week, beating Berrettini and Nishikori, and then taking Djokovic to three sets. I think he carries over this good form to Roland Garros, a tournament in which he made the quarterfinals last year, getting a set off of Nadal. His draw is tough, Fucsovics in the first round, and either Kohlschreiber or Cecchinato in the third round, but I think Diego makes it to Federer, and beats him in a tough round of 16 match.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has been so impressive this clay court season. He beat Rafael Nadal in Madrid, won Estoril, and beat Fognini in straight sets in a night match on Pietrangeli. His backhand, which is perceived as the weakness in his game, is so solid, and his draw sets him up pretty well. He should force his first round opponent, Maximillian Marterer into too many errors, and my projected second and third round opponents for Tsitsipas, Dellien and Carballes Baena, don't have the weapons to hurt him. His seed in the 16th of his draw, Frances Tiafoe, I have losing in the first round to Filip Krajinovic, and the top seed in his 8th of the draw, Marin Cilic, is struggling this season and is not great on clay. I have Tsitsipas beating Christian Garin in the round of 16, and while Garin is tough, he did win two clay court tournament this season and made the final of another, he is another player who doesn't have the weapons to hurt Tsitsipas. Then in the quarterfinal, I think Schwartzman after beating Federer, is going to be out of gas, and Tsitsipas should have a fairly comfortable match on route to the semifinals.
The bottom quarter of the draw is not going to super interesting, because Nadal will dominate. He's won Roland Garros 11 times, and I don't see anyone in this quarter that could beat him. His first minor test will be in the third round against David Goffin, but Goffin is not playing nearly well enough to challenge Nadal. In the fourth round, I have Rafa taking on Guido Pella, who challenged him for a set in Monte Carlo, but again, in best-of-five against Rafa on clay, you have to play out of your mind for extremely long periods of time, and Pella doesn't have the level to match Rafa for more than a set, as we saw in Monte Carlo.
I have Nadal playing Benoit Paire in the quarterfinals. Paire just won his second clay court tournament today in Lyon, and is playing so well. When his backhand, serve, and drop shot are working, he is extremely difficult to beat and I think he brings that good form to Paris. His draw sets him up well, until the quarterfinals. Copil shouldn't challenge him in the first round, and Medvedev, while he's had good success this clay court season, will be very frustrated by the changes of pace that Paire provides, just as he was frustrated by Krygios in Rome. Sousa and Ramos, my projected opponents for Paire in the third and fourth rounds, while good on clay, also will be puzzled by Paire's unconventional game, at the level it's at right now. Paire's serve is so well-placed, it's a very underrated part of his game. But, it won't be enough to trouble Nadal. Not even close.
In the semifinals, we will get an absolute battle between Djokovic and Thiem. This will be an absolute classic. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 6-2, but it's 3-2 Djokovic on clay. They've split their two matchups at Roland Garros. I'm very 50/50 on this match, it will come down to very fine margins. Will Thiem's heavy, hard-hitting groundstrokes be able to break through against the Djokovic defense? Or will Novak's counterpunching prevail? It's hard to beat Djokovic three-out-five, and as the match wears on, Djokovic's extreme fitness will start to take over. In the tight moments, who do you trust more? Djokovic wins.
The other semifinal is much more straightforward. Yes, Nadal lost to Tsitsipas in Madrid, but that was at altitude in best-of-three, and Nadal played one of the worst matches I've ever seen him play on clay. In Rome, Nadal won comfortably in straight sets. And given how Philippe Chatrier's huge clay surface allows Rafa ample room to defend against Tsitsipas' groundstrokes, the result of this one should be no surprise: Nadal wins.
In the final, it will be the second Djokovic-Nadal matchup in a row. While Djokovic leads the head-to-head 28-26, and easily won the final in Australia, in their match in Rome, Nadal won in three sets, but only gave up one game in the two sets he won. While Djokovic was tired, this should be a confidence booster for Rafa. I think that fatigue could also play a role in this match, as Thiem will push Djokovic a lot harder than Tsitsipas will push Rafa. I think that Djokovic will be a step slow in this match, and that will be all Rafa needs to win fairly comfortably.
Rafael Nadal will be your 2019 French Open champion!
Friday, April 12, 2019
Nick Kyrgios, Sara Errani, and the Underarm Serve
Nick Kyrgios made waves in tennis world weeks ago when he started hitting underarm serves as a way to change up the pace of the match and keep his opponents from standing too far behind the baseline. However, given that Kyrgios has one of the best serves in men's tennis, the underarm serve was seen as more of a novelty act than anything worth paying serious attention to. And while players, like Alejandro Davidovich Fokina started to also occasionally serve underarmed, it seemed more for the shock factor to the opponent than a serious, long-term strategy.
However, what happens when the shock factor turns into a method of fending off retirement and keeping a player's tennis dreams alive? That is what Sara Errani is currently grappling with. As Diego Barbiani states in this tweet, in last night's match in Bogota, Errani served underarm for most of the match, especially in the second set. And not only that, but Errani only lost three games in the match. And as, Barbiani states, she only hit four double faults!
Now, you might be thinking, why is it such a big deal that she only hit four double faults? Well, in her previous match, she hit 18 double faults. To put that in perspective, 18 double faults is around 4.5 games in a match. While that is not a perfect comparison to make, given deuce games, it is still startling to see Errani serving so poorly. Sara's serve was always the weak part of her game, but she never used to serve like this. The serve is the one part of a player's game that the player has full control over, and is considered by many to be the most important shot in tennis, so to see Errani struggling to this extent is shocking.
But, it seems like switching to the underarm serve, at least in that one match, helped Errani to cut down on her serving woes and allow her to showcase her high-quality clay-court baseline game. This is in contrast to Errani often ending the point before it has really even started, not with an ace, but with a double fault. When one watches Errani, it is clear that her groundstroke prowess, while not on the level she was at when she made the final of the French Open in 2012, is still at a very high level. The problem is, however, when your serve is under pressure so often, by yourself as often as your opponent, how are you able to win consistently?
I don't see this underarm serve to be a long-term strategy for Errani. The WTA Bogota is definitely not the strongest of the WTA tournaments, and having success with the underarm serve against Bibiane Schoofs, currently No. 149 in the live rankings, doesn't mean that Errani is all of a sudden going to go toe-to-toe, for example, with Angelique Kerber, like she has in the past (head to head 2-2). Errani will most likely have to work out how to manage the regular service motion if she is going to advance in tournaments with stronger fields.
It is so interesting how this whole situation has panned out. Although Michael Chang famously used the underarm serve in his match against Ivan Lendl at the French Open, Nick Kyrgios revived it with his occasional underarm serves recently, and because it's Nick Kyrgios, this sparked seemingly endless debates about the underarm serve, with Kyrgios certainly enjoying the even brighter spotlight that serving underarm has brought him.
Yet, we also have a player, Sara Errani, who is using the underarm serve as a way to keep her dream of playing in French Open qualifying alive. It's amazing how far Errani has fallen, going from her peak, battling Maria Sharapova for the French Open, to her doping ban, to now utilizing the underarm serve as a way to keep her tennis career, and chances to even get into French Open qualifying, afloat.
Thus, proving that the underarm serve can be used for very different reasons.
However, what happens when the shock factor turns into a method of fending off retirement and keeping a player's tennis dreams alive? That is what Sara Errani is currently grappling with. As Diego Barbiani states in this tweet, in last night's match in Bogota, Errani served underarm for most of the match, especially in the second set. And not only that, but Errani only lost three games in the match. And as, Barbiani states, she only hit four double faults!
Now, you might be thinking, why is it such a big deal that she only hit four double faults? Well, in her previous match, she hit 18 double faults. To put that in perspective, 18 double faults is around 4.5 games in a match. While that is not a perfect comparison to make, given deuce games, it is still startling to see Errani serving so poorly. Sara's serve was always the weak part of her game, but she never used to serve like this. The serve is the one part of a player's game that the player has full control over, and is considered by many to be the most important shot in tennis, so to see Errani struggling to this extent is shocking.
But, it seems like switching to the underarm serve, at least in that one match, helped Errani to cut down on her serving woes and allow her to showcase her high-quality clay-court baseline game. This is in contrast to Errani often ending the point before it has really even started, not with an ace, but with a double fault. When one watches Errani, it is clear that her groundstroke prowess, while not on the level she was at when she made the final of the French Open in 2012, is still at a very high level. The problem is, however, when your serve is under pressure so often, by yourself as often as your opponent, how are you able to win consistently?
I don't see this underarm serve to be a long-term strategy for Errani. The WTA Bogota is definitely not the strongest of the WTA tournaments, and having success with the underarm serve against Bibiane Schoofs, currently No. 149 in the live rankings, doesn't mean that Errani is all of a sudden going to go toe-to-toe, for example, with Angelique Kerber, like she has in the past (head to head 2-2). Errani will most likely have to work out how to manage the regular service motion if she is going to advance in tournaments with stronger fields.
It is so interesting how this whole situation has panned out. Although Michael Chang famously used the underarm serve in his match against Ivan Lendl at the French Open, Nick Kyrgios revived it with his occasional underarm serves recently, and because it's Nick Kyrgios, this sparked seemingly endless debates about the underarm serve, with Kyrgios certainly enjoying the even brighter spotlight that serving underarm has brought him.
Yet, we also have a player, Sara Errani, who is using the underarm serve as a way to keep her dream of playing in French Open qualifying alive. It's amazing how far Errani has fallen, going from her peak, battling Maria Sharapova for the French Open, to her doping ban, to now utilizing the underarm serve as a way to keep her tennis career, and chances to even get into French Open qualifying, afloat.
Thus, proving that the underarm serve can be used for very different reasons.
Sunday, March 10, 2019
Jelena Ostapenko: What's Happened, Possible Adjustments, and the Power of Expectations
It was the shock of all shocks. It sent waves through the tennis universe. Simona Halep was up 6-4, 3-0 in the French Open Final over newcomer Jelena Ostapenko. Ostapenko had just turned 20 years old, and before the tournament, had only reached the Third Round of a major once in her life, let alone the Final. And, it seemed like the moment was too big for her. Her groundstrokes were flying on her, and it seemed she had lost control of her game.
But, tennis, a largely mental sport, has a way of twisting and turning, with the unexpected often coming through. Ostapenko cracked some groundstrokes, Halep's doubts surrounding her ability to win a major resurfaced, and Ostapenko stormed back to win 12 of the next 16 games, winning her maiden major 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
This seemed like it could be the beginning of the Ostapenko era in women's tennis. Here was a young champion, with a huge game, who wasn't afraid of the moment and was ready to rise to whatever challenge came her way. Jelena could have crumbled against Halep, where seemingly everything was against her. She could have mailed it in the First Round, where Louisa Chirico had her on the ropes, winning the first set. She could have broken down in the Fourth Round, when Stosur took the first set 6-2. Or the Quarterfinals, when Wozniacki won the first set.
But, Ostapenko hung in there, and fought. And it was this fighting spirit, along with her huge game, where you just sensed something special was brewing for her future in tennis. You got the feeling she might be someone to look out for, when in the Final of a Premier 5 tournament, one of the biggest in women's tennis, she won the first set of the Final in Doha over Carla Suarez Navarro 6-1. And her Final of the Premier event in Charleston showed she could play on clay. However, even so, the tennis world largely was shocked, not that Ostapenko won a major, but that she did so at such a young age, and against a player of the caliber of Halep.
But, largely, that was the last the tennis world really saw Ostapenko at the top of the game. Yes, she won a title later that year in Seoul, squeezing out a tight match over Beatriz Haddad Maia. And, she did win a Premier doubles title with Gabriela Dabrowski in Doha early last year, but given the high bar she set winning a major, her results since the French Open title have largely felt underwhelming.
In singles, Ostapenko has only made one Final since her win in Seoul, a straight sets loss to Sloane Stephens in Miami (although it is a Premier Mandatory event) last year. But, given that we are now approaching two years since her French Open crown, two singles Finals with one title in an International event to show for it seems like a disappointment.
This isn't to say that Ostapenko never plays well, she did make the Semifinals of Wimbledon last year, it's just to say that there is very little consistency in her results, even within a tournament. Since that Wimbledon Semifinals run last year, for instance, she has only won two matches in a row during a tournament once, making the Third Round of the US Open last year before a straight sets loss to Maria Sharapova. Beyond those two wins in a row, the only time she has won two matches in a row is when she won a three setter over Rebecca Sramkova in Fed Cup and then won another three setter over a slumping Miheala Buzarnescu in the First Round of Doha. In non-Fed Cup play, she has three wins.
So, why write this article now? Well, Ostapenko just lost a three setter to Marketa Vondrousova, a 19 year old rising star who might, in a few years, if her game continues to develop, overshadow Ostapenko. Of course, Jelena still has her major, but if she does not start winning consistently soon, she will soon be thought of as a one-major-wonder, where her title is seen largely as a fluke. Yes, she still would have her title, of course, but the expectations of winning future majors would be put on the likes of players like Vondrousova, as opposed to Ostapenko
So, what are changes to Ostapenko's game that could be implemented? First, her serve can be improved. It is hard for Jelena to really gain control of points with her serve, as it is largely a weaker serve that sits up into the strike zone of her opponents. If she were able to gain some extra firepower on her serve, it would allow her to gain control of more points, which would ease some pressure off of her potent groundstrokes, giving her easier winners to hit and less pressure on her groundstrokes to be at a high level in order to win.
Speaking of Ostapenko's groundstrokes, I think a little more margin would do her a lot of good. I'm not saying that her groundstrokes should be a slow and loopy all of a sudden, but really focusing on adding a touch more topspin to her game, and making her targets slightly more inside of the court as opposed to trained on the line, would add an extra safety element to her game that I don't think she has. Because, even when she wins, her game just feels very erratic. Take her 6-1, 0-6, 6-0 win over Kristina Mladenovic in St. Petersburg this year, for example. Even within a match, Ostapenko's game can come-and-go.
Adding a little more margin to her groundstrokes would also help to eliminate the shock losses that Ostapenko has, such as her loss to Kristina Kucova in Hong Kong last year or her loss to Monica Niculescu in Shenzhen. Taking slightly fewer risks on the return of serve may also help Ostapenko out. When a player misses the return of serve, that player is not even giving the opponent a chance to produce an unforced error. While she might not hit as many return winners/forced errors (or winners/forced errors in general), I believe that she would be giving herself a better chance to win a greater percentage of the return points she plays. Again, I'm not suggesting that she start moonballing, but rather, that she plays just slightly higher percentage tennis.
It could be the power of expectations that is causing Ostapenko difficulty. Consistently, for maiden major winners, continuing success after a maiden major win is very difficult. A new, almost-suffocating attention is bestowed upon you, and you have to either deal with it, or let the pressure get to your head. And, it clearly takes a while to figure out.
So, perhaps, Jelena Ostapenko, who is still so young, at 21 years of age, is just taking a longer time figuring out her place in this tennis universe. With the margins already so low with her game, perhaps the mental pressure of being a major champion, of going into matches on big courts with the expectation to win, of being out on tour with the pressure of winning as a means of supporting herself, can contribute to Ostapenko's erratic play.
Everyone is different. And it's obviously too early to write Ostapenko off. She is 21 years old, a lot of people her age are either in college or just starting out in the workforce. She still has plenty of time in tennis to make her mark. Look at Venus Williams, who at 38 years old, just beat Petra Kvitova yesterday at Indian Wells. Ostapenko is clearly still trying to figure out her game, and the expectations that weigh on her game, given that she has won a major.
Yes, Jelena Ostapenko is currently 80th in the race to the Year End Championships, but the season is still so young. And, after all, she is still 22nd in the live rankings.
Jelena Ostapenko will be fine, just give her some time.
But, tennis, a largely mental sport, has a way of twisting and turning, with the unexpected often coming through. Ostapenko cracked some groundstrokes, Halep's doubts surrounding her ability to win a major resurfaced, and Ostapenko stormed back to win 12 of the next 16 games, winning her maiden major 4-6, 6-4, 6-3.
This seemed like it could be the beginning of the Ostapenko era in women's tennis. Here was a young champion, with a huge game, who wasn't afraid of the moment and was ready to rise to whatever challenge came her way. Jelena could have crumbled against Halep, where seemingly everything was against her. She could have mailed it in the First Round, where Louisa Chirico had her on the ropes, winning the first set. She could have broken down in the Fourth Round, when Stosur took the first set 6-2. Or the Quarterfinals, when Wozniacki won the first set.
But, Ostapenko hung in there, and fought. And it was this fighting spirit, along with her huge game, where you just sensed something special was brewing for her future in tennis. You got the feeling she might be someone to look out for, when in the Final of a Premier 5 tournament, one of the biggest in women's tennis, she won the first set of the Final in Doha over Carla Suarez Navarro 6-1. And her Final of the Premier event in Charleston showed she could play on clay. However, even so, the tennis world largely was shocked, not that Ostapenko won a major, but that she did so at such a young age, and against a player of the caliber of Halep.
But, largely, that was the last the tennis world really saw Ostapenko at the top of the game. Yes, she won a title later that year in Seoul, squeezing out a tight match over Beatriz Haddad Maia. And, she did win a Premier doubles title with Gabriela Dabrowski in Doha early last year, but given the high bar she set winning a major, her results since the French Open title have largely felt underwhelming.
In singles, Ostapenko has only made one Final since her win in Seoul, a straight sets loss to Sloane Stephens in Miami (although it is a Premier Mandatory event) last year. But, given that we are now approaching two years since her French Open crown, two singles Finals with one title in an International event to show for it seems like a disappointment.
This isn't to say that Ostapenko never plays well, she did make the Semifinals of Wimbledon last year, it's just to say that there is very little consistency in her results, even within a tournament. Since that Wimbledon Semifinals run last year, for instance, she has only won two matches in a row during a tournament once, making the Third Round of the US Open last year before a straight sets loss to Maria Sharapova. Beyond those two wins in a row, the only time she has won two matches in a row is when she won a three setter over Rebecca Sramkova in Fed Cup and then won another three setter over a slumping Miheala Buzarnescu in the First Round of Doha. In non-Fed Cup play, she has three wins.
So, why write this article now? Well, Ostapenko just lost a three setter to Marketa Vondrousova, a 19 year old rising star who might, in a few years, if her game continues to develop, overshadow Ostapenko. Of course, Jelena still has her major, but if she does not start winning consistently soon, she will soon be thought of as a one-major-wonder, where her title is seen largely as a fluke. Yes, she still would have her title, of course, but the expectations of winning future majors would be put on the likes of players like Vondrousova, as opposed to Ostapenko
So, what are changes to Ostapenko's game that could be implemented? First, her serve can be improved. It is hard for Jelena to really gain control of points with her serve, as it is largely a weaker serve that sits up into the strike zone of her opponents. If she were able to gain some extra firepower on her serve, it would allow her to gain control of more points, which would ease some pressure off of her potent groundstrokes, giving her easier winners to hit and less pressure on her groundstrokes to be at a high level in order to win.
Speaking of Ostapenko's groundstrokes, I think a little more margin would do her a lot of good. I'm not saying that her groundstrokes should be a slow and loopy all of a sudden, but really focusing on adding a touch more topspin to her game, and making her targets slightly more inside of the court as opposed to trained on the line, would add an extra safety element to her game that I don't think she has. Because, even when she wins, her game just feels very erratic. Take her 6-1, 0-6, 6-0 win over Kristina Mladenovic in St. Petersburg this year, for example. Even within a match, Ostapenko's game can come-and-go.
Adding a little more margin to her groundstrokes would also help to eliminate the shock losses that Ostapenko has, such as her loss to Kristina Kucova in Hong Kong last year or her loss to Monica Niculescu in Shenzhen. Taking slightly fewer risks on the return of serve may also help Ostapenko out. When a player misses the return of serve, that player is not even giving the opponent a chance to produce an unforced error. While she might not hit as many return winners/forced errors (or winners/forced errors in general), I believe that she would be giving herself a better chance to win a greater percentage of the return points she plays. Again, I'm not suggesting that she start moonballing, but rather, that she plays just slightly higher percentage tennis.
It could be the power of expectations that is causing Ostapenko difficulty. Consistently, for maiden major winners, continuing success after a maiden major win is very difficult. A new, almost-suffocating attention is bestowed upon you, and you have to either deal with it, or let the pressure get to your head. And, it clearly takes a while to figure out.
So, perhaps, Jelena Ostapenko, who is still so young, at 21 years of age, is just taking a longer time figuring out her place in this tennis universe. With the margins already so low with her game, perhaps the mental pressure of being a major champion, of going into matches on big courts with the expectation to win, of being out on tour with the pressure of winning as a means of supporting herself, can contribute to Ostapenko's erratic play.
Everyone is different. And it's obviously too early to write Ostapenko off. She is 21 years old, a lot of people her age are either in college or just starting out in the workforce. She still has plenty of time in tennis to make her mark. Look at Venus Williams, who at 38 years old, just beat Petra Kvitova yesterday at Indian Wells. Ostapenko is clearly still trying to figure out her game, and the expectations that weigh on her game, given that she has won a major.
Yes, Jelena Ostapenko is currently 80th in the race to the Year End Championships, but the season is still so young. And, after all, she is still 22nd in the live rankings.
Jelena Ostapenko will be fine, just give her some time.
Monday, February 25, 2019
ATP Review: Rio de Janeiro, Marseilles, and Delray Beach
This week, instead of previewing a tournament, I am gong to look back on the previous week's tournaments and talk about some of the big headlines that came out of the tournaments. There was three tournaments last week, with first-time winners and the return of an ATP superstar, so there is a lot to talk about!
Rio de Janeiro
The biggest headline of this week in Rio de Janeiro, an ATP 500 event, is that Laslo Djere won the title. It came out that Djere's parents had died, including his father recently, and so this made the title extra special for Laslo. He beat Auger Aliassime in the Final, who also had a breakout week, in two sets, the second being really tight. Djere beat Thiem this week and Auger Aliassime beat both Fognini and Cuevas, all of which were big wins. This was Djere's first title, and to do it with his parents on his mind and in a 500 level tournament is very impressive. Auger Aliassime is only 18 years old, so he has plenty of time to get that first title.
A big story of this tournament is that the top seeds really struggled. In fact, every seed but the fifth seed, Joao Sousa lost. Of those seven other players, only one managed to even get a set, Nicolas Jarry against Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Thiem, Cecchinato, Jaziri, Schwartzman, Lajovic, and Fognini did not even get a set in their First Round losses. Now, of course, this is not quite as shocking as the stats say. Jaziri is not a clay courter and was playing against a good clay courter in Delbonis. Schwartzman had a long week in Buenos Aires and was also playing a good clay courter in Cuevas. Thiem and Fognini were playing against the eventual champion and runner up, respectively. But, still, not a great showing from the seeds.
Also, I want to shout out Hugo Dellien, he has been working so hard on the ATP Challenger Tour, and finally had his breakthrough this week, making the Quarterfinals of Rio. Also nice to see guys like Bedene and Cuevas starting to show form again, although it was a shame that Bedene got injured.
Marseilles
In Marseilles, an ATP 250 event, top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Mikhael Kuskushkin in two tight sets. This is Tsitsipas' second title, one in indoor conditions in Stockholm, and now here in the indoor conditions of Marseilles. The Final was very tight, and Kukushkin was up a break in the second set, was a point away from the double break, and got two points away when serving for the set, and in the tiebreaker. In the first set, Kukushkin had a game point to send the first set into a tiebreaker before he was broken. Tsitsipas does such a good job, in my opinion, of just hanging in there in matches, staying close, and then taking his opportunities as soon as they come. The margin that Stefanos hits his groundstrokes with is also very impressive.
Kukushkin, before the Final, was extremely impressive. Mikhail played against tough opponents such as Shapovalov, Rublev, and Humbert, but didn't drop a set until the Final. It was a great week for Mikhael, but also, I think, for Humbert, who proved his game can thrive at the ATP level, making the Semifinals, and fot David Goffin. Goffin had really been stuggling to find his form this year, but didn't drop a set in his two matches until the Semifinals, where he served for the first set, but lost the match to Tsitsipas. Goffin had a very good win over Gilles Simon in the Quarterfinals.
The second seed in the tournament was Borna Coric, but his loss to Humbert in Borna's opening match is not as bad as it initially appears. Humbert can play extraordinary tennis on a hard court, and Coric, in the quick conditions of Marseilles and having not played in a while, was just a little overmatched against Humbert, but I wouldn't worry about Coric because of this loss. Borna will be fine, I think, but just enjoys playing in slower conditions more.
Delray Beach
Delray Beach, an ATP 250 event, saw Radu Albot beat qualifier Daniel Evans in the Final, with Albot winning in a tight third-set tiebreaker, saving three match points. Like Djere, this was Albot's first title. It's interesting that, for both men, this was also their first Final too, so they were able to win despite the nerves. Albot played so well to win this title. He beat very good players in Kyrgios and Johnson, and his double bagel in the second and third set in the Semifinals against McDonald was very impressive. And then, to have the mental fortitude that he had in the Final, coming back from a set down and saving match points, was spectacular. In fact, Albot won every match this week but his first match, in three sets.
However, Evans was also great this week. He had to fight so hard, not only to get through qualifying, having to come back from a set down in his qualifying match, but also in his First Round. He played defending champion and three seed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Evans came back from a set down, and Tiafoe served for the match in the second set, and had a break lead in the third set. Evans also beat very good players, such as Seppi in the Quarterfinals and second set John Isner in the Semifinals, coming back from a set down against Isner too. Evans destroyed a good player in Lloyd Harris in the Round of 16. losing only two games in that match. Evans will win an ATP title soon, I am confident about that.
The one seed was Juan Martin del Potro. This was very exciting news, because del Potro had been out injured for quite some time, and this was his first tournament back. del Potro had a very good first tournament back, winning a couple matches before losing in a tight third-set tiebreaker to McDonald. McDonald had a good week himself, with that win over del Potro highlighting his Semifinals run.
And so, that is a short recap of ATP tennis last week. With two ATP 500 events, in Dubai and Acapulco, and an ATP 250 in Sao Paolo, there will be plenty more ATP action this week. Roger Federer has already won his first match in Dubai, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets, and Rafael Nadal returns to take on Mischa Zverev in the First Round of Acapulco.
Rio de Janeiro
The biggest headline of this week in Rio de Janeiro, an ATP 500 event, is that Laslo Djere won the title. It came out that Djere's parents had died, including his father recently, and so this made the title extra special for Laslo. He beat Auger Aliassime in the Final, who also had a breakout week, in two sets, the second being really tight. Djere beat Thiem this week and Auger Aliassime beat both Fognini and Cuevas, all of which were big wins. This was Djere's first title, and to do it with his parents on his mind and in a 500 level tournament is very impressive. Auger Aliassime is only 18 years old, so he has plenty of time to get that first title.
A big story of this tournament is that the top seeds really struggled. In fact, every seed but the fifth seed, Joao Sousa lost. Of those seven other players, only one managed to even get a set, Nicolas Jarry against Roberto Carballes Baena. However, Thiem, Cecchinato, Jaziri, Schwartzman, Lajovic, and Fognini did not even get a set in their First Round losses. Now, of course, this is not quite as shocking as the stats say. Jaziri is not a clay courter and was playing against a good clay courter in Delbonis. Schwartzman had a long week in Buenos Aires and was also playing a good clay courter in Cuevas. Thiem and Fognini were playing against the eventual champion and runner up, respectively. But, still, not a great showing from the seeds.
Also, I want to shout out Hugo Dellien, he has been working so hard on the ATP Challenger Tour, and finally had his breakthrough this week, making the Quarterfinals of Rio. Also nice to see guys like Bedene and Cuevas starting to show form again, although it was a shame that Bedene got injured.
Marseilles
In Marseilles, an ATP 250 event, top seed Stefanos Tsitsipas beat Mikhael Kuskushkin in two tight sets. This is Tsitsipas' second title, one in indoor conditions in Stockholm, and now here in the indoor conditions of Marseilles. The Final was very tight, and Kukushkin was up a break in the second set, was a point away from the double break, and got two points away when serving for the set, and in the tiebreaker. In the first set, Kukushkin had a game point to send the first set into a tiebreaker before he was broken. Tsitsipas does such a good job, in my opinion, of just hanging in there in matches, staying close, and then taking his opportunities as soon as they come. The margin that Stefanos hits his groundstrokes with is also very impressive.
Kukushkin, before the Final, was extremely impressive. Mikhail played against tough opponents such as Shapovalov, Rublev, and Humbert, but didn't drop a set until the Final. It was a great week for Mikhael, but also, I think, for Humbert, who proved his game can thrive at the ATP level, making the Semifinals, and fot David Goffin. Goffin had really been stuggling to find his form this year, but didn't drop a set in his two matches until the Semifinals, where he served for the first set, but lost the match to Tsitsipas. Goffin had a very good win over Gilles Simon in the Quarterfinals.
The second seed in the tournament was Borna Coric, but his loss to Humbert in Borna's opening match is not as bad as it initially appears. Humbert can play extraordinary tennis on a hard court, and Coric, in the quick conditions of Marseilles and having not played in a while, was just a little overmatched against Humbert, but I wouldn't worry about Coric because of this loss. Borna will be fine, I think, but just enjoys playing in slower conditions more.
Delray Beach
Delray Beach, an ATP 250 event, saw Radu Albot beat qualifier Daniel Evans in the Final, with Albot winning in a tight third-set tiebreaker, saving three match points. Like Djere, this was Albot's first title. It's interesting that, for both men, this was also their first Final too, so they were able to win despite the nerves. Albot played so well to win this title. He beat very good players in Kyrgios and Johnson, and his double bagel in the second and third set in the Semifinals against McDonald was very impressive. And then, to have the mental fortitude that he had in the Final, coming back from a set down and saving match points, was spectacular. In fact, Albot won every match this week but his first match, in three sets.
However, Evans was also great this week. He had to fight so hard, not only to get through qualifying, having to come back from a set down in his qualifying match, but also in his First Round. He played defending champion and three seed Frances Tiafoe in three sets. Evans came back from a set down, and Tiafoe served for the match in the second set, and had a break lead in the third set. Evans also beat very good players, such as Seppi in the Quarterfinals and second set John Isner in the Semifinals, coming back from a set down against Isner too. Evans destroyed a good player in Lloyd Harris in the Round of 16. losing only two games in that match. Evans will win an ATP title soon, I am confident about that.
The one seed was Juan Martin del Potro. This was very exciting news, because del Potro had been out injured for quite some time, and this was his first tournament back. del Potro had a very good first tournament back, winning a couple matches before losing in a tight third-set tiebreaker to McDonald. McDonald had a good week himself, with that win over del Potro highlighting his Semifinals run.
And so, that is a short recap of ATP tennis last week. With two ATP 500 events, in Dubai and Acapulco, and an ATP 250 in Sao Paolo, there will be plenty more ATP action this week. Roger Federer has already won his first match in Dubai, beating Philipp Kohlschreiber in three sets, and Rafael Nadal returns to take on Mischa Zverev in the First Round of Acapulco.
Monday, February 18, 2019
ATP Rio de Janeiro Preview
Last week, I decided to preview the ATP event in Buenos Aires. This week, because I love clay court tennis, I decided to preview the ATP event in Rio de Janeiro. This event is bigger than Buenos Aires, with 500 points, as opposed to 250 in Buenos Aires. Therefore, the stakes are high and this is a great chance, given the small number of top players playing, to get a big point haul.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
The defending champion is Diego Schwartzman, who beat Fernando Verdasco in the Final last year. This year, the top four seeds are Dominic Thiem as the 1 seed, Fabio Fognini as the two seed, Marco Cecchinato as the three seed, and Diego Schwartzman as the four seed. Cecchinato beat Schwartzman easily yesterday in the Final of Buenos Aires, so Marco is coming into this event with confidence. Dominic Thiem lost to Schwartzman last week in a tight third set tiebreaker in the Semifinals, and Fabio Fognini lost in his first match last week against Jaume Munar. Fognini served for the match, but could not get over the finish line.
Let's dive into some draw analysis!
First Quarter
Thiem starts off his run in Rio against Laslo Djere. Despite being erratic last week in Buenos Aires, with a clay court tournament under his belt, he should be fine against Djere, who, while a decent player on clay, is plying his first clay court event of the season. Thiem is a Roland Garros finalist, I trust him to turn things around.
In the next round, Thiem will face either Thiago Seyboth Wild or Taro Daniel. Daniel struggled in his first clay court match of the season last week, getting torn to shreds by Roberto Carballes Baena. He can't be very confident heading into this one. Seyboth Wild's biggest problem this season has been closing out matches, as he has played great tennis, but just hasn't consistently been able to finish them. In fact, going back to last year, Seyboth Wild is on a five match losing streak, yet every one of those matches went three sets. I think Seyboth Wild gets over the hump with a win over Daniel in a tight match. However, I think that Thiem hits the ball too heavy for Seyboth Wild to handle, and while the Brazilian will put up a fight, I think he loses a straightforward match to Thiem in the next round.
In the other section of this quarter, Casper Ruud takes on Pablo Andujar-Alba. Ruud had a couple nice wins in qualifying, beating Bellucci and Bagnis in straight sets. To win both of those matches without dropping a set shows that Ruud is in good form, something his opponent, Andujar-Alba, cannot say. Pablo has dropped every match he has played this season, including a straight-set loss to Lorenzo Sonego last week. Purely based on Ruud's qualifying wins, and Andujar-Alba's bad form, I am taking Ruud in this match.
Ruud will take on the winner of Guido Pella and Joao Sousa, the fifth seed. Pella has been playing great, making the Cordoba Final and the Buenos Aires Semifinals, however, I have a feeling he could be out of gas against Sousa, who plays consistent, high-percentage tennis. Sousa will grind down Pella in three sets. A match between Ruud and Sousa is hard to call, but I like the experience and tactics of Joao Sousa to overcome Ruud in three sets.
In the Quarterfinals, I like Thiem to beat Sousa. Dominic is just the better player on clay, and will punish the Sousa backhand with is heavy groundstrokes and serve.
Second Quarter
The Second Quarter starts off with Marco Cecchinato taking on Aljaz Bedene. Cecchinato played great last week, not dropping a set and playing nearly a flawless match in the Final, only losing three games to Schwartzman. Bedene has also been playing well, winning a couple matches in Cordoba, and a match in Buenos Aires. However, Cecchinato, with his heavy groundstrokes and great variety, his drop shot was magnificent yesterday, is just playing at a higher level. I like Marco to get through.
Cecchinato will play the winner of Paul Sousa and Thiago Monteiro. Sousa has really struggled, not winning a match this year. Monteiro, on the other hand, won a clay court Challenger earlier this season, but did lose in his first qualifying match last week to Facundo Bagnis. Both players love playing on clay, however, given Sousa's bad form, Monteiro's ability to get his lefty forehand into the Sousa backhand, and how this a tournament in Monteiro's home country, I like Monteiro to get the win. In the next round, I think Cecchinato beats Monteiro. Monteiro will attack the Cecchinato backhand, but I can't emphasize how impressive Marco looked yesterday. Everything was working and Thiago can't keep up with Marco at that level.
The other part of this section starts off with Guido Andreozzi taking on Hugo Dellien. Andreozzi has not won a match since Sydney, however, losing three straight matches, all on clay. This is especially surprising considering Guido's best surface (and Dellien's best surface) is clay. Dellien has had a bunch of solid, but not spectacular results this season, playing every match on clay. Dellien has also come through qualifying, having an impressive straight-sets win over Carlos Berlocq in the Final Qualifying Round. Given the difference in results on this surface this season, I like Dellien to get through.
Dellien will play the winner of Nicolas Jarry, the eighth and Roberto Carballes Baena. Jarry has had a rough time on the South American clay, winning only one set in two matches. Carballes Baena won a match in Cordoba and then didn't lose a set enroute to the Quarterfinals, where he lost to eventual champion Marco Cecchinato. Carballes Baena makes a lot of balls, and is extremely consistent from the baseline, and given that Jarry has been very inconsistent from the baseline, unable to control the ball well, I like Carballes Baena to get through. Then, against Dellien, I also like Carballes Baena to get through. Roberto just has a little more offensive firepower than Dellien, who tends to focus on topspin more than power.
In the Quarterfinals, I think Cecchinato wins. Marco played Roberto last week and won in straight sets, and while fatigue could be starting to take root at this point, I think Cecchinato still has enough in the tank to get the win.
Third Quarter
The Third Quarter starts off with the seventh seed, Malek Jaziri, taking on Federico Delbonis. Jaziri has struggled this season, only winning two matches, and going 1-2 on South American clay, although he has had to play some good clay courters in Berlocq, Cuevas, and Ferrer. Delbonis had a great run in Cordoba, making the Semifinals, but was too inconsistent last week, as Munar forced him to hit too many extra balls in a three set loss. This match will come down to whether Delbonis can keep the ball in the court enough to win, along with whether Federico is able to handle the Jaziri slice backhand. I think this will be an up-and-down match, but think Delbonis is just better on this surface and should get it done.
Delbonis will play the winner of Lorenzo Sonego and Albert Ramos. Ramos played well last week, beating David Ferrer enroute to the Quarterfinals before losing to Diego Schwartzman. Ramos also had a win in Cordoba before losing a tight straight setter to Guido Pella. Sonego qualified in Buenos Aires last week and won his First Round match over Jarry, but lost to Carballes Baena. Sonego's forehand is significantly heavier and more damaging than his backhand, but I think Ramos will be able to hook his lefty forehand into the weaker Sonego backhand. Sonego has a strong serve, but his first-serve percentage must be high if he wants to win this match. I don't think Sonego does enough and Ramos gets it done. Then, against Delbonis, in a matchup of the lefties, I like Delbonis to beat Ramos. Federico has won three of four matches against Ramos, and I think that Delbonis just has a little more force on his shots compared to Ramos.
In the other section of this quarter, qualifier Elias Ymer takes on qualifier Juan Ignacio Londero. Londero won two tournaments ago in Cordoba, but ran out of steam in the First Round against Joao Sousa last week. Even against Sousa, however, Londero's forehand was lethal and he is still a very dangerous player. Londero had two very solid wins over tough clay courters, beating Giannessi and Dutra Silva in straight sets. Ymer had a tougher road through qualifying, beating Domingues and Martinez in three setters, which are also two solid wins. But, given that Londero last summer on clay only lost five games enroute to beating Ymer, how Londero won in Cordoba recently, and how Londero's qualifying run is a little more impressive than Ymer's, I think Juan Ignacio wins.
Londero will play the winner of fourth seed, Diego Schwartzman, and Pablo Cuevas. Cuevas is picking up steam, making the Semifinals in Cordoba and the Quarterfinals in Buenos Aires, taking a set off of Dominic Thiem. Schwartzman just had a tough but successful week in Buenos Aires, making the Final of both the singles and doubles tournament. Given the fatigue factor, a player like Cuevas should be able to take advantage and I like him to beat Scwartzman in this match. Then, between Londero and Cuevas, I think Pablo's variety and his grit in terms of staying in rallies will win him the match over Londero.
I like Cuevas to beat Delbonis in the Quarterfinals. Cuevas is just the much more consistent player, and I don't think his heavy groundstrokes will affect an experienced clay courter in Pablo, who has beaten Rafael Nadal at this event before.
Fourth Quarter
The Fourth Quarter starts off with the sixth seed, Dusan Lajovic, taking on Cameron Norrie. Lajovic struggled last week on serve against Leonardo Mayer, dropping serve four times in the straight set loss. Norrie has had a tough time on the South American clay courts, losing in the First Round in Cordoba, and the Final Qualifying Round in Buenos Aires. Not only has Lajovic beaten Norrie both times they've played, both times last season, but both of those matches were on hard courts, and Lajovic's best surface is clay. Norrie is still perfecting how to effectively use his lefty forehand on clay, and at least to me, feels much more consistent on hard courts than clay. I think Lajovic gets the win.
Lajovic will take on the winner of Jaume Munar and Leonardo Mayer. This should be a close match. Munar's consistency is very impressive, and he is basically like a wall when trying to hit through him, but has the ability to counterattack well. However, he struggled physically towards the end of his brutal, over three hour, match with Guido Pella on Friday. Mayer has a big serve and is solid on clay, but is 1-2 on the South American clay. Both of his losses, to Delbonis and Pella, were in straight sets, however, and his win over Lajovic last week was very solid. Given how Munar was struggling on Friday physically, I think there could be some lingering effects in this week, and I think Mayer wins in three sets. In a rematch of last week, I can't go against Mayer. Mayer won in straight sets last week, and just overpowered Lajovic. Mayer will move on to the Quarterfinals.
Christian Garin will take on Maximillian Marterer in the other section of the draw. Garin had a very long clay court winning streak snapped last week when he lost in the Second Round of Buenos Aires to Marco Cecchinato. Marterer is 1-2 in the South American clay court swing, but looked very impressive in his win over Facundo Bagnis lat week and pushed Dominic Thiem fairly hard in the Second Round. Garin is very hard to beat on clay, but last week showed that he would have some growing pains getting his clay court game above the Challenger level. Marterer played well last week, using his huge lefty serve and lower lefty forehand to overwhelm Bagnis and challenge Thiem. I think Marterer gets the win.
Marterer will play the winner of the two seed, Fabio Fognini and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Auger-Aliassime has struggled since winning a couple matches in Pune to start out the season, only winning two matches since then and losing in the First Round of Buenos Aires to Christian Garin. Fognini has had some struggles of his own recently, losing three straight matches, including his first matches in Cordoba and Buenos Aires. However, this is a 500 level tournament, and I think Fognini should be at full-concentration for this one. He plays well in Brazil, making the Semifinals here and winning Sao Paolo last year. I think Fabio is also much better on clay and should be able to frustrate Felix with his defense. Fognini wins.
In the Quarterfinals, I think that Fognini beats Mayer. While Mayer has won the last two matches on clay, Fognini leads the head to head overall, and on clay, and given that he is fully-engaged, should be able to get enough balls back to neutralize the Mayer serve and force a bunch of unforced errors from Leonardo and get to the Semifinals
Semifinals
My first predicted Semifinals matchup is Dominic Thiem facing off with Marco Cecchinato. Thiem has not looked his best this season, but with every match he plays on clay, I think his level will rise more and more. Cecchinato, despite playing spectacular tennis last week, will start to fatigue at some point, as playing a lot of tennis, especially on a physical surface like clay. If both players play at the level they played last week, I think Cecchinato wins, but I don't think that happens. Thiem wins in three sets.
In the second Semifinals matchup, Pablo Cuevas plays Fabio Fognini. Fognini is 3-1 on clay against Cuevas, and 5-2 against Cuevas overall, with a win over Pablo in Rio de Janeiro in the past. However, watching their current levels, and given that I don't think fatigue will be a factor in this match, However, I think that Cuevas is playing at a high level and is rounding into form. With that said, Fognini should play better, this is a bigger tournament and motivation should be higher for Fabio. And I think his combination of defense and shotmaking should tip the scales just in his favor, winning in three sets.
Final
I predict the one versus two seed, Dominic Thiem versus Fabio Fognini. Thiem leads the head to head 2-1, but it is 1-1 on clay and Fognini beat Thiem in their last match in Rome. I wonder if Thiem, who made the Madrid Final the week before, was fatigued at all in that match, which Fognini won 6-3 in the third set. Thiem also has dropped a combined eight games in his two wins over Fognini. Since I have Thiem playing in the Final, I think he will be playing at a very high level, and I think he just has more power to his game than Fognini. Fognini will defend well, but Thiem is also an elite defender on clay.
At the end of the day, a match like this comes down to who do you trust more. Who do you trust more to hit that winner to end a long rally, to stay in the match mentally when things go awry, to play each point with the intensity needed to win a title, and I trust Thiem more.
Dominic Thiem beats Fabio Fognini in three sets to win the ATP 500 event in Rio de Janeiro.
Monday, February 11, 2019
ATP Buenos Aires Preview
I thought for my next post I would give a tournament preview, and since I love clay court tennis, I chose Buenos Aires. This ATP 250 tournament should be a very good one. In last week's South American clay court tournament, Juan Ignacio Londero got his first ever ATP World Tour title, beating Guido Pella in three sets in the Final. Londero played well all week, attacking opponents with his potent forehand, and playing smart clay court tennis. As someone who's watched Londero climb through the rankings, it was great to see. Pella also played an excellent tournament. Guido had three big wins in a row, beating Ramos, Schwartzman, and Cuevas. On a clay court, beating those three in a row is not an easy feat.
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
This week, there are some big names in the draw. The number one seed is Dominic Thiem, who is playing once again in Buenos Aires and has a title to defend. On his side of the draw, the other big seed is the third seed Diego Schwartzman. Schwartzman struggled last week in Cordoba, getting taken to three sets by Alessandro Giannessi, and then losing in straight sets to Guido Pella. Both Giannessi and Pella are players who are very experienced on clay and were both playing well all week, so the loss isn't as bad as it seems. Still, Schwartzman will certainly be looking to go further than the Quarterfinals this week.
On the other half of the draw we have the two seed, Fabio Fognini. Fognini had a rough week last week, losing to Bedene in his first match. However, Aljaz plays well on South American clay, and you never know regarding Fognini's motivation. However, when Fabio is locked in, he is extremely difficult to beat, especially on clay. The three seed on this half of the draw is Marco Cecchinato. Marco had a great breakout year on clay in 2018, reaching the French Open Semifinals, which included a huge win over Novak Djokovic in the Quarterfinals, and an ATP title in Umag. However, last week in Cordoba, Cecchinato lost to Munar. However, it must be said that Munar played a tactically sound match and was very solid.
Let's look at the draw quarter-by-quarter.
First Quarter
Dominic Thiem has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Bagnis and Marterer in the Second Round. In the other section of this quarter, Arevalo takes on Cuevas and Londero plays Sousa. I have a feeling Thiem will play Bagnis, as Facundo is in-form on the clay, has already played on the courts in qualifying, and is playing in his home county. Thiem will outclass Bagnis in that Second Round matchup, however.
I expect Cuevas to come through the other section of this quarter, as it was clear he was regaining his form in Cordoba. When Cuevas is on his game on clay, he is extremely difficult to beat. I think, for as good as Londero did in Cordoba, I think he will be out of steam in Buenos Aires, so I think Sousa beats him, but loses to Cuevas.
I think the match between Thiem and Cuevas will be close, but I have Thiem coming out of the first quarter.
Second Quarter
Diego Schwartzman has a bye in the First Round and will take on the winner of Andreozzi and Bedene in the Second Round. Given that Andreozzi is totally out of form (winning only two matches all season, one as a lucky loser), and Bedene's history of playing great on clay in South America and his recent form in Cordoba, I ilke Aljaz to take on Diego in the Second Round. Aljaz actually beat Diego in the Quarterfinals of Buenos Aires next year, but I think Schwartzman will play much better than he did in that match last year, and I think he beats Bedene, although it might be tight.
In the other portion of this section, Ramos takes on Dutra Silva and Ferrer plays Jaziri. Dutra Silva played very well in qualifying, beating two good players in Ruud and Norrie. However, in all of his matches against Ramos, he has lost, including two three-set losses to Ramos on clay last year. Ramos has struggled this year, getting his first and (so far) only win of the season over Dellien in the First Round of Cordoba last week. However, I watched most of his match with Pella and he played pretty well, and this is a good matchup for him, as he can get his forehand easily cross-court into the Dutra Silva one-handed backhand. I like Ramos to win that match.
Jaziri has really struggled this season, only winning two matches, but I'm worried about Ferrer's health. He retired in his last match in Auckland, and I'm not sure physically if he will still be able to hang in there for a tough match on clay. Jaziri is also underrated on this surface, and made the Final of Istanbul last year. He also won his First Round match against Berlocq last week, and Berlocq is such a fighter on clay. I think Jaziri beats Ferrer, but I don't see him getting past Ramos.\
The match between Ramos and Schwartzman will be a battle, but Schwartzman is the better player, in a little better form, in front of his home fans. Schwartzman gets out of this section.
Third Quarter
Marco Cecchinato has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Garin and Auger-Aliassime in the Second Round. Garin vs. Auger-Aliassime should be a great match, as both players can play at a very high level on clay. Garin went on a huge run in the clay court Challengers at the end of last season, winning three in a row in Campinas, Santo Domingo, and Lima. In fact, Garin has won 15 clay court matches in a row. Auger-Aliassime has had an average start to the season, and has found a lot of success on clay at the Challenger level, as well. However, I can't go against Garin, given how he has played on clay at the end of last season, and while he did pull out of Cordoba last week, I still think he beats Auger-Aliassime, and I believe that he then takes down Cecchinato, who is a really good player on clay, but who's form was not-great last week, and like I've been harping on, Garin can really play on the dirt.
In other part of this section, Jarry takes on Sonego and Carballes Baena plays Daniel. I like Jarry to beat Sonego. Jarry last year was very good on South American clay, and I think he just was a little rusty on clay last week in his loss to eventual champion Londero. Sonego came through qualifying, which is a plus for him, but I don't see him a way he can overpower Jarry, and he will have to hope that if he can keep getting his serve and groundstrokes to the Jarry backhand, that the Jarry backhand will break down. I don't see Sonego winning, and think Jarry comes through. The Carballes Baena-Daniel match is hard to predict. Carballes Baena has really struggled this season, although he did beat Martin last week in Cordoba. Carballes Baena also has played on clay this year, whereas this will be Daniel's first match on clay. I think Carballes Baena wins in three, but that Jarry overpowers him in the next match and comes through this part of the section.
Jarry will then use his big serve and powerful forehand to end Garin's run in the Quarterfinals in three sets.
Fourth Quarter
Fabio Fognini has a bye in the First Round and will play the winner of Munar-Delbonis in the Second Round. I believe that Munar beats Delbonis. They played last week, and Delbonis won in straight sets, however Munar had many, many break point chances but did not convert. I think that this was a statistical anomaly and I think he will find more success on break points in this match and beat Delbonis. A Munar-Fognini match comes down to Fabio's motivation. I think Fognini will be motivated to not lose two weeks in a row in his first match, and will beat Munar in three sets.
The other part of this section is Lajovic vs. Leonardo Mayer and Pella taking on Cerundolo. Lajovic and Mayer have both had mediocre starts to the season, and are ranked in similar places in the rankings. Both players also have the ability to play at high levels on clay, with Lajovic being the better clay court player by a little. Mayer has the bigger serve though. This is a tough match to predict, but I trust Lajovic's clay court ability and ability to stretch out points and force Mayer to hit an extra ball or two in a lot of rallies, which will force Mayer into more unforced errors. Give me Lajovic in a tight match. Pella, despite being fatigued from last week and taking medical timeouts during the tournament, is just a much better player than Cerundolo, and will win that match. However, fatigue I think eventually gets to Pella and Lajovic will beat him.
I don't trust Fognini at a ATP 250 event to continue to play at a very high level after what happened last week, so I think in a three setter where the first two sets are won easily, but the sets are split, the Lajovic wins in three sets to move on to the Semifinals.
Semifinals
Thiem has won the vast majority of the matches against Schwartzman as Schwartzman just does not have the weapons to trouble Thiem very often. Thiem has the bigger serve and the bigger groundstrokes, and typically, Diego cannot keep up with Dominic. I think Thiem beats Schwartzman in two sets to go on to the Final.
Nicolas Jarry can play at such a high level, especially on clay. His serve and forehand are both so good, and clay gives him the time he needs to set up that forehand well. I think he also overpowers his opponent, attacking the one-handed backhand of Dusan Lajovic and winning in two sets.
The Final will be Dominic Thiem and Nicolas Jarry.
Finals
Dominic Thiem will take on Nicolas Jarry in the Final. The head to head is actually 1-0 to Jarry, with Nicolas winning in two extremely tight sets in Hamburg last year. However, I am still picking Dominic in this match, although I do think it will be three sets. Thiem is just the more reliable player, especially given that he clearly plays well at this tournament, given that he is the defending champion, and given his clay court resume. In a big match on clay, when the opponent is not Rafael Nadal, you just expect Thiem to win. By this time, Thiem will be used to clay again, and I think he will be able to get enough balls back to get a bunch of errors out of Jarry.
Dominic Thiem will be the champion in Buenos Aires!
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